This post was inspired by Grant Palmer's introductory remarks here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kHsvZooc4Bc&feature=youtu.be
This prologue dealt with the exodus from the church and its future.

I have long been a fan of Hans Rosling's work as a statistician specialising in population dynamics. As a math undergrad it's especially fascinating to me.

The point I want to make is how two phenomenom may have significant impact on the church's future. First, the population of the world does not grow equally everywhere, it has leveled out to replacement or below-replacement rates in most developed nations, thus making the population growth areas of the world the poorest. But, as these poor populations raise themselves out of extreme poverty into poverty, or out of poverty into the middle class, education levels increase and fertility rates decline.

What does this have to do with the Mormons? From what I understand, the Church's most rapid convert growth arises out of South America and Africa. In my own anecdote, as a ward in Europe the majority of our recent converts come from refugees.

I wouldn't say this is necessarily a bad thing: perhaps the church in many cases serves as a bridge from hyperpatriarchal cultures and disorderly lifestyles to a more equal-partner centered, education and progress-centered lifestyle. (But, as we in Europe and America can attest, many of us are growing up and out of hyperpatriarchy be it within or outside of the church. For many of us, the church is now too patriarchal, we've progressed beyond it.)

So I would posit that the Church may continue to become lopsided and less American-centric in its membership. But, that presents a serious problem for it. The church is very demanding of its members, even in France where I live the average hours of participation every week are much lower than in the US. And those in poverty have even less time to serve in the church. That's why the church needs programs like Pathways to help cover the gaps for impoverished members.

But, as we can see, the church leadership is not representative of the distribution of the membership by country. I would speculate that if the church could call more Seventies from foreign countries, etc... they would, so very possibly the issue is that it is harder for the church to find priesthood-holders well-groomed enough to serve at that level.

I have more thoughts on this, if you have any interest I would love to hear some feedback.

Also, you can view a start of Hans Rosling's statstical presentation here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FACK2knC08E

(BTW the world just lost Rosling to pancreatic cancer. He was a compassionate, brilliant man who will be missed.)

Thanks for reading!

I can see TSCC being confined to Africa one day. All they need is a modern prophet who is crazy enough to pick out a location for the new New Jerusalem. If they are lucky they might find a narrow stretch of land that can become the geographic location of the elusive Nephite and Lamanite civilizations. Doctrine can be changed relatively easily.

The alternative, keeping conversion rates up in the developed world, is not so easy. Eventually they will move their headquarters to where the most tithing money comes from.

I think the future of Mormonism is awesome.

1. Due to how God is super unchanging and he, through his servants, has emphasized the importance of redeeming Jackson County as Zion, its pretty certain that any talk of the future of Mormonism must center around HQ relocating there super soon. Otherwise people would think of the Church as a big joke instead of taking it seriously.

2. The anti-Moroni fanatics who believe in various so-called sciences will be discredited. Those "limited geography" and mixing quackery ideas are absurd in light of what Moroni and others taught.

3. The literal descendants of Father Lehi are going to have to be more vocal in social media and throughout the Church in honor of their ancestry. You know the prophecies about the Lamanites blossoming as a rose and that means no more hiding in the shadows for them. Its time to come out of that closet.

4. When people think of Mormonism they will think "of course its the true church" as they see how its the most honest and transparent organization ever. Only people who are working to disprove it would suppose that they should ever be anything but 100% transparent and true.

What a marvelous work and a wonder is the Church. Get some popcorn and watch the next few decades unfold.

Are you Brother Jake?

LOM, I am not Brother Jake.

Now some may ask why I write LOM and its for "laugh out moderately" as I think we all know what a grievous sin it is to "laugh out loud" for those who are endowed.with sacred heavenly blessings.


Sometimes people here start thinking I am writing parody because they, for some reason (such as not looking at.all the church's detailed transparent statistical and financial reports for each year this past decade) allow themselves to believe that the Church isn't the most truthful and honest Church ever. I think that seeing how accurate the Book of Abraham facsimiles.were.translated should settle this matter. Only an unbeliever would think that Joseph didn't get those.things right.

"But, as we can see, the church leadership is not representative of the distribution of the membership by country. I would speculate that if the church could call more Seventies from foreign countries, etc... they would, so very possibly the issue is that it is harder for the church to find priesthood-holders well-groomed enough to serve at that level."

...continuing from this^^^^

So what will happen as the awareness of the indefensible truth claims becomes universal?
What will happen as the church has less-trained leadership worldwide?

Grant Palmer, at the end of the video, says that if we look at history, religions don't go away. But I am skeptical. I think it is totally possible that the Church gets devastated in my lifetime.

The church in many areas of the world would be devastated with just a few leaders learning the truth and leaving. The church in my mission was held together by just a handful of families and the missionaries. There wasn't a single ward in my mission that had enough active men to even really be a ward. This was an area with 10's of thousands of baptisms reported over the last 30-40 years, and the church is already almost non-existent there. It would be done for if the few leaders learned the truth.

I wonder if the model of a "world wide church" can really work over the length of time. In Africa it's the Evangelicals that are doing really well. They have their harvest crusades and brag about saving 20,000 in one sitting. How many of those people actually stick around for years and tithe to Benny Hinn for the rest of their lives is another question. But the holy roller tradition of unorganized religion seems to be working really well at present.

Successful countries tend to be nationalistic in nature with a great sense of pride in their race and culture and religion. Their nations have great power in their churches. Denmark, England, Spain, America are all good examples. But for a Utah based culture to be telling diverse people how to do things, it just cant work over the long run. People have their pride.

"But for a Utah based culture to be telling diverse people how to do things, it just cant work over the long run. People have their pride."

Good point. And, there's still much good and wisdom in poorer cultures...I recognise that me saying "disorderly lifestyles" can be considered condescending and overly judgmental.

As long as the church has something unique to offer, it will be here forever.

However, many statements the church has given lately has further watered down it's difference from the rest of the religions.

The church is now doing "interfaith" events... they are reaching out to other churches and trying to mingle.

They also have officially stated that there will be people of many faiths in heaven.

All wishes aside, if they continue to hold on to the BoM, prophets, and the "only true church" (which is not exclusive to Mormonism), they have the lasting power to stick around for hundreds of years simply because it is something different than other churches and people like to feel special that they know something that others do not.

As staying in Salt Lake City would make it difficult to shed their old, negative image, I believe that the church is planning to move its headquarters to Nona Lake. Is that not why they are building a big city there?

I think people will wise up after twenty more years and figure out that they've been played and all walk away at once leaving no more base and no one left to clean the toilets.

...which ignores the fallacious truth claims... but that becomes a problem--to put it generally--when we rely on priesthood revelation and accept it as major directives for our lives, rippling through every aspect and to our fellow man.

I think at some point the Church will need to distance itself from a whole bunch of things in order to stand for integrity in a more and more transparent world (at least, to those who are paying attention.)

And it needs to do so especially if it wants to stand up for its values, such as:


1 Valuing human life as divine in origin
2 Our treatment of others as directly linked to our respect of the Divine and ultimately our experience with the Divine
3 Personal choice and personal revelation
4 Forgiveness and repentance bringing us closer to the Truth and the Divine
5 All humanity being connected, the importance of doing right by our ancestors and also our descendents
6 Character being determined based on what one knows, and when we know better, if we're good, we try to do better
7 Family is our first, most important circle of influence, no success can compensate for deliberate neglect of family
8 Learning is essential to personal growth
9 We are stewards of the earth
10 The Divine and portions of Truth can be manifest to some extent in most if not all religions and people.

*Values not necessarily in a particular order.

11. Don't be a lying sack of dookie.