And not in a good way.

I would expect that baptisms have ground to a near-halt. Marriages are probably down, and I expect in 2021 births will be way down.

On top of that, hardly any stakes being created. I don't expect a wave of stake terminations until at least a couple years from now. They will have to see what the activity level is once (if) there is a vaccine for covid-19. I do foresee a lot of pent up demand for rearranging or dissolving stakes when the dust settles.

Let the chaos begin!!

I'm guessing we won't hear the statistical report. They don't like to broadcast the faith demoting stats.

Statistics they do not wish to share become, "For ecclesiastical purposes only". Such is the data on resignations.

+1

Births will be way down?

WHAT ARE PEOPLE DOING at home?

The Covid boom won’t hit until the end of the year

We have these things called contraceptives. Do you really think anyone who has just lost their job and are facing the prospect of eventual eviction is going to think "hey, great time to start a family/have another child"?

We will be 6 months into the serious US job disruption part of the pandemic in a couple of weeks. If there was a big surge of pregnancies that happened starting in March, obstetricians would already know about it.

Ain't happening.

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> We have these things called contraceptives. Do you
> really think anyone who has just lost their job
> and are facing the prospect of eventual eviction
> is going to think "hey, great time to start a
> family/have another child"?
>
> We will be 6 months into the serious US job
> disruption part of the pandemic in a couple of
> weeks. If there was a big surge of pregnancies
> that happened starting in March, obstetricians
> would already know about it.
>
> Ain't happening.

Of course contraceptives are not 100% effective, and many Mormons are still opposed to any form of birth control. So I would still expect to see a bit of a bump.

"So I would still expect to see a bit of a bump."

A baby bump, of course. :-)

Not talking about people getting poorer and struggling and such, but people staying home more often, not going out as much, with extra money and too much time on their hands and faces.

More time and money now equals more babies and children soon, who need to be schooled and churched, and shocked (by today's world) and abhorred, and broken and fixed, which causes more work and stress later. It's an endless cycle.

I'd prefer a motorcycle.

Not what you are thinking. It has been a stellar year of abstinence this year. Come to find out, the spouse does not like to be called out on some of her antics. Seems to be an anti-aphrodisiac for us both. Anyway...TMI....sorry.

Wouldn't be surprised if they stopped reporting numbers altogether.

Financials were first to go and now membership numbers.

what Devoted Exmo said.

They may stop reporting baptisms and "increase in children of record" , the latter being weasel-words for an inflated version of what used to be called "infants blessed in Sacrament Meeting". They will obviously, and appropriately put an asterisk on the 2020 baptism figures, but I doubt they will stop reporting them altogether. Perhaps they will surprise me.

I don't see how they can stop reporting number of wards/branches and number of stakes. Those are values that can be independently verified. Active members know what ward or stake they are in, so it wouldn't be all that hard to maintain a list, whether the Church releases those figures or not.

Knowing the number of stakes is a highly elastic measure of the size of the active membership, but still, it does give us a ballpark figure. There is a rough minimum and maximum size for a stake or district.

I'm sure that all reported church stats are cooked! They edit, massage, manipulate Everything that they publish!!!


How can churchco stats be independently verified except on a local basis?

ChurchCo members only rely on information from Dear Leader, so even if they're reported outside the established channel, Mormons won't hear or respect them.

Name one stake that was falsely reported to exist, or falsely reported to not exist.

They can massage baptisms or even missionaries in the field, to some extent. It is easy to verify the existence of a stake. They couldn't fake that without getting caught. Some member somewhere would say WTF.

The stake with HQ in Dhahran, Saudi Arabia is unlisted.
It exists, but is secretly not on any lists.
The Saudi government allows the LDS meetings,
but the Saudi religious police do not like it at all.
Big conflict - ongoing struggle
. . . so it has been decided for many decades to keep it somewhat secret . . .

Ah, thanks, that makes sense. There are probably some other under-the-radar units in China and some other Islamic nations.

I was mostly referring to LDS Inc's tendency to inflate their membership numbers, and how it would be very difficult to inflate the number of stakes. But I can see where they might deflate the number of stakes/districts/congregations in places where they are not particularly welcome.

I don't follow the church's statistical reports. Do they report every stake by name or is it a grand total?

The report is a grand total, but there are news releases when a stake is reorganized, created, or disbanded, listing what wards are created or reassigned, and I think the stake presidency is even named.

And there is a general Church Directory, and various websites like cumorah.com that also list these same changes.

There are roughly a hundred thousand ward and branch clerks who regularly need to communicate with other wards and stakes. It is a sure thing that they would spot inaccuracies in the directory and start asking questions.

ETA: http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2020/09/new-branches-created-in-botswana-and.html
One of the sites that reports changes in church units.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/02/2020 12:16PM by Brother Of Jerry.

Will this years generation be called Covid19?
They will be socially distant.

I didn't think about the kids who are growing up right now. The COVID Generation. Poor souls. I'm guessing the generation will start with kids who graduated from college in 2020 and go back until Pre-K kids go to in-class school.

Where my demographers at?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/2020 12:01PM by Beth.

observations probably prophetic
they will want to terminate the reporting of membership numbers and baptisms and so on . . . but that will probably be out in the future before the end of statistical reporting. Hard to tell when they get bold enough to refuse to report membership numbers.

probably many years will go by with very few new stakes

not too many cancellations of wards and stakes for a few years and here's why: with COVID-19 pandemic, people will get used to meetings all over the world with only a small number attending. That will become somewhat normal. Eventually (dust settles) and a lot of stakes/wards will be consolidated.

baptisms obviously low for a while, and probably not returning to pre-2020 levels. not much they can do to stop this trend

The new LDS "normal" out in 2025 and beyond will probably be: lower retention rates, high youth dropout rates, much fewer temple marriages, it will be quite "normal" for typical wards to see regular members go inactive and cancel membership, marrying nonmembers becoming somewhat normal, low attendance at sacrament meetings, quite small number of actives in typical ward, lower percentage of 18 yr olds sign up for mission, many ward/stake consolidations, more mainstreaming of doctrines in lesson manuals (everything general and vague - no deep doctrines), continuing changes to temple ceremonies depending on what seems to make members satisfied . . .

That all sounds entirely reasonable to me. The next 20 years should be an interesting time to be a Mormonism watcher

Remember when the stake consolidated five stakes into three? I think it was in Spain. Their Church News headline read, "Three New Stakes Organized in Spain (or wherever)!" In the article it did, indeed, say that the five stakes had been reduced to three, but you had to actually read it to see that it wasn't the success story that they had advertised. Anyway, they do that stuff all the time, so no matter what actually happens, the news will be good. The truth often doesn't come out until leadership starts shaming the members.