Posted by:
dagny
(
)
Date: August 21, 2011 06:06PM
Every so often we get threads about global warming.
I’d like to make everyone happy and try to show why both sides are right. There was a geologist here who tipped me off about a book by Richard Alley called The Two Mile Time Machine about an ice core study. (I’m frustrated that I can’t remember that poster’s name at the moment. Maybe he will drop in.)
That book led me to do further investigation and I’ve decided that both sides are only seeing part of the complicated issue of climate change.
The global warming deniers are right about the big picture. The earth has had extremes before and over time will again long after we are gone. It seems naïve to think that humans control anything. Ice ages have come and gone. Earth was once molten hot. And these happened without humans burning oil.
I don’t think anyone would argue with how insignificant humans have been in Earth’s geological history. The item that the global warming supporters are really talking about is not exactly the same idea as what the deniers are pointing out. The issue is really about ABRUPT climate change.
From what I can figure out (backed by evidence from the ice core), when there have been abrupt changes, there was a straw that broke the camel’s back (so to speak) and measurements that showed what seemed to trigger a big change. This is where we humans come in. We are insignificant in the big picture, but we can be the straw that broke the camel’s back. We can trigger something abrupt. Let me explain.
We have been in a sweet spot when it comes to climate for tens of thousands of years. The factors that balance and maintain that sweet spot have been relatively consistent. But humans can tip the scale just enough to pop us out of the sweet spot. That appears to be what is happening. The book explains exactly what small things humans do and how they can have a huge impact when it comes to abrupt climate changes.
Sure, the sun and things far bigger than humans have a bigger impact, but humans potentially could speed things up and ruin the lucky current circumstances we have enjoyed. We are in a fragile lucky loop as we can see from the core sample. Breaking the loop will likely kick us out of the climate garden of Eden.
So, it is not like in the big picture anyone expects the climate to stay in nice cycles that have been so suitable for human prosperity. But in the small picture, we could tip the scales. The global warming advocates are really talking about ways to prolong and maintain the fortunate loop we are in. I think there is a lot of misunderstanding about what the issues really are. Maybe I am misunderstanding as well.
If anyone is interested in the evidence the ice core presents, check out Alley’s book. You can know why we happen to be in a sweet spot and what exactly the human activity can do.
Also, here is a video of Dr. Alley being interviewed. He doesn’t really go into the topic in depth, but you can get maybe get an idea of what I’m trying to explain. I'm still gathering information on this topic.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T4GThA35s1s