I was looking up data on future growth projections for Utah, and came across the following, from the Kem Gardner Policy Institute at the U of U.

https://gardner.utah.edu/wp-content/uploads/Projections-Brief-Final.pdf

"Utah’s total fertility rate (average number of children born to a Utah woman in her lifetime) is projected to
continue the existing trend of a slow decline. From 2015-2065, rates are projected to decline from 2.32 to 2.29. These rates are projected to remain higher than national rates that move from 1.87 to 1.86 over a similar period."


OK, 2.32 was 2014 data, and they were projecting a slow decline to 2.29 by 2065, 30 years later (ack! 2015 to 2065 is fifty years. I'm so embarrassed :().

In reality, as has been reported here a few weeks ago, the 2018 data was a fertility rate of 2.03 in Utah.

So instead of a 0.03 drop over fifty (not 30) years, there was a 0.29 drop in just four years. That's as bad as Rodney Starke predicting 260 million Mormons by 2060. That's a spectacular miss! The Utah fertility rate has fallen off a cliff.

I mentioned in another recent thread how I watched the birthrate in Quebec go from the highest in Canada to the lowest in a generation. I may have said, and certainly thought, that the same could happen in Utah.

Utah fertility probably won't drop to the lowest in the country, but its reputation for large families is taking a serious hit. The times, they are a changing.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 02/02/2020 01:51AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Interesting. Two questions:

1) The article does not distinguish LDS fertility from the overall Utah population. We would all find that especially interesting, especially if we could get accurate religious retention rates of children up to the age of, say, 25.

2) What is the replacement fertility rate for a) Utah and b) LDS women (unless the studied cohort is couples?)?

I'll throw in a #3: how do these statistics compare to the national average, and how does Utah rank among the states?

Well, it is a census year.

Speaking of the Census--I've posted this at least once--if any Board members are looking for temporary or extra work, I've seen Census flyers advertising work for $27.50/hour. Not too shabby! Sure beats flipping burgers or brewing cappuccino.

the replacement fertility rate is generally accepted to be 2.1

The rate for Utah can be found here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

Religion is not normally included on birth certificates which are the source of most of this data.

And census pay depends on where you are

https://2020census.gov/en/jobs/pay-and-locations/national-map.html

In Jackson, MS it's $14.50 to $15.00/hr.

The replacement rate is about 2.1 for everybody everywhere. In theory, the replacement rate would be 2.0 if children never died, etc.

Short term, a population may continue to increase, even with a below-replacement fertility rate, because of the high number of young people. Over the long haul, however, a fertility rate of 2.1 will give you a static population.

The quote from the Gardner Report said the US rate was projected to fall from 1.87 to 1.86 over the next fifty years. I just checked, and it was 1.80 in 2018. Yet another missed projection.

Utah is #4 fertility rate among US states. The Dakotas are kicking our ass. :)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_U.S._states_and_territories_by_fertility_rate

My assumption is that the same variables--higher wealth and more educational opportunities for women reduce fertility--work on all places with roughly equal force.

Places with unusual religions will be somewhat more resistant to that force, but eventually they too will succumb. That said, I'm pleasantly surprised at how fast Utah's fertility rate is falling because the speed of the adjustment indicates that Mormonism is losing its influence quite rapidly. I doubt Utah will catch up with the nation, which is now a little below 1.8, anytime soon but a difference of just 23-25 basis points is pretty striking.

We know the church is worried about this because of its open attitude towards legal and illegal immigration. Indeed, if you stripped out the effect of the Latino and other immigrant groups Utah's rate would probably be even lower. So white Utah is shrinking almost as fast as white America, and the eroding delta between the two represents the diminishing power of the church.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/02/2020 02:12AM by Lot's Wife.