COVID-19 news - Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale
Sweden Has Become the World's Cautionary Tale
By Peter S. Goodman, The New York Times

Source:
https://ca.yahoo.com/news/sweden-become-worlds-cautionary-tale-121752098.html

TEXT EXTRACT:
This is what has happened: Not only have thousands more people died than in neighboring countries that imposed lockdowns, but Sweden’s economy has fared little better.


In Britain, Prime Minister Boris Johnson — previously hospitalized with COVID-19 — reopened pubs and restaurants last weekend in a bid to restore normal economic life.


More than 3 months later, the coronavirus is blamed for 5,420 deaths in Sweden, according to the World Health Organization. That might not sound especially horrendous compared with the more than 129,000 Americans who have died. But Sweden is a country of only 10 million people. Per million people, Sweden has suffered 40% more deaths than the United States, 12 times more than Norway, 7 times more than Finland and 6 times more than Denmark.


Sweden’s central bank expects its economy to contract by 4.5% this year, a revision from a previously expected gain of 1.3%. The unemployment rate jumped to 9% in May from 7.1% in March. “The overall damage to the economy means the recovery will be protracted, with unemployment remaining elevated,” Oxford Economics concluded in a recent research note.

This is more or less how damage caused by the pandemic has played out in Denmark, where the central bank expects that the economy will shrink 4.1% this year and where joblessness has edged up to 5.6% in May from 4.1% in March.

In short, Sweden suffered a vastly higher death rate while failing to collect on the expected economic gains.

Collectively, Scandinavian consumers are expected to continue spending far more robustly than in the United States, said Thomas Harr, global head of research at Danske Bank, emphasizing those nations’ generous social safety nets, including national health care systems. Americans, by contrast, tend to rely on their jobs for health care, making them more cautious about their health and their spending during the pandemic, knowing that hospitalization can be a gateway to financial calamity.

~~~~iceman9090

Add Florida to the list. The state had 15,300 new cases in one day. If it were a country, it would be the fourth highest in the world for new cases. And yet, many Floridians still will not wear masks.

Why should they? Their deity has told them the virus is a hoax.

I'm starting to wonder if Florida is the new Italy.

Wondering what your thoughts are about going back to school, Summertime is

Here in right-to-work Virginia, they’re planning on shoving us back in. No temp checks, no mask mandate, no social distance, teachers will clean/sanitize (and provide own cleaning supplies.) They’re delusional.

We’re petrified.

Cate, see my thoughts below. With no mask mandate, no temperature checks, no social distancing, etc. it will, IMO, be a disaster. There are a number of summer camps running at present with similar standards, and a number of them are crashing and burning.

I think in an area with a low positive test rate (i.e. 5% or less,) and protective measures in place (masks or face shields, temp. checks, social distancing, etc.,) a partial return could work. By partial return I mean A/B days or weeks supplemented by distance learning. A full return could be in the works for later this year, with improved testing ratios and/or a vaccine.

Often other countries are cited as being examples of why we should go back to school. But those countries are doing a lot better than we are in terms of virus transmission.

Right now teachers are starting to decide whether or not they will returning to school. I already know that a number of teachers will not be returning. How many is yet to be determined. But even my estimate of 5% or so will put many school districts into trouble. I also think it will be very difficult to find subs willing to work for their traditionally low pay.

And yes, teachers in my district are furious about the lack of cleaning and sanitary supplies. For every year that I was in the classroom, I reached deep into my own pocket to provide paper towels, tissues, disinfectant cleaner, disinfectant wipes, hand soap (!), hand sanitizer, brooms, etc. The teachers in my district are making the valid point that if the district has traditionally not provided these items, what makes anyone think it will start now? I have never, ever (apart from the summer break) had a desk or countertop wiped down that I didn't do myself.

Cate, I know that you've got to be petrified. I'm petrified as well, and I think I'll be going into a situation that is better than yours. One of my terrors is the potential to get transferred into one of my district's "hot zones." I'm hearing that something like 1/4 or 1/5 of the people getting tested in the worst zone are coming up positive.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 07/13/2020 12:05PM by summer.

Summer: I hear ya. Those foreign countries don’t do schools on the cheap like the US South traditionally has. My school system has been woefully underfunding for literally decades. We have lead in the drinking fountains and Legionnaires in the HVAC cooling towers, among other ongoing problems. 5 years ago outsourced custodians to lowest bidder. The schools are now filthy.
For nearly a decade teachers have covered classes for substitute shortages. How will that be expressed next year with coronavirus? However parents have been charged with checking their kid’s temps before sending them in. That’s reassuring.
School Board is hellbent on putting them in at 50% which means no social distancing. How likely are they to get classes evenly split when they can’t even even get kids to and from with the inadequate bus system?
Just heard our teacher of the year from about 3 years ago is retiring despite telling me last winter he had about 5 more years. What a shame. Sure he’s the first of many.
Meanwhile our only hope is our Democratic physician governor last week said if the cases keep going up he’ll put us back in phase 2 which means no school. I’m thinking that’s our fate. I certainly hope so.

Good points.


-------------------
> Those foreign countries don’t
> do schools on the cheap like the US South
> traditionally has. My school system has been
> woefully underfunding for literally decades. We
> have lead in the drinking fountains and
> Legionnaires in the HVAC cooling towers, among
> other ongoing problems. 5 years ago outsourced
> custodians to lowest bidder. The schools are now
> filthy.

The US is learning the hard way a lesson it's already learned and forgotten multiple times in the past: if you pay only for Third World infrastructure, you get only Third World infrastructure. The result is under-educated children and the occasional collapse of your healthcare system.


----------------
> Meanwhile our only hope is our Democratic
> physician governor last week said if the cases
> keep going up he’ll put us back in phase 2 which
> means no school. I’m thinking that’s our fate.
> I certainly hope so.

Agreed. In a place like what you describe, reopening the schools prematurely will kill many, many people.

If the federal government won't step up with guidance and enforcement, people are caught like members of various Mormon wards: playing leadership roulette.

Delusional AND stupid...and the children and their families will pay the price and none of the politicians will own up to their f'up either. You can bet on that.

Sounds like a hot new market for Mormonism.

We live in Texas close to Houston with our 3 children. Our covid numbers are rising and I am worried about sending my children to school next month.

You should be. I have nearly a quarter century in the classroom, and my best advice to parents is to have your children do online learning if you are able. I realize that many parents can't do that, and have to work, but if you have the option available to do online learning for your kids, take it.

There are simply too many variables in a school that are difficult to control. Schools are germ factories in any given year. I've seen colds, stomach bugs, and flu fly around a school building. Even if kids and staff are wearing masks or face shields, there is still a big danger.

Many parents who have to work will send their kids to school sick. They might mask it with a dose of Tylenol beforehand. I've seen kids walk in the door and immediately start to cry because they feel so unwell. I've had kids sleep away the entire day because their moms can't come to pick them up. Send a kid to the nurse's office with a raging fever (where there is already a long line,) and suddenly mom can't be reached. I've seen kids projectile vomit across their desk and their neighbor's desk. I've seen the janitor take up to two hours to get to my classroom to clean up the mess. What happens then is I clean it up. My meager bottle of Fantastik (that I, myself provide) isn't up to this pandemic.

There are dozens and dozens of logistical issues to solve. How will kids use a communal bathroom? Get water? Eat? Sharpen pencils? Get grades? Etc. I can tell you that teachers are losing sleep trying to get all of this figured out.

Plus, some kids (and their parents) have a lot of trouble with compliance. They are the special snowflakes who feel that *they* do not need to wear a mask or face shield. I will be waiting for reports from summer school to see how tightly this requirement is enforced. Plus you have little kids who want to throw crayons or tantrum on the floor. You may have middle and high schoolers who want to get rambunctious or start a fight.

IMO the only kids for whom you can make a clear argument that they are better off in school are kids who do not have computers, internet access, or adequate supervision. I've seen the argument that "kids need socialization," and that doesn't hold water for me. They have eighteen years to socialize. A year at home won't do any lasting damage.

I personally am willing to give it my best try. The neighborhood where my school is located isn't that bad for Covid. But there are parts of my school district that are on fire. Teachers in my district are already trying to figure out how many deaths we can expect for both students and staff. I think for staff we are figuring eight.

Today our school enrollment started they gave us the option of online school at home. All my 3 kids are now enrolled for online education.
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/7/20-0764_article
Texas is so hot our A/C is running non stop.

A school district close by

https://www.khou.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/no-in-person-learning-fort-bend-isd-will-begin-school-year-100-online/285-a56cf53b-5a88-4bba-b2d2-8879d03c9cb3?fbclid=IwAR2lH9kFc4te9D23fKvf8wm-KsnLDVIMDERL-QSUMDJQnPlJ1_EUgEa3cuQ

Covid cases per capita:

US - 10,493 per one million. Worldwide rank #12
Sweden - 7,507 per one million. Worldwide rank #18

Cautionary?

Why?

Because it shows what happens if you don't impose masks, social distancing, etc. You get worse health outcomes than your neighbors but also an economic depression, and then you have to adopt everyone else's precautions after all and hope for the best.

As for the United States comparison, the world has more than one "cautionary tale." So you are right. The United States is indeed defining the worst case scenario among the advanced economies.

The bottom line is that the world views the United States as a healthcare catastrophe and hence not an interesting test case. Sweden retains more international credibility; it is taken seriously, so people interpret its mistakes as "the" cautionary example.

csuprovograd Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Covid cases per capita:
>
> US - 10,493 per one million. Worldwide rank #12
> Sweden - 7,507 per one million. Worldwide rank
> #18
>
> Cautionary?
>
> Why?

The USA has many more large urban areas. Sweden does have a few cities and some towns, but the rural nature of most of its land area should mean a much lower death rate.

You also want to compare Sweden to its neighbors, Norway and Denmark, which did much better with lockdowns and safety measures in place. I remember early on in the epidemic seeing Swedes sitting in tightly-packed cafes (without masks on,) and thinking they were insane.

There is no correlation between urbanization and death rates in the OECD countries. Germany, France, and Japan are urban societies; Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan have much more densely populated regions, and yet all these places do better than the United States.

The key variable is not concentration but rather the efficacy of government policy. That is why both Sweden and the US have done so exceptionally badly.

>The USA has many more large urban areas. Sweden does have a few cities and some towns, but the rural nature of most of its land area should mean a much lower death rate.

85% of Sweden's population live in urban areas

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sweden

"About 85% of the population live in urban areas.[253] The capital city Stockholm has a municipal population of about 950,000 (with 1.5 million in the urban area and 2.3 million in the metropolitan area). The second- and third-largest cities are Gothenburg and Malmö. Greater Gothenburg counts just over a million inhabitants and the same goes for the western part of Scania, along the Öresund. The Öresund Region, the Danish-Swedish cross-border region around the Öresund that Malmö is part of, has a population of 4 million."

Sweden's estimated population this year was 10,343,403[

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=BE-cA4UK07c&time_continue=317&ebc=ANyPxKq6EV39GXHjApXHj1R1S4qRvCi7YbCSytRWN-l01EuyzVDEXeyecnSds2wwNy0g6ojbid8MupTqEQ-ptCnGDz_5fJtZ8g&feature=emb_logo

South Korea:
Case #1 same day as USA.
Current CoViD-19 death total: 289

If USA were equally capable we would have right now approximately 1,445 deaths.

On a bright note, I think it's pretty much gone in New Zealand. Good for the Kiwis!