is that they will become more and more desperate when they realize they're losing more and more converts (read $$$) and will try to distance themselves from all the weirdness and try to become mainstream Christian.

But...since most perceive them as being not Xtian at all and a cult, the internet will haunt them, and they will go out NOT with a bang, but a whimper.

And someday Zion National Park will rename the Kolob section (burns my ass every time I see the name).

That's definitely a viable prediction. My sense is though that they'll grow and spread. See Richard Packham's exit story (I'm thinking of the version posted at postmormon.org) and how he fears the church's growing political power. It's a reactionary force, no doubt, but there are a lot of people who crave hyper-normalcy and the promise of stability. They also don't mind someone telling them what to do. And not enough of those people will do the research necessary to question the church and be warned off of its rosy promises and earnest, thoroughly indoctrinated sales staff.

The Internet has helped a lot, but look at how difficult it is for us to get family members out of the church or to just get family members to accept us when we question what the church is about. Many TBM family members don't even want to discuss our issues. That isolation and control, and use of fear and anxiety, by the church is phenomenally slick and extensive.

The Internet is viral but so is the church. I'd love to see some hard numbers and documentation to believe the church is going to dwindle.

Good points, but the required tithing is going to turn a lot of potential recruits off in these hard economic times.

I definitely buy the idea that the church will move toward mainstream xtianty more and more in an effort to not be too weird. The history has been, see Armand Mauss on this, that the church has sought to normalize but at the same time to maintain a certain brand "peculiarity"--they recognize that they can't go to the right (like the underground FLDS) but they also know that they can't go too far to the left (or what for us would simply be mainstream protestant Christianity, as with the Church of Christ or RLDS). Too far left and they'll lose numbers.

So, for example, they'll move to mainstream but keep the temples, e.g., eventually they'll let non-members in for weddings, say.

Your argument is that they are losing more and more converts (and that hits them in the wallet, which is what the church really cares about). I know that convert retention in South America is abysmal. In the states, what is it, 40% retention? I'm just guessing here. And what is the retention of BICs? That's pretty high I assume. How do we get access to these numbers? Activity rates in the wards are only 40% to 50% of the names on the rolls. That's been the consistent anecdotal evidence.

There have been threads on RFM before crunching the numbers released at Gen. Conf. for example, and there are people here who are good at making sense of the stats. I'll do a little searching when I get in from working in my garden. Funny thing: I have more time now to actually have a nice garden than when I was running around doing all the PHood busy work.i

Thanks cecelia. So declining growth rates is the story. I'd rather see negative growth, but their growth over the same period is behind that of some other religious groups and just a little, maybe a percentage point, aheaed of the population growth of the US. Not comforting to see US conversion rates jumping 32,000 from 2004 to 2006.

Religion in general is losing ground in Western societies. But that seems long term to me. I want my family out now! Of course. That the church's growth is slowing doesn't fill me with confidence that it will implode, die in a wimper, or a bang anytime soon--or in my lifetime, which hopefully will be another forty years or so.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_population_growth_rate

Remember how East Germany just imploded? Once people found out they could slip into Hungary and then over to West Germany without being shot, they voted en masse with their feet.

A single event, such as Hungary opening its border with WG, could happen in marmentdom.

Once two families leave the block and reinvent their own community, another family on the block will cross over, then a critical mass is acheived.

Sure people stayed in East Germany even after the border was opened, but East Germany imploded basically over night.

I would call the destruction of the Berlin Wall out with a bang.

I think all it will take is some event that forces the church to open it's books.

I think when people see where their hard earned money goes, I think many will leave.

I have a friend who, along with her DH and 3 sons, lives in the DH's parents' basement (they are in their early 30s) in some po dunk town on the AZ/UT border. I've lived in AZ my whole life and have never heard of it.

Anyway, they struggle on faithfully thinking that what they sacrifice to give to the church is going to help people. I think it would really shake them up to know the church is mainly a real estate investment corporation that you will never benefit from but your leaders live in their multi-million dollar estates and never have to worry about their financial situation like you do.

Ugh. Burns me right up.

I think if people really knew how their money was being spent they would be furious. Most TBM's I know are happy to sacrifice time and tithing, thinking it's all going to good causes around the world and building temples and chapels for the world's fastest growing church. And why wouldn't they? It's a constant stream of positive PR that's coming from "trusted" LDS publications like the Ensign, Church News etc. My mom is always talking about how many good things Mormonism does for humanity - from charity work to church employment to visiting/home teaching to Mormon Helping Hands. Because she only reads the Mormon side of things.

People put up with the non-disclosure of church finances because they trust their leaders. They shouldn't - but they need to be shown that.

"I think if people really knew how their money was being spent they would be furious"..."People put up with the non-disclosure of church finances because they trust their leaders. They shouldn't - but they need to be shown that."

For these reasons, I am hoping the mall will open some TBM eyes. But something tells me that when the profit says crap like "No tithing was used to build the mall", members will just trust him, instead of asking the question, Well, OK, where did the money come from then?

When I ask tbm dh where the money is coming to build the 3+billion $ mall he just says it's from all the church's investments. That of course the church would never use tithing to build a mall.

Totally, totally agree. Since I got my first job at 15 I was skeptical about where my money was going, but continued to pay. When Prop 8 came out and I heard how much money was put towards it I went to my bishop and told him I was not going to pay my tithing again until I knew exactly where my money was going - I never did get a straight answer. And I never did pay my tithing again.

...to our representatives in Congress. Demand that the books be opened for all charitable organizations, including churches, that receive more than x dollars per year in tax-deductable donations. Budgets should be published on the web for all to peruse, and audited if there is a certain dollar amount involved.

I think that this is the minimum that citizens can expect for exempting organizations from tax.

I think you are absolutely right and if I had a clue how to do that effectively, I would. I think it's more than just a Mormon issue - it's a taxpayer issue. The only problem is that other churches already do that so it wouldn't bother congregation members of other faiths. But I think non-church goers, a large percentage of Americans, would be the most interested in seeing tax-exempt organizations are worthy of the designation.

...who is a lawyer or accountant could draft a sample letter for us. I'm not sure about what the minimum amount should be where the books should be open and/or auditing expected. I wouldn't want to punish or overburden small, local charitable organizations.

I'm guessing the church will move to a "plate collection" scheme in order to keep people in the pews. It will be a revelation for sure.

I think it would help keep people in church because it takes away the pressure to pay 10%. You give whatever you have in your pocket, and that's that. However, I doubt the church would ever switch to that method. They would lose too much $$$ and wouldn't be able to grant/deny people the certain 'blessings' that come by giving up a specific portion of income.

I take my DW to sacrement meeting every Sunday. Almost every time there are new ward member's names read. Over the last three years I do not remember a cumulative dozen who have stood when the names were read.
Is this shyness or are they just not attending?

If they are TBMs, they'll not only be there in their new ward, but are likely to stand up so that their new ward members will welcome them in and help them feel at home.

But when silence follows the reading of "new ward members'" names... then most likely, the church records were forwarded in the absence of any such request on the part of the inactive members who moved to that area.

Most people do not view the Mormon church as a cult. In fact, few people do.

Also, only other believing Christians believe that Mormons aren't Christians. These people are irrelevant because they believe in virgin birth, so you shouldn't listen to them.

The vast majority of the world, however, view Mormonism as Christianity because it fits in the world view of Christianity.

You are right though, the Mormon church tends to mainstream. They do this to adapt, because for them it is better to have converts than it is to stand up to whatever ridiculous stance they have.

Mormonism won't die out. They survived polygamy, they survived overt racism on their part, and they'll survive gay marriage. They'll continue just like every other religion and there is absolutely zero evidence to prove otherwise.

With their weird temple rituals they will never get mainstream status. They will still always try to keep to themselves and that alone will make them unable to mainstream.They will still have silly rules, shameful interviews,people bossing them around and all these oddities will keep them from ever being mainstream.

You don't think that some of those things will be gone in the next 100 years?

Think of all of the things that have been discarded in the last 100 years. Certainly, it is plausible.

and think its a very valid possibility that, like a cockroach, Mormonism can survive anything. Maybe by mainstreaming and burying a lot of what is considered traditional today or maybe something cataclysmic will happen that makes a lot of members jump ship and the church just becomes a small, sideline religion. I can see it going either way but if it mainstreams, it will be in the same boat as many traditional religions today that are losing members. Only the more fanatical types like the JW's or the Pentacostals are growing. Also, Mormonism really pisses people off in ways other religions usually don't. I'm not talking a like/dislike thing. I'm talking about the sort of outrage that meets Mormon arrogance and bad manners. The kind of long time injury that is dealt to a parent who misses a child's wedding or a questioning child who is treated like dirt by a believing parent. Or, well a hundred other things that make people who aren't TBM for whatever reason (non-member, exmo, inactive) really want to see the church get what's coming to it.

I think one way or another, it's going down. The only way to save it is to not only change the doctrine and practices but also the hearts and minds of the members so they aren't so GD offensive. And good luck with that.

Certainly Mormons are less offensive now than they were even 30 years ago. Even the members are in on the idea that they need to mainstream, and they seem to be pacifying themselves on purpose.

Of course, they do tend to piss people off still :)

I guess only time will tell, but I believe it follows a model more akin to the cockroach.

As a nevermo who did not grow up in UT, I can tell you that Mormons ARE viewed as a CULT by most people I knew growing up, and still know, along with Jehovah's Witnesses, Moonies, Hari Krishna's, and Scientologists.

+1
I agree, and not because of my feelings but because of personal experience.

I just left a get together this evening where all kinds of things were discussed including mormonism. All educated people and all called it a cult and knew the reasons why it is a cult. I never believed that mormons were tolerated instead of accepted, but the longer I'm out and interact with people the more clear and "true" becomes the fact that they are "tolerated" more than accepted.

Nobody in most places have to tolerate Mormons. Most people don't even think of them.

To assume that anybody actually gives a shit, you have to give Mormonism a lot more power than it actually has. The reality is, nobody actually cares, therefore, they don't care if they are a cult or not.

I'm certainly not the one giving Mormonism more undue power than it actually deserves.

I disagree. I think because Mormonism has recently been very publically taking political sides, it is becoming more and more well-known, though not in the way the leaders would like. TSCC is certainly gaining public recognition, but mostly in a negative light. People are easily angered by Mormonism, partially because of misunderstandings of the beliefs, but mostly due to TSCC's very outward condemnation of current issues such as homosexuality and abortion. Along with the blatant ignorance as they continue to dismiss any new scientific evidence that goes against their 'teachings'.

Just today in church (because I still live at home, I still attend) a VERY educated man whom I happen to greatly admire stood at the pulpit and said (and I quote): "Some scientific findinds these days clash with what my religious beliefs teach me. How do I resolve these issues? I believe my religious education, and that's that." There is pure ignorance being spewed by church members, and church members are very vocal about it, and I truly believe that the general public is getting tired of hearing the BS.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/20/2011 02:58PM by givemethismoment.

I find that anybody who uses the term "Mormon Troll" in a real discussion is rarely worth talking to.

I'm not going to address the troll thing, other than to say that you are a moron.

I had predicted that LDS, Inc. would go into a long and steady decline as members fell into inactivity more easily and as converts dried up due to the Internet. I had thought that their large wealth and the strong ties many Mormons had would sustain them for a long time.

While the first part is obviously true, the church seems to have screwed up its investments badly. It's hard to say exactly where they are, since they kept they books hidden, but it's obvious that they over invested in real estate and took it in the shorts in 2008. The White Elephant Mall in SLC is losing money badly, and they will probably lose $3 billion in that venture alone. They are also heavily invested in Florida, Nevada, Arizona, California and, of course, Utah real estate, states that have all lost significantly in property values over the past 3 years.

The cost cutting measure they are imposing are going to accelerate their decline. They are canceling programs that keep members engaged. Their "every member a janitor" program is a huge turn-off. If I were a professional giving $10k or more to the church annually and was asked to scrub toilets on top of that, I'd be insulted and wondering what they were doing with my money. My single contribution alone should be enough to pay for once-a-week cleaning. Putting more burdens on already overburdened members will only drive them away, reducing their labor pool and revenue stream further.

There are only 2 things that matter to businesses: product quality and customer service. If a company is cutting back on either one, it usually means that bankruptcy is just down the road. LDS Theology is already a mess, so ruining the members' weekly experience is just going to end any reason to keep going to church there.

We just saw several threads on this board about the Mormon caste system. Is the "every member a janitor" the policy in theory but not practice; full tithe paying HP's and their families possibly being "forgotten" when the custodial schedule is being drafted?

Scarecrow: I have to disagree. I am not a troll, but a lifelong fascinated nevermo. I've been aware of the Mormons for decades and I can assure you that where I live (well outside the Morridor) in the 70's the word "Mormon" was rarely uttered without "weirdo" also being said in the same sentence. Now it's completely different. There are a fair number of Mormons residing in my community and I NEVER hear a judgemental word said about them. I think the PR campaign of the past decades has been very successful.

One point this thread has had me wondering is why is the Church accumulating all this wealth, anyway? What is the point? Noone's benefitting from what I can see. It would be different if the 1st Presidency or the GA's were getting filthy rich off all this but from what I've gathered, TM is only pulling in about 1/2M per year--or something. And in relative terms to what CEO's are making in the private sector, that's chump change. So what is the point in "investing" to make even more money, anyway?

TM MAKING $500,000 A YEAR TO SIT ON YOUR ASS AND NOT PROVE YOUR WORTH!HELL YEAH, THE 3 WORTHLES PIECES OF CRAP IN SL ARE LAUGHING THEIR ASSES OFF WITH ALL THE PERKS OF ANY ROCK STAR!

More like showtune star.

The mo church will be around for a very long time, they control one state and are influenctial in at least one other. So I think you have to break it down to the corridor and the mission field. IMO, there will be a reformation type movement, espcially if packer is in charge. It is better to totally control a few then marginally control more. Out in the mission field, the church will continue to dwindle, most people never give the mo church a second thought. The internet will continue to make it tough to get new converts and there will be the normal loses.

I don't know. If they control just a few, they have significantly less tithing resources.

It would be smarter, and more historically accurate, of them to give in on a few issues and keep the money flowing.

Freemasonry survived the Morgan Affair and an actual political party called the Anti-Masonic Party that was dedicated to the eradication of Freemasonry. Freemasonry has even kept its quaint little rituals which we know are the source of the Mormon Church's rituals, though I think the Freemasons have done a far better job of maintaining the symbolism of those rituals than the Mormons have.

Even though it survives, and is even credited by many conspiracy theorists with controlling the world, there are Freemasons who have openly expressed fear that theirs is a dying 'Craft'.

Perhaps the Mormon Church isn't at that stage of worry yet, but one day it may be.