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Posted by: Free Man ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 08:26AM

I mentioned a few months ago, when people were criticizing Sweden's more limited lockdown, you have to look at the long term.

U.S. policy went from flatten the curve, to prolong the pandemic.

Go to the chart listing all the countries and click on the arrows in the header "deaths/1M Pop". That will list the countries in order by death rate. Sweden is ranked 13, while U.S. is number 11.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Also, click on each country and get more details. The graph of deaths is flat for Sweden, but still rising for the U.S. It is essentially over for Sweden. Sweden's health chief says "judge me in a year".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xh9wso6bEAc

You also want to consider the lives lost from extending lockdown - those who didn't get medical care and died of cancer or heart attacks or whatever. Also suicides as businesses fail and unemployment rises.

https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2020/06/09/how-many-more-will-die-from-fear-of-the-coronavirus/

from site:
In a New York Times op-ed today, Cleveland Clinic CEO and President Tom Mihaljevic, M.D., and Mayo Clinic President and CEO Gianrico Farrugia, M.D., write: “More than 100,000 Americans have died from Covid-19. Beyond those deaths are other casualties of the pandemic — Americans seriously ill with other ailments who avoided care because they feared contracting the coronavirus at hospitals and clinics. The toll from their deaths may be close to the toll from Covid-19.”

Drs. Mihaljevic and Farrugia point to “sizable decreases” in new cancer diagnoses (45 percent) and reports of heart attacks (38 percent) and strokes (30 percent).

“To prevent further harm, people with serious, complex and acute illnesses must now return to the doctor for care,” they write, adding, “The novel coronavirus will not go away soon, but its systemic side effects of fear and deferred care must.”
end quote

I've quoted many experts, but here again is Michael Osterholm's words from March:

https://www.globalresearch.ca/12-experts-questioning-coronavirus-panic/5707532

quote
Consider the effect of shutting down offices, schools, transportation systems, restaurants, hotels, stores, theaters, concert halls, sporting events and other venues indefinitely and leaving all of their workers unemployed and on the public dole. The likely result would be not just a depression but a complete economic breakdown, with countless permanently lost jobs, long before a vaccine is ready or natural immunity takes hold.

[…]

[T]he best alternative will probably entail letting those at low risk for serious disease continue to work, keep business and manufacturing operating, and “run” society, while at the same time advising higher-risk individuals to protect themselves through physical distancing and ramping up our health-care capacity as aggressively as possible. With this battle plan, we could gradually build up immunity without destroying the financial structure on which our lives are based.
end quote

Then there are these professors who question the general lockdown, and it's costs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z3plSbCbkSA
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hrTFXwLXUC8
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FcnQPInwVNQ&t=45s



This professor espouses zero covid, but has difficulty addressing questions. Near the end, she is asked if we should have a zero influenza policy, as it is now killing 5 times more than covid.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_9D8qmGjki8

In one video above, the Nobel prize winning professor from Stanford says if we tested for influenza like we have covid, the death rate would be many times higher.

So it will be interesting to see how we handle future respiratory disease.

I do know the economic damage has been masked by government money, which we don't have - have to print it. Airlines are announcing big layoffs if they don't get more aid, 40,000 workers.

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Posted by: Free Man ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 08:29AM

Should clarify, interviewer states influenza is killing 5 times more than covid now in the U.K.

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Posted by: kentish ( )
Date: September 14, 2020 10:46AM

While in Australia a report at the end of July (a winter month there) revealed only 85 lab confirmed cases of flu were reported in the last two weeks of June compared with 22047 in the same period in 2019. I don't have latest figures. No reason was given but perhaps the personal measures, face masks and hand washing, against CV have an impact with flu, too.

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Posted by: azsteve ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 12:02PM

I have to wonder why as of today, Spetember 12th, the deaths from Covid-19 in Utah top out at only 431, one of the lowest in the US. Is it because Covid-19 tends to spread more in locations where alcohol is being served? Is it because mormons are more obedient to the lockdown rules than people in other areas? Is Gawd protecting the Mormons more (had to say it) then everyone else in the country? Generally, the Covid-19 seems to like feeding more in the blue States. Is Utah mostly red?

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 12:41PM

Or is it because Utah is a low population state that skews younger than average, so it has a relatively small vulnerable population.

I suspect a smaller club scene also helps.

States with bigger cities and more international travel were hit first. California was an exception because San Francisco locked down almost immediately when cases were found, and southern Cal soon after.

More rural states were spared early on, but have been catching up with the early leaders. Low population states are always going to have an advantage fighting infectious disease.

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Posted by: stillanon ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 01:25PM

Plus, Utah has the youngest population in the US. Limiting deaths of people that get CV-19.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 01:38PM

You and your facts and logic are so 20th century. . .

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 05:43PM

Maine has pretty much gotten a free pass from the virus.

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Posted by: bradley ( )
Date: September 13, 2020 12:31PM

Cuz the priesthood. /s

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 01:37PM

So your argument, Free Man, is that the precautions against COVID are killing people by frightening them away from hospitals and by interrupting economic activity.

A few quick questions for you.

1) Do you remember the situation before the COVID precautions were in place? It was a time when hospitals were overwhelmed with COVID patients, there was no capacity for people who would otherwise have sought care, and the bodies were being stored in trucks on the street.

Are you telling us that collateral deaths would have been lower if we had stayed in that situation? Patients would have felt safe going to the hospital as they passed those white trucks and walking down hallways with dying people in gurneys all around? Because you seem to be saying that more people would have received healthcare for other illnesses--at a time when there weren't hospital beds available.

How do you explain that?

2) We all agree that the COVID rules have interrupted economic, educational, and other activities significantly and detrimentally. But is it your contention that letting the pandemic soar and the number of illnesses and deaths skyrocket would have been less disruptive? Because that is the implication of your argument, and it is, uh, dubious.

3) You assert that "U.S. policy went from flatten the curve, to prolong the pandemic." There are two parts to that sentence, both deserving of scrutiny.

3.A) When you say US policy was to "flatten the curve," which policy was that? The healthcare authorities wanted to flatten the curve but the White House did not; to the contrary, the White House urged everyone to skip the masks, go out to bars and restaurants, and get their kids back in school. Was that intended to flatten the curve?

3.B) You state that US policy is now "to prolong the pandemic." Can you explain that statement? Who is trying to prolong the pandemic and how?

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 03:45PM

Why do you quote Osterholm from March? He doesn't agree with your position now. As recently as last month, he advocated a six week shutdown of the country.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/07/opinion/coronavirus-lockdown-unemployment-death.html

That the US death rate now exceeds Sweden says more about our failure than any success by Sweden. Compare Sweden's numbers with those of Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Compare their curves with Sweden to see what flattening the curve really looks like.

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 05:46PM

>>That the US death rate now exceeds Sweden says more about our failure than any success by Sweden. Compare Sweden's numbers with those of Norway, Finland, and Denmark. Compare their curves with Sweden to see what flattening the curve really looks like.

I agree with all of this. Sweden did eventually come to realize that they were not building herd immunity, and in fact were trailing their Scandinavian neighbors. In time, the country reversed course.

And the U.S. death rate is a U.S. failure, and no one else's.

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Posted by: Dave the Atheist ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 05:55PM

Were you expecting something different ?

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 09:29PM

I'm not quite sure what Free Man is getting at here. If it is that we managed to create the worst of both worlds with our half-assed lockdown, then I am inclined to agree. We have pretty definitively shown we have neither the skill nor the will to do a proper lockdown. Australia has just gone through a second lockdown, and from what I can tell, has snuffed out the second wave of covid-19.

The US is going to bumble along in a state of semi-equilibrium, with the pandemic neither raging nor subdued, until there is a vaccine. We can't get our act together enough to manage anything better. BTW, the rest of the world has noticed. Nobody is looking to us for "best practices". Nobody.

Well, maybe Brazil.

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Posted by: Dr. No ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 10:10PM

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If it is that we managed to create the worst
> of both worlds with our half-assed lockdown, then
> I am inclined to agree. We have pretty
> definitively shown we have neither the skill nor
> the will to do a proper lockdown. . .
> The US is going to bumble along in a state of
> semi-equilibrium, with the pandemic neither raging
> nor subdued, until there is a vaccine. We can't
> get our act together enough to manage anything
> better.
==================

EGGzackly.
Nicely (and efficiently!) put in a nutshell.

And with the magical pre-Renaissance "thinking" we are perfecting, courtesy of Q et al, dubious even a perfect vaccine will save us.

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 10:30PM

I think I've read that only about 27% of people would be willing to get the vaccine when it's first released. This may be a part of the reason why Dr. Fauci thinks we will be living with the virus through the end of 2021.

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Posted by: lindy ( )
Date: September 16, 2020 04:47AM

Most of Australia didn't have a second wave and a second lockdown..it was really just the state of Victoria with Melbourne being the worst affected area.
Here in Western Australia we have gone 5 months with no community transfer. All our recent cases have been returned travellers who go into a 14 day hotel quarantine straight from the airport.
We are a state of about 2 and a half million people and our total death figure is nine people and one of those was a German man taken off a cruise ship for treatment who had the virus. The ship was not meant to dock here on its way from South Africa to Germany but was allowed to dock by our state Premier so that people on board could be taken to Perth hospitals. Those not having the virus were put into hotel accommodation until a plane was sent by Germany to collect them.

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Posted by: Dr. No ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 09:39PM


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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 09:48PM

LOL. Graph shows precisely why I added the comment about Brazil perhaps wanting to emulate the US. We got a good head start, but they are coming on strong.

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 10:31PM

So. much. winning.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: September 13, 2020 05:29AM

I'm tired of it already.

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: September 12, 2020 09:42PM

I keep contact with friends in Manitoba. They have about half the population of Utah, and a similar urban profile - over half the population in both areas live in a tight geographical area: Winnipeg in Manitoba, within 15 or so miles of Wasatch Front in Utah.

Manitoba has had about 1,500 total cases, 16 deaths. (not per week. That's total for the whole pandemic) Even by Canadian standards, that's outstanding. Just goes to show what is possible, even when you are not Singapore.

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Posted by: iceman9090 ( )
Date: September 14, 2020 06:25PM

+Brother Of Jerry:
Manitoba is not a popular province. In other words, they don't have too many immigrants (that travel in and out of the country). The 3 cities where immigrants mostly go to are Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal. These have been the virus hot zones.

As for the english and french people, I'm guessing Manitobans don't go to China, Cuba and various random countries much.
In other words, Manitoba is well isolated.

~~~~iceman9090

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Posted by: iceman9090 ( )
Date: September 14, 2020 06:45PM

+Free Man:
"In one video above, the Nobel prize winning professor from Stanford says if we tested for influenza like we have covid, the death rate would be many times higher."

==It doesn't matter what one guy says. Even people with a PHD sometimes say stupid things.
We need to get a sum total.

Influenza just causes fever. COVID-19 has been shown to damage lungs, even if you are young, even if you are asymptomatic.

COVID-19 is something new and we think that it should not spread.
Influenza is something that has spread since who knows when.

~~~~iceman9090

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Posted by: Dave the Atheist ( )
Date: September 13, 2020 01:43AM

The US had 1,018 Covid deaths on Friday. Canada had 0.

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Posted by: Devoted Exmo ( )
Date: September 16, 2020 09:30AM

No backing up initial assertions by Free Man?

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: September 16, 2020 11:41AM

Never.

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