Corona deaths in USA 2,100
Very bad until you compare them with car deaths

2010 32,999
2011 32,479
2012 33,782
2013 32.893
2014 32,744
2015 35,486
2016 37,806
2017 37,133
2018 36,500

Total 308,912

Where is the comparable panic over car deaths??



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 12:34PM by thedesertrat1.

So if every 100 car trips resulted in 4.3 deaths would you ban cars ?

Dave the Atheist Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So if every 100 car trips resulted in 4.3 deaths
> would you ban cars ?
good point Would you?

I wouldn't be trivializing a horrible pandemic by comparing it with traffic deaths.
Seems that deaths are OK with you as long as they don't interfere with your stock portfolio.

The data sure make it crystal clear: ban death!!



Convicted of a second DUI? You get a chip implanted that prevents a car from starting if you're in the drivers seat, or kills the engine if you get into that seat after it is running. You're done!

You're welcome.

How does the chip know who sits in the driver's seat unless the offender is implanted with a chip himself ?

"...you get a chip implanted..." meant the offender gets the chip in him/her.

Yes, thank you. My reading comprehension failed for a moment.

I like that idea. Can families of victims be the ones who get to implant the chip in the offender ?

Car deaths do not grow at an exponential rate each day, or two, or three.

^^^Win !!!^^^

Nor do they overwhelm hospitals making them have to triage car wreck patients. It's a sad fact that most car accident deaths are DOA.

Correct.

Also, car accidents result in one or a few people being hospitalized. COVID-19 results in huge numbers being hospitalized, eventually displacing people who need healthcare for other critical problems.

The problem isn't the deaths per se (although that will change if the disease continues to spread) but rather the strain on an undercapitalized healthcare system. COVID-19 will result in more deaths from flu, even from car crashes, because hospital beds won't be available.

The first reported US death from COVID-19 was on 2/29/20. Let's round that up to 3/1.

Today's date is 3/29. We obviously don't have numbers for today, so let's use yesterday's date.

Between 3/1 and 3/28, 2,112 people have died, and 122,653 are known to be infected.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/cases-in-us.html

Let's pretend that the number of deaths won't increase exponentially.

You're comparing 28 days to 365.25 days.

11*2,112=23,232.

If we use the lowest estimated mortality rate of 2%, and we assume that there are no other cases that have not been diagnosed nor will be diagnosed in the future, 122,653*0.02*11 = 26,984 will die by 2/28/2021.

Now, let's say 1% of the US population from 2019 gets infected. We're now talking about 329,617,000*0.01=3,296,170 infections.

Let's say no one is born, no one dies, no one emigrates or immigrates, and 3,296,170 is a static number. 3,296,170*0.02*11=72,417 deaths.

72,417 deaths, and I'm using conservative estimates.

So, my SIL would have a better chance surviving a car crash than surviving this virus. She is hospitalized with this virus.

I can't believe you're comparing stats for ONE YEAR to ONE MONTH.

Please anyone check my math and correct me. I'm still pretty sure more people will die of COVID-19 this year than will die of car crashes, but I could be wrong. Maybe everyone with COVID-19 dies in a car crash.



Edited 7 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 02:03PM by Beth.

Sorry...


What if a coronavirus sufferer who is going to die tries to drive to the hospital, has an accident, and when the paramedics get to the scene, is deceased?

Which column gets the stat?


Again, sorry.

null set

Dr. Fauci predicts up to 100,000 to 200,000 deaths in US from Covid-19

https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/03/fauci-predicts-100k-200k-us-deaths-spain-italy-demand-help.html

Drastic times require drastic measures.

If a car is involved in a fender bender, put that car in an impound lot for a month so nobody can drive it.

If a car is involved in an accident where someone is injured but not taken to the hospital, impound the car, take it's tires off, and chain a log to it's front bumper.

If a car is involved in a serious accident where someone goes to the hospital, immediately drag the car to a public place and invite the locals to throw rocks at it repeatedly.

If a car is involved in a fatal accident, haul the car to the crusher and flatten it so that nobody can ever drive it again.

Three days ago, you wrote on that you like to post "controversial" statements. There's a fine line between that and outright trolling. IMO, you have now crossed that line.

You're deliberately comparing incomplete figures (that are still in flux and increasing) to annual, known totals and treating them the same way. That's intellectually dishonest.

Your bogus argument echoes talking points on so-called news outlets trying to compare COVID with the annual flu, saying the flu is no big deal so this shouldn't be either. Bulls***. We have flu vaccines but none for this. We have no natural immunity against this either.

Hoarding and panic buying are stupid and counterproductive. But COVID is nothing like car crashes. And yes, if 3.4% of all car trips resulted in deaths, you can bet your desert that drastic measures would be taken, up to and including the possibility of banning cars.

Wait until the final totals are in. Only THEN can we make an honest comparison.

I stopped a while back to assist at the scene of a 2-car accident. One car was blocking two lanes of traffic on a 3-lane busy main road. I checked out an injured passenger and spoke to the drivers, up close, giving them information as they weren't sure how to proceed. After I called for assistance for them, I spent 15 minutes up close with the injured young woman. Police and ambulance arrived in due course.

This car accident did not cause a ripple effect, resulting in further crashes (although it was blocking the road and many drivers expressed frustration as they passed by).

I had zero hesitation in approaching the injured passenger or speaking with the drivers. I didn't have to be unduly concerned that I would become ill from being in contact with them or that I would have to isolate myself from society for 14 days, putting my life on hold, because I got closer to them than 6 feet.

A car accident is essentially an isolated event, affecting only those directly involved. One accident on that street did not give rise to more accidents.

The police officers and paramedics didn't have to stop and don PPEs (other than the usual gloves) before they could speak with us or check out the injured woman.

Now, with COVID, I would certainly hesitate to approach anyone too closely. I always bear in mind that obviously I don't want to contract the virus (especially as I had a massively awful and scary flu last year and certainly don't ever want to experience anything like that again) but in addition, do not want to subject my family members, friends, and community to the fallout if I were to contract CV, necessitating them putting their lives on hold due to their proximity to me.

Car accident: Life goes on as usual for most folks, if not for any injured parties. NOT CONTAGIOUS.

COVID-19: Life halts suddenly. Big interruption. Perhaps a permanent one. For oneself and/or family, friends, community contacts.

Hence the publicity, the public health alerts, the extreme measures taken by world governments, the new responsibility we each should feel to protect ourselves in ways we've never thought of before, and to protect strangers from ourselves lest we inadvertently pass on pathogens and interrupt their lives as well.

This virus will likely change the world forever. And the way we interact with each other. Big. Fat. Wake-up. Call.

Car accidents? Just another run of the mill daily event (other than for those immediately impacted and their loved ones).

I'd rather be taking my car to the mechanic or the body shop than myself to ER.

And I've never been to an autobody shop where they tell me they're out of oil or wiper fluid or spare parts or grinning mechanics.

Hospitals with insufficient space, staff shortages, equipment shortfalls, inconvenient schedules? Absolutely.

And that was before the advent of CV. It is just a tad scary to know that when your GP's office is shut, even ER is not accessible to you, due to COVID. Unless you are in extremis they can't assess you even if in another time you would have been welcome to show up.

It's a game-changer. Perhaps a permanent one.

I don't think this is a topic for a numbers game. Especially if you're just playing.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 02:38PM by Nightingale.

Desertrat, I agree with those who say if you are trolling (or "sparking discussion,") or whatever you want to call it, knock it off. We don't need it right now. People have enough to deal with.

The fact is, education can only go so far. People need to act with care, and governments need to tighten down because there are always those people who will not act with care, either out of ignorance or carelessness. I've also seen a sharp uptick in social shaming of people who are acting irresponsibly, which I don't think is a bad thing right now.

I've gotten to the point where I've realized that I can't fix stupid. I also can't fix cultural norms that are deeply entrenched, but at this point, harmful. Sadly, it will likely take a whole lot of deaths of people close to them to wake some folks from their stupor.

I do feel very sorry for the health care workers who will pay the price for other people's persistent foolishness.

The death rates are not yet representative of any real liklihood that you will die if you or anyone else gets Covid-19, although we know that the elderly who become infected will suffer greater numbers of deaths. If you divide the number of people who have died by the number of known infections, the resulting percentages is a number that is almost useless right now. We don't really know yet how many people are infected (the denominator). A denominator of 100 people will create a bigger death percentage than will a denominator of 100,000 people, given the same number of deaths (the numerator). The numerator may be too small of a number with respect to the denominator that was used in the calculation. Who knows (at this time)?

The data on total numbers of infections is now just starting to come in from large samplings of populations and will never be perfect. That data will allow the experts to characterize the disease relatively accurately and to build accurate models of the disease progression and fatality rate. Eventually (maybe as early as this week) the experts will be able to accurately predict the growth rate of the disease with respect to social behavior. We may realize all at once that the risk is manageable given our previous actions and then re-open the economy. Or they may need to keep everyone in their homes for much longer. But there are a few other things to consider.

Eventually most of us will likely catch the COVID-19 virus (assuming it survives from one year to the next). It'll be an annoyance that we take vaccines to protect us from and that many of us won't bother to get vaccinated for, because it will cause less severe of attacks against the human body in general than it does now, just like a regular flu. Fewer people who are exposed will get sick. Those who catch it then will be able to be treated to assist with recovery. But that is later, not now. We need to get from here to there by millions of us actually catching the disease and getting over it as a means of building a resistance to it. Governments will decide what an acceptable death rate is and then will add or remove quarantine procedures accordingly. So the death rate will be weighed against a number that is considered to be an acceptable number of deaths, with respect to the need to revive the economy. The various governments will make these decisions. This will happen from the Federal and state levels down to the local level.

This sounds cold and cruel and it is. But our society does this all of the time. Even airlines and automakers do it. Sometimes it is less expensive to pay insurance claims to the families of people who die than it is to have a life-saving recall on a car or an airplane. The idea isn't to save everyone but to minimize the over-all death toll. As soon as exponential spreading of the disease hits tolerable death rates, the social isolation will end either all at once or progressively. If the disease lives from one year to the next, most of us will catch it eventually.

The best way to monitor the disease yourself now is to look at the total number of deaths each day. If the total number of deaths today minus the total number of deaths yesterday gives a significantly bigger result than when you did these same calculations yesterday, then the disease is spreading at an increasing rate. That rate is what I keep an eye on. Then look to see where the biggest numbers came from and extrapolate to see what happens when the disease hits your city the way it reached New York. Then look to see if mitigating factors such as social isolation are really working. It's still early to see if the social isolation is working well and if so, how well. In the worst case, the disease has the same death toll by percentage in small towns around the country as we're seeing now in New York. It'll just take a while to reach everyone (weeks, not months). As soon as the hospitals are ready to meet the expected demand and the death rate with respect to the economy is acceptable, everyone will go back to work again.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 03/29/2020 06:21PM by azsteve.

You ain’t seen nothing yet. It spreads like a cold with 10x the mortality rates of the flu. Check back the first week in May and let us know what you think then.