|Subject:||Reporting Statistics--SDA versus LDS|
|Date:||Dec 22 17:59 2002 updated 5/2003|
|Author:||vw (stats on Chile | Mexico | New Zealand | Canada and a link to detailed statistics)|
|This is what the Seventh Day Adventist lists as statistics
on their website for year end 2001:
2000 year end 11,687,229
(6488) other adjustments
2001 year end membership 12,320,834
year end 2001 congregations 51,086
year end 2000 congregations 48,987
net increase in congregations 2,099
Here is what the Morg [Mormon Church] is reporting according to their church news and 2003 church almanac
2000 year end 11,068,861
convert baptisms 292,612
children of record 69,522
[deaths and dropped??? there is no category by the LDS church here. This is the math difference] = (36,477)
2001 year end membership 11,394,518
year end 2000 wards/branches 25,921
year end 2001 wards/branches 26,084
net increase in wards/branches 163
The 36,477 is less than what the SDA is reporting for deaths. Considering that both churches are about the same size it looks like the Morg does not adjust for people who have dropped their membership. Also look at the dismal number of new wards/branches the Morg has for 2001. The year 2002 is looking even worse for the Morg. Only 18 new stakes through December 20, 2002, according to the Church News and 16 stakes dissolved through October 1, 2002 according to the 2003 Church Almanac. The Morg will be lucky to break even. What would one expect for all the time and money the average member puts into the Morg the only thing they get is a lousey temple recommend which allows them to dress up in a Pillsbury doughboy outfit and recite a rote ceremony borrowed from the Masons.
|Subject:||Re: Reporting Statistics--SDA versus LDS|
|Date:||Dec 23 00:17|
|No wonder the Morg is asking church employees to take early retirement. This is only the beginning of further downsizing as the Morg goes into the decline stage.|
|Subject:||SDA is actually much bigger than CoJCoLDS|
|Date:||Dec 23 16:39|
|Just a minor quibble with your statement that the two churches are
"about the same size."
Since SDA's are honest about reporting their statistics, I would say they are about 2.5 times as big as the CoJCoLDS. Realistically, the LDS Church should only be claiming maybe 4M to (maybe at a stretch) 5M in actual membership total.
|Subject:||SDA over 3,000 LDS less than 1,000|
|Date:||Dec 23 18:39|
|Seventh-day Adventists were adding an average of 3,176 new members
each day in 2000, and have experienced increased growth since that time. In contrast, the
LDS Church adds an average of about 800 new members per day, of whom only a small minority
go on to experience meaningful church activity.
SDA accounts for dropouts and disaffected members by dropping them from the numbers. TCOJCOLDS keeps deadbeats and lost sheep on the records forever, only dropping the lost sheep at age 110 (assumed dead). There could be millions on the LDS records where it's been many years (or decades) since an accurate address was known, and nobody is even sure if the member is still breathing.
It's almost a near certainty that active Mormons number only 4 million to 5 million, and the lower number is probably more accurate.
This means that for every one active Mormon, there's about 1,500 earthlings who are not Mormons, and the vast majority of nonMormons are unlikely to ever even consider the possibility of joining "God's only true church."
Most LDS converts have only been to church a few times, and have made no realistic commitment to attend regulary in the future and fork over 10% to SLC. If a requirement was created that investigators must attend 10 times (or 8 times or whatever) before baptism, convert numbers would drop like a rock, and the hocus-pocus illusion of "rapid growth" would disappear forever.
|The implosion is onging. The decline is not just "coming"
the decline is "here" now and in the present.
What's killing progress for the Morg?
Information, information, information!!!!
Lots of books over the past 10 or 20 years.
Signature books and lots of others.
Plenty of magazine articles casting doubt on TCOJCOLDS as a reasonable religion.
Internet sites. Ten years ago, there was practically nothing.
Now look at all the sites to find out about all the solid facts showing overwhelming evidence that JS was a conman and the church is - plain and simply - a fraud!!
Converts (who remain active a year or more) in the USA, Canada, Europe, Australia are down to practically nothing. USA growth is almost entirely from brainwashed kids with 2 morgbots for parents. But birth rate among Mormons is down from what it was only a couple of decades ago.
Think about the big picture:
1. In 1978 they admitted Blacks. If they hadn't done this by the year 2002, TCOJCOLDS would be all but disintegrated and would be known as an obscure racist cult-sect.
2. In 1990, they overhauled the wacko temple ceremony removing much of the offensive nonsense (but leaving the bulk of it, which is Masonic nonsense).
3. Starting in the 1990s, they embarked on a grandiose plan to build dozens and dozens of temples all over the world. The temples were built, but where are all the people?
Despite the 3 events above, LDS "growth" is pathetic today. The percent of new converts who remain active a year or more is extremely low. (10% in some areas, 20% in some areas, maybe 25% in a few areas, and so on).
# of new stakes (Church Almanac 01-02, Church News)
1995 *** 142
1996 *** 146
1997 *** 128
1998 *** 128
1999 *** 89
2000 *** 37
2001 *** 26
It looks like 2002 might be breakeven, or possibly single digit increase. In the April 1980 Ensign, they projected 11 million members and 3,600 stakes by the year 2000. There are now over 11 million members (most totally inactive), but only 2,607 stakes at 12-31-01. They are 1,000 stakes short (of the 1980 goal of 3,600) due to the vast numbers of inactive members and the extremely high dropout rate among the new suckers (aka converts).
TCOJCOLDS IS STUCK AT JUST OVER 2,600 STAKES, AND MAY NEVER FIND ENOUGH ACTIVE CONVERTS TO EVEN REACH 2,700, LET ALONE 3,600.
The end is near. The implosion is ongoing. TCOJCOLDS will not go away, but is gradually headed to where it began an obscure wacky cult, with a few members hopelessly following instructions from church HQ (SLC) and blindly following directions, no matter how ridiculous (sounds like one of the lines from Apocalypse Now).
From 12-31-77 to 12-31-87, the number of LDS stakes increased from 885 to 1,666 which is an 88% increase for the 10 year period. Impressive growth.
From 12-31-87 to 12-31-97, the number of LDS stakes increased from 1,666 to 2,424 which is a 45% increase for the 10 year period. Solid growth, but not as impressive.
In just the years 1996 and 1997, the increase was 274 stakes, which is an average of 137 per year.
Its probable that the days of rapid increase in LDS stakes are gone forever.
What will the stake growth be for the ten years 12-31-97 to 12-31-07 ??? Unless stake growth picks up, it could be only 10% or so. Thus, solid evidence of the implosion exists despite desperate pleas for investigator referrals, every member a missionary, pressure on retired people to enlist as unpaid missionary couples, and so on.
LDS growth rate for the year 1971 was published as 5.5%, with the 2001 growth rate 2.9% (from 11,069,000 to 11,394,000). IMPORTANT >>> This reflects only the published numbers remember that inactives, some deaths and maybe even name removals are not accounted for, so the illusion of rapid growth can be fraudulently maintained.
|Subject:||Comments about death rates and bogus LDS statistics|
|Date:||Dec 23 19:30|
> Here is what the Morg is reporting according to their church news and 2003 church almanac
> 2000 year end 11,068,861
> convert baptisms 292,612
> children of record 69,522
> ??? (36,477)
> 2001 year end membership 11,394,518
> year end 2000 wards/branches 25,921
> year end 2001 wards/branches 26,084
> net increase in wards/branches 163
> The 36,477 is less than what the SDA is reporting for deaths. Considering that both churches are about the same size it looks like the Morg does not adjust for people who have dropped their membership. Also look at the dismal number of new wards/branches the Morg has for 2001. The year 2002 is looking even worse for the Morg. Only 18 new stakes through December 20, 2002, according to the Church News and 16 stakes dissolved through October 1, 2002 according to the 2003 Church Almanac. The Morg will be lucky to break even.
Rounded numbers (nearest thousands):
LDS membership growth (from recent Ensigns):
12-31-99 *** 10,753,000
Increase in children of record *** 81 thousand
Convert baptisms *** 274 thousand
Unknown decrease *** (39 thousand)
12-31-00 *** 11,069,000
Increase in children of record *** 69 thousand
Convert baptisms *** 293 thousand
Unknown decrease *** (37 thousand)
12-31-01 *** 11,394,000
The decreases should be name removals, excommunications and deaths. The number should be a lot higher than reported.
We dont know the number of name removals for sure. But its 100% certain that Greg Dodge in SLC is overwhelmed with work and the numbers are much higher today than in the mid-90s. Some estimate name removals at about 30,000 per year in the mid 90s and increasing to about 80,000 per year presently. But this cant easily be confirmed.
According to the 1999 CIA World Factbook, the USA death rate should be about 8.8 per 1,000 per year.
By the way, the UK was higher at 10.6 per 1,000.
For the 5 million USA Mormons, we expect 44,000 deaths per year. I expect a lower rate for the non-USA Mormons for this simple reason: most are converts within the past few decades, and most converts were young. If we estimated a rate of 5 per 1,000, then that should be 30,000 deaths among the 6 million non-USA members (but it really might be much higher).
Total expected deaths = about 74,000 per year. But in the past 2 years, they only reported decreases of 39,000 and 37,000. And what about the huge number of name removals, and some excommunications? Do they still count them as members, knowing that nobody is allowed to audit the membership records and produce an independent report?
In the 1970s, they reported many statistics, such as number of priesthood holders and death rates. They stopped reporting the number of PH holders because the number promoted to High Priest was so low it was embarrassing. LDS death rates reported were:
1971 *** 4.92 per 1,000
1975 *** 4.36 per 1,000
This actually supports my theory that the current Mormon USA death rate should be close to the national average of 8.8 per 1,000. The rate reported in the 1970s was for the entire church, with the USA rate high and the foreign rate low (most foreign converts were young). Also, the demographics have changed. Currently, the USA has a larger number of older Americans in their 70s, 80s, and 90s. Thus, when combined with a lower national birth rate, the USA death rate is higher today than 30 years ago.
Review of latest LDS annual statistics:
LDS membership growth (from recent Ensigns):
12-31-00 *** 11,069,000
Increase in children of record *** 69 thousand
Convert baptisms *** 293 thousand
Unknown decrease *** (37 thousand)
12-31-01 *** 11,394,000
The unknown decrease of 37 thousand is equal to only 3.34 per thousand.
Remember that number: 3.34 per thousand.
I will now show that its about 99.9999% certain that the (37 thousand) decrease cannot possibly be statistically accurate.
If you look at the 1999 CIA World Factbook website (top), the majority of countries in the world have a death rate of between 5 per thousand per year to 12 per thousand per year. Only a few countries have a death rate of less than 4 per thousand per year. These are mostly middle eastern countries like Qatar, Bahrain, United Arab Emirates, and Jordan. These countries are experiencing rapid population increase, large families, a large population of people under age 21, and good health care, which results in the low death rate.
We must assume that the overall LDS death rate should be somewhere between 5 and 12 per 1,000 (note that the USA rate is 8.8). Lets suppose that the overall LDS death rate is most likely between 6 and 8 per thousand members. Statistically, this means a high probability that LDS deaths during the year 2001 were between 66 thousand and 88 thousand. However, they only reported a decrease of 37 thousand. The decrease of 37 thousand is supposed to include deaths, name removals and excommunications!!!
Obviously, the statistics being reported are totally bogus, and statistically impossible. I wish we knew an accurate number of name removals per year. Its almost certain that name removals and excommunications number in the thousands each year, and could even be higher than 37 thousand per year!!!
Need I go further???? Its a statistical certainty that published LDS growth statistics are highly inflated because deaths and name removals are not being properly accounted for!!!!
|Subject:||Based on the Morg's statistics, there should be an average of 425 members|
|Date:||Dec 23 20:37|
|in every ward and branch of the Morg. Since most branches are probably fewer than 100 members each, this means that the typical ward should have probably somewhere between 800 and 1,000 members. But I've never been in a ward that big. The official statistics seem to be as misleading as everything else in the Morg.|
|Date:||Dec 23 22:13|
>Since most branches are probably fewer than 100 members each, this means that the typical ward should have probably somewhere between 800 and 1,000 members. But I've never been in a ward that big. The official statistics seem to be as misleading as everything else in the Morg.
In places with huge numbers of inactive members (like Chile), it's entirely conceivable that some wards have about 1,200 to 1,500 members on the books (and possibly 2,000 or more) with only about 100 at Sacrament Meetings. Or maybe 800 on the records with 75 or less attending.
In any event, the downsizing in Chile is nothing short of astonishing:
Chile Stakes recently dissolved:
1. Buin Chile Stake, dissolved 28 Jul 2002
2. San Fernando Chile Stake, dissolved 30 Jun 2002
3. San Felipe Chile Stake, dissolved 7 Jul 2002
4. Copiapo Chile East Stake, dissolved 9 Jun 2002
5. Puerto Varas Chile Stake, dissolved 10 Mar 2002
6. Santiago Chile Cerro Navia Stake, dissolved 15 Dec 2001
7. Santiago Chile Fermin Stake, dissolved 26 May 2002
8. Santiago Chile Lo Prado Stake, dissolved 15 Dec 2001
9. Santiago Chile Los Manantiales Stake, dissolved 15 Dec 2001
10. Santiago Chile Penalolen Stake, dissolved 11 Aug 2002
11. Santiago Chile San Joaquin Stake, dissolved 16 June 2002
12. Valparaiso Chile Oriente Stake, dissolved 9 June 2002
13. Valparaiso Chile Playa Ancha Stake, dissolved 9 June 2002
14. Valparaiso Chile South Stake, dissolved 9 June 2002
In the mid-90s, Chile was one of the hottest baptizing nations. TCOJCOLDS created 26 stakes in Chile from 1994 to 1996. However, most baptisms in Chile were most likely done on the Alvin R. Dyer plan.
Alvin R. Dyer, an assistant to the Twelve, vigorously advocated the accelerated youth baptism program. One time, Dyer told European missionaries in 1961 that "you can teach or make the statements of everything that a person needs to know to be baptized in this Church in less than three minutes." Although extreme, this general attitude of accelerated baptisms is pervasive throughout most missions, especially foreign. The quickie baptism approach continues to this day in 2002 in many, if not most, LDS missions.
|Subject:||Thanks. The high rate of inactivity certainly explains it. I think|
|Date:||Dec 23 23:48|
|I think the word "inactive" as it is used by Mormons is
nothing but a euphemism. It seems to imply that the inactives are just lazy people who
have testimonies. But I get the impression that most of the inactives in foreign countries
are people who realized after baptism (instead of before baptism) that the Mormon church
makes ridiculous claims and shouldn't be taken seriously.
They have that famous saying, "many are called, but few are chosen." I think that the motto of the COJCOLDS should be "many are baptized, but few are fooled for long."
|Subject:||stats in Mexico for example...|
|Date:||Dec 24 08:07|
|The following excerpt is from: http://www.mormonstoday.com/010727/N1MormonsMexico01.shtml
'The Republic article observes that it seems odd to see a "peculiarly American institution" in Mexico. In recent years LDS Church growth in Mexico has been strong; the church has now 12 Temples announced or in operation and some 850,000 members, and, the article cites the Deseret News Church Almanac as saying that Mexico has the fastest growing church membership outside the United States. But the article also observes that the 2000 Mexico Census, which asks respondents their religion, counts just 205,229 members. While the article doesn't try to explain the difference, it is most likely due to inactive members....' end of quote
The difference between the official Mexico Census and the LDS church is more than 300%. An error of 10-30% could be accounted for easily enough due to bookkeeping and accuracy of reporting. An error of 300% is an entirely different matter. The Mormon church is clearly lying about how many individuals consider themselves Mormons in Mexico.
I believe the number of people in the world who consider themselves
Mormons is around 4.5 million. The SDA appears to be honest with their stats since they
have death numbers that are reasonable and it accounts for the the number of people who
leave the SDA each year and subtracts those who depart from from their total membership.
The Mormon church does neither - account for normal death rates or subtract those who no
longer wish to attend or participate.
|Subject:||You are right about your stats for the LDS church, link provided|
|Date:||Dec 24 09:06|
is an active member site that discusses the issue of retention problem in the LDS church.
The site also candidly discusses the misleading LDS church stats. His stats match closely
with the stats of MR. X.
Note from Eric: The cumorah site is excellent IMHO, especially since it has been developed by believing Mormons. Their honesty is refreshing.
|Subject:||What is going on in Chile??|
|Date:||Jan 18 19:52|
|A friend of mine who frequents here told me that he read here that
there has been some mass consolidation of stakes in Chile recently. Can anyone verify
I just can't believe it after being there as a missionary from 1992 to 94. Everyone always bragged about the Church doing so well there at the time that it's almost unthinkable to me. Has the # of converts simply gone to near zero??
|Subject:||All is not well in Chile|
|Date:||Jan 18 20:03|
|Here's a link explaining that Apostle Holland has been sent to Chile
to try to deal with the very low activity levels there. the problem is there were a lot of
baptisms but few conversions -- a problem GBH alluded to in general conference.
Cumorah.com has a lot of interesting info about church growth and activity, and not much of it matches the rosy picture painted by the church's publicity machine.
|Subject:||with a Chile connection...|
|Date:||Jan 18 20:08|
|Yes, this is definitely going to happen in Chile, under the
direction of Jeffrey Holland. HIstorically stakes and wards in chile were created and
divided when the numbers--especially of potential priesthood leaders--were simply not
there. It was typical in chile to divide a ward if they had a consistent sacrament turnout
of around 100 (that's counting all the recently baptized kids...). Anyway, Elder Holland
is their to consolidate things in Chile and probably to do away with a lot of questionable
practices local leaders are fond of.
Probably one one five converts remains active in Chile.
In Arica, Chile, Bruce McConkie prophesied 10 stakes of Zion. I got there about 15 years later and there were only two very weak ones, but all the local leaders could talk about was dividing them, and that's what they did.
Chile, like everywhere outside of the Intermountain West, suffers from a major priesthood shortage, not to mention the fact that almost no one pays tithing.
Despite the church's talk about its overseas growth, there are lots of situations like Chile's.
Just curious: how many adult males did you baptize in Chile who you were confident would make contributions to leadership? (Now, divide that numer by five... )
|Subject:||vina del mar 98-00...|
|Date:||Jan 18 20:16|
|which mission did you go to?
in mine, virtually all the active members had been converted in the earlier years of the church's modern presence in chile. it was rare to find active members that joined less than 5 years earlier even though there was usually a steady stream of baptisms. the activity rate is around 10%.
they were very split-happy down there. turning 2 wards into 4 when they should have joined those 2 into 1.
|Subject:||Example of bogus LDS growth - thousands join in Tokyo|
|Date:||Jan 18 21:47 2003|
The story of the bogus baptisms in Tokyo is a good example of all kinds of tricks used even today to boost LDS numbers, while the actual number of truly believing committed converts is pathetically low!!!!!!
Millions of young men in Japan spent their only free time standing around the train stations waiting to get to and from school or their after school tutorials or their tyrannical mothers who force them to study around the clock. They had typically 20 to 30 minutes of free time between train connections.
Some brilliant Zone Leaders thought of a new way to teach the gospel to these young guys while they waited for their trains. They mooched some office space right next to the train station. They broke the conversion process into 10 easy steps of twenty minute meetings daily over a two week course; including an initial introduction, 6 of the 8 missionary lessons (the lesson on Christ and the one on the Priesthood/staying active through church service were ditched), an interview, baptism, and conformation. The real genius was each missionary specializing in one of the steps and having the most experienced missionaries teach the first steps and the least experienced who could not even communicate in that language doing the interview and baptism.
Baptisms in Japan were mighty hard to come by. Typically, at that time, an entire mission of 200 missionaries might get 20 to 40 baptisms a month, mostly young girls. So when this one zone of twenty missionaries started dunking several prized young men every day, it got the mission president's attention. He reorganized the mission, closed several small missionary dependent branches that had taken decades to build and created 9 of these twenty missionary units patterned after the first around the 9 largest train stations in Tokyo.
Soon the baptisms started flooding in. Each unit captured 15 to 20+ new converts per day. At its peak that mission was dunking a stupendous 4,000 a month! This was the miracle all had been praying for. Soon the new member records began to flood the wards and branches. But funny, these young guys never actually showed up to church. The local leaders blamed their own lack of faith in the failure to "keep" any of these new miracle converts active. In disgrace and shame they began to quietly leave the church. One Elder's Quorum President committed suicide. Elder Kikuchi got involved in this up to his ears and the entire process of "eki dendo" had to be stopped before a single year passed. Eki=train station Dendo=proselyting
Missionaries who returned home at the beginning of "eki dendo" had tremendous spiritual experiences to report, but soon they were followed by those who witnessed the near collapse of the church in that part of Japan and the dismantling of the most "miraculous" missionary tactic ever to be launched in the Far East.
|Subject:||a comment about Kikuchi|
|Date:||Jan 19 00:50|
|When I was in Fukuoka Japan (77 to 79), Kikuchi spoke at a
missionary conference in Fukuoka. It was possibly the worst 4 hours of my life (actually a
few hours of intense pain from a kidney stone may have been worse but just barely).
The fool had his wife speak for about a half an hour and then his sermon was an astonishing 3 and 1/2 hours!!!!! It was torture!!!! It was so damned long, that we had numerous intermissions, bathroom breaks and standing to sing "rest hymns." But the guy could flat out talk forever!!!!! unbelievable!!!!!
|Subject:||The beginning of The Truth, for a change; here's why...|
|Date:||Jan 18 23:34|
|Author:||Colonel Thomas Kane|
|The Colonel replies:
Mr. X's analysis drives home the fact that this moment is the moment when COB MUST begin to admit the Church is imploding; slowing rates of growth are one thing, negative rates of growth, another.
Imagine the Church as being, say, the State of Deseret; like its sister states, including California, the Church is facing a cash crunch - asset rich, yes, but the cash is not flowing as before.
The Church's dramatic growth rates in Mexico, Latin and South American, masked the reality that these membership numbers were accounting fictions, which nonetheless required a serious investment for ward buildings, stake centers, etc.
These areas have now become net cash negatives for the Church; all talk of a second temple for Argentina, for example, has dropped from the radar screen.
Chile was the ideal nation for Church expansion into South America; prosperous, and very conservative, it has nonetheless failed to meet COB's ideas of what the Church organization should be.
Along this line, more than a year ago, COB began dropping the idea that a "raising of the bar" was underway; first, and nominally, for missionaries, and in time, for Church membership.
This will be heralded as part of the Great Winnowing, and the Church will implode to a sustainable core of members; having Packer be the main speaker at the recent Priesthood Address simply sent one firm signal to the Church's core membership, the Corridor Mormons - "No more Mr. Nice Guy. If you don't want to be here, and put your shoulder to the wheel, we don't need you, or want you."
The organziational counterpoint to this will come from COB - Hinckley's dreams of Empire have recruited way too many who are not only not sending money to COB, they aren't even paying their own way. Church welfare will become much more difficult to obtain, and the vast army of single parents will not be sustained...
Watch for more of the Wasatch Old-Timers like David Haight at Conference, quoting from 3 Nephi (if memory serves) about the falling away of the weak, and the faithless.
|Date:||Jan 19 00:37|
|Colonel Thomas Kane wrote:
> The Colonel replies:
> The Church's dramatic growth rates in Mexico, Latin and South American, masked the reality that these membership numbers were accounting fictions
Knowledgable LDS members are catching on to the "accounting fictions." Foolish superstitious members like my ultra-dedicated-TBM wife steadfastly cling to the believe of astronomical worldwide growth (focusing on the fantastic increase in number of temples while ignoring the virtual lack of new stakes worldwide).
For example, in marriage counselling, I mentioned that Colorado is roughly 2% Mormons and my TBM wife added this comment: "but it's growing very fast here."
Nothing could be further from the truth. Our part of the Colorado mountains covers over 15,000 year-round residents with sac mtg attendance about 40 or so (sometimes 50). Missionaries have been assigned here regularly for many decades. Where are the results????
>all talk of a second temple for Argentina, for example, has dropped from the radar screen.
Interesting - and we must wonder what the future temple building program will be if they become truly cash-strapped. Grinding to a virtual halt?!?! And they will gradually admit to the implosion and lack of strong growth. In fact it shouldn't be too many years before somebody gets up in Gen Conf and flatly states that TCOJCOLDS is not the fastest growing church. The lack of new stakes in this decade makes this painfully obvious!!
> Chile was the ideal nation for Church expansion into South America; prosperous, and very conservative, it has nonetheless failed
Failed resoundingly. And what will be the net result of apostles in the Phillipines and Chile??? How can they bandaid the obvious problems and apathy among members??
> Along this line, more than a year ago, COB began dropping the idea that a "raising of the bar" was underway; first, and nominally, for missionaries, and in time, for Church membership.
It's all fairly interesting to see the church slowly crumble before our very eyes. It has become a PR game. Damage control. Spin, spin, spin.
In the past they had powerful tools to keep growth going, and jumpstart progress. until 1978, the anti-Black policy held growth in check. 1978 - "revelation" and after a few years "it's behind us now" just like polygamy - they hope it fades from memory or new investigators don't find out.
Then in 1990 they thought the temple changes would improve attendance, and keep more sheep obedient ande believing and not questioning things like the bloody penalties.
Then GBH and his boys envisioned the idea that massive expansion of the temple-building program would keep members faithful and bring more in. This may yet backfire for many possible reasons.
What else can they do? Rest assured they will dream up new ideas. For example, the perpetual education fund - available primarily to poor third-world returned missionaries who are active and pay a full tithe. A somewhat desparate attempt to retain this segment of the nonUSA membership.
> This will be heralded as part of the Great Winnowing, and the Church will implode to a sustainable core of members; having Packer be the main speaker at the recent Priesthood Address simply sent one firm signal to the Church's core membership, the Corridor Mormons -
The great winnowing - Whatever the hell that means, I like the sound of it.
>"No more Mr. Nice Guy. If you don't want to be here, and put your shoulder to the wheel, we don't need you, or want you."
Good - you don't have me to kick around any more. My resignation was submitted on January 5, and it's just a matter of time before an official letter from SLC arrives - one less Mormon on the books to kick around.
>the vast army of single parents will not be sustained...
I have wondered about this - the typical poor single parent convert can easily be a cash drain on the church.
> Watch for more of the Wasatch Old-Timers like David Haight at Conference, quoting from 3 Nephi (if memory serves) about the falling away of the weak, and the faithless.
No matter what happens, there's a scripture to quote and spin things in every direction of the compass. Satan is working overtime in these the last days. Even the very elect will fall. Satan will be more influential in the period just before the second coming. There's no end to the ways they can spin the statistics once they admit that membership growth is flat and soon to decline.
|Subject:||"The Great Winnowing" means...|
|Date:||Jan 19 01:49|
|Author:||Colonel Thomas Kane|
|that the wheat and the tares are being separated out; the "less
worthy" - "less active" members - and "unworthy" - apostates,
true "inactives," the dreaded "intellectuals," all are signs that the
tares - people like "us" - are falling away from the wheat - people like
The Internet is killing off any hope for missionary conversions in the First World, and nobody in the Second World or the Third World matters, save a comparatively few figureheads and token stakes.
The entire focus of the missionary effort will move RAPIDLY in the direction Holland "suggested" - inward, and try to get more for the people who are already active, and to get a little more activity from the "less active."
There is little doubt that the LATEST Church-sponsored website, www.providentliving.org, is designed to catch the growing wave of demand for Church welfare services - remember, this country has lost TWO MILLION JOBS since W. took office - at least SOME of them must be Church members, asking themselves what they've been paying into for all of these years....
That website is designed to make it easy for the Bishopric/RS Leadership to say, "Leave us alone, go there first, and OH, BY THE WAY, you HAVE been paying a FULL TITHE for some time, haven't you?"
In other words, COB is damn sick and tired of all of the single mothers the missionaries recruited asking for yet more help; particularly when The Faithful are finally drawing upon Church welfare....
Norman Angell wrote "The Great Illusion," one of the better national policy books; he proved the myth of the economic viability of Empire.
"Gordon's Follies," those damn white elephant temples that NO ONE outside the Corridor is attending, stand as mute testimony to this. Like embassies from an alien civilization, these things are virtually ignored outside America, with a handful of exceptions.
That's what Mormonism really has become, outside the Corridor - an alien civiliation, with its own loyalites, its own values, and even its own "special" language...
Now, to make this failure look like an achievement, the Church will draw inward, and Boyd Packer will be the face of the Church to the Mormon Corridor, quitly reminding the faithful of their inherent moral and spiritual superiority to the rest of the world....
When The Colonel was a member, he always made great efforts to talk to the missionaries from the Corridor at length; a common theme the missionaries volunteered was this - "Damn, you just wait until Packer takes over; he'll straighten all of the bullshit OUT."
This strongly emphatic phrasing really stood out; this was not the casual banality of the time server, this was a strongly felt belief of the True Believers, all of whom were descendants of the "Trek of '47" families.
It remains The Colonel's firmly held belief that COB will sacrifice the rest of the world - ROTW - to the greater glory of the "Real" Mormons.
Hollands experience in Chile is simply field-testing the Consolidation program; it may be that Monson and COB finally took Hinckley aside, and said, "Give us the checkbook, Grandpa."
Watch Hinckley constructively step aside, and be solely a figurehead, soon.
|Date:||Jan 19 03:49|
|Colonel Thomas Kane wrote:
> The Internet is killing off any hope for missionary conversions in the First World, and nobody in the Second World or the Third World matters, save a comparatively few figureheads and token stakes.
I sincerely hope this is true.
> In other words, COB is damn sick and tired of all of the single mothers the missionaries recruited asking for yet more help;
interesting problem for the boys in SLC
> "Gordon's Follies," those damn white elephant temples that NO ONE outside the Corridor is attending, stand as mute testimony to this. Like embassies from an alien civilization, these things are virtually ignored outside America, with a handful of exceptions.
"Gordon's Follies" - I love it - I hope we can truly find evidence in the future of pathetic attendance at many of the temples ouside of the USA, as well as some in the USA.
I visited the London temple once. It seemed kind of busy.
We visited the New Zealand temple. It is beautiful, but kind of out in the middle of nowhere. There's no chance to move it to the outskirts of Auckland, so I suspect attendance is low. The day we went they barely had enough bodies for a session, and only had a few sessions scheduled per week. From my experience there (about 10 years ago) attendance seemed low.
> That's what Mormonism really has become, outside the Corridor - an alien civiliation, with its own loyalites, its own values, and even its own "special" language...
and it seems like foreign converts rarely know beans about Mormonism, but just like the missionaries and so join to please them, with little or no intention of staying active, and no concern of embarrassment if they drop out.
Compare that to the occaisional high profile USA convert (like Gladys Knight or Thurl Bailey or Ty Detmer-superstar QB or the beautiful wife of Steve Young who is a convert I think) and these people are a bit committed since it would be embarrassing for them to join and then turn around and quit right away.
>"Damn, you just wait until Packer takes over; he'll straighten all of the bullshit OUT."
Packer could easily drive marginal people away
> It remains The Colonel's firmly held belief that COB will sacrifice the rest of the world
An inevitable necessity
|Subject:||Maybe we need a "Recovery from Mormonism" board in Spanish (nt)|
|Date:||Jan 19 03:00|
|Subject:||cumorah.com is well worth reading|
|Date:||Jan 19 03:44|
|The stats on New Zealand are accurate and
up to date so I presume the quality of the rest of the info is the same.
A few months ago I went to all the trouble of going through 10 years of the NZ census figures for the LDS church- and discovered tonight that cumorah.com had already done the work- all the stats are there on their website.
The church has lost 25% of its membership in NZ over 10 years.
Growth is but a dream for them here in NZ- just to maintain their existing numbers looks like mission impossible.
|Subject:||Are you from or living in NZ ??|
|Date:||Jan 19 03:55|
|New Zealand is a fantastic place to go for vacation.
I went with my family twice and had a great time.
We visited North and South Islands both times.
I made a few comments about the NZ temple above under the Colonel's posts - "internet, temples"
|Subject:||activity in New Zealand|
|Date:||Jan 19 03:57|
|I thought a fairly large number of Maoris joined the church over the
Are there a large number of inactive LDS Maori people in NZ ?
|Subject:||Yes- I live in New Zealand|
|Date:||Jan 19 04:24|
|Glad you enjoyed your holiday here!!
I'm not sure why the decline in LDS membership has been so dramatic in NZ.
The church here does have a very large Maori and Pacific Island population- due mostly I guess to those groups being taught they are lamanites and therefore god's chosen people. I haven't been into a LDS church for about 14 years- but back then I would estimate about 90% of the congregation was made up of those two ethnic groups. The LDS church has very limited appeal to people from a european background.
Once the DNA evidence starts to filter through (about pacific peoples being descended from Asia and not the holy land) to the NZ LDS church population I would imagine that the church will be pretty much finished here in NZ.
|Subject:||Canadian census results - religions|
|Date:||May 13 12:18|
|The results of the Canadian 2001 census are out today - of
particular note to us here:
Mormons were up to 104750 in 2001 from 100770 in 1991, an increase of 3.9%, compared with a total population change of 9.9%, from 27 297000 to 30 007000.
50580 of the mormons (nearly half) were in Alberta.
Does anyone know how these numbers compare to the church's claims?
(open the link to the table of "Selected Protestant Denominations")
|Subject:||the more relevant statistic: their 'market share' DECREASED, from 0.369% to 0.349%, which is...|
|Date:||May 13 12:38|
|a relative reduction of -5.5% (i.e., odds-ratio of .945)
Nice going, Missionaries in Canuckland! You're raising the Bar!!
|Subject:||Cumorah.com is interesting|
|Date:||May 13 13:37|
The Canadian 2001 census figures show growth of 100770 in 1991 to 104750 in 2001. Official church figures show growth from 125000 in 1990 to 156575 in 2000 and 160743 in 2002.
Just more evidence that official LDS figures have no credibility as a true measure of real membership.
|Subject:||Ha! I took MY name off. The 3% increase doesn't include me n/t|
|Date:||May 13 20:46|
|Author:||a Canadian person|
|Subject:||On the news tonight|
|Date:||May 14 00:25|
|This census report was an item on the CBC National news tonight. The
fastest growing religions in Canada are all Eastern: Hinduism, Sikhism, Buddism and Islam.
The fastest growing Christian religions are evangelical churches, Baptists, Seventh Day Adventists.... and no, the LDS church didn't even rate a mention! Even in Alberta, the hub of Mormonism in Canada, most people have heard very little about the church.
Recovery from Mormonism - www.exmormon.org
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