Avi Loeb is not a Joseph Smith or Erich von Däniken, but the problem is the same: evaluating extraordinary claims that require extraordinary evidence.


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https://www.theguardian.com/science/2023/nov/29/the-alien-hunter-has-harvard-avi-loeb-found-proof-of-extraterrestrial-life

A distinguished scientist, Loeb has published hundreds of papers, as well as a bestselling book, Extraterrestrial: The First Sign of Intelligent Life Beyond Earth. But he was relatively unknown until a peculiarly shaped object zoomed through our solar system in 2017. Astronomers described it as having “extreme dimensions” and concluded it must be interstellar. Officially known as 1I/2017 U1, it was given the nickname ’Oumuamua – Hawaiian for “scout” or “first distant messenger” and pronounced like a child startled by a cow: Oh mooer mooer.

’Oumuamua was long, thin and flat, like a pancake. After further analysis, astronomers spotted more anomalies. They determined that before telescopes detected the object, it had accelerated while travelling past the sun. This is normal for comets, rocky icebergs that melt in the heat and release gases that act like booster rockets. This is what gives comets their signature tail, but this asteroid didn’t have one. According to Loeb: “No tail, no comet.” In a paper co-written with Sean Kirkpatrick, the director of the All-domain Anomaly Resolution Office, which investigates UFOs for the US Department of Defense, Loeb later hypothesised that ’Oumuamua could be a solar sail from an interstellar craft, using sunlight to accelerate through space. In other words, it belonged to aliens.

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Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 11/29/2023 11:24AM by anybody.

'Oumuamua probably isn't an alien probe...but it did come from beyond our solar system. But it's a good study in scientific debate and evaluating competing theories based on the same phenomenon.


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https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/2103/2103.05559.pdf

Abstract

‘Oumuamua, the first known object of extrasolar origin seen to enter our Solar System,
has multiple unusual characteristics that, taken together, are very difficult to explain with
conventional astronomical entities like asteroids and comets. Consequently, it has been
hypothesized that ‘Oumuamua is an interstellar probe that was constructed by an alien
civilization. We demonstrate that the accomplishments that can be achieved with large
space telescopes/interferometers in the alien’s planetary system will completely quench
any motivation for construction and launch of an ‘Oumuamua-like probe. The absence of
any such motivation attests that ‘Oumuamua is not an alien creation. The existence of
large space telescopes has important implications for a range of topics that include
interstellar space travel, the Zoo Hypothesis, METI, and UFOs.

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Daily Beast article on the debate.


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https://www.thedailybeast.com/is-oumuamua-an-alien-probe-or-a-weird-comet-this-space-mystery-wont-end


Bergner objected to that characterization. She told The Daily Beast that scientists from many different fields are doing their best to understand ‘Oumuamua. “A lot of very novel and creative ideas have been proposed to try to explain its behavior.”

Roush conceded that the scientific establishment does have a “phobia of talking about extraterrestrials.” That phobia could work for skeptics such as Seligman and Bergner and against freethinkers such as Loeb. The former might be more likely to be taken seriously, even if their studies include basic flaws, like Loeb claimed.

“Personally I think Avi is more likely to be wrong than right about ‘Oumuamua,” Roush said. “But I will defend to the death any scientist's right to have their ideas heard respectfully and judged on the merits, even if they come with perceived cultural stigma.”

Brian Keating, a cosmologist at the University of California, San Diego, tried to stake out a middle ground between Loeb and the skeptics. They’re both doing important work, and in good faith.

Whichever side ultimately turns out to be correct—Loeb with his aliens hypothesis, the skeptics positing their odd comet—humanity stands to learn something new, Keating stressed. “If the object is a comet, it’s not as interesting,” he said, “but it still would be of note for astronomers because it isn’t like anything we’ve ever seen before.”

One thing about Oumuamua not stopping, not even to empty their bilge, is that it means they found us to be uninteresting.

Sort of like when you see the missionaries coming your way, knocking on doors, but then after getting pumped up about how you're going to handle it, they skip your house...

elderolddog Wrote:
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> One thing about Oumuamua not stopping, not even to
> empty their bilge, is that it means they found us
> to be uninteresting.

Maybe Oumuamua visited earth four billion years ago and dumped its bilge then. Would that not explain a lot of what has subsequently happened?

Oh, yeah, they're ashamed of the results!

It makes me think of that high school biology lesson, "When you hear hoofbeats, think horses, not zebras" -- one of the more useful lessons that I learned in school. Thank you, dear teacher. :)