A statistic I hear from time to time is that about 40% of returned missionaries eventually either go inactive or leave the Church after they return from their missions.

I sometimes ask missionaries about this statistic and a number of them tell me they think it is probably true. Seems strange that young men (and some young women) would make the kind of commitment a mission requires without having thought through the claims of the Church before saying they will serve a mission. But I guess some of them may be influenced by Mormon culture and expectations of parents, girlfriends, etc. It could be good for these potential missionaries to read the Church essays before leaving. I often ask missionaries if they've read the essays and more of them are telling me they've read some or all of them. It would be interesting to find out how many who have read the essays before their missions later become part of the 40%.

40 percent of the time 100 percent of the 40 percent of the people who leave leave.

In other news 47 percent of the time 100 percent of the 47 percent of the people who don't pay tithing don't pay tithing.

I wonder if there's a time limit for the 40% estimate. I was still active for 30 years after my mission.

I balanced the scale: I went inactive during my mission...

How did you manage that?

No supervision and three companions who were fine with just hanging out. At that time the Mexican mission was one quarter of the land mass of Mexico. We were spread thin.

There were no phones in the apartments, no district or zone leaders and the APs mostly stayed in Mexico City. Blessed with a companion who doesn't rat you out, who is going to know what you're doing all day, dressed in a white shirt and tie, with name tags not yet having been ordained of ghawd?

In my two years there, I never once met one on one with President McClellan, not when I arrived or even when I "departed." .

I was a mormon tourist who never smoked, drank, cursed or dated. With no supervision and a willingness to submit bogus reports, it was easy.

I think 40% never seriously believed in the first place.

They weren't making a commitment to the mission or the church. The majority were making a commitment to their TBM parents. Got that checked off the list and decided to finally cut the apron strings when they got back and got into real life.

My MP warned me about this when I left the mission almost four decades ago. Interestingly, he said that the numbers were much higher for those who made PA. I forget the exact statistic he gave but it was way north of 50. Seems the better you did on the mission the more likely you were to come to your senses later.

I think it might be closer to 50%. I think many only serve a mission to please their families and friends. I can't imagine a lot of them go because Jackoff Smith was uber spiritual or Brother Wendy is so wonderfully inspired. I checked out there Preach My Gospel discussions (which replaced the rainbow inspired missionary guide discussions in 2003). The entire narrative is very dry, but chalked with a gazillion questions to manipulate people to agree to be baptized. I can't picture a lot of people being able to stomach the full spiel.

I think about half of the missionaries that I served with returned in a "burned-out of church" state. Privately, a bunch of them that were going home confided in me that they had had enough church in 2 years. I've mentioned this before, but Sunday was overkill in my mission. Every Sunday was a good 14 hour day (Two 3 hour services, missionary correlation meetings, baptisms and teaching discussions with members present). I knew elders that were going to take a year or two off from church. I think many never returned.

Interesting!

What percentage of Mormons in that age group who do not go on missions leave?

I wonder if the real purpose of the missionary program--which is to retain and solidify the members at that young age--is a flat-out failure?

Maybe the cult can turn things around, and simply promise Mormon parents that for 2 years their kids will be off of drugs and sex. For that monthly fee, of course.

I think there is another reason that 40% leave it's a bigger problem than missions, information, There is a really
great podcast that documents the experience of millenials in the mormon church, and why they are dissafecting. It
describes pretty clearly what went through my brain. The main point that I identify with is that it's a religion
that satisfies people who fit in. But folks who are different (singles) don't get the validation or intrinsic acknowledgment
of value that the luckier ones get. Many people well endowed people go through life never having their self worth
questioned, but for the rest of us who are a little different it can be a daily obstacle of frustration to associate
in a mormon state, or community.
https://radiowest.kuer.org/post/millennials-and-mormonism

Great point. There aren't going to be many great Mormons since their worth is questioned regularly.

People who do great things don't take to such limitation.

This is a problematic question because we don't have access to the data, and there is likely to be wide variation between different groups. For example:

For each decade from the 1960s on, how many of the missionaries were male and female, and how many of each gender left.

How many single RMs left? Married? Married in temple? Married outside "the church"? In their twenties? Thirties? Forties? After the children were out of the house? After spouse left or died?

IMHO, the most important group WRT the future of LDS Inc is the under-30 crowd. They are the leaders of twenty and thirty years from now. If they are bailing, there is serious trouble in River City.

We don't have that data. The Q15 certainly do. Rusty is all perky and bright-eyed. Holland exudes existential dread. Which of those two do you believe?

For me, leaving happened after a 20 year accumulation of experiences, starting on my mission.

The whole numbers and goals game never set right with me. Couldn't see Jesus pushing that - seemed more fitting for the sales team at a car lot.

Then many instances of inspiration gone bad, which made you question that charade. Like missionaries being "inspired" to set baptismal goals of 250 in a year and ending up with 4.

Free Man Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> For me, leaving happened after a 20 year
> accumulation of experiences, starting on my
> mission.
>
> The whole numbers and goals game never set right
> with me. Couldn't see Jesus pushing that -
> seemed more fitting for the sales team at a car
> lot.
>
> Then many instances of inspiration gone bad, which
> made you question that charade. Like
> missionaries being "inspired" to set baptismal
> goals of 250 in a year and ending up with 4.

My mission president would have shamed them to work harder, pray harder. lol

But I have good reason to believe that the missionary program has been backfiring hugely in recent decades.

Similar to the temple hype, missionary work gets hyped up beyond any connection with reality. Countless stories are told to impressionable young people about mission miracles, revelations and wonders (all of which stories tend to have a strangely Paul H. Dunn quality to them).

Then the hapless suckers go out on their missions wide-eyed and full of anticipation.

"Am I going to be the one who is so righteous that I will convert an entire synagogue, an entire mosque and entire Baptist mega-church congregation....all in just my first year?"

Sorry, kid. Ain't gonna happen. But you may "convert" the crazy guy in the halfway house who wants to get himself a "Mormon girlfriend"...and maybe some help with some legal expenses.

Profound disappointment and disillusionment has always been a mainstay of the typical missionary experience. But missionaries always knew that they had to put on a brave face for all the folks back home who are praying for you and cheering for you. The testimony may be virtually non-existent, but the apostles have promised that you can fake it 'til you make it.

There was a period of time (mostly pre-1970s) when most of the rest of the world had forgotten about Mormonism and really knew nothing about it. So missionaries could have some modicum of faith-affirming success in recruiting converts based on giving fraudulent sales pitches to the unsuspecting.

"What? Polygamy? Oh noooo..... We don't do that. Don't believe in it really. Sure, there was a time when there were many widows and single women and not enough men to go around, during those lean, mean frontier years and what you call 'polygamy' was just a way of making sure they would be looked after and protected....yeah, that's the ticket...er...I mean that's a FACT! It was all about helping widows and poverty stricken single women." (This was a complete lie, but was the standard pitch used by missionaries in my mission. In our defense, we didn't know it was a lie at the time.)

But things have been going south for the missionary program ever since the Joseph Smith papyrus fragments (re-discovered in the 1960s) were proven to be nothing but ordinary funerary texts having nothing to do with Abraham, and ever since the Tanners began their heroic work of circulating all the embarrassing nonsense that the church had tried to sweep under the rug. Mormon missionaries who had led sheltered lives in the bosom of faith began being exposed to challenges for the first time in their lives like never before. The previously unsuspecting public was becoming an increasingly suspicious public.

But it was probably still a net benefit for the Church to send youngsters out to pretend to be "Elders" for two years. The embarrassing facts still were not widely known and in foreign countries, especially, the missionaries most often still encountered virgin ears just waiting for some high-pressure bamboozlement about the wonders of the "Gospel".

Since the advent of the Internet and easy and instant access to all things critical of Mormonism, it is likely that the missionary experience is no longer a reliable way of ensuring that returned missionaries will remain committed to the church.

In any case, it's impossible to know how effective the missionary experience is for retention other than comparing rates of activity among RMs of recent generations to rates of activity among RMs of past generations. I'm quite certain that the trends are all bleak and negative as far as the Church's long-term interests are concerned.

I know of several in my mission who are no longer active and at least two in addition to myself who have left the church completely...and I served during the pre-Internet era.

There was one guy ("Elder Hapless") who had converted to the church just a year or so before being called to our mission.

He was "converted" by his girlfriend, who also encouraged (i.e. compelled) him to serve a mission, so that they could be married in the temple afterwards.

I don't know what was going on in his heart of hearts, or if he ever really believed or thought he had a testimony. Seemed likely that he was just doing it all to please his GF. I had lived in the same missionary apartment with him for a while, but was in a different area when the following events happened.

Long story, short.... After he had been on his mission for about 15 months, he gets a "Dear John" letter from his GF. Seems that while she was going to school at the Y she met "THE ONE" that God had picked out for her. Turned out that Elder Hapless was not "THE ONE". But when the Holy Ghost speaks, you gotta listen. It was meant to be from the pre-existence. She was sad that things turned out this way, but she was also certain that he would find "THE ONE" for him too at some point.

According to his companion at the time, Elder Hapless didn't take it well at all.

He in fact disappeared in the middle of the night a few days after getting the letter and couldn't be found. Calls were made to the mission home. Eventually, he was found. Turns out he had been so furious and resentful that he decided to get drunk and have some fun preaching the gospel in the local red-light district, where he Joseph Smith'd at least one hooker. (Possibly more, according to rumors.)

The details are sketchy as to what exactly he did, and his companion only knew that fornication was involved. But it was enough to get Elder Hapless sent home right away. No passing go. No collecting two hundred dollars. It was just "pack your soiled temple garments and get the H out of here!" Bye-bye Elder Hapless. Have fun with your "Court of Love" when you get home.

I didn't keep in touch with Elder Hapless, but I somehow suspect that after his missionary experience Elder Hapless left the church and did not return. (But I hope he eventually met "THE ONE".)

The brethren know all of this. Do they care about who gets thrown under the bus in their church? Not as long as the money’s good.

Watch them raise the missionary age back to 19. The 18 year old group is having too much attrition.

Problem is too many 18 year olds are leaving while on their mission, but too many 19 year olds left before their mission (i.e. chose not to go) when they were out of parents home for a year. Rock and a hard place

Exactly. I don't see the missionary program as fixable at this point. The only thing keeping it running is the pressure from the TBM parents who need the missionary child patch for the bandelo.

I once dated a guy who didn’t believe and we met when he was 23. Yet he’d served a mission. He had no struggles going inactive, he thought they whole thing was ridiculous. He did his mission where he learnt to speak Russian, then used this to become an intelligence officer for the US navy. Had an amazing career. I suspect he did the mission for what he got out of it. No guilt, no worrying over it. All his siblings are inactive too, only his parents are active. I’ve never before or since seen people leave with no anxiety over the decision whatsoever. He thought the religion was stupid and it was a no brainer.

commongentile Wrote:
--------------------------------------- It would be interesting to find out how many have read the essays before their missions later become part of the 40%.

Well, you mean IF THEY ARE TOLD (Knew) THE TRUTH? They wouldn't NEED the essays.

NONE of them would even go on missings.

It's not (just) about reading what Mormons have to say about it's/ their (Joseph Smith & LDS's) past, it's explanations, excuses and reasonings... But more about SUPPORT, and Honesty, and Guidance.

Mormon kids have NONE of that... if they want to think for themselves and lead a life of happiness, and honesty, and integrity (unrelated to Mormonism).

Of course half the missionaries leave. 1/2 NEVER wanted to go in the first place. Many who go later learn the truth, and so naturally, they leave, seeking more authentic, intellectual, fulfilling, and uplifting pursuits, paths, or (religious or social) affiliation.