Years ago, Bob went on many podcast predicting how the internet would bring the downfall of Mormonism by 2015. Looking back, those claims were obviously absurd.

Bob's a smart guy. He even wrote Jeff Holland a letter.

How did he get it so wrong?

He didn't know that church investments would make tithing revenue irrelevant. As long as they can keep a few butts in seats, they keep their tax-exempt status.

Bob got the process right and the timing wrong. That's pretty good.

Also, Mormonism is in the midst of its downfall. It surely no longer has clear doctrines that people believe; it has, as bradley notes below, ceased in many ways to be a religion.

Very interesting thread.

While it’s hard to say what Mccue believes in this moment, I read something he wrote in a private forum that addressed this question some time ago.

He expressed disappointment at how well the Mormon church continued to do, and attributed that to the unexpected way in which the evolving Internet interacted with evolving society. He also noted that he did not predict the complete demise of the Mormon church. From the beginning of his journey out of Mormonism, he had a general idea of the asset base the church had accumulated, and had written about how this asset base would ensure that the Mormon church, in some form, would be on the human cultural stage for the foreseeable future. What he predicted was a relatively quick evolution toward a less authoritarian culture within Mormonism, and therefore more diversity and individualism within Mormonism. He was wrong on that point.

His account was more or less as follows. The Internet made massive amounts of useful and accurate information available, which forced organizations, large and small, to change their behavior. That was phase one, and during that phase, large organizations such as the Mormon church, lost power as formerly disconnected dissident members of those groups found information to support their positions, and began to connect with each other on places like RFM. Lots of people left Mormonism, or moved toward its margins. Conversion rates slowed in the connected/developed world. And hence the Mormon church lost human energy and tithing revenue. So far, so good.

Then, with surprising speed, echo chambers developed on the Internet, that allowed both old and newly forming groups to reinforce in-group beliefs. Massive amounts of disinformation began to circulate in service of these in-group beliefs. It became much more difficult to discern reality from falsehood. The idea of “do your own research”, which started out as encouragement for individuals to use the power of the internet to discover reality, began far too often to lead well intended people down rabbit holes that either reinforced their traditional false beliefs, or engendered new extremist beliefs that were in many cases worse than where they started.

Traditional groups, such as the Mormon church, began to use these echo chambers to protect their boundaries. Sub groups inside of the traditional groups rapidly developed, influencing the range of belief and behavior within those groups. This in-group evolution is not entirely within the control of the group leaders, and has led to extremism and unexpected developments within many traditional groups, religious and otherwise. Unfortunately, we see evidence all over the world that this process is still gathering steam.

So, Mccue said that with the benefit of hindsight, it is not surprising with he and many others saw the emergence of the Internet as a powerful force within the complex system that is human society, were excited by its potential, and excessively hopeful with regard to the way in which it would reduce the power of religious and other groups like the Mormon church. And, he was correct with regard to the fact that the influence of the Internet would reduce the ability of Mormon leaders to control members of the Mormon church. What he missed was timing, and direction. Pretty important factors.

He said that even though the study of complex systems and how they work within social groups was one of his favorite subjects, his hope for the future caused him to badly underestimate the difficulty of predicting how a force like the Internet would play out within human culture generally, and specifically with regard to any particular institution such as the Mormon Church. He completely missed something that he said should have been obvious to him: The probable emergence of the internet echo chambers and more or less how that would play out, given what we know about how easy human beings are to manipulate if the right cognitive bias buttons are pushed.

So, the Mormon church is definitely evolving as a result of how the internet has increased connectively within human culture, and this process is playing out in a way that he completely missed.

I completely agree that the asset base LDS Inc is large enough that they can coast for a very long time even with church membership collapsing. Organizations tend not to end until the money runs out.

And it will be a long time before history has a good analysis of the impact of the internet on world culture. The development of printing in the mid-1400s upended the world, especially Europe, over the next 350 or so years - Reformation, age of exploration (Columbus and the gang), followed by the age of colonization, Enlightenment, collapse of European monarchies, Industrial Revolution and the science and engineering that went with it, the rise of nation states and republics, a whole bunch of wars, yada yada.

I expect the disruptions caused by the internet to be even more profound, and I think most of them are not even on our radar at the moment.

Bob McCue was the reason I joined RFM 20-some years ago. I actually met him and part of his family several times since then. I do remember him saying the church was going to collapse because of the internet, but I don't recall him pinning a year on that happening.

That said, the old joke about economists is that they have predicted seven of the last two recessions. Predicting the past is hard enough. Predicting the future is damn near impossible.

I agree with LW. LDS Inc is not exactly setting the world on fire these days. And selling an American religion may be getting a lot more difficult in years to come. Canadians are booing the US national anthem at sporting events now. Canadians, fergodssake, the nicest people on the planet. LDS Inc is going to have to rebrand more than just the word Mormon.

Oh, and Canadian Mormons sending tithing to SLC? I bet that practice is getting a real attitude adjustment!

I was once at a conference for corporate execs and institutional investors. In a session on macroeconomics, one of the guests gently asked why the audience should take the economists' views seriously given that sometimes their predictions are wrong.

One of the economists on the panel then said, "I take offense at the comment. My own record is perfect. I have been wrong every single time."

To much laughter, he then explained that economics is basically predicting what just happened on the basis of incomplete and frequently erroneous data. Those predictions must always be taken with a truckload full of salt.

On the other hand, he continued, economists can certainly flag major issues and trends; and that is where their work becomes more reliable--and valuable for companies and investors.

It sounds to me like McCue performed quite well.

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Oh, and Canadian Mormons sending tithing to SLC? I
> bet that practice is getting a real attitude
> adjustment!

Good point. I wonder if my fellow Canucks are thinking along those lines - the Mormon ones I mean of course - because wow, it sure enough does take a lot to get us riled as a group against another group (unless hockey is involved when all bets are off). But it's a good point. If you want to withdraw love and support for America (sorry 'bout that) then surely that would include thinking about where your Canuck bucks are going, in every sphere.

Although likely many people will make exceptions when it comes to their religious faith. Maybe ???



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/06/2025 02:43PM by Nightingale.

Started flying the Canadian Flag on our Flagpole a month ago. Just wanted you to know. I really hope the Canuck Mormons don't send their money here. I really like to think Canada is above the current mess with the Mormons-- and the Morons.

Thank you, D&D. Neighbours supporting neighbours is my preferred approach, by far.

I'm sorry about the booing as while I understand the impulse to express displeasure, of course, it ends up being directed at the wrong groups.

Too, I like sports to stay above the everyday, and especially political, fray.

I hope regular citizens can stay friendly with each other, no matter what the irregular ones get up to.

It is the same reason why we haven't started populating the moon and other planets yet (remember "2001: A Space Odyssey,"?)

Look. Nobody can tell exactly when this or that event is going to happen. My first 9 years of life were in Los Angeles, and I can still remember the ABC newsman predicting that the entire California coast was going to fall into the sea in 2006. But Los Angeles is still very much here, despite the predictions of the shelf on which it sits collapsing.

LW (see above) is very much correct. There is absolutely no way of predicting future dates of anything that haven't been already announced. Human beings are not mind readers, and there are no such things as "prophets".

That said, we can, like the economists in LW's example above, predict in general terms where everything is headed. Why? Because even though human beings are not mind readers, we are predictable creatures. We are social animals that in many ways behave like lemmings. So, unless something extraordinary happens, we can predict the general future with some minimal accuracy.

And while I never read a specific date for Mormonism's demise from Mr. McCue, his general predictions and observations about the Joseph Smith cult have been proven to be very accurate indeed!

Why would you think he would get it rignt?

Recognizing flaws of mormonism doesn't make one an expert on the lifespan of mormonism

Because BKP was right. Sometimes the truth is not very useful.


Because a good percentage of people will always throw good money after bad.


Because truth is only one player in the game.

Was he t wrong though?

“Train up a child in the way he should go: and when he is old, he will not depart from it.” ???

Indoctrination has a good track record. So many can't beat it.

The church has not evolved well. It has kept the suits and obedience and gotten rid of a lot of what made people enjoy it.

They want Mormons to dress like the show "Madmen". They should have stuck up for some of their weirder doctrines. It would give them some integrity because people respect consistency. Those doctrines look normal compared to what some celebrities believe in like Tom Cruise or Oprah Winfrey. They don't get that worshiping Nelson and closed temples looks more weird to the public than getting your own planet or the Book of Mormon.

I also thought the Internet would destroy Mormonism, but Mormonism is a shell game.

"Mormon Doctrine" was the only attempt that tried to codify Mormonism as a religion.

How many people today believe any of it?

His obituary states:

"A devoted member of The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, Bob served his church community his whole life."

I wonder who wrote that.
I have relatives who would write the same about me. LOL.

Don’t you have to die first before they write obits?

LOL. That's generally what I thought too.

I do know some people who write their own so it will be ready when the day comes. They must not trust others to make them sound wonderful enough. Snicker.