I spent some time pulling numbers from the statistical reports from April conferences and thought I'd share some things that caught my eye. The conference reports on lds.org only go back to 1996.

Total membership very consistently increases by approximately 300,000 every year. This represented a 3.7% growth rate in 1997. It represented a 2.3% growth rate in 2008 and 2009. The number of membership records per ward or branch has increased during the same time period from 408 to 486.

Calculating a yearly attrition rate by subtracting new children of record and converts from the yearly increase in total membership makes me believe there's something off in these numbers. Most years the attrition rate is at approximately .4%. There have been three high years where it was at .6%. The annual death rate in the US for the same period is between .8% and .9%. I know that death rates will vary by country but I feel fairly good about using the US numbers as a conservative estimate of death rates for worldwide communities with a mormon presence. So basically, these numbers tell us that mormons die less. Half as much in some cases. One caveat, I don't know if the total membership numbers include resignations and excommunications. If they do, then mormons die even less.

Also, one funny note on the attrition numbers. There were some irregularities prior to the year 2000. 1999 is the worst example because new children of record and new converts don't account for the total growth in membership. I wonder if 8,456 members came back from the dead?

Missionaries baptize an average of 5 converts per year. This number has remained fairly consistent.

The total number of missionaries grew from around 50,000 to around 60,000 and has since gone back down to around 50,000. The increase in total membership means that the percent of members that are missionaries has decreased from .56% to .37%.

And finally, there was quite a spike in children of record during 2008 and 2009. From 1997 to 2007 the number waivered between 75,000 and 99,000. For 2008 and 2009 it jumped to 120,000. Did mormons start having more children again?

I'm guessing 180-200k are resigning every year...

According to their numbers, this is what they lost. The formula I used is total membership minus the previous year's total membership, minus new converts and new children of record.

2009 - 83,483
2008 - 74,585
2007 - 47,523
2006 - 59,114
2005 - 51,211
2004 - 49,541
2003 - 78,674
2002 - 37,244
2001 - 36,473
2000 - 39,548
1999 - (8,456)

It's hard to imagine these numbers including resignations and excommunications. It's hard to imagine they even represent all deaths.

Growth rate for the number of wards and branches.

2009 - 1.11%
2008 - 1.00%
2007 - 1.26%
2006 - 1.41%
2005 - 1.54%
2004 - 1.62%
2003 - 0.36%
2002 - 0.23%
2001 - 0.65%
2000 - 0.47%
1999 - 0.94%
1998 - 3.45%
1997 - 4.63%

The fact that the church has no idea where 1/3 of the membership are. For these souls, the church continues counting them as a member until they're 110.
I have no doubt the church skews their numbers to be more "faith-promoting", "stone cut out of the mountain", and all that other crap, but like Enron, MCI Worldcom and others, they can only fudge the numbers for so long. In the next 40 years, when the Second Coming doesn't happen like nearly half of America thinks it will, and more and more people resign or hit the ripe old age of 110, the numbers will have to reflect that. When it does, it won't be good for Mormondum or any other Christian religion.

I think on this board we make too big a deal out of resignations. They hurt the cult little to none.

The figure that does matter is one that we have no possible way of seeing, and that is the number of newly inactive members. The moment a person decides to withdraw his financial, emotional and intellectual support from the cult is the moment that really matters. I remember very clearly a Sunday in 2006 as I was walking down the back steps of the chapel to my car and I turned to my wife and said "I'm done, I'm never stepping foot in this building again". She breathed a sigh of relief and said "finally, its about time!" That was the moment that 'hurt' the TSCC's stats.

I would guess that the number of newly inactive members is far greater than the 100-200k that people routinely estimate as the number of resignations. I think when we guess at how many people resign each year we grossly understate the cult's problem when in reality the number of people who withdraw their support of the cult is far greater.

In one of the largest wards on the Navajo Res there are 80-90 active with about 4,000 on record. (My last stake calling, which I declined, was to go yea out and clean up the membership records) Those numbers are I suspect pretty typical of not just the Navajo nation but South America as well- Anywhere they have been boasting large convert numbers for years.

Members are walking out the back door at about the same speed as they convert. The ones who stay are not the quality tithe paying family member packages hoped for. Activity rates are only 1 and 2 percent for many of these areas.

I am sure the brethren have had discussions about the return for their investment dollars in third world countries. Better to focus on the white and delightsome US membership to keep pumping out those babies for growth.............. It’s all they have left going for them. Highest growth counties in the nation are in Utah and Idaho. Many of those are third and fourth generation member families. Many of those will pay up.

I don't consider myself LDS, won't pay tithing, won't clean their toilets, feel no emotion toward the Mormon church other than brief flashes of irritation, don't bother to live their standards or wear their underwear and most certainly won't spread their message. I've more or less successfully deprogrammed my kids too meaning at least one less missionary, maybe two if you count my daughter. Two fewer temple marriages and two fewer tithe payers for life. But I'm still on their records and, because of my TBM DH, show up at some of their meetings. But I'm done with them. Members like me are the real "weak link" in the church's foundation. If they are counting us, they are building their house of cards upon the sand.

When all those people they still count reach 110, they'll either just up the age to 120, or just quietly ignore it and continue to count them forever.

I remember one "ward" I was assigned to as a missionary in Chile. I think it had 560 members but only 30 that attended. On some Sundays I spoke in sacrament, taught Sunday school, and taught priesthood.

I wish I knew what activity rates really were. The branch my family goes to (Sandy, UT) has about 100 people each week in sacrament. I think they have about 350 on their rolls.

And with active I mean showing up to church.

Tithe payers are less than 5% of adults in most places apparently.

I've spoken to (former) bishopric members in five European countries.

Do you have the links for this? I've been attempting to navigate their website, but it would be nice to have actual links.

Nevermind, found it. I had to figure out "statistical report" is what I was looking for.
http://beta-newsroom.lds.org/search-results.xqy?x=0&y=0&q=statistical+report

Reported in 2010:
CHURCH MEMBERSHIP
Total Church membership - 13,824,854
New children of record during 2009 - 119,722
Converts baptized during 2009 - 280,106

Reported in 2009:
CHURCH MEMBERSHIP
Total membership - 13,508,509
New children of record - 123,502
Converts baptized - 265,593

Member difference: +316345
New children + converts: +389095
which means 72750 died or left the church.


Dividing that by the number of members, and you have ~540 members die per 100,000 people. The US death rate is 803 deaths per 100,000 people. While it may seem cooked, Mexico has a death rate of 473 per 100,000 people.


http://beta-newsroom.lds.org/article/2009-statistical-report-for-2010-april-general-conference
http://beta-newsroom.lds.org/additional-resource/statistical-report-2008
http://www.aneki.com/lowest_death.html
http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/deaths.htm

djb Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
>
> Dividing that by the number of members, and you
> have ~540 members die per 100,000 people. The US
> death rate is 803 deaths per 100,000 people.
> While it may seem cooked, Mexico has a death rate
> of 473 per 100,000 people.
>

Do you really think the Mormon death rate is that low? The Mexican membership doesn't seem large enough to bring it down that far.

I'm a little annoyed that they count people as members when they can't even verify if they are alive or not. Some members!

It's also seems likely that they are note removing exmos from their counts.

The ARIS/CUNY survey found Mormons to be 1.4% of the US population in 1980, and 1.4% in 2008. They estimated 3.2 million US Mormons in 2008.

They are barely keeping their market share even with their high birth rate and targeting of Hispanic immigrants.

http://www.usatoday.com/news/religion/2009-03-09-american-religion-ARIS_N.htm

In Brazil, the 2000 census found under 200,000 members when the church was claiming over 740,000 members.

In Mexico when they claimed 850,000, a census found 206,000. I don't know what year that was.

More census numbers for Utah from 2008:
http://www.deseretnews.com/article/705331564/Utah-still-unique-but-becoming-more-like-nation.html?pg=1



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/14/2010 04:58PM by Heresy.

ex missionary Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> Most years the attrition rate is at approximately
> .4%. There have been three high years where it was
> at .6%. The annual death rate in the US for the
> same period is between .8% and .9%. I know that
> death rates will vary by country but I feel fairly
> good about using the US numbers as a conservative
> estimate of death rates for worldwide communities
> with a mormon presence. So basically, these
> numbers tell us that mormons die less. Half as
> much in some cases. One caveat, I don't know if
> the total membership numbers include resignations
> and excommunications. If they do, then mormons die
> even less.
>

My personal belief is that the numbers are so screwy that it isn't worth the time trying to make sense out of nonsense.

Case in point: In 2006 I was at a Family History Center (kind of forced to) and looked up my maternal grandfather. His spouse was listed as <still living> (they don't list the names of people still living).

My eyes popped out of the sockets -- my grandmother died in 1990. She was an active member of the church and the bishop presided at the funeral. But, somehow the church records still have her as living 16 years later? WTF.

So, the church that brags about being a "record keeping Church" keeps a lot of records, but they don't do a very good job of it. I guess they are into quantity over quality.

Thanks mcarp. I was thinking about how bad it was that they don't count inactive members as alive when they are really dead because it is a sign that they don't really know their flock. Getting it wrong for your active grandmother is even worse.