Based on the number of new units (wards plus branches), growth of the church worldwide is projected to be about 1.43% for the current year. Worldwide growth last year was 1.26%.

Growth in the U.S., again based on units, should be about 1.00% this year. By comparison, unit growth for the U.S. last year was 1.1%.



-- Raw unit growth figures as of October come from http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com

For a sense of scale, the US population growth rate is 0.7% per year, and the Utah population growth rate is 1.4%, which includes births and in-migration. World population growth rate is 1.1%

So, the growth rate of the number of LDS congregations is roughly equal to the natural growth rate of the LDS population (births minus deaths). (I'm guessing LDS natural growth rate of somewhere around 1.4%) That means that the growth through baptisms minus the number who go inactive or resign is "net zero". They are losing as many as they baptize.

It will be really interesting to see what the 2016 growth rate for congregations is, after the spate of resignations happening now.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2015 08:55AM by Brother Of Jerry.

And only 25% of the new growth attends every week. (because they are babies and do not have a choice). Are infants blessed in the church part of the church's growth rate?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2015 09:30AM by antilehinephi.

That doesn't explain the closing of stakes and wards around the country or the globe.

I call bull to the stats. Someone is fudging the numbers, trying to make it look like it's growing when it's actually in decline, and increasingly so.

You don't get to just call bull on the numbers. Get a list of new wards and stakes created. Get a list of wards and stakes shut down. Do the math and see if the net increase is 1.43%. Wards and stakes are public entities. They are too big to hide. Lots of people know when a ward is created or closed.

LDS Inc's total membership numbers are a complete fantasy. The number of wards and stakes, however, are real. They have actual published names and addresses. Their existence or lack of existence can be verified.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2015 10:44AM by Brother Of Jerry.

From all accounts besides some statistician's spinning numbers, the church seems to be in decline as the members in the United States and Europe are leaving it in droves.

If the increase is merely from developing nations, I just don't see how these numbers are significant only that they are deceptive.

To me, the real growth is in its decline, as the members continue to resign from the rolls. And the younger generations coming up don't really give a rat's arse to belong in the first place.

I don't trust the numbers reports, that's all. Someone in a spin room, like the Public Relations office or the Mass Media of the church corporation could be spinning these numbers to make them look like something they're not.

And from reading on this board, there are reports of stake and wards closing in parts of the US and Europe, and the UK.

So, where's the expansion, in light of the closings? It doesn't go both ways.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2015 11:15AM by amyjo.

Excuse me, but yes it does go both ways. Stakes are disbanded, stakes are created. If more stakes are created than are disbanded, there is growth in the number of stakes. It is not rocket science, and it is not hard to verify.

Admittedly, the number of wards and stakes is a pretty crude measure of growth, but it is an actual real statistic that can be verified by outside sources. It is a pretty decent measure of real growth in the church. There is a minimum number of active members required to create a stake or keep it functioning. There's wiggle room, but not a huge amount. Somebody's got to be there.

And yes, the numbers in the OP do take into account closed stakes.

The number of new stakes created world-wide thus far this year is 53, while the number of discontinued stakes is 5.

This is a stark contrast from the 1980s when Mormons nearly broke their arms patting themselves on the back over the heady growth rates of 7%. There was talk of Mormons reaching 100 million members by now and eventually rivaling Islam and the Catholic Church in global membership.

Now they seem more likely to fall below 10 million nominal members than to ever reach 20 million.

Thus "fastest growing religion" was morphed into "world-wide religion".

The Saints need their daily dose of warm, fuzzy hyperbole.

The growth in the number of units doesn't necessarily give us a good idea of the growth in active membership. There have been two new stakes and several new wards formed in my area in the last couple years, but practically no growth from convert baptisms. It's all people just moving across the valley. Wards are dying on the east side and there's lots of building on the west side. However, they've split wards too quickly and many of the wards are now too small and not growing.

There are currently, at most, ~5 million active members in ~30,000 congregations. The church claims 300k+ convert baptisms a year. If all of those members stayed active, we should see unit growth around 6%...or, at the very least, we should be a lot of tiny branches becoming wards.

Either way, it does appear that inactivity/resignation is outpacing new convert baptisms. Deaths are likely keeping pace with births to active families as well. I don't think the church is growing at all at this point. They have to be seeing HUGE declines in tithing revenue. They're losing lots of members that have consistently paid them thousands of dollars a year and are replacing them with converts that pay little or nothing.

What about the fallout of members over the morg's new gay policy mess?? That's gotta affect it somehow.

I'm going to get the impact of the number of people leaving hasn't hit the main numbers yet. It's only been a week and I'm going to bet that they've barely begun to process the resignations.

Keep in mind that resignations take up to two months to process anyway, with the built in hassle they've created for themselves.

The numeric impact from this policy won't be known for a while.

That will show up in the statistical report for 2016, which will come out in April 2017. Yeah, I know. Long wait.

According to Pew, the mormons' percentage of the US population actually declined by 0.1% from 2007 to 2014:

http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/pr_15-05-12_rls-00/

Losses, not growth. At least in the US. :)

So in other words, a drop in a bucket!

Assuming 4 million ish active members mormons make up 0.05% of the worlds population.

Truly a tiny drop in a big bucket.