Maybe that will wake up the sleepers through the sessions.

--Introduction: Cracks in the Foundation

Several years ago, a prominent RfM poster told me during one of my visits to Salt Lake City that he had it on solid inside authority that the Mormon Church purposely and deceptively erected the new Assembly Building/Conference Center on ground in downtown Salt Lake that it knew, or should have known, contained a major earthquake fault line.

I am not making this up.

The construction of the Conference Center, according to the allegation, was made possible by the strange disappearance of existing and legally-required maps identifying geological hazard zones where an active fault line was located--or at least was possibly located--based on previous geological surveys identifying underground faulting in the area around downtown Salt Lake City.

The construction of the con-job Conference Center is said to have violated established building codes and is purported to have involved deliberate, neglectful "supervision" and "oversight" of the building process--all of which was meant to benefit the client in this case--meaning the Mormon Church.

I decided to do some digging and, in the process, unearthed some disturbing and intriguing information related to the charges.

Let's follow the trail to see if the Mormon Church bruied the the truth while standing on shaky ground.
_____


--Two Reports Warning of a Dangerous Earthquake Fault Lines Running Underneath the Mormon Church's Assembly Building/Conference Center, Based on Geological Fault Line Maps That Reportedly Inexplicably Vanished

Below are two articles on the subject.

*Starting with the first (emphasis added):

“Fault Line Missing From Map,” by Lee Seige, published in the Salt Lake Tribune, 7 December 1997 (emphasis added):

"When a building sits directly on a fault line, a major earthquake not only will shake it, but also literally can rip the structure apart. Salt Lake City and County have banned new buildings on fault lines since the 1980s. So, accurate maps of faults are important.

"BUT A BRANCH OF UTAH'S WASATCH FAULT WAS WIPED OFF MAPS OF DOWNTOWN SALT LAKE CITY BECAUE OF BREAKDOWNS IN THE SYSTEMS OF CHECKS AND BALANCES INTENDED TO PROTECT BUILDINGS AND LIVES.

"Those failures allowed the Salt Palace to be rebuilt between 1994 and 1996 without the required 'special study' to learn if the fault passes directly under the $85 million convention center.

"IF A FAULT IS FOUND BY SUCH A STUDY, CALLED A 'FAULT-RUPTURE HAZARD INVESTIGATION,' A PROPOSED BUILDING MUST BE REDESIGNED SO IT DOESN'T STRADDLE THE FAULT. THAT'S EXPENSIVE IF CONSTRUCTION HAS BEGUN.

"Yet, consultants never did such a study for the Rose Wagner Performing Arts Center on Broadway (300 South). THEY LOOKED FOR AND DIDN'T FIND THE FAULT BENEATH THE LDS CHURCH'S PLANNED 21,000-SEAT ASSEMBLY BUILDING [I.E., THE MORMON CHURCH'S ASSEMBLY BUILDING/CONFERENCE CENTER]; Zions Securities' 19- floor Gateway Tower West at South Temple and Main Street; and the adjacent parking garage under Main.

"THEY DIDN'T INCLUDE FAULT INVESTIGATIONS IN GEOTECHNICAL REPORTS SUBMITTED BEFORE EXCAVATION OR CONSTRUCTION BEGAN ON THOSE THREE PROJECTS.

"'THAT'S IRRESPONSIBLE,' said engineering geologist Bruce Kaliser, a former Utah Geological Survey official. 'These geotechnical professionals must know a horse comes before the cart. PROFESSIONALS CAN GET AWAY WITH A HALF-A***D JOB HERE IN UTAH that would never fly in California 20 years ago.'

"'Everyone is trying to do the right thing, but we need to take a close, hard look at the system,' said Craig Nelson, who was Salt Lake County's geologist during 1985-1992 and reoccupied the job November 1 [1997]. 'It's not working right.'

"University of Utah geologist-geographer Don Currey said it is 'A DEPARTURE FROM RESPONSIBLE PLANNING' THAT THE WARM SPRINGS BRANCH OF THE WASATCH FAULT VANISHED FROM DOWNTOWN ON SALT LAKE COUNTY'S 1997 GEOLOGIC HAZARDS MAP WHEN IT WAS PRESENT ON THE 1989 VERSION OF THE MAP.

"'The best case is it was an unintentional mistake,' Currey said. 'THE WORST CASE SCENARIO IS IT IS REVISIONIST GEOLOGY TO ACCOMODATE SOMEBODY.'

"Disappearance of the downtown fault shows independent geologists should review changes to earthquake hazard maps, said U. seismologist Walter Arabasz, chairman of Utah's Seismic Safety Commission.

"He said there also must be a 'clear mechanism' to ensure fault investigations are conducted by qualified consultants and reviewed independently before construction starts.

"No one knows the fault's exact location downtown. Nelson said. Within six months he will revise the map to make it more accurate.

"UNTIL THEN, HE URGED SALT LAKE CITY TO USE THE 1989 MAP WHEN DECIDING WHERE TO REQUIRE PRECONSTRUCTION FAULT INVESTIGATIONS FOR NEW BUILDINGS; OTHERWISE BUIDINGS COULD BE ERECTED DIRECTLY ON THE FAULT LINE.

"During a single magnitude-7 earthquake, ground on one side of the Wasatch fault rises 6 feet to 9 feet relative to ground on the other side, which drops downward. Thousands of major quakes during millions of years uplifted the Wasatch Range.

"In the south half of the Salt Lake Valley, the Wasatch fault intersects the ground at the base of the Wasatch Range and dips westward beneath the valley. But in the north half of the valley, the fault line is farther west, such as where it runs along 1300 East near the U.

"The valley's northernmost part of the Wasatch fault is even farther west. It was named the Warm Springs fault after thermal springs north of downtown Salt Lake City near Beck Street.

"WHEN NELSON PUBLISHED THE COUNTY'S FIRST GEOLOGIC HAZARDS MAP IN 1989, SOLID LINES REPRESENTED THE WARM SPRINGS FAULT'S KNOWN LOCAION RUNNING NORTH TO SOUTH ALONG THE WEST FLANK OF CAPITOL HILL. DASHED LINES, WHICH WERE BASED ON 1960S AND 1970S MAPS, DEPICTED TWO POSSIBLE FORKS OF THE FAULT EXTENDING FARTHER SOUTH BENEATH DOWNTOWN. AN EASTERN FORK OF THE FAULT RAN ALONG THE BASE OF CAPITOL HILL, THEN SOUTH THROUGH THE ASSEMBLY BUILDING SITE, TEMPLE SQUARE AND CROSSROADS PLAZA. A nearly parallel western fork ran under the Salt Palace and almost to 400 South.

"WHEN THE 1997 VERSION OF THE MAP WAS ISSUED IN FEBRUARY [1997] BY BRAIN BRYANT--COUMTY GEOLOGIST FROM 1990 UNTIL LAST AUGUST--THE FAULT LINES HAD VANISHED FROM DOWNTOWN. INSTEAD, THE WARM SPRINGS FAULT STOPPED AT 700 NORTH, WELL NORTH OF DOWNTOWN.

"THE MAP WAS INCOMPLETE. A 1990 STUDY HAD FOUND THE FAULT CAM AT LEAST THREE BLOCKS FARTHER SOUTH, running beneath Washington Elementary School. BRYANT SAID HE HEARD OF THE STUDY, BUT NEVER GOT A COPY TO CONSiIER WHEN HE CHANGED THE COUNTY MAP.

"At the school, geologists found that during prehistoric quakes, ground on the Capitol Hill side of the fault had moved upward 14 feet to 40 feet relative to ground on the other side. SO MUCH 'OFFSET' DOES NOT OCCUR WHERE A FAULT IS TAPERING OUT. SO THE FAULT MUST CONTINUE FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD OR INTO DOWNTOWN.

"The large offset also shows why planners must consider the risk of buildings being torn apart by earthquake fault rupture. No building sitting on a fault line can withstand more than about 4 inches of vertical offset, even if designed to withstand strong shaking.

"Danger Zones: Fault lines on the 1989 and 1997 county maps show where fault rupture might happen. Fault locations are uncertain, so the maps also show shaded zones called Special Study Areas extending up to 500 feet from fault lines.

"BEFORE A STRUCTURE IS BUILT IN A SPECIAL STUDY AREA, COUNTY ORDINANCE REQUIRES DEVELOPERS TO HIRE A QUALIFED GEOTECHNICAL CONSULTANT TO CONDUCT A FAULT-RUPTURE HAZARD INVESTIGATION.

"Such investigations involve digging trenches, drilling holes or using other methods to determine if a fault passes through the property. Fault investigations range from $1,500 for a home to $5,000 or more for a large building. IF A FAULT IS FOUND, THE PROPOSED BUILDLING MUST BE REDESIGNED SO IT IS SET BACK FROM THE FAULT.

"AFTER THE DOWNTOWN FAULT LINES AND SPECIAL STUDY AREA EVAPORATED ON THE 1997 COUNTY MAP, FOUR GEOLOGISTS AND ENGINNERS AT AGRA EARTH & ENVIRONMENTAL CONSULTANTS IN SALT LAKE WROTE BRYANT COMPAINING THE DISAPPEARNACE WAS 'A SIGNIFICANT ERROR.'

"AGRA, operating under a previous name, found the fault at Washington School in 1990. The letter from AGRA's Greg Schlenker, Jennifer Helm, Jeff Keaton and Bill Gordon said THE FAULT MUST EXTEND EVEN FARTHER SOUTH.

"The letter noted the shrunken Warm Springs fault on the 1997 county map was based on a similar shortened fault on a 1992 map prepared by Stephen Personius and William Scott of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS).

"But when Personius was contacted by AGRA, he said his 1992 map showed only where the fault was obvious on the surface. He and Scott never looked for underground evidence of possible extensions into downtown.

"'We were conservative in a scientific sense but not in a public-hazard sense,' Personius said recently. 'IT'S OBVIOUS WHAT'S ON THIS MAP AND WHAT'S NOT ON THIS MAP IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR DEVELOPMENT. Those considerations we didn't take into account.''

"Personius said he and Scott did their fieldwork for the 1992 map in 1989, and never knew the fault was later found under Washington School.

"BECAUSE CAPITOL HILL ROSE UPWARD ALONG THE FAULT DURING PREHISTORIC QUAKES, SCHLENKER BELIEVES THE FAULT MAY EXTEMD AT LEAST TO THE BOTTOM OF THE HILL, OR NORTH TEMPLE STREET. PERSONIUS AND UTAH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY GEOLOOGIST GARY CHRISTENSON AGREE.

"THAT COULD PLACE THE FAULT UNDER THE ASSEMBLY BUILDING SITE--although it hasn't yet been found there--or perhaps west of it. If the fault is west of that block, it might extend beneath the Salt Palace, depending on how far south it goes.

"Capitol Hill once extended farther south than it does today, but its lower end was buried by sediments deposited by prehistoric sediments on which downtown sits. SO THE FAULT MAY FOLLOW THE BURIED BASE OF CAPITOL HILL SOUTH OF NORTH TEMPLE AND THROUGH MUCH OF DOWNTOWN.

"THREE DECADES AGO, KAILISER MAPPED THE FAULT UNDER DOWNTOWN BASED ON THAT PREMISE. A few years ago, he discovered a spa had been located on 200 South between Main and West Temple in the 1800s--MORE EVIDENCE THAT THE FAULT LURKS DOWNTOWN. Hot springs bubble upward along faults.

"Bryant, who quit as county geologist to teach high-school science in Lancaster, California, said reconstruction of the county-owned Salt Palace triggered his decision to shrink the fault on the 1997 county map.

"On March 25, 1994, after the old Salt Palace was demolished, Salt Lake City development-review supervisor Larry Butcher wrote county officials: 'Salt Palace is located in a known fault area. Ordinance does not allow a structure to be placed over a fault line. Please provide documentation that building will not be located over a fault.'

"Four days later, Salt Palace geotechnical engineer Ralph Rollins of Provo's RB&G Engineering told county officials that because Personius' 1992 USGS map 'indicates that the Warm Springs fault does not pass through the Salt Palace area, we recommend Salt Lake City allow the construction to proceed as scheduled.' The county passed Rollins' reply to Butcher. Construction proceeded.

"Rollins is an engineer AND WAS NOT QUALIFIED TO MAKE SUCH A JUDGMENT ABOUT THE FAULT HAZARD, Kaliser and Nelson said. Rollins said his firm includes geologists.

"The geotechnical report for the new Salt Palace included only soil studies aimed at designing the foundation. There was no fault-rupture investigation, Bryant and Christenson said.

"'It should have been done,' Christenson said. Rollins replied: 'No one asked for a fault investigation.'

"Even though the Salt Palace was in a Special Study Area where fault investigations would be required if the county had jurisdiction, Butcher said city officials felt the requirement was satisfied when Rollins said the 1992 USGS map showed the fault wasn't nearby. Bryant said he became convinced proper procedure was to use the most recent map--the 1992 map. Kaliser scoffed: 'ALL MAPS PREVIOUS MUST BE CONSULTED.'

"Christenson said he and other geologists gave the Salt Palace excavation an 'eyeball' inspection. 'To the extent we could look, we didn't see any obvious faulting. IT DOEWSN'T MEAN IT WASN'T THERE.'

"Bryant said he then decided, as a matter of fairness, to revise the county hazard map to shrink the fault as it was on the 1992 USGS map. If the county used the 1992 map to justify rebuilding the Salt Palace without a fault investigation, 'then developers and private firms should also be able to use it.'

"New Map, Old Map: Bryant finally issued the new county map last February. Until then, the 1989 county map still applied. Indeed, Butcher, Salt Lake City building services director Roger Evans and zoning administrator Randolph Taylor all insist THEY ARE STILL USING THE OLD MAP TO REQUIRE FAULT INVESTIGATIONS BEFORE ISSUING BUILDING PERMITS IN THE DOWNTOWN SPECIAL STUDY AREA.

"BUT GEOTECHNICAL REPORTS FOR THE ASSEMBLY BUILDILNG, GATEWAY TOWER AND THE ADJACENT PARKING GARAGEALL LACK FAULT INVESTIGATIONS. When shown the reports, Butcher acknowledged that after the 1994 Salt Palace incident, the city was satisfied if geotechnical reports on proposed buildings simply addressed the fault issue.

"Nelson replied city officials 'don't understand a two-line paragraph in a consultant's report can totally dismiss the hazard. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE ARE TOO MANY CONSULTANTS WHO ARE WILLING TO DISMISS THOSE HAZARDS.'

"He said that is why cities should ask the county geologist or some other independent geologist to review geotechnical reports by developers' consultants, WHO TOO OFTEN PUT THEIR CLIENTS' PROJECTS ABOVE PUBLIC SAFETY.

"Les Youd, civil-engineering chairman at Brigham Young University, said: 'I'm not sure anyone was trying to pull a fast one, but once one person said, "We don't have to look for it [the fault]" and gave a justification, it became a standard procedure' not to include fault investigations in preconstruction geotechnical reports.

"'WE WERE AWARE SOMEBODY WAVED THEIR HANDS AND THE SALT PALACE FAULT DISAPPEARED,' said Gordon, a vice president of AGRA. As a result, he said AGRA did not do a fault study on the Rose Wagner Performing Arts Center, a block south of the Salt Palace.

"In 1996, AGRA's Gordon wrote geotechnical studies for Gateway Tower West and the underground parking garage. Each report contained a sentence noting the 1989 county map 'indicates potential active faulting in the site area,' but adding AGRA's studies of other parcels suggested the fault wasn't under the tower or garage. '

"Nelson said: ``More should have been done than one sentence dismissing the fault without any evidence.'

"Gordon said AGRA found no evidence of faulting when drilling to design Gateway Tower's foundation, but didn't mention it in the geotechnical report. 'I don't know why. We should have.' He said he later look' at the excavation' and there was no evidence of faulting.'

"PROJECT UNDERWAY: A FAULT INVESTIGATION ALSO WAS NOT INCLUDED IN THE GEOTECHNICAL REPORT FOR THE LDS CHURCH'S ASSEMBLY BUILDING NORTH OF TEMPLE SQUARE. THE REPORT WAS WRITTEN LAST APRIL [1996], AFTER THE COUNTY HAZARD MAP WAS REVISED. SO THE BUILDING WAS NO LONGER IN THE SPECIAL STUDY AREA AND A FAULT INVESTIGATION TECHNICALLY WASN'T REQUIRED.

"U. GEOLOGIST CURREY SAID: 'THE RESPONSIBLE THING FOR THEM TO HAVE DONE IS A FULL GEOTECHNICAL INVESTIAGATION' BEFORE EXCAVATION BEGAN.

"[Mormon] Church officials and consultants have searched for the fault since Assembly Building excavation started. So far, they have looked at 80 percent of the site and 'we have not seen any indication there's a fault that goes through the property,' said Jim Nordquist of Applied Geotechnical Engineering Consultants.

"The northwest corner of the Assembly Building site remains to be examined next spring [1998]. Nordquist and Tom Hanson, Assembly Building project manager, said they doubt they will find the fault.

"If they do, 'we would recommend they stop the project pending further investigations to determine the nature of the faulting,' said Christenson of the Utah Geological Survey. 'It wouldn't necessarily kill the site.'

"The Assembly Building is being constructed to exceed even California-style building codes, which are tougher than Utah's, said Hanson and architect Kerry Nielsen. IF THE FAULT IS FOUND BENEATH THE SITE, 'WE'D HAVE TO EVALUATE THE STRUCTURE AND WHAIT IT COULD HANDLE,' NORQUDST SAID.

"BYU'S YOUD SAID THE UTAH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY SHOULD TAKE 'AN INDEPENDENT LOOK' FOR ANY FAULTING AT THE ASSEMBLY BUILDING EXCAVATION. HE ALSO RECOMMENDED MAKING THE FOUNDATION EVEN STRONGER.

"ARABASZ AND YOUD SAID GEOLOGISTS SHOULD SEARCH DOWNTOWN TO FIND THE FAULT'S PRECISE LOCATION. CHRISTENSON AND STATE GEOLOGST LEE ALLSION SAID THAT WOULD BE DIFFICULT AND EXPENSIVE because downtown has been excavated repeatedly by 150 years of construction, geologists can't dig where buildings exist and the fault likely is buried by sediments.

"SO, UTAH RESIDENTS MAY NOT LEARN THE FAULT'S PATH DOWNTOWN 'UNTIL THE BIG ONE OCCURES,' CHRISTENSON SAID.

"THAT COULD BE ANY TIME. STUDIES FOUND MAJOR QUAKES ON WASTATCH FAULT IN THE SALT LAKE VALLEY HAPPENED AN AVERAGE OF EVERY 1,350 YEARS IN PREHISTORIC TIMES. IT HAS BEEN ABOUT 1,300 YEARS SINCE THE LAST ONE. THE UTAH GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ESTIMATES SUCH A QUAKE COULD KILL UP TO 7,000 PEOPLE, INJURE 44,000 OTHERS AND CAUSE $12 BILLION IN DAMAGE [IN 1997 DOLLARS]."

(http://www.oocities.org/wsimister/fault97.htm , emphasis added)


*Now the second article. (It similarly reports that a fault line underneath the construction site of the Mormon Church's Assembly Building/Conference Center was allowed to irresponsibly proceed without proper attention given to missing-map concerns indicating a possible fault line running below the the excavation area; emphasis added):

“Is Salt Lake City Primed for Destruction?: What Many Salt Lake City Residents Don't Know--Fault Causes suspension of Salt Palace expansion; Experts Don't Know If It Extends Under Existing Building,” by Wayne and Diane Simister, “Utah information & Family Pages” :

“In about 1850, a knowledgeable geologist came into the newly settled Salt Lake valley, and looked at the landscape. A local newspaper quoted him as saying, 'I can't get out of this valley fast enough. This is an earthquake ready to happen!'

“His early findings have only been verified. As more knowledge pours in, the dangers of the Wasatch Front from Brigham City, through Ogden, Salt Lake City, Provo and Levan are now of major concern.

“Furthermore, the fault dips at an angle under the Salt Lake Valley--the largest population concentration in Utah. When the fault slips, the energy force will more likely be directly focused into Salt Lake City.

“If this weren't enough, Salt Lake City is built upon a sand and gravel lake bed fill. A large earthquake will liquify the soil--buildings will sink and topple into the quicksand-like soil. But there is a much bigger and serious concern. The sand and gravel soil turns into a convoluting shaking mass of jelly. Such soil magnifies the shaking.

“Estimates are, that should a 7.0 or greater earthquake hit Salt Lake City, no building will be left standing, earthquake proof or not. No building could withstand the violent contortions the land will make. Some displacements could easily repeat the earlier 20-foot displacements found during research excavations along this fault line.

“Are the Utah residents in denial? Are we simply uninformed? Or are we being misled? Only one local newspaper, the Salt Lake City Tribune, called attention in December, 1997, that the portion of the Wasatch Fault which geologists in an earlier study had determined ran under downtown Salt Lake City, WAS SUDDENTLY MISSING IN A NEW RELEASE OF THE FAULT MAPS IN 1997! Utah geologists were in shock at the omission.

“The rapid construction in the Salt Lake valley is in complete denial to the dangerous facts pointing to an earthquake of very large magnitude, undoubtedly going to strike in the not too distant future. Armed with the latest current research data by geologists, common sense would discourage any high rise type construction in the Salt Lake Valley. Japanese studies have indicated single story structures are the only safe retreat during a large earthquake disaster such as is poised here. However, none of this knowledge has been realistically applied to construction or construction codes. IN FACT, AS IN THE CASE OF THE SALT LAKE AREA FAULT MAP BEING ALTERED, SOME EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUGGEST THE ALTERATION WAS DELIBERATELY DONE IN ORDER TO FAVOR THE CONSTRUTION OF CERTAIN BUILDINGS IN DOWNTOWN SALT LAKE CITY.

“At a recent meeting of the officials for the Salt Lake City Public Schools, the urgency of the problem was again emphasized regarding present schools and future schools. One of the statements published was that they were very busy and couldn't take on such a problem right now. Such careless attitude is inexcusable.

“Now, the latest news reveals that one arm of the fault erased from the maps has been found. It was found just as shown on earlier maps--running under the Salt Palace. This is Salt Lake's largest convention center. Only during excavations to add an addition to the Salt Palace was the fault re-discovered. EERILY, THE SECOND ARM OF THIS DANGEROUS FAULT RUNS UNDER THE NEW LDS ASSEMBLY HALL, NOW UNDER CONSTRCUTION. THIS WILL BE THE LARGEST ASSEMBLY HALL OF ITS TYPE IN THE WORLD.' THIS ONE HASN'T YET BEEN DISCOVERED!! . . .

"Chart showing frequency of 6.5 and greater earthquakes along the Wasatch front. Salt Lake City is due for an earthquake "at any time.”: http://waynesimister.mysite.com/fault99.htm “

"Old Salt Lake City Fault Map Showing Faults Under City: http://waynesimister.mysite.com/cgi-bin/i/slfaults.gif

(http://waynesimister.mysite.com/notknow.htm , emphasis added)


*Further Developments [Below are reports on two additional articles on the subject of earthquake fault lines in Salt Lake, written by staffers of the Mormon-owned Deseret News,. Both articles conspicuously fail to address concerns over the possibility of a fault line running underneath the Mormon Church's new Assembly Building/Conference Center].

*The first article: “Fault Found!, from the Deseret News,” by Jason Swenson, 8 January 1999;

[Introduction]: “One of two faults intentionally omitted from recent building maps of Salt Lake City has been officially 'found.' One branch of the Warm Springs Fault--a part of the larger Wasatch Fault which was 'inferred' on earlier maps by geologists -- was unearthed in recent construction at the Salt Lake City Salt Palace.

“IT HAS NOT BEEN DETERMINED IF THE ERASURE OF THOSE TWO FAULTS ON THE MAPS WAS DELIBERATE AND PLANNED. . . . PLANNED SO THAT CONSTRUCTION IN SALT LAKE CITY COULD GO UNRESTRICTED AND UNQUESTIONED.

“THE OTHER INFERRED BRANCH OF THE WARM SPRINGS FAULT HAS BEEN SHOW TO RUN UNDER THE CURRENT MASSIVE CONSTRUCTION OF THE LDS MORMON ASSEMBLY HALL, UNDER THE MORMON TEMPLE GROUNDS, AND FURTHER SOUTH INTO SALT LAKE CITY.”

[The Deseret News article follows]:

“An unwelcome reminder of the Wasatch Front's seismic past has temporarily suspended construction of the expansion of the Salt Palace Convention Center.

“Geotechnical engineers recently discovered a small tectonic fault in the 25-foot-deep construction excavation site south of the Salt Palace (100 S. West Temple). The fault line is visible about halfway between West Temple and 200 West.

“County officials opted Wednesday to shut down excavation and construction of the expansion for 30 days to allow further studies of the fault by the project's geologic consultants and project designers.

“A second opinion on the fault has also been commissioned, Salt Lake County Commissioner Brent Overson said.

"'This is a public safety matter; we want to look at all our options,' Overson said.

“Depending on the findings of the ongoing study, those options could range from abandoning the current Salt Palace expansion construction site to simply building around the fault.

“The Salt Palace expansion was expected to be completed in July of 2000.

“What is not certain is if the fault extends north into the existing Salt Palace Convention Center building. The fault was discovered under about 25 feet of fill dirt and appears to be at the surface of native soil. Geological study was not conducted that deep during the excavation of the first phase of Salt Palace construction.

“Lee Allison, director of the Utah Geological Survey, said the geologic feature discovered at the expansion site may be the southern tip of the Warm Springs Fault, a branch of the Wasatch Fault.

"'I think we feel pretty confident that (the fault) is under the existing Salt Palace and continues north,' Allison said.

“Geologist David Simon, the consultant who discovered the fault, said the geological studies of the first phase were 'diligent and prudent,' adding the project managers did all they could to identify any geologic problems.

“The current Salt Palace building was designed to seismic zone 3 standards, which reportedly means it would remain standing in a Richter scale 7 earthquake.

"'We upgraded the steel in the (Salt Palace) exhibit hall to accommodate what was seen in the Northridge earthquake,' said Salt Palace project manager Ken Ament.

“Although the existing Salt Palace is designed to withstand shaking, it is uncertain how the building would react if there was a rupture along the fault, said Allison, acknowledging that he is a geologist, not a structural engineer.

“Excavation teams plan to dig trenches closer to the existing Salt Palace building to see if the fault extends that far north.

“The fault is considered small because it appears displacement is only about one to three feet, Simon said.

“Geologists are concerned about the fault's liquefaction features. When liquefaction occurs, soil and sand behave like dense fluid rather than a wet solid mass during an earthquake, assuming quicksand-like properties. Liquefaction occurs when soils that are granular or sandy, with a loose density, are waterlogged and are subjected to seismic activity.

“A fault is considered active if it is less then 10,000 years old. Although carbon dating is needed to confirm a fault's age, Allison said preliminary evidence suggests the Salt Palace fault is active.

“Allison, who applauded Salt Lake County officials for being upfront about the fault, said he would still rather be in the Salt Palace during an earthquake then many older area structures built away from a fault.

“Temporarily suspending construction of the expansion project will not be costly in the short run, Overson said. The halt will cost about $300,000, less than 1 percent of the project.

“Long-range costs can only be determined after gathering the findings of the ongoing study.

“Ament said dealing with faults is an unavoidable aspect of construction work along the Wasatch Front, saying several Salt Lake-area buildings are built on fault lines.

“The $47.5 million expansion project is expected to add about 200,000 square feet of exhibit hall, ballroom, circulation and support areas to the Salt Palace. Six hundred underground parking stalls are also planned.

“The Salt Palace Convention Center, including the expansion, is expected to house the main media center during the 2002 Winter Games. If the expansion could not be built, some redesign would be needed to accommodate the thousands of journalists expected to cover the Games, said Salt Lake Organizing Committee spokeswoman Shelley Thomas.

"'It would make things a little tighter, but we can make it work,' Thomas said. “

“UPDATES:

"Ignore Fault -- "Salt Palace Work Can Continue." Salt Lake County, the owner of Salt Palace, hires own consultants. Consultants say these are merely "liquefaction-induced faults." Utah State and Salt Lake County geologists not invited to review or challenge the information furnished by consultants.

"Second consultant claims fault DOES run under Salt Palace and construction should NOT continue. However, Salt Lake city commissioner says construction WILL go ahead since he "knows" fault is not there! Salt Lake Tribune, Saturday 4/17/99 “

(http://waynesimister.mysite.com/fault1.htm , emphasis added)


*Now, the other article: “Wasatch Quake is Due Anytime : Geologists Say Temblors Come in Historic Cycles,” Deseret News, by Ray Boren, 18 January 1999, under “Utah--A Place Waiting for an Earthquake to Happen!: Two Deseret News Stories . . . Tell the Deadly Story That Someday Will Happen; Fault causes suspension of Salt Palace Expansion, Experts Don't Know If It Extends Under Existing Building."

It reads:

“Salt Lake area appears to have major quakes every 1,200 to 1,300 years. And Brigham City area may be the most overdue for a quake.

“Until some 18 million years ago, says M. Lee Allison, director of the Utah Geological Survey, the western portion of the North American continent was being shoved east in a collision with the tectonic plate under the Pacific Ocean.

“He compares the result especially the Great Basin's compressed pattern of mountain ranges and valleys seemingly ad infinitum across Nevada and western Utah to an accordion.

“Or, better still, a throw rug.

"'It's like when you push a rug with your foot it folds,' he said.

“But then the titanic foot eased up. Like a gradually settling rug, 'a thousand miles of continent has started to relax,' Allison said.

“To those of us in Utah and to our neighbors in the Great Basin, that means an occasional earthquake.

"'It's said that 18 million years ago, Reno and Salt Lake were 75 miles closer than they are today,' he said. “The state geologist of Nevada says four acres a year are being created” in the Great Basin province between the Wasatch Front and Sierras. He's arbitrarily assigned it to the Utah/Nevada border and wants to arm wrestle or something to assign it.'

“At the same time, some force deep within the Earth, perhaps an arc of magma deep beneath the mantle, is pushing upward beneath us, adding to the complex geology of the interior West, he said.

“The Wasatch Fault, stretching about 240 miles from Malad, Idaho, to Fayette in Sanpete County and home to about 1.6 million people, has several segments. The five central portions the Brigham City, Weber-Davis, Salt Lake City, Provo and Nephi segments are the best researched.
“In the 1980s, the U.S. Geological Survey and Utah Geological Survey employed a scientific 'SWAT' team approach' to dive into the seismic past, bolstering crews, mapping the faults, digging a series of trenches to better document and understand them and calling upon a variety of high-tech seismic measuring techniques.

“Much of what is known about the Wasatch Fault today, and particularly the fracture's past 6,000 years, comes from that intensive effort.

“Just what do we know or suspect?

“A few of the central Wasatch segments revealed cycles of surface-rupturing earthquakes, usually a temblor of 6.5 on the Richter scale or higher. The Salt Lake segment, for instance, seems to have been the most regular, experiencing major quakes every 1,200 to 1,300 years four times over the past 6,000 years.

“Ominously, the last such event in the Salt Lake Valley was about 1,200 to 1,300 years ago.

“The Brigham City segment, too, showed a pattern, one that ended more than 2,000 years ago.

"'Some people think that's the most overdue,' Allison said. 'There's some concern that stress is really building up there.'

“Many people tend to think damage from a big quake will be concentrated along the known faults. That's not necessarily so, he said.

"'Everyone along the Wasatch Fault is subject to some danger,' Allison said, including fault slippage but also shaking, landslides, slope failures and liquefaction.

“For one thing, faults aren't even and angular, like the edge of a block or a table. Most apparently curve possibly two, three or even 10 miles beneath the ground. So an earthquake's epicenter ground zero could actually be under the center of the Salt Lake Valley.

“For another, the valleys along the Wasatch Front are former lake beds they were, until 12,000 years ago, the bottom of Lake Bonneville, a creation of the vanished Ice Age. So most communities strung along I-15 and its motorway tributaries are sitting not on top of bedrock but upon unconsolidated "fill" rocks, soil and sand.

“When water tables are high or soil is saturated, such material can liquefy, or temporarily act like a liquid, during the vibrations of a really big quake.

“A detailed map of geologic hazards in Salt Lake County, including dashes and dots representing known and inferred faults, brands patches of the valley according to their potential for liquefaction, from VL for 'very low' to H for 'high,' with 'L-low' and 'M-moderate' in between. Territory along the high benches, for example, tends to be rated 'very low'; spots near the Great Salt Lake and along the Jordan River seem to get the 'H."'

“Utah records about 700 earthquakes every year, but only a half-dozen are of a Richter magnitude of 3.0 or greater. Destructive, surface-breaking tremors of 7.0 to 7.5 have not occurred within historic times but are believed to rattle the Wasatch Fault about once every 150 to 350 years.

“The relative quietude along Utah's quake corridor is nothing to be reassured by, Allison said. 'I think it's misleading. People say, “Hey, I've never experienced a big earthquake. My grandfather never had an earthquake. So we're pretty safe here.'”

"'We've never had a major earthquake in the time Utah has been settled,"'Allison said. 'But it's going to happen. The stresses are building up and at some point the rocks are going to fall.'”

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/674748/Wasatch-quake-is-due-anytime.html?pg=all

**********


--CONCLUSION: The Wasatch Front is Ready to Rock and Roll but the Mormon Church Appeared Willing to Roll the Dice with ITs Members Lives

To repeat, the Wasatch Front is a dangerous place to shake and quake. Its vulnerability and, in particular, that of Salt Lake City is extremely high.

As Sarah Ann Grow Leichty noted in herMasters thesis (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, 2003), entitled, “Planning for Earthquakes in the Wasatch Front”:

“The threat of a major earthquake along the Wasatch Front is one that cannot be ignored. Approximately 75% of Utah’s 1.7 million people live within 15 miles of the Wasatch Fault’s several segments . Geologists have come up with many different estimates predicting the likelihood of an earthquake. They estimate that the probability of a major earthquake over the next 50 years is between 5 and 25 percent or more.. One study published in the Journal of Geophysical Research in 1996 stated that there is a 30 percent probability of a magnitude 7 or higher earthquake during the next century . A study by the Utah Geological Survey estimates that there is a 57 percent probability of a magnitude 7 earthquake along the Salt Lake segment of the Wasatch Fault during the next 100 years. The University of Utah Seismograph Stations estimates a 25 percent chance of a major earthquake in the next 50 years .

“Whatever the probability of a major earthquake, the assessment made by Grove Karl Gilbert of the U.S. Geological Survey in 1883 still holds true, 'It is useless to ask when this disaster will occur. Our occupation of the country has been too brief for us to learn how fast the Wasatch grows; and indeed, it is only by such disasters that we can learn. By the time experience has taught us this, Salt Lake City will have been shaken down.'.
'
“There is a long history of seismic activity in the Wasatch Front. The beautiful mountains that characterize the region are largely the result of seismic activity. Strong earthquakes have occurred about every 350 years for the past 6,000 years, although the last quake with a magnitude of 7 or greater occurred about 600 years ago near Provo . Seismic activity is not restricted to the past. Every year an average of 500 mild earthquakes occur in the Wasatch Front region. The Wasatch Fault is what is called a normal fault or a dip slip fault. When an earthquake occurs, the fault slips in a vertical direction with the mountains rising relative to the valley floor. During a magnitude 7.5 earthquake, vertical displacement of as much as 10 to 20 feet could occur The widest deformation tends to be on the down-dropped side of the fault. The zone of deformation created by a normal fault is asymmetrical and much wider than the deformation caused by a strike-slip fault, such as the San Andreas Fault. . . .

“The Wasatch Fault is made up of several segments and encompasses the urban areas of Salt Lake, Provo and Ogden. A powerful earthquake could occur on each of these segments. Considerable damage from strong ground shaking could occur up to 50 miles from the epicenter of the
earthquake/ A powerful Earthquake could result in soil liquefaction, landslides, and rock fall. Valley floors could also become permanently tilted, which could lead to significant flooding in urban areas from the Great Salt Lake and Utah Lake

“The geology of the Wasatch Front further compounds the earthquake threat. The ancient Lake Bonneville covered much of the Wasatch Front region, which resulted in soft lake sediment being deposited on the valley floors. The urban areas of the Wasatch Front are built upon this soft lake sediment. Of particular concern, given the geology of the area, are amplified ground shaking and also liquefaction . . . .

“The degree of ground shaking that occurs is not simply a result of the magnitude of an earthquake. An area underlain by soft lake sediment will experience greater surface effects than an area underlain by rock. Kyle Rollins, a BYU geotechnical engineer, estimates that the ground shaking during a major earthquake in the Wasatch Front would be comparable to the ground shaking manifest on California’s most vulnerable areas, such as the edge of the San Francisco Bay, which is underlain by soft fill. Ivan Wong reached a similar conclusion in a study for the Utah Geological Survey. He stated that a magnitude 7 earthquake in Salt Lake City could cause “one of the most severe instances of ground shaking ever experienced by a metropolitan area” in the United States . Liquefaction can occur in an earthquake of magnitude 5 or greater where water saturated sandy soils exist. When shaken, the ground liquefies and acts as a fluid This may significantly damage buildings by causing them to sink or tilt. Slope failures may also result. Liquefied soil on even gentle slopes may move. . . .. During a 100-year period areas categorized as 'high' . . . have a 50 percent probability of having an earthquake strong enough to cause liquification. Much of the downtown area and the western part of Salt Lake City are highly vulnerable to liquefaction.

“"Land use in Salt Lake City makes its buildings even more susceptible to damage in a major earthquake. According to Kyle Rollins, 'Salt Lake City is built exactly the wrong way given its geology . . . The taller structures in the downtown area are located on deep, soft soil deposits, which are most likely to cause damage to tall buildings. Many of the structures on stiff shallow sites on the edge of the basin are low-rise buildings, which are most vulnerable to the ground motions produced in stiff shallow soils." In Salt Lake City, critical facilities such as hospitals, schools and high occupancy buildings have been located on or near fault traces. West Valley City conducted a seismic Vulnerability assessment, which found that many critical facilities such as bridges, highway overpasses, power substations, water storage tanks, water lines, sewer lines and civil defense shelters needed retrofitting.

“The casualties and financial cost resulting from a major earthquake along the Wasatch Front could be significant. Building damage alone in Salt Lake, Davis, and Utah counties in a magnitude 7.5 earthquake is estimated to cost $4.5 billion by the University of Utah Seismograph Stations. This figure represents approximately 20 percent of the total economic loss that could occur. . A study by the Applied Technology Council estimates a magnitude 7.5 earthquake in Salt Lake County would cause direct losses of $9 billion to $15 billion. . When indirect losses are taken into consideration, the cost increases to $11 billion to $18 billion. Federal estimates for the number of casualties that could occur in a magnitude 7.5 earthquake range from 2,300 to 24,000 people. Smaller earthquakes could also cause considerable damage. A magnitude 6.5 earthquake along the Wasatch Front could cause $2.3 billion in damage, while a magnitude 5.5 earthquake could cause $830
million in damage.

“In recent years the Wasatch Front has experienced rapid growth. This trend is projected to continue into the future. . . . Utah [e]stimates [are]] that [the population along the Wasatch Front] . . . will grow to 2.7 million residents by 2020 and to 5 million by 2050. If growth continues to occur in hazardous areas the estimates for loss of life and damage will only increase. . . .

“Awareness and recognition of the seriousness of the issue are a major problem in motivating citizens and public officials to take action. Because no powerful earthquake
has occurred in the Wasatch Front during the last 150 years, people do not take the future earthquake hazard as seriously as they should. . . . M. Lee Allison, the director of the Utah Geological Survey, warned that, 'Nothing will change unless a major landslide or earthquake kills people and causes huge economic losses, awakening landowners, developers and politicians to the threat of building on unsuitable site.' . . .

“Making the necessary repairs to ensure that a building is strong enough to withstand an earthquake is not inexpensive. . . . If the risk associated with an unsafe building can be passed off to others, a building owner may not be motivated to do anything about the risk. . . . .

“ . . . [T]he earthquake risk along the Wasatch Front should not be ignored. . . “

(“Planning for Earthquakes in the Wasatch Front: A Masters project submitted to the faculty of the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill n partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Regional Planning in the Department of City and Regional Planning [2003], pp. 6, 7, 9, 10, by Sara Ann Grow Liechty, https://cdr.lib.unc.edu/indexablecontent/uuid:233d0b40-8e13-41b7-a1a8-5a04f9477b3aground)

While the Mormon Church is said to have “worked extensively to ensure the safety of its buildings,” and has, in recent years, adopted a “policy [that] requires the structural strengthening of buildings whenever they are remodeled or reroofed” and uses “higher standards than those required by state law” (ibid., p. 44), what about those earthquake cracks crouching beneath the foundation?

LDS Inc. seems to think that this mountain of facts is made from a mole hill. So, it went ahead and erected the Assembly Building/Conference Center in downtown Salt Lake City under mysterious circumstances where warning maps pointing to existing or suspected faults zones underneath their Edifice to Nothingness simply disappeared. Kinda like Moroni's conveniently “poofed” Book of Mormon plates and Abraham's evaporated papyri.

Damn the members' health and safety. Full speed ahead. (Oh, and please enjoy Conference while we're at it).

Joseph Smith was a peepstone-guided treasure hunter. The Mormon Church is a look-the-other'way, no-fault finder.

A match made in the deep, dark bowels of the earth.

Bow you head and say, "What rumbling? I don't hear any rumbling. . . . WATCH OUT! THE ORGAN PIPES ARE TIPPING OVER!"



Edited 12 time(s). Last edit at 10/04/2015 09:49PM by steve benson.

Gee, I wonder where the Utah faults are?

Oh, here they are:

http://www.quake.utah.edu/EQCENTER/LISTINGS/UTAH/utah_history.gif

But let's pretend they're not under/around Salt Lake. 'Cause the Lard will protect us anyway.

Mormonism had enough faults already

+1

Yeah, a 6.0 earthquake is really exciting.

Some of us like to live dangerously and have a 80,000 seat football stadium smack dab on top of the Hayward Fault - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/California_Memorial_Stadium

That's going to be 7.0 when it rips - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hayward_Fault_Zone

Too bad we'll probably get blown out by Utah next week.

I saw those fault maps & once made the mistake of voicing concern to some of my ward members back when I was still in. I was told in no uncertain terms that I needed to check myself before I wreck myself, because God had chosen that very site himself and it was a dedicated building, therefore it was one of the safest places to be in an earthquake.

So anyway, I followed the suggestion and checked myself right out of TSCC.

+1

Dallin told Steve and his missus to quit fault-finding and now look what it's come to.

The Roman Pantheon withstood some seriously severe shaking over centuries but the dome never cracked.

The great and spacious roof on the other hand actually collapsed before it was dedicated.

A timely temblor would readily bring down the house at the Hincko Hipocracydome . . . . . and God forbid if there were a packed house..

It would be a fitting end of TSCC if it fell - literally - in a massive earthquake.

I wonder if there is anything that can be done to hasten 'the big one'...

I'd like to be around to witness the calamity.

Sampson agonistes, checkmate.

Is that why he's a tard ?

Could that splain why he gets deleted more often than me and you put together?

"'We've never had a major earthquake in the time Utah has been settled,' Allison said."

Depends how you define "major." Utah has in fact experienced one large quake in its settled history, on November 13, 1901. It was centered around Beaver, but the shaking was felt from (N-S) SLC to St. George and (W-E) Panaca NV to Moab. I don't think a retroactive Richter measurement was ever made, but from the newspaper accounts it had to be at least a 6.

I read most of SB's message and looked up information on geologic faults in Utah, looking specifically for info on the Warm Springs fault.

While there is history of repeating every x thousands of years and we are over due for one, doesn't mean it's going to happen in our life time.

If I remember right the Yellowstone super volcano has a cycle of 600,000 years and it's 100,000 years over due.

You roll the dice and take your chances.

One can worry yourself to death over something you don't have much control over, or you can live your life taking reasonable precautions.

If you believe in the scriptures, "Watch therefore, for you know neither the day nor the hour."

The chances of dying while in the conference center when the big one hits is a lot less likely than you getting hit by a car while crossing the street in front of the conference center.

. . . Jesus returned in your lifetime?

Seismographs, combined with the historical geological record, provide ample evidence of regularity and causation of earthquakes--although the science of precision earthquake forecasting is still maturing.

A. "Can We predict Earthquakes?

"Scientists have tried lots of different ways of predicting earthquakes, but none have been successful. They have a pretty good idea of where an earthquake is most likely to hit, but they still can't tell exactly when it will happen.

"However, the probability of a future earthquake can be calculated, based on scientific data. Scientists at the US Geological Society (USGS) estimate that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the San Francisco Bay area over the next 30 years is 67%.

"It's good to know if earthquakes are probable, so that residents can prepare. It would be better to predict exactly when earthquakes will occur.

"Why can't we predict earthquakes?

"So far, scientists haven't been able to find a signal for earthquakes - there is no obvious sign to say that an earthquake is coming very soon. Vibrations can be detected just before an earthquake occurs, but this doesn't give enough time for people to escape.

"The processes that cause earthquakes mostly occur far below the Earth's surface. There are many tectonic plates - sections of the Earth's crust that rub together and cause earthquakes - and their interactions are complex. This makes earthquakes very hard to study.

"Will we ever be able to predict earthquakes?

"Scientists at USGS and other organisations are working hard to developing methods which will predict earthquakes. Hopefully, scientists will eventually find a way to predict earthquakes precisely, which will save many lives."

("Can We Predict Earthquakes?", at Planet Science, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=8&cad=rja&uact=8&ved=0CEIQFjAHahUKEwjuw-7Zo6zIAhVDrD4KHaHBCfM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.planet-science.com%2Fcategories%2Fover-11s%2Fnatural-world%2F2011%2F03%2Fcan-we-predict-earthquakes.aspx&usg=AFQjCNHKv6soWpwllZgCy47qld-ZbLV5Og&bvm=bv.104317490,d.cWw)
_____


B. "Can Earthquakes Be Predicted?

"Although it is known that most global earthquakes will concentrate at the plate boundaries, there is no reliable method of accurately predicting the time, place and magnitude of an earthquake. Most current research is concerned with minimising the risk associated with earthquakes, by assessing the combination of seismic hazard and the vulnerability of a given area.

"Many seismic countries, however, have research programs based on identifying possible precursors to major earthquakes. This includes the study of dilatancy, how rocks crack and expand under the increased stress associated with the earthquake. Some major earthquakes, but not all, are heralded by the occurrence of foreshocks. which can be detected by dense local monitoring networks. Other instruments can measure changes in the levels of radon gas, electrical and magnetic properties, velocity changes of seismic waves and changes in topography. Long term monitoring and examination by these sensors is required as some or all of these factors may change due to the opening of cracks prior to the earthquake.

"All attempts to predict earthquakes have, however, been generally considered as failures and it is unlikely that accurate prediction will occur in the near future. Efforts will, instead, be channelled into hazard mitigation. Earthquakes are difficult or impossible to predict because of their inherent random element and their near-chaotic behaviour."

("Can Earthquakes be Predicted?", Brisish Geological Survey, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=12&ved=0CGEQFjALahUKEwjuw-7Zo6zIAhVDrD4KHaHBCfM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.earthquakes.bgs.ac.uk%2Feducation%2Ffaqs%2Ffaq19.html&usg=AFQjCNFzZOWgqtyfJO__sCDKSMs-ABR6uA&bvm=bv.104317490,d.cWw
_____


C. "Is Earthquake Prediction Finally a Reality?"

"In the meantime, many scientists, including several at the USGS, dismiss the entire concept [of earthquake forecasting] as being either implausible or impossible. Getting to the bottom of the controversy and explaining why the team at QuakeFinder thinks they’ve accomplished what no one else has been able to is an interesting story in the messy nature of scientific research. . . .

"Serendipity shows the way during Loma Prieta quake

"While scientists [have] concentrated primarily on potential seismic precursors to quakes, anecdotal reports of other odd goings-on before earthquakes are common. As far back as ancient Greece there have been reports of animals behaving strangely before a quake. Recent research in Germany has even documented ant colonies modifying their behavior pre-quake.

"Eyewitness videos of light emerging from the ground prior to an quake — so-called 'earthquake lights' — inspired QuakeFinder founder Tom Bleier to see if he could track down the electromagnetic signals responsible and possibly use them to predict earthquakes. His homebrew efforts weren’t sophisticated enough to pick out anything interesting, but he was re-energized by an event that occurred nearby on the central California coast.

"In 1989 a Navy-funded Stanford magnetometer looking for ultra-low frequency (ULF) signals recorded sizable electromagnetic (EM) activity prior to the nearby Loma Prieta earthquake. As a result, Bleier was inspired to redouble his informal efforts. After persevering on his own, ten years later Bleier began QuakeFinder — a formal effort to build a network of sensors that could record EM pulses and other possible precursors to earthquakes.

"Its initial sensor units were fairly simple, but the current tenth generation model includes sensors for various frequencies of electrical and magnetic disturbances, as well as ionization, seismic and other sensors. One of the hardest parts of collecting this type of data is filtering out irrelevant information caused by nearby trains, trucks, electric cattle fences and even weather patterns. In addition to selecting isolated sites and burying the magnetometers, the data from the network of sensors and satellite data are combined to allow selecting out signals that might be related to potential earthquakes.

"How QuakeFinder works

"While traditional earthquake monitoring relies on seismographs, which measure physical movement in the ground, it turns out that sufficient stress on rocks causes them to emit magnetic pulses. The currents created can be massive, around 100,000 amps for a magnitude 6 quake, and over a million amps for one that is over 7. The ultra-low frequency component of those pulses is capable of traveling miles through the rock, making it feasible to measure with a network of monitoring stations.

"While these short pulses occur on a regular basis — perhaps ten or so on a normal day — QuakeFinder sensors have recorded unusually high concentrations of them in the hours and days prior to earthquakes — well over 100 per day — even after filtering out spurious pulses from nearby lightning or other large electrical sources.QuakeFinder pre-quake sensor data shows increase in magnetic pulses

"While it isn’t clear exactly which of several possible theories explain the magnetic pulses, their existence can be verified by stressing a large rock to the breaking point, like in the pictured experiment QuakeFinder conducted by stressing a seven ton boulder until it fractured. However, the large, dry, boulders used in experiments aren’t the same as the brine-soaked rock at earthquake depth. So there is plenty of room for speculation on how things are really working miles down where a typically quake gets its start.

"Magnetic pulses and increased ion activity caused by a large boulder under stress prior to fracturing

"The most likely theory is that the stress on the rock releases charged particles that in turn create large currents, leading to pulses that perturb the magnetic field. The pulses can also reach the surface, causing the appropriately named earthquake lights, as well as increased ionization and infrared radiation — which QuakeFinder has added to its list of monitored conditions. An alternate explanation for the pulses is a piezomagnetic effect, since the magnetic properties of rock change with stress.

"The Parkfield disappointment

"It’s one thing to model a quake in a chunk of rock, but a completely different thing to validate a theory in the field. Fortunately for us, but unfortunately for quake hunters, even though earthquakes are happening nearly all the time somewhere, they don’t happen all that frequently in easy to monitor locations — even in California where QuakeFinder placed its initial sensors. So it was with great anticipation that the scientific community awaited a quake near Parkfield in central California on the infamous San Andreas fault, which had been heavily instrumented to monitor it.

Based on the history of large earthquakes near Parkfield in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966, as well as the similarity of the seismic activity that preceded each of them, scientists were drooling to analyze what they were predicting would be another quake prior to 1993. Starting in 1985 they flooded the area with strainmeters, magnetometers, seismometers, creepmeters, and other instruments. Then they waited — and waited. Finally, eleven years late, a quake occurred in 2004. Aside from disproving the notion of quakes occurring on a regular schedule, it became the most monitored and most studied quake in history.

"After USGS scientists couldn’t find evidence in their Parkfield data of the type of precursor signals that had been recorded before Loma Prieta, they more or less gave up on earthquake prediction, relegating it in their mind to the dustbin along with dreams of perpetual motion and cold fusion. However, their analysis (and that of at least one PhD candidate who ground through it for his dissertation at Berkeley) didn’t explain all the signals that were recorded, and certainly didn’t use the pulse-counting techniques that QuakeFinder is using now to find precursors.

"QuakeFinder comes of age: Finds patterns of pre-quake magnetic spikes

"In several recent earthquake, QuakeFinder’s sensors have recorded increased numbers of pulses as much as two weeks before the event. While Stellar and QuakeFinder still have a lot of work to do in order to create software that can automatically detect these surges, its results are certainly promising. This chart from a QuakeFinder sensor shows the massive increase in magnetic pulses prior to an earthquake in Tacna, Peru:

"QuakeFinder sensor station at Mount Palomar

"Effective quake forecasting is about more than science
QuakeFinder sensor station at Mount PalomarTo be useful in warning people about potential quakes, forecasts have to be fairly specific as to time and place. Most of us in California live with the knowledge that there will be “another big one” on the Loma Prieta fault, but aside from building stronger structures, that knowledge isn’t very helpful on a day-to-day basis. Knowing that a quake will happen in a few days, or even a few hours, and which areas are likely to be affected would be much more useful. QuakeFinder’s early results show the potential for that type of accuracy, but it will take a lot more sensors, automated detection algorithms, and sophisticated filtering approaches to remove false positives generated by other sources to make useful forecasts a reality.

"Even harder than getting the science right will be the politics of creating a meaningful and effective system to react to the data. Like any warning system, if it causes unnecessary panic it’ll be blamed for the loss of time and work. Conversely, if it is too conservative in sounding the alarm, then it will be considered ineffective. Having a warning window as much as two weeks in advance is also a blessing and a curse. It gives cities quite a bit of time to respond, but could also cause massive disruptions for what might turn out to be a minor event. Residents of hurricane and tsunami zones are familiar with the problem of false alarms.

"Going beyond the simple notion of evacuating areas about to be hit by a major quake, accurate forecasting could usher in entire new ranges of products — the way storm shutters get deployed in advance of oncoming hurricanes, imagine ways to protect building occupants from shattered glass, for example. Relief supplies and repair crews could also be deployed in plenty of time for fast response. All in all, if QuakeFinder is successful, it will usher in a a new and lifesaving era of earthquake safety."

("QuakeFinder: Is earthquake prediction finally a reality?," at Extreme Tech, https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=9&ved=0CEoQFjAIahUKEwjuw-7Zo6zIAhVDrD4KHaHBCfM&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.extremetech.com%2Fextreme%2F153197-quakefinder-earthquake-prediction-technology&usg=AFQjCNH8yuhn8nhDdlPl39JyyPhLwvlcfw&bvm=bv.104317490,d.cWw



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/2015 03:35AM by steve benson.

I think it's pretty cool that people are working on technology to help predict natural disasters. I've had enough class work and other training in geology, soil stability to know it's all pretty much an inexact science because of the universal variability of the components that make up the ground we stand on.

A vast amount of study and research is going on out here in Washington primarily on lessons learned from the eruption of Mt. St. Helens. This is tied to the other large volcanoes in the Cascade range from Washington, Oregon and northern California, including Mt's Baker, Rainier, Adams, Hood, Jefferson, Shasta, etc.

All these volcanoes are directly related to the sub induction zone just off the coast of the three states. Apparently it isn't if a large earthquake hits, it's when it hits, there will be major damage that will be comparable to the tsunamis that Japan and the other Asian countries has experienced in recent years.

Too bad the funds for the needed research and study to make predictions has to compete with other needs of our society such as health insurance, etc.

Steve, thanks for the discussion on this item, besides your depth of the history of LDS, it's nice to know you have other areas of knowledge and interests.

. . . failing to comply with city ordinance by building an edifice (without benefit of a necessary fault line hazard map) that straddles an active fault line. Stay focused.



Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/2015 03:56AM by steve benson.

I worked as the contractor doing the 2000 Expansion of the Salt Palace and the Rose Wagner. We tried to get the contract for the Meganacle, but the 3 Stake Presidents got it.

I mention the above for reference only. I don't have first hand knowledge of any shenanigans on the design of any of these facilities. I do know that codes and maps change to reflect the current best knowldge. Lines on a fault map are guesses, not precision. Designers use the referance maps as a guide to help determine how robust to make a building.

I know the meganacle is a big stout box half buried in the hillside. It has a hugh concrete footing under it. It's designed to ride out "the big one". I wouldn't be concerned about its safety. The engineers were the best available. That's one of many reasons why the project was so over budget.

I wouldn't want to be in the COB or the SLC Temple or any of the Sh*tty, I mean City Creek towers when the big one happens.

. . . should be used in surveying and ultimately deciding on an acceptable constructions site. This was not done in the case of the Assembly Building, since an earlier and critical fault line map conveniently disappeared, with the Mormon Church commencing excavation and construction without the benefit of its use.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/2015 03:37AM by steve benson.

That hill that the conference center is built on is the fault scar from previous earthquakes.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/06/2015 03:46AM by steve benson.

Considering how big the Universe is certainly there are other Civilizations.
Okay this is true but I am not going to spend millions and bright minds looking for a signal which has turtle's speed.

I would build the place myself on fault line, not because I disrespect Geologists.
To faithful believer It doesn't sound any different than "Second Coming is imminent".

Don't people in Utah, California and other major fault line areas just learn to live with the risk? New Madrid could go and destroy Memphis, TN at anytime. And a hurricane could dump 25 inches of rain on central South Carolina. You can only do so much to prepare yourself for events like these. I guess the alternative is just to abandon Utah, California, Memphis, and the entire southeastern part of the United States because a natural disaster might occur. And east of the Rockies a tornado could wipe you out at any time.

What are the odds that a major quake in SL county would be blamed on declining church participation? "Pay your tithing! You don't want another earthquake, do you?"

It was bad enough they raised the Deseret Gym, reportedly where (male) nude swims were sometimes allowed...


just sayin'

Here is a link to a map showing the main faults in this area. http://files.geology.utah.gov/online/pi/pi-3.pdf

There are houses built all along the fault traces in SLC. Sure you shouldn't build on top of it, but that hasn't stopped thousands of people from doing so. A fault breaks in a zone, not in the same place each time.

They may have modified a map, but everyone knows there are faults in this area. Downtown sits at the end of the SL segment and some of the best exposures of the W fault are less than a mile north of the conf center in No SLC near the gravel pits and hot springs.

The bigger issue is construction, not location or zoning. The old houses and apts downtown and in the aves have old rock foundations that will fail. The conference center, capital and tabernacle may be the only buildings left standing after Mag 7+. The tabernacle and capitol were retrofitted to withstand a 7, but the temple will likely experience damage or crumble.

LDS Inc is showing leadership by retrofitting the tabernacle to withstand a 7.