Not soon enough.

Probably when the "Twelve Apostles" (Said with great sarcasm.)finally tell the truth.

And that will only happen if there are either mass suicides in the church among housewives who are loaded up on antidepressants. Or a huge revolt on behalf of the community's all over the world twords the church.

Read as the Mo church can't pass enough money to buy their place in that community.

I don't think it will "collapse" collapse. It will--and to a large extent, already has--become irrelevant. I think that, of all the things that Mormon leadership hates the most, is being seen by the world as silly and irrelevant. That has got to be galling to Monson & Co. But, working within their base, the LDS church fairly successfully makes the die-hard TBMs believe that Mormonism is respected and filling the world. There is ample evidence, however, both statistically and anecdotally, that the Mormon church is shrinking. And the fact that the church retains less than a third of its membership is proof of an unsuccessful organization. Moreover, as the LDS church continues to find more and more of its membership among the impoverished and unschooled Third World, among only the uninformed and under-educated in the developed world, even actively recruiting the unfortunate and mentally challenged, the remaining (but not necessarily steadfast) 1/4 to 1/3 of their membership represents ever fewer capable members. Capable members (remember the "Golden Family?") probably reached their peak in the late 1960s to early 1990s, and are now on the down slope. How the LDS church will fare with this decreasing "quality" of replacement church members is anyone's guess.

I was just talking yesterday with a pastor of another church, who was very aware in all details of the Mormons' recent push to alienate members even further from LGBT friends and relatives. Our conversation touched on the Mormon vision of a "World Church." We felt that the simplistic Mormon "World Church" ideal--having the Book of Mormon translated into umpteen languages and placing missionaries in every available country--means nothing if they continue to excise whole parts of the public from the body of the organization. This doesn't do as much to protect the church from unwanted influences, as much as it blocks the potential contribution of important and vibrant individuals. It also serves to make the public perceive the church as small, narrow-minded, and myopic, and unable to provide salvation of anyone's soul.

But know what? It will always be a kick-ass real estate development corporation. And maybe that's the ultimate goal.

It'll become a neutron star.

As a church, it won't totally collapse, but will shrink considerably. Wards cannot function without a certain number of people to staff the jobs. And people are only willing to travel so far on any given Sunday to do those jobs. So, as congregations shrink, they run the risk of collapsing altogether. In the corridor, however, there won't likely be the element of too much travel which accelerates the collapse.

As a real estate and ranching entity though, they're likely to hang around for a long, very long time. Although, it may get tough if they have to actually pay for employees to work the jobs, rather than relying on volunteers.

It will shrivel slowly, not collapse, IMHO. In the US it will continue to provide social support system for college educated Mormons transferred to new cities by corporate employers.

The collapse of it as a viable religion and belief system has already started.

Barring a massive bust by one or more federal agencies, the corporation itself or its individual subsidiaries will live on for decades.

I think it will eventually stabilize or shrink, but not collapse. Some contributing factors might be:

a.) More people in the Morridor leave the church, making membership less necessary to maintain work and social relationships.

b.) More businesses relocate to the Morridor, bringing in a higher proportion of nevermos.

c.) Mormons stop caring about being temple worthy. The temple comes to be seen as a "one and done."

d.) Something happens that disgusts even the most faithful, probably involving church finances.

e.) Internet access improves, especially among people who are most vulnerable to the Mormon message.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/07/2016 11:45AM by summer.

Like most of you here, I too don't think that the mighty morg will collapse. They have diversified too much and invested in other money makers. They will keep milking the members because that has been so successful in the past.

But, I would opinionate that in 20+ years there will only be service missionaries being sent out. Door knocking will cease to exit and only be a faint memory to those still alive.

The mighty morg will morph into an exclusive club much like a gated community. It will become more self servicing and individual donations will disappear. Investment dividends will be the main fuel of the Mighty Morg Machine.

They have to have young people "testify" in order to reinforce their minds that the church is true.

I remember when my son came home from his mission, he said that he HAD to believe the church because otherwise, he'd feel too guilty for testifying so humbly to others. It took him several years to make the break.

I'm not sure he believed it even at the time, but if you tell yourself something enough times, you are more likely to believe it.

That's part of the plan. That's why the leaders discourage service missions as much as they can.

Collapse in progress in Colorado now.
I may post a separate topic about this development.
The 2 Boulder wards are so pathetic (lack of attendance, inactivity, apathy, youth defecting, and so on) that they will be combined into only one Boulder ward. Used to be Boulder Ward and Flatirons Ward. Boulder is a substantial town of about 100,000 and the LDS boundary extends all the way west to the continental divide (mountain towns like Nederland and various small towns).

There's a very nice big LDS building in Boulder that used to serve the 2 wards plus the student ward (CU Boulder). The students are probably happy because now they only have to share the building with one regular family ward.

Boulder Stake created in 1973. After 40+ years of efforts, the LDS group in the Boulder area is shrinking and headed towards nothingness.

The Boulder Stake includes nearby areas like Louisville, Lafayette, Erie, Broomfield and so on.

There's 34 stakes in Colorado and a new temple in Ft Collins, so the church isn't going away anytime soon.

Student wards: Both big campuses (CU Boulder & CSU Ft Collins) have roughly 33,000 students or so. Yet each location only has one tiny student LDS branch. I can't cite statistics, but I believe that large numbers of LDS kids are active through HS and then head off to CU or CSU to drift off into inactivity (intentionally or just as a natural progression).

Wow. Really? I attended the Broomfield 2nd ward from 1982-85. Those years were my Blazer and Deacon years.

At the time, there were two very robust wards just in Broomfield alone. Each one had a very active scouting program. We were in the Boulder Stake. I seem to recall that Boulder at the time had at least 3 or 4 wards. Then there was Longmont and Louisville.

The last time I passed through that area in 2004, I was amazed to see how the area between Broomfield and Boulder had filled in with houses. There used to be a 10 mile stretch of no man's land out there.

And yet the church has shrunk? Amazing!

I'm in the Longmont stake, the stake that borders the Boulder stake. I attended the Flatirons Ward at one point. It was relatively strong, with very educated, wealthy members. Surprised to see it going away. Like Boulder, Longmont is struggling. Sacrament attendance has decreased significantly over the last few years (by more than 20%). The Longmont and Boulder stake tend to have very educated members, more so than other places I've lived. The problem seems to be people move away. The committed members go to Utah, and others who are comfortable anywhere, move for career purposes. Boulder county is very expensive, so it's very difficult for young families to move in. Finally, it's a very secular area, but it does have several mega churches that draw in the well to do with lots of social networking. I think the Longmont and Boulder Stakes will eventually combine. One other item. A CES director (and high councilor) in Boulder was recently fired and given the boot. Basically, things are messy in Boulder County Colorado.

for telling my Boulder friend about the church--way back when (about 40 years ago). Luckily, she didn't listen to me.

I don't think that it will. It will probably become a much smaller religion with mostly hard core true believers.

The "for profit" part will take over the major funding and most of the "Temples" will cease to operate.
IMHO only

I don't think it will ever be totally gone. Cults will always retain some of their members, unless the kool-aid is used.

October 27, 2067.

Please make a note of it...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/07/2016 06:24PM by csuprovograd.

Hey, that's a Thursday! That's not good, per my schedule...

Could you put it off til the weekend?

The end of the church of mormon may be postponed for 24 hrs only if you already have a tee time set...

When Jesus returns and goes into every Mormon temple and beats the shit out of the money changers, and then curses the living Mormon prophet and apostles with a skin of blackness and burns down the goddamn mall. So basically, I don't think the church will collapse.

Almost certainly not in my lifetime. The days of rapid growth are long gone, and we're probably already at the point where it takes some creative spinning of the numbers to show any growth at all, but it's not going away for a very long time. There are still 3-5 million active members who are having lots of kids, and TSCC is very entrenched in the moridor.

as long as there is a buck to be made--I'm guessing never.

It won't collapse.

Mormonism now is WAY DIFFERENT than Mormonism in Nauvoo in the
early 1840s. It's WAY DIFFERENT than Mormonism was in Utah in
the 1880s. It's WAY DIFFERENT than it was when I was a Mormon
kid growing up in the 50s and 60s.

Mormonism won't collapse, it will adapt.

It's a totally different church than the one you and I grew up in. Not only the social aspects, but the doctrine.

It's a franchise, like Arby's. Your local restaurant may close for lack of business, but the chain is still there. They might change the flavor of sh!t in their sh!t sandwiches or change up the bread. After much denial, people are waking up to what they've been eating. So, the franchise will shrink for sure. Collapse isn't the normal pattern of cults.

I think Baura is right. The Church survived major changes in the past such as relocations and polygamy. The Church will adapt as it already has. There may be "weeping and gnashing of teeth" but as each generation of new leaders come on board changes will be made.

The GAs are living too long, which is ossifying their decisionmaking. The average apostle is in his 80s, meaning he's not even a Baby Boomer. They are too old and out of touch to lead a massive church.

A leaked video on gay marriage showed Oaks declaring that states will ban gay marriage, and the lawyer had to tell him that at the time, over 30 states had legalized gay marriage. Oaks, an attorney, seemed shocked by this.

In the past, they could wait for an apostle to die to make changes. Bruce McConkie's death at 69 opened the door for removing the racist doctrines. Had he lived to 89, they might have been fighting over this well into the 1980s.

They have lost all flexibility, giving power to dottery old men rather than guys who still have some fire in their bellies and some connection to the real world.

I agree with this. They are not capable of adapting in any meaningful way. Therefore they, themselves will usher in the decline. Like I said before, I don't think they will collapse completely, but they will decline a great deal as a church. They have the deck stacked against them.

All religions are dying in first world counties. Mormonism is built on volunteerism and people have less and less time, money, and desire to do what it takes to run a congregation. And the leadership is hell bent on not changing anything. These things will cause the church to not just decline, but accelerate the rate of decline.

there is no real mormon church. its all pretend.

I doubt it will ever collapse. Unlike Scientology, it has generations of loyal members. However, it is shrinking. Converts are down and not staying. TBM families have shrunk to 3 kids, and they are only keeping 40% of those kids. They are hunkering down on the gay issue even as they birth hundreds of thousands of gay Mormons.

I think Mormonism goes with a whimper, not a collapse. 20 years from now, it will still be around, but much smaller and still trying to catch up to the social issues they are fighting now.

From a global perspective, there's not much to collapse. It's more successful as a business than it is as a religion. Only about 30% of "members" participate, and part of those are there under duress, or they willingly attend for social reasons but don't actually believe. So let's say 20% are actual believers and that half of those are minors who "believe" only because that's the way they were raised. That leaves about 1.6 million faithful "saints." Zero point two percent of the world population.

There are maps that show the distribution of Mormons in the US. High concentration in the Morridor, then near invisibility in the rest of the country. And the US has the highest concentration of Mormons in the world.

As a social group, no. It will live on as long as people identify it as their tribe.

The Salt Lake church could possibly collapse if there were some huge wikileaks type of revelation showing nefarious financial dealings but it appears that the church's computers are more secure than the federal governments.

hang on, my crystal ball is foggy right now.

Not going to happen. Why? As a business, it keeps reinventing itself to stay alive. Although it's not relevant to a lot of people's lives today, it will try to at least continue to give the appearance of relevance.

Unfortunately, it also has strong connections and ties to U.S. business and government and for that reason, will likely continue to exist in that whomever benefits the most from it in government circles (those aspects of government that use its services e.g. RMs for government and military job, etc.) will continue to support it.

I went with my long time BF to his ward's bonfire. The Bishop came over and we were all chatting. He stated the Area Authority had a meeting with the leadership of the area stakes. He stated the wards were going to be smaller and there would be more of them. That "gives more leadership opportunities for the Priesthood." I gave "the mom look" and he stammered, "and the women too." In front of his Bishop I said I was glad I was out.

This administrative restructuring too will backfire. It reduces ward size to the same level as branches. Whether it was the Mexican branch in the Temple View stake of the 60s or the branches in missions, members just doubled up on callings, while the percentage of attendees correspondingly dropped. Ultimately, it reduces to one or two people running the entire production. In the meantime, the building overhead dictates increasing consolidation. That's the way it has been since I was a youth, and how it was in BY's time.

When there are no more credulous people.
When there is no longer a buck to be made in religion.

Mormonism has a foot hold generationally, particularly in the US, which will continue on for some time, on some level. It is big enough to survive a lot of attrition and "name removal" aka resignation. It is not just a church. The whole empire (official LDS Church), is a group of corporations that can also function with a declining membership.
It's influence is paramount where it is the local predominate religion both in government, schools, etc.

It is not going to collapse. It may dwindle some, over the decades in certain areas, but it will not disappear entirely, at least, not in the next 100 or 200 years. A major collapse of some sort would take it out, perhaps.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/12/2016 07:50PM by SusieQ#1.

Never! Like many things in life, there will always be suckers who fall for bunch of baloney.

My guess is more contraction, abandoning mainstreaming, rapprochement with the AUB and other non-FLDS polygamous groups, back to small, Utah-centric tribal "we're Mormons, not Christians" church

I think it will shrink considerably with every succeeding generation. The older TBM's are pretty devout. The middle aged are over burdened but hanging on. The millenials are getting fed up. And the toddlers will probably be freaking that they have to tell their friends at school they are Mormons. The heartland will still be Utah but the decline of funds rolling into SLC from the hinterlands will make it difficult to sustain much outside Utah. And as the gleaming city in SLC stays bright as the outlying stakes dwindle, dry up, and blow away it will be hard to make Mormonism look like a success story let alone a worldwide sensation.

If we are talking hundreds of years I think most religion will go into decline as archeological discoveries, science and technology make old time religion look more and more ridiculous. If anything survives it will be the traditions that people enjoy like stringing up lights, decorating their homes with lovely smelling evergreens, drinking eggnog, exchanging gifts, etc. Most of this goes back to pagan rituals that people still enjoy but have no association with pagan gods. Mormonism will probably do as the RLDS did. They will dilute the beliefs and then merge into whatever is socially trending. They are kind of doing this now but the really old folks will have to die before it can happen smoothly.

Were there some sort of combination of financial crisis and tithe paying member exodus the collapse could be very dramatic. Never underestimate the extraordinary cost of maintaining such a massive number of properties.

However, to expedite the process the best thing to do would be take away the property tax exemption.

The internet has ushered in a new era of information that isn't going away.

The 15 old guys are really really old and will only change by buckling under pressure way way to late.

When members leave, they aren't coming back, like they did pre internet. Also tithe paying tbms are leaving, not fringe members

The cult will notice the lack of leadership, and the reduction of money.

And the cult will continue to deflate.

I went to a church meeting several years ago. It was my nephew's missionary farewell. My BIL was the ward bishop. It was a small chapel and the place was about 20 percent full. Same with the other ward that met in that building as I checked for my own amusement. My BIL freely admits that his ward runs on a skeleton crew basis. There are only a handful of families that really care/ believe and they are doubled and tripled up on callings. Instead of consolidating the wards like they should, LDS Inc is operating like that to keep the number of wards inflated and to maintain an abnormal amount of vanity leadership callings, like bishop, as a carrot on a stick motivation to the few faith active. In that environment, it is well know that any priestDUD holder who is active and shows any enthusiasm is in contention to run for office and has a great shot for ward bishop.

Here is a talk from that horrible meeting, Yah If I have to sit through a MORmON meeting then I am going to shoot some video!!!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9AVj0lSQ_Yg

Personally, the thing that I am looking for is when LDS Inc is compelled to sell off one of their temples.

Mormonism as a religion has already collapsed. Mormonism as a racket will go on like any other racket until someone stops it.

I don't think Mormonism will collapse. My guess is it will be watered down even more. They will call it new revelations.