I was goaded into raising this topic by a shopping trip and then seeing a cartoon.

The cartoon shows a man and woman behind a mostly empty shopping cart, inside a well-stocked grocery store.  The dialogue goes like this:

"Wow!  Everything costs an arm and an egg now!!!"

Been relying heavy on my storage to supplement my groceries.

About a year ago I got a good deal on canned goods.

Now I look at what it would cost to replace everything I'm eating and realize I'll never be able to replace it.

Yeah, my month end total for groceries shocked me. Going to take a good look at what I can cut back on.

The Mormon church should develop it's welfare program even more with their billions but....

You wait!  You know that someone high up in the church is plotting how to start raising chickens, for eggs and poultry, via the use of 'volunteer workers!'

elderolddog Wrote:
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> You wait!  You know that someone high up in the
> church is plotting how to start raising chickens,
> for eggs and poultry, via the use of 'volunteer
> workers!'


Elderolddog honestly I think missionary could learn more working with chickens for 2 years than selling their religion knocking doors for 2 years.

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/church/news/talking-turkey-church-poultry-farm-is-feeding-thousands-in-need?lang=eng

The prophet is already ahead of the game Moroni, Utah has a poultry farm.
I wonder if senior couple missionaries are in charge of the poultry farm.

You just know that they're eating omelets every day!!

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/church/news/church-welfare-farms-ranches-expect-rich-harvest-despite-coronavirus-pandemic?lang=eng

My TBM cousin would say that the lds church knew that covid would come and was prepared because the church shortened the meeting from 3 hours to 2 hours on Sundays. Now with the bird flu isn’t it marvelous that the lds church has several poultry farms? Basically everything that happens in this world is faith promoting to a True Believing Mormon. Yes, the lds church could help more with their 100 billion dollar rainy day fund but for my cousin everything strengthens her testimony of the true gospel.

Everything is faith promoting. Even chickens.


https://www.thechurchnews.com/2000/3/11/23247010/familys-poultry-farm-is-nest-egg-for-six-missions

The lds vending machines are also faith promoting.
https://cwsglobal.org/stories/hope-for-a-new-chicken-farmer-in-myanmar/
Wow I sound like I am an active lds member. I have resigned in 2013. Due to Elderolddog now I am researching “LDS poultry”.

https://uk.churchofjesuschrist.org/stand-in-need
Some “good work” is going on.

“Re: The Church Already Has An Investment in Egg Farms”

Which other religion has that?

It's a very odd feeling to find you are debating whether to go on that trip to Paris or go to the grocery store.

The world is no longer user friendly. Even Disney is now for people who can pay to go to the front of every line as the the poor watch in envy.

Disney has become a cult. No wonder Mormons love it more than anybody.

The one time I went to Disneyland, I did discover it was a magical place. Your money magically vanished, and I have in returned vanished from its walkways and entrance ports since.

I went to Disney World as an adult, and I found it to be an inferior amusement park. I was never into the whole Disney thing.

that my kids loved going to Disneyland and I'd go with them in their 20s and 30s even. I only went as they wanted me to even though I like Disneyland and I do like Disney movies as it was fun to take my kids when they were little and watch their reactions. Now, I don't watch those movies and my kids are like WHY MOM? I've never been much into animation.

BUT I notice how much things are, but I usually get what I need or want, but I don't have many mouths to feed except my dogs. Lots and lots of dog food since they've had diabetes as we have to slowly up their insulin. Anyone else have to blood sugar test their pet? We have yet to get blood out of their ear and they didn't care if we pricked the ears. But I get a lot of dog food. They have lost weight and still need more than they ever ate.

Eggs at Costco aren't so expensive. All my neighbors have chickens. I refuse. We had chickens as kids. Remember the time they gave away chicks at Easter? My mom would always get them and my dad kept them at the farm. They used to peck at our ankles. We don't eat all that many eggs.

I do note my paychecks don't go as far as they used to. That's for sure. I don't think about it much. I have my "husband" who pays the bills for the bills we have at the house we have so I don't divorce him and take half the pension NOW. I paid for the house for long enough. (He's downstairs, I'm upstairs.) I just pay anything I have.

The thing I notice the most is diet pepsi and butter for some reason.

Maybe start cutting back on how much butter you put into your diet Pepsi??

Can you get yak butter where you live?

Also an arm and an egg . . .

Modern medicine has everything for your dog that your doctors and hospitals have for you---at the same price. Two edged sword.

Right now I don't care what the price is as they are performing miracles on our hirsute child that indeed needs a miracle. But wow I feel sorry for any pet owner who doesn't have the bucks.

Helps not to put all your eggs in the Mormon basket though.

Are you simply stating the obvious? That FOOD is going up, like everything else? This is the time to go up. Everything else is. Plenty of excuses. It'll be going up tomorrow too. Anybody want to farm?

When I go out on a limb and bring up the unobvious, no one gets it!!

elderolddog Wrote:
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> When I go out on a limb and bring up the
> unobvious, no one gets it!!


When I go out on a limb, I have to be real careful... so that my limbs don't go out on me.

What goes up, must come down (except prices)...

F

The World Economic Forum ("Davos") is encouraging the inclusion of insects in your diet. For starters, the Euro-Union has approved of insect-based products to be used in food products.

I wonder what PETA's position is on this?
Do crickets feel pain when they're boiled?

Considering that most of the world happily drinks bottled yeast excrement, which also happens to be both a liver toxin and neurotoxin, crickets should be no problem at all.

It's all in your state of mind.

Help me out here, caffiend. Although I would love to have been there when Hans Castorp and his acquaintances were getting treatment at the sanitarium, I don't know much about Davos as it has subsequently evolved.

So what exactly do you mean by "encouraging" the consumption of insects? The WEF is a talk shop. Its participants may advocate things but the organization and the event don't "encourage" anything. Wouldn't it be equally accurate to say that Davos recommends terraforming Mars, which I believe was proposed there by your boy Elon? Alternatively, doesn't your approach mean that the GOP advocates the elimination of Jewish space lasers?

Words, meanings. . . you know.

I'm spending a lot of money each month, and almost all of it is on food.

My sweet, elderly cat died last August. He had diabetes for the last seven years of his life, which cost an extra $80-90 a month for supplies above and beyond ordinary veterinary care. But for his last year and a half, he also developed pancreatitis, IBD, and finally, kidney disease. Did that ever get expensive! I'm taking a break from having a pet right now, in part because my wallet needs a breather.

Wow. Your cat got better medical care than 40% of the human population.

He got better medical care than I do, since I tend to neglect my own health. But I was very diligent about his care. I got proficient at giving injections and administering fluids. Towards the end, I could tell that he had had enough, though.

I miss the little guy. He was great company.

That's the thing about pets. They usually cost relatively little but once they've taken control of your soul, you're stuck with substantial maintenance costs--and the repair bills can be astronomical.

And then your kid brings home another one. . .

My girls have good medical insurance. I pay a lot for it. Pretty much $100/month each.

Wow, you are generous. $100 a month is my husband’s allowance.

Yes, a lot of people are getting pet insurance now. I will have to consider it with my next pet.

If mormons can pray to end a drought, expecting to get a favorable response from ghawd, why can’t they pray to ghawd for a temporary reduction in tithing?

If you believe in miracles, how about not only praying for respite from tithing, but also a one-time refund of last year’s tithing amount?

It’s not like ghawd can’t afford it. And the very fact that a TBM had the faith to pay tithing confirms the TBM’s worthiness!

Sometimes it’s easy to support the notion that modern mormonism serves neither ghawd nor the general membership.

I think that a lot of families must surely be having trouble paying their bills and also paying tithing. Tithing is bound to take a hit.

Imagine having to spend Eternity in a lesser kingdom because you felt feeding your family was more important than tithing.

Of course, you’d totally deserve that penalty . . .

Too bad there’s no process for a redress of grievance with ghawd, you know, like getting him to change his mind about an eternal principle or a saving ordnance.

This is what happens when you shut down most of the world's economy for eighteen months.

I'm guessing that it's more continued supply chain problems, combined with a labor shortage and laborers now getting higher wages.

I know in my profession (teaching/education,) we were expecting the labor shortage for a long time due to the retirements of the baby boomers. We thought it might start hitting a decade ago, but it held off at that point. It took the pandemic for older teachers to start heading for the door in large numbers. I'm one of a small group of boomer teachers still working. The new, young teachers are great, but there's not enough of them.

There are also a lot of options for workers these days, i.e. working from home.

Yes, it was covid lockdowns. Nothing to do with avian flu resulting in the destruction of poultry, war in parts of the world we rely on for grain. Weather patterns destroying crops of everything, including corn (there's even a lettuce shortage). Corn, wheat, eggs. Products or byproducts in nearly everything. But yes, it's definitely the covid lockdowns from a year and a half ago causing the increase in grocery prices.

I'm still seeing 10 for $10 specials on canned goods at the local grocery. Canned goods haven't gone up much. Meats are pretty expensive, but they have always been expensive. Eggs of course are absurd, but that is caused almost entirely by bird flu, which has a near 100% mortality rate.

Basically inflation has been below 2% at an annualized rate over the last 6 months. That's largely because of falling gasoline prices and falling rent and falling used car prices. Those are basically one-time events, so there is not much room for additional drops in the near future, and there still may be other prices suffering from inflation. And if you are not looking to rent an apartment or buy a used car, you haven't noticed the improvement. You should be noticing the gasoline is no longer in the $5 range.

Food inflation basically stopped 6 months ago too, but six dollar eggs tends to drown out the creamed corn at 10 for $10 and canned beans at 89 cents.

Just looked up the data.

Overall inflation in December was down slightly to 6.5% with core inflation (overall rate minus food and energy) at 5.7%. So energy is still a factor (thanks, Vlad).

But even without that distortion, prices are still rising at nearly three times the rate the authorities want to see. The Fed will accordingly continue tightening the spigots for some time to come.

Fine, but where can I get a dozen eggs for $2.99?

elderolddog Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Fine, but where can I get a dozen eggs for $2.99?


Only from the chickens!

PEOPLE are the middlemen-

Don't get 'em from them.

They're free-range...

Really chicken

I should have explained in more detail where I got those numbers from. As I understand it, the usual inflation number is a comparison of the Consumer Price Index versus what the CPI was year earlier.

I took the numbers I cited mostly from Paul Krugman's latest column (1/31), where he calculated the inflation rate based on a comparison of the CPI to 6 months ago rather than 12 months ago, then multiply by 2 to annualize the rate.

His rationale was that month to month numbers are too "noisy", with random small bounces up and down, that get magnified when multiplied by 12. For instance, the CPI for December was actually 0.1% lower than the CPI for Nov, so month to month inflation in Dec was negative - that is, deflationary.

He argued that with the rapid runup in inflation from around Oct 1920 to Jun 2022, followed by a steep decline after June '22, that looking backward a year to calculate inflation is too far back. It does not properly reflect a fast changing CPI.

So, 1 month too short, 12 months too long, 6 months a compromise to minimize noise but note rapid changes.

So, the 6 month change in CPI for December, annualized, was 2%.

The CPI food index for December was 0.3% (3.6% annualized), up from 0.2% (2.4% annualized). Food is not inflating at the rate it was a year ago.

I am checking rent prices on zillow because I may have to move in the coming year. Prices in SLC, which are typically in the $2k+ range for newer apartments, have dropped two to three hundred dollars in the last 4 months.

Long story short, inflation was pretty grim last summer. It has since dropped substantially, though the current CPI is still 6.5% higher than it was a year ago. If the CPI stays like it is right now (which may or may not happen), inflation 6 months from now will look wonderfully low, compared to the sky high CPI of last summer. It is already better than most people realize.

There are three important measures of inflation: the CPI, the PPI, and the GDP deflator, each of which measures somewhat different things. You are right to use the CPI.

There are a couple of problems with that, however, in this case. First, month-over-month data is volatile and so are month-over-month readings over a six-month period. If you want to smooth out the discrepancies, quarter-over-quarter figures may make more sense.

More importantly, using core inflation (consumer inflation minus inflation in volatile food and energy) is a mistake when the major factors in a particular period are food and energy. In that situation, overall consumer inflation is a better indicator of trends--and that reading came in at 0.3% in December, meaning that the month-over-month number becomes 3.6% when annualized, and that is still close to 2X what the target rate is.

The other problem, more economic than inflationary, is the source of the inflation. Among those are the surge in demand after the end of the acute stage of COVID in the US and other rich countries--which is great news--but other factors are the supply-chain interruptions caused by China's ill-advised COVID strategy and by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Can we safely presume that China's transition into a period of open COVID spread will not result in another supply-chain disruption? How about the possibility that Moscow will launch another phase of the war, employ WMDs, or seek to block traffic through the Black Sea more efficiently?

The truth, I think, is that inflation is subsiding; but with an annualized rate closer to 4% than 2% and with serious inflationary shocks possible and perhaps likely in major parts of the world economy, it's premature to conclude that we are out of the woods. The Fed is right to shift to hikes of 25 basis points rather than the erstwhile 75 beeps, but I don't think anyone can rest assured that inflation has been vanquished.

Wait and see. . .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/01/2023 10:42PM by Lot's Wife.

I agree with your analysis but don't forget that the Ukraine war is also effecting wheat and fertilizer prices. With that said, someone is spending money. We see restaurants full on weekends, airports and planes are all full, on both coasts. We live in the Carolinas and we are starting to see a lot of Teslas mixed in with existing large trucks and SUVs.

Yes, my reference to the Ukraine War was specifically about agricultural markets and food prices. That's why I said that overall inflation is a better indicator today than core inflation, which would be preferable in normal times.

Agreed. We’ve had a pretty good run the last six months of inflation subsiding, but there are no guarantees that apple cart will not be upset. You listed the known unknowns, and we don’t know the unknown unknowns.

Rentals in my area are going for about $2.1k for a nice two-bedroom. Sales prices for homes are still rising, I think due to tight stock for now.

I recall reading an article about an old mining town in the north-central area of the country (South Dakota?) where you can move into a property and live there for free.  I guess the assumption is that you'll fix it up, to make it liveable and if enough people do that...something, something, something...

Seemed a little late but someone just wished me Happy New Year. All I could think to say was, "yeah--good luck with that!"

On the other hand we are all having the best Argentine empanadas ever for a celebration on Friday. I don't care what they cost. I would take out a loan if necessary.

It's now impacting my budget; it rarely did before.

It's been a perfect storm.

My electricity seems stable, but my gas bill has gone up by quite a bit.

It comes bundled with the electric bill.

One wonders if ghawd is going to raise tithing to a higher percentage to make ends meet!

Of course, it would be worth it... Plus it would weed out the doubters!!

I have two freezers full of bison, black angus, wild boar sausage, Alaskan Salmon, venison and elk. I rarely eat eggs. I usually have oatmeal for breakfast. My wife does the grocery shopping. I have noticed parts for equipment are getting harder to get.

Thanks to elderolddog now I am curious how the welfare system of the lds church started and when it went from welfare to 100 billion dollar investment? Since the egg shortage has the lds church increased their chicken farms? How much is the yearly Relief Society budget?