“I went out a couple of weeks ago ... because of my stupidity I put my mom and sisters and my family’s health in jeopardy,” he wrote in the June 20 post, CNN reported.

“This has been a very painful experience,” Macias wrote, according to the network. “This is no joke. If you have to go out, wear a mask, and practice social distancing. ... Hopefully with God’s help, I’ll be able to survive this.”

Macias died a day later of COVID-19 after being rushed to a hospital and put on a ventilator, KNBC reported."


https://www.sacbee.com/news/coronavirus/article243953542.html

did he died OPie ?





in b 4 ~ ban delicious barbecued meats ~

That's close to home for me. I got out very little, and I wear the mask.

So someone attended that barbecue who a) knew he had tested positive, and b) had no mask on.

Can we call that homicide?

+summer:
"So someone attended that barbecue who a) knew he had tested positive, and b) had no mask on."

==He says that he did not know that you can transmit the virus when you are asymptomatic. I don't know if that is true. I think we all know. They have been saying it since February that this is a highly contagious virus and that symptomatic or not, you can transmit.

"Can we call that homicide?"

==I don't know. Can we jail people for being dumb, being a peabrain, being uneducated?

~~~~iceman9090

Miraculous it is how the coronavirus is deliberately avoiding the mass protests with hundreds of people in the streets and places like the (former) CHAZ, and only targeting people having private little gatherings on their own property ... that is one clever little virus

"The cause of the current spike in cases is impossible to pinpoint, said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases. But a series of events that occurred simultaneously, INCLUDING PROTESTS, Memorial Day festivities and states reopening, likely contributed, he told the Harvard Business Review." [Emphasis mine.]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/03/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html

Miraculous how the MSM is indeed reporting that the protests are probable contributors to the viral spread, despite your uninformed claim. If only you read before posting, your attempted sarcasm might have some actual bite, but as usual… no.

Indeed. He can't produce a single serious scientist who has said anything like what he claims, but of course the truth is harder to dispute than straw man mischaracterizations.

I'm responding to the top post in which "Dave the Atheist" chose to make a story of a man going to a barbecue and getting the Covid the main topic of the thread. But I guess it makes a more compelling headline than "Cause of current spike in Covid cases impossible to pinpoint, sez Fauci"

All the science-lovers should remember the old admonition about drawing broad conclusions from anecdotal cases.

Yet Dave offered no generalization based on that anecdote. It is you, and you alone, who derived a generalization--a false one--and then assailed it.

That is unadulterated straw-man-ism.

OP didn't draw a broad conclusion. Gatherings like backyard BBQs can be fatal. That's quite narrow. You added the broad stroke.

xxMoo0 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ...it makes a more
> compelling headline than "Cause of current spike
> in Covid cases impossible to pinpoint, sez Fauci"

Even saying that, Dr. Fauci did not mean that there is no spike. There is a spike and there are several possible causes - one or a combination of the various events that occurred simultaneously.

How does that discount the fact that a spike occurred?


> All the science-lovers should remember the old
> admonition about drawing broad conclusions from
> anecdotal cases.

"Science-lovers" - sounds like it's meant to be a slur. Yet, conversely, it's not.

No one wore a mask at the party, including a man who knew he was positive. He thought since he had no symptoms, he couldn't spread it.
Now, the family is pleading with people to wear masks: "all of this could have been avoided if we had worn masks..."
Yeah, no sh*t. They've been telling you to do so for MONTHS now.

Amazing how it takes a death in their own circle before people wake up to their selfish, entitled and stupid behavior.

One last time for the mouth breathers:

STAY HOME. IF YOU *MUST* GO OUT, WEAR A MASK!

>>No one wore a mask at the party, including a man who knew he was positive. He thought since he had no symptoms, he couldn't spread it.

We also operate under the assumption that people know the basics about the virus. A man tests positive, and evidently had no idea that he could spread the virus. I'll bet he's not alone.

Macias had diabetes and was overweight per the article. My A1C was 5.8 (normal is 5.6 or below) in January and my BMI is 27 currently (normal weight is 18.5–24.9) so I am certainly concerned.

Cuz X

It doesn't care how healthy you are. Even children are dying.

But if you’re a registered republican, you can go to huge Trump rallies without a mask because you’re not a wuss.

Devoted Exmo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> It doesn't care how healthy you are. Even children
> are dying.

It most certainly does matter what age group you fall into and whether or not you have pre-existing conditions. Your statement is unscientific, because it implies (without expressing showing any data) that all age groups and people with any kind or no health conditions are equally affected, which is absolutely not the case statistically. If you're only making the case that "at least one child has died of x," then yes, of course it's true, but only in the trivial (logical) sense.

Mortality rates are highest for those in the 80+ category, where they are in the low double digits. Often these late-life mortalities are associated with several comorbidities (pre-existing conditions), as is to be expected within that age group. Since the average life expectancy for a male in the U.S. is around 78, those in their 80s have already passed their life expectancies.

This is not to undervalue their lives (I may or may not get there myself soon enough) but to realize that statistically no productive value has been removed; their quality of life may have already been heavily compromised; and that the most medically-expensive time of a patient's life is usually the last few months. (My dad's medical bills from the final few months of his life before his death at 85 were over $100K, with, I suspect, very little advantage to show for it, from his point of view, and a lot of unnecessary suffering.)

Mortality rates for middle-aged people (say, 30-50ish) run from about one half of one percent up to one percent.

Mortality rates for children, as you mentioned in your comment, or even people up to age 20 are so far below 1% as to be nearly zero depending on the metric used, country, etc.

https://ourworldindata.org/mortality-risk-covid#case-fatality-rate-of-covid-19-by-age


In terms of comorbidities, you might be surprised to learn that Covid deaths with NO cormorbidities at all only amount to 7% of total deaths. That means 93% of all "Covid" deaths are actually "Covid-contributed" to some degree or other.

I haven't found any stats yet on how many of these cases Covid was, say, 90% responsible versus only 10% responsible, or how they would even work out a valid metric for that.

If you logically can make the connection in your science-brain between this little factoid and the mortality by age demographic directly above it, you might correctly deduce that "Covid deaths" are overwhelmingly biased against the elderly with pre-existing conditions, most likely pulmonary related (COPD, etc.), since Covid mainly attacks the lungs.

And this isn't from some right-wing conspiracy site, this is from the CDC.

Quoting: "For 7% of the deaths, COVID-19 was the only cause mentioned. For deaths with conditions or causes in addition to COVID-19, on average, there were 2.5 additional conditions or causes per death."

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm#Comorbidities

Mortality rates for younger people are rising, probably because they think it's okay to go to crowded beaches, barbecues with friends, bars, etc.

Statistics are from populations, so apply to populations, not individuals.
Therefore statistics are not predictive of an outcome for an individual.

Soooo, when you get this, it's you vs. the virus.
It is a fight to the death. Only one comes out alive.

That's why to 'survive,' the virus MUST find another host.



But now, I'm off to buy a lottery ticket at the local mart, because the last guy there bought a 100% winning ticket ;-)

But ... but ... but I was soooooooooo close to winning the lottery. My ticket was only one number off.

Dr. No Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Statistics are from populations, so apply to
> populations, not individuals.
> Therefore statistics are not predictive of an
> outcome for an individual.

Yes that is literally the definition of "statistic" vs. "anecdote."

> Therefore statistics are not predictive of an
> outcome for an individual.

That is incorrect. If a statistical rule says that 99.9% of people will die by the age of 100, any undifferentiated individual's likelihood of dying by that age is 99.9%.

If a statistical rule says that 18% of all people aged 80 or above who contract COVID-19 will die, and an individual in that age range is infected, she stands an 18% chance of dying.

Statistics are absolutely guides to outcomes for individuals because those individuals are part of the pool from which the percentages were derived and to which they apply.

The a priori probability that one ticket buyer will win the lottery are exactly the same as for the entire pool of buyers.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/04/2020 06:41PM by Lot's Wife.

She doesn’t stand an 18% chance of dying because there are too many other variables but she does stand the same chance of winning the lottery. But you must know that because I’ve never studied statistics.

Statistics derive from groups with similar characteristics. If a group has an 18% fatality rate, that rate applies to all of its members. The variables are subsumed within the rate.

So yes, if a person who fits the characteristics of the group is infected by the disease, that person's probability of dying is precisely that of the group as a whole: 18%.

People over 80 have a similar characteristic not similar characteristics.

You actually said what I said (characteristic v.characteristics) but you declined to use your expertise in statistics to be interesting and educational. I know you can do it. Just bite the bullet, agree, and then elucidate.

We’ll both feel good afterwards. :)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/05/2020 12:55AM by thingsithink.

You said the 18% doesn't apply to any individual in the class. By definition it does.

I'm not sure how one can get more incorrect than what you said.

Sometimes I do something stupid and cut my hand or finger or I burn myself. At least, that is temporary pain and a temporary wound.
I don't recommend making mistakes with your life or eyes or other internal vital organs. Once it is gone, it is gone and no doctor will be able to replace your eye ball or bring you back to life.

This has been a message from Stupid People Inc. We make the future a little more shiny!

~~~~iceman9090

Let me get this straight. Someone who already had the virus died from it after he went to a barbeque. Is that correct?
As a result of this person attending the barbeque can it be confirmed that anyone else contracted the virus?
Did the victm contract the virus at the barbeque?
If not I miss the point of the post!

No. One person attended the barbecue who knew he had tested positive, but was asymptomatic. IIRC, he was also within the generally accepted two week window for recovery. He thought that since he was asymptomatic, no one could catch the virus from him.

He was wrong about that. He passed the virus on to another man, who died from it.

I missed the point also ---- another one of Dave's posts!!!

I could not pull up the article.

Translation-- A man with the virus --- dies from the virus!!!! Alert all mainstream media a 'miracle'????

Definitely BAN all barbeques in California!!!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/04/2020 02:05PM by spiritist.

+spiritist:
I can send you the full article since I save such things into files.

Here is a summary:
Name = Macias
Age = 51
Male
had diabetes and was overweight.
Ban was lifted in California i early June.
His friends declared they were having a BBQ.
Macias was excited and went.
No one at the party wore face masks, The Washington Post reported. It’s not clear how many people attended.
A few days later, Macias got a phone call from a friend, NBC News reported.
“Our understanding is that a gentleman had called him and said, ‘Hey I was at the party, I knew I was positive. I didn’t tell anybody,’ ” said Gustavo Lopez, CNN reported. The friend mistakenly thought he couldn’t infect others because he had no symptoms.

In other words, that nameless friend infected Macias.

Macias began feeling ill and tested positive for coronavirus Jun 18, 2020, CNN reported. He posted a heartfelt warning to Facebook a few days later.

“I went out a couple of weeks ago ... because of my stupidity I put my mom and sisters and my family’s health in jeopardy,” he wrote in the Jun 20, 2020 post, CNN reported.

On June 21, 2020, Macias is dead.

~~~~iceman9090

Thanks for the information I didn't see or understand from the post!!

People with the virus should be more careful! Actually, a relative wanted to come over to talk some business and I said wait, you had the virus didn't you? Then said we can do everything over the phone and I will send anything you need.

He was from California and was 'offended' and apparently is not interested in the 'business' we were to discuss. That is all ok with me but sorry he was offended.

I wonder how the "friend" with no symptoms is feeling about himself now.

"the first round of COVID outbreaks was driven on population density; the current one, on the density of the population."

People are stupid.

About every other house on my street is having a "family" gathering for outdoor bbq and party (4th of July). Way too many extended families/friends have shown up (20 cars on a two block street). That's how the virus is spreading and surprising people.

My area is a hotspot.

This is why I love animals.
They are alert and avoid danger as much as they can.

If a chicken was 20 feet tall it would eat you.

Sure. It would taste like dinosaur.

Headline : "Penn State student dies of COVID-19 complications"

Headline : "17-Year-Old Died After Attending Florida Church’s “COVID Party”

And parents treated ber with hydroxychloroquine.

As well as bleach administered intravenously.

Are you serious? I'll guess it's a subtle jab. But how sad that I could be wrong about that.

Florence, I jest.

I'm merely indicating that the source for one sort of junk science is often the source for more junk science.

Be careful which prophet you choose to follow.

Good point.

I was startled at first but then realized no way anyone could be serious about such a stupid idea. Could they? :/

"That Lot's Wife thinks she's writing koans and should be treated accordingly."

--Some deacon angry that he can't be a scout anymore

I saw my father last week. He is 84 and pissed that he is an Eagle Scout but there are no more Mormon Scouts!

The sad news is that both that teens parents are medical professionals.

The level of stupidity in their parenting is beyond belief.

a young girl died after getting exposed and taking hydroquinone (sp?)

let's look at this in depth..
- She had cancer at age 2 and had an autoimmune issue that needed to be managed as a result.
- Her parents CHOOSE to have her go to a big church function, no mask or social distancing.
Her PARENTS choose to give her Hydrochloroquine (sp?)
- Young girl died.

I assume the media will blame a certain politician for this girl's death

When I first heard of that case, I felt sorry for the girl's parents. But then when I read the details of what happened, it made me angry. Her mother deliberately put her in harm's way. She should be held accountable.

Yes, her parents were fools. But honestly, there could be a lot more leadership from above.

I'll give you an example in contrast. Maryland has a Republican governor, Larry Hogan. Whenever he holds a press conference, he and all of the people speaking with him have masks on (they will only take the masks down when they are right in front of the podium and microphone.) He does not organize nor attend large rallies or meetings of any kind. He encourages everyone to wear a mask and practice social distancing (and unlike our president, he has never belittled or demeaned those who do wear masks and social distance.) He has made sure that everyone in the state who wants a test can get one, on the same day they make the request.

That folks, is *leadership*. He doesn't have a huge, inflated ego to feed. When the pandemic hit, he turned over the day-to-day running of our state to the Lieutenant Governor so that he could focus solely on pandemic response. He models the kind of behavior that he wants the citizens of the state to practice. I can tell you that since mid-March, absolutely everything in Maryland has been on-message. There is no confusion here. Everyone knows what must be done, and as a result, compliance has generally been high.

We've had our struggles here, but when I go out, something like 98% of the people I see have masks on, and are trying to social distance. The result is that our coronavirus numbers in Maryland have been constantly dropping, and in fact, are pretty darn good.

Yes, I would like to see some genuine leadership coming from the White House. It might have helped over the past few months, and it might help now.

+nonmo_1:
"I assume the media will blame a certain politician for this girl's death"

==You mean Donald? It's normal. Donald downplayed the COVID-19. He was saying that Hydrochloroquine is the solution. The USA was slow to respond. Canada was faster. The fastest, I think it was Taiwan and South Korea. China was very fast too with their gungho communist attitude. That's how those countries drove down their infections.

All countries that played chicken head in the sand, screwed themselves big time. Donald is blaming China for the spread of the virus but he does not include himself on his list of blames.


~~~~iceman9090