It's just an observation, anecdotal, but also based on all the signs of what I'm seeing. It hit me tonight.

First, yes we often have these discussion about whether the Mormon church will end soon or die out after another few hundred years. Good discussions and thoughts, I like the opinions.

I've come to my own opinion. The decline in membership is accelerating so much in the last few years that I believe in a short time there will be so many changes and defections--youth that stop attending, "resignations," older members dying out, and virtually no converts--that there it will be clear this cult is flaming out.

How soon? Maybe as short at ten years, maybe as long as twenty years. For either it's going to be clear that this cult is on the out in our lifetime.

My own family--two parents, one who died last year and the other who rarely attends and the other who didn't know that that the three-hour block changed to two hours until last month (clearly, he doesn't attend much or shows up for sacrament and leaves); my three kids, only one who is active and only because he was forced on a mission that he currently serves; four children of my parents, only one who is active and believes.

The defections from and declines in new members joining the church are accelerating, to the point that I don't believe the church can fake numbers enough by counting inactives or resigned (or those who haven't reached 110 years) to show growth. To the point that their 16 million members will become--mostly faked--10 million or less in the next ten years.

That is enough to show, based on accepted calculations of activity rates, that it's more like 3 million actually going to church. Die hards or idiots.

It's going downhill fast. The acceleration over the past five years along will increase over the next ten years. Let the remaining members be weirdos like they were in the 1800's and society will progress without them. Continued scandals and new information surface, it will reduce their numbers further. They are done as far as I can tell.

The exmo subreddit has 124,000 registered users. Certain not all accounts are active. I just checked and 1,400+ were on Reddit.

the mormon subreddit (How dare they keep that name!!!) has 11,300 members and 73 are on Reddit right now.

Does this mean anything? Probably not, because mormons mostly don't need to connect online with mormons, what with having the church connecting with them waaaaay too much as it is.

But the growth of r/exmormon is not a sign that bodes well for la iglesia mormona.

I opined the other day that we're probably not too far away from having one ward in each of the European countries, united within the European Stake.

I'll admit...saw a post on the Reddit site (exmos) that spurred this /:

Good info and thoughts there. I agree that not all are joining or expressing thoughts online, but the increase is meaningful.

I think the church will continue to shrink, but I don't think it will ever die away completely, at least not in my lifetime.

There are too many people who are willing to hold on to it. The church will also continue it's slow metamorphosis into a more mainstream "Christian" look and feel, while holding on to just enough of the past to keep old timers in place.

Keep in mind too that the church is a corporation. Even if the non-profit arm, i.e. "The church" does die away, the for-profit business will continue. And, honestly, there's too much money to be made and sheltered in the non-profit arm for the corp to get rid of it. Churches are profitable businesses, they will keep it as long as they can.

So, smaller, different, but still around for a long time to come.

I agree, completely. However, I think it's very soon that they can't deny the collapse.

>"I think it's very soon that they can't deny the collapse"

Absolutely. I think it won't be too long before the church has to do something that makes it obvious that they are bleeding members. Perhaps elderolddog's single European stake.

It will be interesting to see how the church handles the obvious shrinkage when they no longer can ignore it. The top leaders aren't the best at admitting problems. How they spin it could be fun to see. "Please ignore the very large iceberg, we have the band playing for you on the upper deck..."

1. More members are leaving at Sacrament meeting now than before 2 hour change.
2. Old time members seldom bear testimonies anymore. Very few people when they bear testimony say the know Church is true or BoM is true.
3.I know that temple sessions in Edmonton are only about 50% filled if that.
4.I can't figure out what missionaries are doing these days.
5.In Edmonton they created 2 Spanish branches last month. That was for the Spanish speaking people or members in Edmonton. Hence the other wards got smaller. Yet the SP made a pronouncement Church is growing Edmonton because of this.
6. I talked to a friend a couple of months ago and asked him how his temple work calling was going. He said he was released. I said are you sad about that? He shocked me by saying no and saying he has more time now for other things. This guy is or was a TBM.
7. I think active Mormons today are less happy than when I was a kid attending Church.

I think missionaries target students and immigrants in some places now. Lonely and isolated people find a community through the church.

Everything you guys have said on this thread makes sense to me. There are places where the church is still doing well, but the rot around the outside is moving inward.

And I couldn't agree more that active Mormons are no longer as happy as they once were. There's little left to be happy about.

Which European country has the most Mormons per capita?

England / Great Britain I'm guessing.

GNPE1 Wrote:
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> Which European country has the most Mormons per
> capita?
>
> England / Great Britain I'm guessing.

I looked this up recently and this appears to be the case (although don't call the Scots, Irish and Welsh Engliah unless you want a fight!)

This is mainly a language thing IMHO, but it still doesn't explain their almost complete absence from the Republic of Ireland.

The LDS has always been a curiosity there, and I don't think most Britishers know much about Mormons other than the door to door thing and polygamy. Maybe the Osmonds if they're old enough.

I'm curious: in Wales would they have something like the Wddyyfygriddigddgcrmomfrignianffiddigg North Stake?

Too many vowels? :-) :-) :-)

A quick look on Chapel Locator reveals -Llanelli, Merthyr Tydfil, Pontypridd, Cwmbran, Aberystwyth, Rhyl, Gaerwen -in Wales alongside names which are a bit easier for most English speakers to say. None of these are probably pronounced much like most non-Welsh would imagine.

Would most of us agree that the church's bureaucracy will need to be trimmed as a result of declining membership activity?

I am hoping that if changes need to be made (and it's pretty obvious) that it's going to happen from the lower levels of upper church leadership (Q of 70 and area.regional prez). I think it's painfully obvious that the upper fossils don't listen very well or don't want to know that the mormon ship continues to sink.

What I think may start happening is a massive trimming from the Q70 as the church streamlines its management. I think there's a glutton of church departments that are going to lose paid positions. I think a possible mutiny (defection) may make a lot of waves as they are told that they are bo longer needed as leaders and are directed to return to the rank and file membership.

Well that would be very satisfying to me to see the church trying to explain how trimming the top is the result of a growing church. :D



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/04/2019 01:18AM by messygoop.

I'll be honest...I understand your reasoning about them cutting back, but I don't care what they do. They will cut positions, I'm sure.

But the bottom line is that when they decline in membership very soon, their explanations will be all over the place--including their leadership--but it won't matter. The obvious will be clear they are way, way, down.

There will be a heavy emphasis on the 2nd coming and "even the elect will be deceived..."

There will be this shrinking church full of saints congratulating themselves for their devotion. They won't lose one bit of pride in themselves as the numbers fall.

messygoop Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Would most of us agree that the church's
> bureaucracy will need to be trimmed as a result of
> declining membership activity?
>
> I am hoping that if changes need to be made (and
> it's pretty obvious) that it's going to happen
> from the lower levels of upper church leadership
> (Q of 70 and area.regional prez).

I think the brethren created layers of middle management to better insulate themselves from liability. "It was 't us, it was the Area President."
So I think they would be reluctant to dissolve those layers.

Honest question: The number of members has nothing to do with a religion's tax-exempt status, right?

As long as the Mormon cult can keep its real estate holdings tax-free, and have barely enough members to clean and maintain the buildings, parking lots, and landscaping, everything will be fine.

The amount of money the cult makes from tithing money is probably less important than the cult makes it out to be. LDS, Inc, is a business, and as such, it will do just fine, depending on the economy. Even if the corporation loses tons of money on ugly malls with overpriced stores, and overpriced condos no one wants to live in--it will be fine.

With their Mormon-owned media. and fancy Madison Avenue advertising and promotion, and political power, LDS, Inc. will continue to fool everyone into believing that it's a religion. From what I've learned, Mormonism has never been a real "religion", but only a money-grabbing cult. Unfortunately, cults are legal in the US.

Even if the US passes a law that says "religions" must PROVE they are charitable institutions, by opening thier books to the public. We who DO PAY TAXES should be able to see whether or not a "religion" is actually helping the poor, or donating to real charities, etc. Even if the Mormons have to pay taxes, they still would be a viable corporation, and the CEO's could still afford their travel and limos and lodges and resorts, etc. The real estate section of LDS., Inc. might have to sell some of its promo real estate, but it would be no big deal.

I'm seriously curious...is there a magic numberof members that makes a little cult group a bona fide "religion"? I know a lot of "corporations" that are just one guy. JS had a handful of relatives and a couple of neighbors to make up the original Mormon church.

"is there a magic numberof members that makes a little cult group a bona fide "religion"?"

It's all generational. Mormonism is actually huge. It may be far far smaller than most major religions, but it is also far bigger than a lot of fringe groups out there like Scientology and things we've never heard of because they're so tiny. Mormonism is a cultural force of sorts, and it isn't a Heaven's Gate type group.

The old line is that when a heresy develops a heresy it becomes a religion. Well that happened with Mormonism long ago, and its breakaway sects have developed breakaway sects of their own.

The LDS is not going to disappear in the next ten years (excluding the possibility of a global catastrophe)... There is no evidence for it disappearing that quickly.

It is certainly not the church I knew ten years ago, or twenty. Things have changed. I believe one of their fatal mistakes was GBH's policy of building temples everywhere. Many regions could operate with far fewer - notably Japan, Australia and even Utah itself. They must cost a lot of money to run.

It's building temples that gives TSCC someplace to put its money as a tax shelter. Without buildings the church would have too much money sitting around in bank accounts unaccounted for and therefore it would be taxable.

By building temples it can hide its wealth in its buildings.

I learned that from watching a Scientology show by Leah Remini.

That's how Scientology hides its assets is by building churches. Its the buildings they don't have to claim as taxable assets. If it were money holdings, it would.

Plus, the land and property holdings as commercial investments build equity. So its investment building properties even or whether or not there is any activity there. Such as the Scientology empty church building structures. They sit on city lots, largely unused. But because they're investment tax shelters, that is their purpose, whether or not the lay people use them.

With Mormonism there will be some use of the church temples making them look as though they're "earning their keep." But the church corporation knows what they're really doing is investing church holdings in commercial real estate.

I think they act as tax shelters in some places and not others. I know in the UK that temples are NOT tax free since they are not open to the public. I am not sure whether other countries think along the same line. The French state takes a low opinion of Mormonism but gives it grudging tolerance.

Some of the temples are now in unstable areas. At least one of the African temples had to be shut due ro political instability... And Hong Kong is currently erupting just now as its citizens protest the Beijing dictatorship... It remains to be seen if that one will stay open.

Jordan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The LDS is not going to disappear in the next ten
> years (excluding the possibility of a global
> catastrophe)... There is no evidence for it
> disappearing that quickly.

I don't believe it will "disappear" in the next ten years, either. Did you think that's what I wrote?

TX_Rancher Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Jordan Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > The LDS is not going to disappear in the next
> ten
> > years (excluding the possibility of a global
> > catastrophe)... There is no evidence for it
> > disappearing that quickly.
>
> I don't believe it will "disappear" in the next
> ten years, either. Did you think that's what I
> wrote?

"How soon? Maybe as short at ten years, maybe as long as twenty years. For either it's going to be clear that this cult is on the out in our lifetime"

It appears that Jordan makes things come out his way...

In your OP, you said,

"It's going downhill fast. The acceleration over the past five years along will increase over the next ten years."


Jordan remarked, around 2:00am my time today, that,

"The LDS is not going to disappear in the next ten years (excluding the possibility of a global catastrophe)... There is no evidence for it disappearing that quickly."


There was no linking this revelation to your OP. But he seems very certain that the record needed to be set straight. He's mature and successful in business.

Correct.

I prefaced the "maybe as short as ten years" with "it will be clear this cult is flaming out." Not gone, disappear, ended, done, etc.

Maybe he's making his own observation, unrelated to mine, but by coincidence with a ten year time frame. I was just curious if he misread my original post or (worse) was twisting my words.

I read that as saying that you thought LDS extinction would be completely obvious in ten years' time. I can't see that being the case. I mistakenly thought the ward I was baptized in was dying many years ago, but it is still there, still retains quite a large building and gets a similar attendance I believe. (Although compared to the population size of this place, its attendance is pretty poor. They have tried to split the ward several times and failed.) Most of their converts these days are students from what I hear.

Things have been ropy round here for a long time but they seem to limp through. A lot of the adult children don't attend, but that was the case twenty years ago.

What I do see is wards closing occasionally in smaller towns. But I believe baptisms are still occurring at a fair rate internationally. It just depends where you are looking - someone mentioned Switzerland which has been a dead duck for as long as I can remember - the Swiss are rich and rich people don't tend to convert. There are other places like West Africa where conversions are still taking place.

I wish I could see it in my own family. Me and my husband come from large families. We are the only ones not attending. There may be one BIL that I'm not sure about. We've never officially resigned. Everyone is still active in the church including my married nieces and nephews.

The drop-out of one prominent member will ignight a new crack in the seeping dam wall of Mormonism.

This person will become a permanent footnote historically, and this fact will likely spur the race, once that individual screams out eloquently, why they had had enough.

The fact is, Mormons know that they have no ethical foundation. What follows logically is that only hypocrites and the voluntarily blind remain as the timber that will fall long, loud and hard, once the courageous ex-member of fame decides to leave.

The implosion will happen suddenly, and last a long time.

I think the bleeding will continue in the U.S., especially in the Morridor. As more church members see family members and neighbors leaving, it will become more acceptable to leave. Salt Lake City is now majority non-Mormon, and IMO that will eventually spread further and further out.

The growth will continue in third-world countries. Africa will see huge growth. That may be why the church is amassing an enormous financial and real estate portfolio at present. The areas where growth will be the greatest will not be bringing in a lot of tithing money for the foreseeable future.