Let's examine the processes by which professional scientists rationally and reliably predict the likelihood of occurence of certain physical phenomena, vs. the ridiculous and repudiated guesses of Mormonism's bogus prophet, Joseph Smith.
The first (the scientists) employ tools of evidence, observation, testing, falsification and replication in making their predictive announcements.
The second (Joseph's Myth) simply makes things up as they go along.
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--Example: The Case of the Incoming Asteroid
Russian scientists recently announced that an asteroid the length of two football fields will collide with the Earth on April 13, 2036.
Before folks panic and rush out to buy a year's supply of food in anticipation of all the supermarkets being destroyed on impact, NASA scientists have been justifiably skeptical (as good scientists should be).
While agreeing that the empirical data indicates the eventuality of at least an earthly close encounter, NASA experts put the likelihood of the asteriod actually plowing into the Earth at being quite low.
Moreover, based upon previous encounters with another asteroid, U.S. scientists are reasonably confident that if the present asteriod of concern does, in fact, pose a threat to Earth, its trajectory can be altered so as to prevent a collision with our planet.
Let's follow the scientific process employed in examining and predicting the future of this approaching asteroid, as reported by general media sources:
"In 2004, NASA scientists announced that there was a chance that Apophis, an asteroid larger than two football fields, could smash into Earth in 2029. A few additional observations and some number-crunching later, astronomers noted that the chance of the planet-killer hitting Earth in 2029 was nearly zilch.
"Now, reports out of Russia say that scientists there estimate Apophis will collide with Earth on April 13, 2036. These reports conflict on the probability of such a doomsday event, but the question remains: How scared should we be?
"'Technically, they’re correct, there is a chance in 2036 [that Apophis will hit Earth],' said Donald Yeomans, head of NASA’s Near-Earth Object Program Office. However, that chance is just 1-in-250,000, Yeomans said.
"The Russian scientists are basing their predictions of a collision on the chance that the 900-foot-long (270 meters) Apophis will travel through what’s called a gravitational
keyhole as it passes by Earth in 2029. The gravitational keyhole they mention is a precise region in space, only slightly larger than the asteroid itself, in which the effect of Earth's gravity is such that it could tweak Apophis' path.
“'The situation is that in 2029, April 13, [Apophis] flies very close to the Earth, within five Earth radii, so that will be quite an event, but we’ve already ruled out the possibility of it hitting at that time,” Yeomans [said]. 'On the other hand, if it goes through what we call a keyhole during that close Earth approach . . . then it will indeed be perturbed just right so that it will come back and smack Earth on April 13, 2036,' Yeomans said.
"The chances of the asteroid going through the keyhole, which is tiny compared to the asteroid, are 'minuscule,' Yeomans added.
"The more likely scenario is this: Apophis will make a fairly close approach to Earth in late 2012 and early 2013, and will be extensively observed with ground-based optical telescopes and radar systems. If it seems to be heading on a destructive path, NASA will devise the scheme and machinery necessary to change the asteroid’s orbit, decreasing the probability of a collision in 2036 to zero, Yeomans said.
"There are several ways to change an asteroid’s orbit, the simplest of which is to run a spacecraft into the hurtling rock. This technology was used on July 4, 2005, when Deep Impact smashed into the comet Tempel 1."
(for a deep-space photograph of the Apophis asteriod, along with the text of above article, see: "Russians: 2036 Killer Asteroid Collision: NASA Unimpressed," by Michelle Bryner, originally appearing on Space.com, and subsequently reported by "CBS News," 4 February 2011, at:
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-501465_162-20030674-501465.html)
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A more detailed scientifc analysis of the expected approach of Apophis (based on data/modeling dealing with, among other things, trajectory, positioning and radar imaging) is provided by NASA's "Near-Earth Object Program" in a report titled, "Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036":
"SUMMARY
"Researchers at NASA/JPL, Caltech, and Arecibo Observatory have released the results of radar observations of the potentially hazardous asteroid 99942 Apophis, along with an in-depth analysis of its motion. The research will affect how and when scientists measure, predict, or consider modifying the asteroid's motion. The paper has been accepted for publication in the science journal 'Icarus' and was presented at the AAS/DPS conference in Orlando, Florida in October of 2007. The Apophis study was led by Jon Giorgini, a senior analyst in JPL's Solar System Dynamics group and member of the radar team that observed Apophis.
"The analysis of Apophis previews situations likely to be encountered with NEAs yet to be discovered: a close approach that is not dangerous (like Apophis in 2029) nonetheless close enough to obscure the proximity and the danger of a later approach (like Apophis in 2036) by amplifying trajectory prediction uncertainties caused by difficult-to-observe physical characteristics interacting with solar radiation as well as other factors.
"BACKGROUND
"Upon its discovery in 2004, Apophis was briefly estimated to have a 2.7% chance of impacting the Earth in 2029. Additional measurements later showed there was no impact risk at that time from the 210-330 meter (690-1080 foot) diameter object, identified spectroscopically as an Sq type similar to LL chondritic meteorites. However, there will be a historically close approach to the Earth, estimated to be a 1 in 800 year event (on average, for an object of that size).
"The Arecibo planetary radar telescope subsequently detected the asteroid at distances of 27-40 million km (17-25 million miles; 0.192-0.268 AU) in 2005 and 2006. Polarization ratios indicate Apophis appears to be smoother than most NEAs at 13-cm scales. Including the high precision radar measurements
in a new orbit solution reduced the uncertainty in Apophis' predicted location in 2029 by 98%.
"While trajectory knowledge was substantially corrected by the Arecibo data, a small estimated chance of impact (less than 1 in 45,000 using standard dynamical models) remained for April 13, 2036. With Apophis probably too close to the Sun to be measured by optical telescopes until 2011, and too distant for useful radar measurement until 2013, the underlying physics of Apophis' motion were considered to better understand the hazard.
"RESULTS OF THE STUDY
"(1) Extending the 'Standard Dynamical Model'
"Trajectory predictions for asteroids are normally based on a standard model of the solar system that includes the gravity of the Sun, Moon, other planets, and the three largest asteroids.
"However, additional factors can influence the predicted motion in ways that depend on rarely known details, such as the spin of the asteroid, its mass, the way it reflects and absorbs sun-light, radiates heat, and the gravitational pull of other asteroids passing nearby. These were examined, along with the effect of Earth's non-uniform gravity field during encounters, and limitations of the computer hardware performing the calculations.
"One would normally look for the influence of such factors as they gradually alter the trajectory over years. But, for Apophis, the changes remain small until amplified by passage through Earth's gravity field during the historically close approach in 2029.
"For example, the team found solar energy can cause between 20 and 740 km (12 and 460 miles) of position change over the next 22 years leading into the 2029 Earth encounter. But, only 7 years later, the effect on Apophis' predicted position can grow to between 520,000 and 30 million km (323,000 and 18.6 million miles; 0.0035-0.2 AU). This range makes it difficult to predict if Apophis will even have a close encounter with Earth in 2036 when the orbital paths intersect.
"It was found that small uncertainties in the masses and positions of the planets and Sun can cause up to 23 Earth radii of prediction error for Apophis by 2036.
"The standard model of the Earth as a point mass can introduce up to 2.9 Earth radii of prediction error by 2036; at least the Earth's oblateness must be considered to predict an impact.
"The gravity of other asteroids can cause up to 2.3 Earth radii of prediction uncertainty for Apophis.
"By considering the range of Apophis' physical characteristics and these error sources, it was determined what observations prior to 2029 will most effectively reduce prediction uncertainties. Observing criteria were developed that, if satisfied, could permit eliminating the 2036 impact possibility without further physical characterization of Apophis.
"Such observations could reduce the need for a visit by an expensive spacecraft and reduce the risk of Apophis being prematurely eliminated as a hazard under the standard model, only to drift back into the hazard classification system years later as the smaller, unmodeled forces act upon it.
"(2) Mitigation
"Mitigation was not specifically studied, but the team found small variations in the energy absorption and reflection properties of Apophis' surface are sufficient to cause enough trajectory change to obscure the difference between an impact and a miss in 2036. Changing the amount of energy Apophis absorbs by half a percent as late as 2018 - for example by covering a 40 x 40 meter (130 x 130 foot) patch with lightweight reflective materials (an 8 kg payload) - can change its position in 2036 by a minimum of one Earth radius.
"A change somewhat greater than this minimum would be required to allow for prediction uncertainties. For Apophis, scaling up to distribute 250 kg (550 pounds) of a reflective or absorptive material (similar to the carbon fiber mesh being considered for solar sails) across the surface could use the existing radiation forces to produce a 6-sigma trajectory change, moving at least '99.9999998' percent of the statistically possible trajectories away from the Earth in just 18 years.
"While no deflection is expected to be necessary, the team's research demonstrates that any deflection method must produce a change known in advance to be greater than all the error sources in the prediction, including some greater than those considered with the standard model.
"(3) Impact Probability
"The study did NOT compute new impact probabilities. This is because important physical parameters (such as mass and spin pole) that affect its trajectory have not yet been measured and hence there are no associated probability distributions. The study characterizes how the Standard Dynamical Model can over or under-estimate impact probability for those objects having close planetary encounters prior to the potential impact.
"The situation is similar to having 6 apples (the measured Apophis parameters) and 6 boxes whose contents are unknown (the unmeasured Apophis parameters), then trying to compute the probability one has a total of 12 apples (impact probability). The result reflects back what is assumed about the unknown contents of the boxes, but doesn't reveal new information. The contents of the boxes must be observed (measured) to learn something new.
"For similar reasons, the Apophis study instead uses the minimum and maximum range-of-effect in place of computing impact probabilities to provide reasonable criteria for excluding impact in the absence of detailed physical knowledge, once new position measurements are obtained at six key times. . . .
"The Apophis situation has predictability problems essentially the same as previously described in 'Science' for 29075 (1950 DA), but occurring more severely: in as little as 2-3 decades, rather than the 880 year prediction of that case. . . .
"FUTURE
"The future for Apophis on Friday, April 13 of 2029 includes an approach to Earth no closer than 29,470 km (18,300 miles, or 5.6 Earth radii from the center, or 4.6 Earth-radii from the surface) over the mid-Atlantic, appearing to the naked eye as a moderately bright point of light moving rapidly across the sky. Depending on its mechanical nature, it could experience shape or spin-state alteration due to tidal forces caused by Earth's
gravity field.
"This is within the distance of Earth's geosynchronous satellites. However, because Apophis will pass interior to the positions of these satellites at closest approach, in a
plane inclined at 40 degrees to the Earth's equator and passing outside the equatorial geosynchronous zone when crossing the equatorial plane, it does not threaten the satellites in that heavily populated region.
"Using criteria developed in this research, new measurements possible in 2013 (if not 2011) will likely confirm that in 2036 Apophis will quietly pass more than 49 million km (30.5 million miles; 0.32 AU) from Earth on Easter Sunday of that year (April 13)."
("Predicting Apophis' Earth Encounters in 2029 and 2036," in "Near-Earth Object Program," National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), at:
http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/apophis/)
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Compare and contrast the research approach of real scientists to the "revelation" approach of Mormonism's fake prophet:
--Example/Strike One: Joseph Smith Predicts, in the Name of God, That the Second Coming of Astral Visitor Jesus Would Occur in 1891, But Then Jesus Proves to Be a No-Show
"Joseph Smith was [so] interested in the second coming of Jesus Christ . . . that he tried to peg Christ’s return to a particular year – 1891. Smith said, 'It is the will of the Lord that those who went to Zion, with a determination to lay down their lives, if necessary, should be ordained to the ministry, and go forth to prune the vineyard for the last time,
or the coming of the Lord, which was nigh – even fifty-six years, should wind up the scene.' ("The History of the Church," vol II, p. 182).
"Zion here refers to Jackson County, Missouri – not to Israel. Given the context in which this was said, the fifty-six year time frame would place the return of Jesus on or before February 14, 1891.
"Many Mormon periodicals demonstrated that zealous Mormons were anxiously awaiting the fulfillment of that prophecy. February 14, 1891 came and went with no second coming. It was truly a disappointing Valentine’s Day for many faithful Mormons."
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--Example/Strike Two: Joseph Smith, in the Name of God, Predicts the Sale of the Book of Mormon Copyright, But Then Fails to Sell It
"The following prophecy [of Joseph Smith] . . . [was] recounted by . . . David Whitmer, one of the three 'witnesses' to Smith’s translation of the Book of Mormon [who eventually left the Mormon Church]. . . . [S]ince the LDS Church lends Whitmer the credibility of having him still listed as an original witness (check the beginning of any Book of Mormon),
[he is afforded] some level of credibility here . . . .
"As the story goes, during the printing of the Book of Mormon, Smith was running out of the money needed to finish it. Hyrum Smith(Joseph’s brother) suggested they could go to Toronto, Canada, and sell the copyright to theBook of Mormon for money.
"Whitmer picks up the account:
"'Joseph looked into the hat in which he placed the stone, and received a revelation that some of the brethren should go to Toronto, Canada, and that they would sell the copyright of the Book of Mormon.
"'Hiram Page and Oliver Cowdery went to Toronto on this mission, but they failed entirely to sell the copyright, returning without any money. Joseph was at my father's house when they returned. I was there also, and am an eye witness to these facts. Jacob Whitmer and John Whitmer were also present when Hiram Page and Oliver Cowdery returned from Canada.
"'Well, we were all in great trouble; and we asked Joseph how it was that he had received a revelation from the Lord for some brethren to go to Toronto and sell the copyright, and the brethren had utterly failed in their undertaking.
"'Joseph did not know how it was, so he enquired of the Lord about it, and behold the following revelation came through the stone: "Some revelations are of God: some revelations are of men: and some revelations are of the devil." So we see that the revelation to go to Toronto and sell the copyright was not of God, but was of the devil or of the heart of man.' (David Whitmer, "An Address to All Believers in Christ, 1887).
"The stone to which Whitmer refers is the 'seer stone' by which Smith arrived at many of his revelations, and which he used to help him “translate” the Book of Mormon. Here, Joseph Smith himself admitted that he was susceptible to receiving revelations from men or from the devil, and passing it on as prophecy."
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--Example/Strike Three: Joseph Smith Predicts, in the Name of God, That He Will Triumph Over All His Enemies, But Then Is Assassinated
"On September 1, 1842, Joseph Smith said, ' . . . [F]or to this day has the God of my fathers delivered me out of them all, and will deliver me from henceforth; for behold, and
lo, I shall triumph over all my enemies, for the Lord God hath spoken it.” ('Doctrine and Covenants,' 127:2)
"The last phrase “for the Lord God hath spoken it,” indicates that this is prophecy. Here, Smith has prophesied that God would allow him to “triumph” over all his enemies. Less than two years later, these same enemies stormed the Carthage, Illinois jail where Smith was imprisoned and shot him dead. Smith tried to fight back, shooting 3 of his assailants and killing 2 with a pistol smuggled in to him, but his 'enemies' triumphed. This is a false prophecy . . . . [thus proving] . . . Smith to be a false prophet."
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Earth to God's "Prophet": One, two, three strikes, yer out.
("The False Prophecies of Joseph Smith Jr.," by "Contender Ministries," at:
http://contenderministries.org/mormonism/falseprophet.php ; for an expanded list of Smith's many bogus predictions/prophecies, complete with appropriate citations and references, see "A Sample of Joseph Smith's False Prophecies," at:
http://www.utlm.org/onlineresources/falseprophecies.htm)
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--Conclusion on the Mormon Illusion
Modern predictive science has a remarkably reliable record when it comes to getting at asteriods.
Primitive prophetic Joseph has a remarkably reliable record when it comes to getting at it a**-backwards.
Edited 37 time(s). Last edit at 02/10/2011 02:36PM by steve benson.