Don’t you guys think Dieter will likely become “prophet” assuming nothing out of the ordinary happens (like he gets hit with cancer)?

Except for Holland, all the senior guys ahead of him (Oaks, Eyring and Ballard) are at least 8 years older than him.

And Holland is the same age but, based simply on his appearance, doesn’t look as healthy.

We’d have to assume unless Holland outlives, Dieter is likely the next prophet, no?

My guess is it’s Oaks next for a few years like Nelson, then Holland, then Dieter, before a long reign of the evil one, David Bednar.

That would be the best strategic move for the church, which means it will never happen.

My understanding is that the order of succession is a non-negotiable clause in the articles of incorporation for the church. There is no option for any deliberation on the matter.

How cool if one of the steps necessary for the call to be an apostle is a Polaroid photo of the candidate, naked, on top of a hooker (based on the garish make-up), also naked, said photo locked away, only to be used in furtherance of the needs of the church?

That way they have the means to remove an afossil who is in the way...

Yes, I like to dream big!

slskipper Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My understanding is that the order of succession
> is a non-negotiable clause in the articles of
> incorporation for the church. There is no option
> for any deliberation on the matter.
That is absolutely true as I understand it.
Upon the death of the president of the Corporation of the president of the church of jesus christ of latter day saints
The senior apostle automatically becomes the president. I believe that I read this from a copy of the actual articles several years ago.
If I am in error somebody correct me



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/21/2020 11:44AM by thedesertrat1.

But TSCC seldom reminds members of this, so most members and exmos are not aware of this option. Furthermore, even whether or not a “First Presidency” group of three is to be appointed, and a “Quorum of the Twelve” presiding, also must be agreed upon!

Below is an excerpt from an LDS newsroom article entitled “Succession in the Presidency of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints.” Notice in particular #6. NOTHING is said about requiring the next prophet to be the next in seniority. That has been a custom, but it is not written in stone.

Here is the link. The excerpt follows.
https://newsroom.churchofjesuschrist.org/additional-resource/succession-in-the-presidency-of-the-church-of-jesus-christ-of-latter-day-saints

When the president of the Church passes away, the following events take place:
1. The First Presidency is automatically dissolved.
2. The two counselors in the First Presidency revert to their places of seniority in the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles. Seniority is determined by the date on which a person was ordained to the Twelve, not by age.
3. The Quorum of the Twelve Apostles, now numbering 14 and headed by the senior apostle, assumes Church leadership.
4. The senior apostle presides at a meeting of the Quorum of the Twelve to consider two alternative propositions:
i. Should the First Presidency be reorganized at this time?
ii. Should the Church continue to function with the Quorum of the Twelve presiding?
5. After discussion, a formal motion is made and accepted by the Quorum of the Twelve Apostles.
6. If a motion to reorganize the First Presidency is passed, the Quorum of the Twelve unanimously selects the new president of the Church. The new president chooses two counselors and the three of them become the new First Presidency. Throughout the history of the Church, the longest-serving apostle has always become the president of the Church when the First Presidency has been reorganized.
7. Following the reorganization of the First Presidency, the apostle who has served the second longest is sustained as the president of the Quorum of the Twelve. When the second-longest-serving apostle has also been called into the First Presidency as a counselor, the third-longest-serving apostle becomes acting president of the Twelve.
8. The president of the Quorum of the Twelve, along with the rest of the apostles, sets apart* the new president of the Church through a formal laying on of hands.

I think Quin writes of Lee challenging JFS for the presidency saying JFS was too old. They compromised with Lee becoming 1st Counseler with Lee free to pursue his vision of Correlation (which vision was was really stupid).

Then JFS dies and Lee dies in rapid succession.

SWK comes to the meeting with a letter from his Dr. saying he is fit to carry out the duties of the Pres.

Bringing a letter from his doctor?

That doesn’t show a lot of faith in direct communication with all tighty-whitey ghawd!!

Neither does the JFS/HBL episode.

wow you can just feel the inspiration of the lard guiding this church.

These days, candidates for POTUS should have a doctor’s note.

The order of succession is based on seniority.

The definition of "seniority" has been changed at least twice in the history of the church, though.

There is no way of knowing. The definition of "seniority" has changed at least twice in the history of the church--once, specifically to keep a particular apostle from becoming the next president.

Vortigern Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There is no way of knowing. The definition of
> "seniority" has changed at least twice in the
> history of the church--once, specifically to keep
> a particular apostle from becoming the next
> president.

Which one?

Time to take this issue to the source of all mormon wisdom!

That's right, Survey Time!!!

It's a grim game those old men play, " Last Man Living"

Most Mormons are willing to believe the veil is thinner for those on their last legs. The Q12 loves an incapacitated church president because they can get their pet projects rubber stamped. Why mess with success?

I wouldn't put it past Bednar to suddenly be forced to have sympathy at the unexpected death of any of his colleagues that stood in the way of profithood.

Based on a long-ago, long-forgotten statement he made about church leader mistakes, there was some (now gone) hope he might change things just a bit to have ChurchCo more accountable / responsible...

that turned out to be a Ghost Ship that sailed without a crew, passengers, or cargo....

too bad for everyone concerned.

The Mormon Church is very clear they do not apologize for psychological terrorists.

A few years old (still has Monson as prez, doesn't include the 2 newest additions), but this is a chart based on actuarial tables on who's likely to sit on the big throne through 2040.

https://i.imgur.com/ri1GICE.jpg

Roughly:
Nelson to 2021
Oaks 2021-24
Holland 2024-28
BEDNAR 2028-

Uchtdorf never gets his finger near the strudel.

These actuarial charts are probably just assuming Holland outlives Dieter because he is older and thus doesn't become president. But Dieter is only a month older (virtually insignificant).

Unless we assume Holland will be in better health and outlives Dieter, then Dieter becomes president, even if it will be a short time.

If, say, Holland dies at 90 and Dieter dies at 92, Dieter will be president for 2 years.

Almost anything COULD happen, but my money would be on Uchtdorf outliving Holland. I've met both of them. Dieter looks easily a decade younger.

You might very well be right about that.

It would be an interesting church under Dieter.

The highest probability is for Oaks, Holland, and Bednar. Uchdorf has a narrow window of opportunity between Holland and Bednar, but it likely won't happen.

https://i.redd.it/vslgf437giq21.png

that's an interesting chart, did you compose it, summer, or is it a commonly used professional tool?

thanks!

No, I didn't make it. It's been around for a while. IIRC it's based on average lifespans for males. There is a website that goes into more detail about how it was constructed, but I couldn't find it in a quick web search. I think the one that "logged out tonight" linked is a variation.

Uchtdorf isn't even a full month older than Holland and has led a much more healthful lifestyle. Dieter has a decent chance of outliving Jeffrey R.

That's exactly what I was thinking. When news hit that Holland was in the hospital, my first thought was, wow, Dieter might actually become prophet if this is something serious. Turns out it wasn't and HOlland was let out of the hospital but I was surprised no one in this community was talking about Dieter becoming prophet.

I agree though, Dieter looks so much healthier than Holland. Holland looks like he's ready for a heart attack any minute.

Of course, these are only superficial observations and you never really know what can happen to someone regarding their health.
Dieter might suddenly get some bad cancer and die next year.

But based purely on age, Dieter has a 50% chance of outliving Holland. And if that's the case, he's got a 50% chance of becoming prophet, and even more if our superficial observations of these guys' health is a predictor.

scmd1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Uchtdorf isn't even a full month older than
> Holland and has led a much more healthful
> lifestyle. Dieter has a decent chance of outliving
> Jeffrey R.


More like Jowl-ey R, amiright?

Anziano Young Wrote:

>
> More like Jowl-ey R, amiright?

You're right.

With all the dust-ups about Russ... maybe MoProfits will settle back into bed... if they don't thrive on lots of adulation, that is.

Because the insulate themselves from real day-to-day problems that the rank-and-file struggle with, I'm thinking that they get Fed Up with routine administrative crap; who would really like to be surrounded by sycophants?


So you're a (new) profit, here's what U do when U come to work:

for the first few weeks (months?) you see reports of tithing receipts And pretend you care.

You get a feel for who's-who in the list of your subordinates in the org, whether or not they're on Your Team or not...

Ignore pleas for help from the unwashed masses

Try to fit in a few weddings of staff & peers for the sake of appearances (A LOT in Morland!!)

Smile a lot to others, but the % of sincere ones goes steadily downward; it's all about Show, ya know...

Prepare for the next conference, oversee the selection of speakers & topics... Unless delegated to a subordinate.

Go to boring meetings where everyone fawns over U (again, this rapidly gets old bc you're more of a figurehead than a real leader!)

Bonus Time! Announce a few new temples, knowing:

- There's $ to be made by a close church land investment
- second & third tier hangers-on will get the construction contracts, possible source of payola here!!
- bribes, favors, kick-backs to gov't officials have to be kept quiet!

I don't ever expect to see a foreign born, non-Utah raised person as "Prophet."

I do expect to see Mormonism once again become a Great Basin / Mountain West centered tribal cult with limited global reach.

John Taylor?

“I do expect to see Mormonism once again become a Great Basin / Mountain West centered tribal cult with limited global reach.”

I’ve got good news for you.

I just want whoever is next to be the craziest whack-job of them all. Let's get some Joseph and Brigham antics going and make Mormonism fun again!

I want TBMs to have to resort to the response/excuse, "Well, she was 18 when the Prophet married her!"

I want extreme on either end. Either a wack job that makes even the members hate the church and wake up or a super progressive guy that ends up making so many positive changes that the church ends up being another RLDS and the members are no longer under the grip of a cult and thereby free to think for themselves and do as they please.

Ex-Cultmember Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We’d have to assume unless Holland outlives,
> Dieter is likely the next prophet, no?

I'm having trouble doubting your doubts.

I laid all this out a couple years ago, I'll have to see if I can find the post.

If Dieter makes it, he'll have a short reign. All he has to do is outlive Holland, which shouldn't be too hard. But with Nelson's and then Oaks' longevity, Holland will be quite old when he ascends the throne and Uchtdorf even older.

Then--settle in for the long winter, because it will be Bednar's turn and he will likely be the youngest prophet in fifty years. Whatever good Uchtdorf does, you can bet Bednar will immediately undo it.

Will people be told Not to use the word "Mormon" then?
what other words & conduct will be prohibited?

I've consumed most of a bottle of wine and am feeling sufficiently full of myself to prognosticate.

We obviously don't know who will live long enough to make it to the pinnacle. We're morbid even to speculate, though I readily admit to being at least as morbid as is the next person if not more so, and I'm not above finding some entertainment value in the GA Dead Pool.

With all of the aforementioned having been stated, though, I will make a bold prediction that neither Ballard nor Holland will ever sit atop the exalted commode. My suspicion is that lifestyle will catch up with both of them prior to any ascendancy to Grand Poobah status on the part of either of them.

I don't have strong feelings in either direction concerning whether Oaks will outlive Nelson or whether Eyring will reach ultimate LDS prominence. If I were forced to bet, I would bet against both, but I wouldn't voluntarily place my money in the Dead Pool in either direction where these two are concerned.

Health notwithstanding, we're obviously only a single helicopter crash or choke on a grape away from any one of the Lard's Anointed being eliminated from eligibility in the blink of an eye. As we on this forum are [mostly] enlightened, we know that the Exalted 15 are gifted with no greater protection than anyone else when taking into consideration the level of wealth bestowed upon each of them. Because it has been quite some time since an apostle left this world due to an unpropitious accident, it would seem that such might be overdue except that, unlike with regard to some phenomena, the recent absence of such events does not statistically alter the probability of future occurrence of such events.

Reader's Digest Condensed Version of Scott's Predictions:
Ballard and Holland: no
Oaks and Eyring: maybe
Dieter and Bednar: barring unforeseen calamity, yes
Following Bednar: It's conceivable that the apostle who succeeds Bednar to the throne has not yet been seated as an apostle, though Gong certainly looks healthy.

I fail to sense or understand any extraordinary significance to (whomever) being the Grand Poo-Bah.

Yes, things for Mormons will get tighter if Bedknobs takes the throne, but

a. Won't effect me

b. Gawd's Chosen People (R) will thrive the way they've been conditioned / intimidated / propagandized to regardless.

c. All Apostles are church broke, else they wouldn't have been selected to see the inner-workings, much less have a hand on the wheel...

In Short, I'm underwhelmed at all this.

GNPE Wrote:
>
> In Short, I'm underwhelmed at all this.

Be underwhelmed if it works best for you.

At this time I'm not watching professional sports. I'm not attending concerts or theatre. I'm not playing golf. I'm not traveling or even taking my children to the beach. My children don't like it if I read too much unless it's to them, and reading the good stuff requires a level of concentration not easy to sustain with a four- and five-year-old demanding attention. i'm working and sheltering in place.

Drinking the better part of a bottle of wine and prognosticating amuses me, and I can do it while playing chess or Monopoly with a four- or five-year-old.

Those who are underwhelmed or otherwise disinterested can whine something along the lines of "How does this help MY recovery?" or can choose to read the threads that hold their interest.

It amused me as well. Thanks for your prognosticating.

Jeffery Holland doesn't look healthy. I hear he suffers from depression and mood swings.

Dieter Uchtdorf on the other hand is a pilot. He had to be in excellent physical condition to be both a fighter and commercial pilot. He stills flys private aircraft and has to pass a pilot's physical to do so. He also seems to be mentally stable and happy.

There is a good chance Uchtdorf could live a long life like president Nelson and become prophet.

Dieter isn’t one of the family members, so he won’t be prophet.

Given Holland's seemingly sketchy health, Dieter is very likely to become top dog.

Holland is only 4 weeks younger. Certainly not enough to give anything better than even odds of outlasting.

The charts linked above both show Holland much more likely to spend time as top dog than Dieter.

I think it's safe to reverse the names on those curves -- Dieter gets the top curve, Holland the bottom one.

Look at recent General Conference sermons -- Dieter has tight facial muscles, good cadence, doesn't skip any vowels or consonants.

The stuff you see going on on the outside of a body represents the innards pretty well. Saggy skin = saggy organs...

*****

The much more interesting question:
* Dieter stepped out of line, apparently. To get. bumped from the 1st presidency.
* He gave the famous sermon about early church leaders making errors. Presumably this represents other issues of non belief, also. He being a convert simply can't turn off his doubts, he needs to consciously manufacture belief and statements of belief all along the way.
* So, if the rest of the 12 don't believe that he can toe the party line, will they ordain him as profit?
* If they somehow refuse him, it will illustrate that there is quite a rift between the progressive folks and the hard liners.
* If they refuse him, it will be Bednar that comes in instead. And they'll be stuck with Bednar for a Reaaaaalllly long time...

My $0.02

RG



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/25/2020 05:14PM by reinventinggrace.

It will be interesting. I don't know if Dieter necessarily did anything to cause his own demotion. I suspect Nelson's faction was opposed to his being called as a counselor in the first place.

Kathleen, how do you think the conservative faction will keep Dieter out of power if he's the senior apostle when a prophet kicks the bucket? Do you think he'll have an untimely accident, or will the apostles break protocol?

It's a great source of entertainment for me.



> * Dieter stepped out of line, apparently. To get.
> bumped from the 1st presidency.
> * He gave the famous sermon about early church
> leaders making errors. Presumably this represents
> other issues of non belief, also. He being a
> convert simply can't turn off his doubts, he needs
> to consciously manufacture belief and statements
> of belief all along the way.
> * So, if the rest of the 12 don't believe that he
> can toe the party line, will they ordain him as
> profit?
> * If they somehow refuse him, it will illustrate
> that there is quite a rift between the progressive
> folks and the hard liners.
> * If they refuse him, it will be Bednar that comes
> in instead. And they'll be stuck with Bednar for
> a Reaaaaalllly long time...
>
> My $0.02
>
> RG

the Worst Part of his (paraphrase)'leaders have sometimes made mistakes' was a lack of follow-up, no resolution or even mentioning the outcome of leader mistakes (people being led astray, making further wrong decisions/actions).

scmd1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Kathleen, how do you think the conservative
> faction will keep Dieter out of power if he's the
> senior apostle when a prophet kicks the bucket? Do
> you think he'll have an untimely accident, or will
> the apostles break protocol?
>


Well, there's a $100-billion corporate sole at risk here.

Lest we forget from whence Lori Vallow sprung, blood atonement and Laban with his head cut off.

It's only time 'till Rusty, Dallin and Henry B. start seeing poor old Dieter as a Zombie.

In fact ... does anyone even know where he is ?

Hmmmmm ...

Lost in Russia looking fo a temple site.

Hmmmm indeed.

My guess is the older more senior guys aren't a big fan of Dieter and was demoted because Oaks and Nelson are old time pals. If Dieter becomes eligible to become prophet, all those old timers will be gone and DIETER will be the old timer. Holland, Oaks, Nelson, Ballard and Eyring will all be gone. The younger guys may just support him as he would be the most senior of them all.

There is no way of knowing. The definition of "seniority" has changed at least twice in the history of the church--once, specifically to keep a particular apostle from becoming the next president.

I think I only attended seminary six times all year in my D&C/church history year. My grasp of LDS history is weak. When, how, and for whom was the definition of "seniority" changed in LDS apostolic circles?

Thanks.

The rules were changed to deny one of Brigham's sons (John Willard) the presidency.

JWY was ordained an apostle at 11 years old (not a typo) but was never called into the Q12. In 1900, Prez Snow changed the rules from "longest serving apostle" to "longest serving Q12 member."

https://www.dialoguejournal.com/wp-content/uploads/sbi/articles/Dialogue_V35N04_125.pdf

Eyring looks like he's damn near dead now. I don't think he is going to out live anyone.

He spent all his life force in crocodile tears.

I don't give a s*&^