There's an interesting article in the NY Times about the declining US birthrate. The graphics tell an interesting story. From 1996 to 2007 the birthrate in the MoZone was up 20 to 35 percent, depending on the county. But from 2007 to 2019 it was DOWN 20 to 35 percent in the same areas.

The prime reason for the decline (according to the article)? Young women with careers delaying motherhood. I guess fewer 20-something Mormon women are buying into the church's claims about women's roles.


https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/16/us/declining-birthrate-motherhood.html

You can add two other major reasons:

Child rearing has become very expensive.

Infertility rates have been on the rise for decades.

Back when there were family farms and ranches people wanted large families because it was cheap labor. If you live in a modern urban setting children aren’t an asset. They are an expense.

Also, the marriages of adult children created alliances with other families, strengthening their social and political clout. The more children you had, the more alliances you could form. And more adult children—particularly sons—meant more enterprises you could have your hands in.

I've spoken to many people that were part of large mormon families. Many hated being a lost child among a group of 8 to 10 kids. They want small families where they can give more go fewer kids.

I would say for teachers, 2-3 kids is the norm. Sometimes you might see four kids, but more than that is unusual. I would say it's about the same for most women with careers. You only have so much time and energy (and even money) to give.

It used to be that someone making a low wage could still maintain a car, house and family. It's simply not true now.

It used to be that we humans had the feeling that resources and space were infinite. Now the reality of overpopulation (e.g. ocean plastic islands, pollution, etc.) is looming in all our decisions.

I'm reminded of the growth curve of bacteria on a Petri dish. They reproduce rapidly at first, then as resources and space deplete the bell shaped growth curve slows and then declines. I wonder if humans are responding the same way to conditions here on Earth Petri dish. Then humans hang their hopes on populating space so they can continue to grow like kudzu.

Economic reasons largely contribute to this of course, and also uppity women thinking they deserve to make life choices for themselves. Poverty tends to create conditions for women having no options and no good ways to plan children.

I think increasingly that things like pollution, plastics, soy, and who knows what else might be impacting fertility.

I cannot access the article without paying, so I apologize if the article covered these things with supporting information.

There are too many darn people. Too many ecosystems with their fauna and flora are disappearing. Climate change will stress life more with plagues, droughts, and starvation I suspect. We've peed in our Petri dish a long time. It's going to take a lot more cooperation and management for us to reproduce responsibly across the globe. Education for all is essential.

"uppity women thinking they deserve to make life choices for themselves."

Woman, they're the worst...

another knife in the back of ChurchCo;

their track record of bucking social trends isn't to be envied!

My mom, your basic hard-core TBM, came from a family of 12, of which 10 made it to adulthood. Pre-WWII, child mortality was pretty high, and my parents' generation were at the tail end of the time when about 45% of children never made it to adulthood.

Anyway, almost the entire family was TBM. There were a couple of apostates blazing the trail for me. :). Yet not a one of the 10 siblings had large families. One had 5 (pretty large), one had 4, and I believe all the rest were three of fewer. Those kids were boomers. I've lost track of most of my Mormon relatives of the next generation, but I don't know of any that had more than 3 kids, and of the generation after that, which is still in their child bearing years, but getting close to 40, none have more than 2 kids. And this is in Utah, the parents raised in Utah County.

Most people are not going to have kids until they can afford a house, and that is increasingly climbing out of reach for all but the affluent in Utah. With a lot of two-income families, prices rise so that only two-income families can afford single family detached houses, unless you are willing to live in the fringes of the suburbs, and even some of those areas are pricey.

The article says the sharpest decline in birthrates is in states with the strongest job markets.

Utah has one of the strongest job markets in the country.

::Cue ominous music::

Young people need three Utah jobs to pay the rent.

Raising kids on $8 an hour just isn't very appealing to young folks.

It's pretty simple, really. There are two dynamics that are evident virtually everywhere in the world.

1) Birthrates fall as the average level of women's education rises, and

2) Birthrates fall as per capita income rises.

Those rules are as true of the United States as anywhere else. In fact, it's a mistake to look for local causes for a global phenomenon because the latter is by definition more important than the former.

Another very powerful rule is that economic growth depends on population growth. There are two other sources of GDP improvements but population/labor is extremely important. That's why growth in the rich countries around the world has been under pressure for decades.

The one partial exception to that rule is the United States, where the fertility rate is relatively high and relatively resilient because of immigration. Put simply, poor people from other countries retain their high birthrates for a generation or so after entering the country which is a big plus for the national economy. If it were not for those immigrants the US annual growth rate would be roughly half a percentage point lower year in and year out.

There are people on RfM who will find that unnerving but it isn't really up for debate. It's a mathematical fact.

people moving from places of HIGH & Very High areas of rapidly rising housing prices move to 'low' areas (IMW) bring lots of appreciation with them when they sell.

Utah TBMs are scared of moving to places like Cali because of higher costs, commuting time, etc.

there is a wave of baby-boomer retirees doing this, I'm guessing it's common in Utah / SLC prices & trends.

I thought the birth rate is in decline because of the decline in drive-in movie theaters…

Well, let's see. Young guy has a "gig" job off the books and wife is a waitress for $2.50 and tips. No benefits, no insurance. College degrees went down the financial toilet in the 2008 meltdown.

Great time to make some kids.

If you're the kid, your parents are renters, no savings to speak of, and mom puts off a baby until age 40 (you), it's a wonderful life.

cojcoldus interruptus!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/17/2021 02:07AM by lurking in.

Good.
The church is losing members on both ends: born in and resignations.

When I had my twins in 1985, I had great insurance. I paid 95 cents a paycheck. My insurance paid every penny of my bills. My husband worked at the hospital and his insurance, since we had 2, paid every penny of the twins' bills and they had to stay longer than just a few days--a week is how long.

It shocks me what it costs to have a baby without good insurance and where is there good insurance? Even the insurance my "husband" has at the hospital now has a $6000 deductible. We have a way around that with the fact that the drug company pays $7500 on his meds and the insurance accepts that as our deductible, or we'd be paying all out of pocket.

Insurance is a huge reason, BUT there are a few families with 3 kids in my neighborhood. One only has 1 kid. I have 2 kids. I wanted 8. Oh hell! What was I thinking? One neighbor (next door) has 6 kids and the bishop on the other side has 5 kids. Most in the this "ward" have 4, 5, or 6.

My husband's current boyfriend is #14 of 14. My daughter's ex-fiance (she bailed a week before the wedding) was 16 of 16 kids. Can you imagine being 16 of 16? My BIL is #1 of 13. He never once remembers his parents helping him learn to read. They never did the reading assignments after school. His mom was 16 when she married. Father was 29. They had 4 kids by the time she was 20 as she had twins with the third pregnancy. I come from 6. I think 6 is the absolute limit and I FEEL for my poor mother having to deal with us.

But per Ted Callister that is evil! A sign of the influence of Satan in These Last Days! He said so just last week!!!!!!!