I had already eliminated all but one item on your list and I am now paying a neighbor kid to open my mail, so I'm good now.

Thanks, Dave!

These 12 ranked States (or District) have mortalities above the U.S. average.

Louisiana made the cut because of runaway infections during Mardi Gras.

Top 9 U.S. jurisdictions w/
COVID-19 Deaths per 1M pop.

New Jersey (B) ............... 1,736
New York (B) .................. 1,661
Connecticut (B) .............. 1,218
Massachusetts (B) ......... 1,196
Rhode Island (B) ............... 917
D.C. (B) .............................. 799
Louisiana (R) ..................... 719
Michigan (b) ...................... 627
Illinois (B) .......................... 577
Maryland (B) ..................... 542
Pennsylvania (b) ............... 537
Delaware (B) ..................... 529


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blue_wall_%28politics%29?wprov=sfla1

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us

#ChinaLiedPeopleDied
#StandWithHongKong
#RememberTiananmenSquare

So your data are backward-looking. They include the huge surge of cases and deaths that occurred back when the White House was calling the pandemic a "hoax" and then banned some travelers from China at a time when the East Coast was being overwhelmed by infections from Europe.

Do you have current data, since that would indicate which state governments are acting appropriately now?

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covid19-death-rates-us-by-state/

Although Texas (#40 @ 10 p/M and Florida #25 @ 18 p/M) have had recent upticks, certain states remain higher, as they did at the outset. I note that I live in one of them.

Those are identical charts. The only difference is a factor of ten in the denominator.

What would be interesting is to see weekly averages or moving averages over time. And frankly the rates of infection would be more useful as a gauge of policy and implementation since deaths are a lagging indicator.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/09/2020 12:56AM by Lot's Wife.

Best I know of offhand is this one, it shows % incr/decr of infections (not deaths) in every state & territory over various recent time periods.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/map-track-summer-2020-coronavirus-hotspots-united-states-n1231332

It's sortable on any field.

Huge number of positives are asymptomatic: people under 50 who got it, showed few or no symptoms, and shook it off. Happily, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Michigan finally realized that infected people should not be put in nursing and assisted living homes. Took them long enough!

Thanks, Captain Obvious. I'm aware they're cases. That's why I explicitly said they're cases and not deaths. However:

- The positives can be presymptomatic rather than asymptomatic.

- More cases now mean more deaths later. You'll need to wait a few weeks for the current surge to impact the death rate.

- It's not necessarily a binary outcome, death or full recovery. There have been recoveries that still have some form of debilitation which could potentially last for a long time. If someone "recovers" yet has scarred lungs or possibly brain damage, looking solely at deaths is arguably too narrow a focus.

-----

"Happily, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts and Michigan finally realized that infected people should not be put in nursing and assisted living homes."

Right; Florida, Texas and Arizona won't make that mistake and therefore have to come up with another explanation as their own hospitals exceed capacity.

synonymous Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> Right; Florida, Texas and Arizona won't make that
> mistake and therefore have to come up with another
> explanation as their own hospitals exceed
> capacity.

The backlog of postponed hospital procedures.

No, that doesn't work at all, because it's happening *now*.

https://theweek.com/speedreads/924264/dozens-florida-intensive-care-units-are-full-texas-arizona-hospitals-are-quickly-filling

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/08/us/emergency-room-doctors-coronavirus-capacity/index.html

This is all virus. The "backlog" catchup comes later.

>What would be interesting is to see weekly averages or moving averages over time

from the worldometers site, you can click on individual states and see a graph of daily new cases and daily deaths. You can also select the running 3 and 7 day averages for each of those.

Maryland spiked like NY did, but we got it under control quickly.

Hey, you two, just don't use the USPS to communicate and you'll be fine!!

How do you know how long the string is? I may live right around the corner.

Now try to sleep with THAT possibility in mind.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How do you know how long the string is? I may
> live right around the corner.

I wish you did!
>
> Now try to sleep with THAT possibility in mind.

Thank you very much, but I'm very mindful of whom I sleep with (Mrs. C).

Nighty-nite!

And YOU, mangy mutt, should shut up and go paint your doghouse.

Some day I must have a conversation with Ms. Saucie about her taste in men. . .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/09/2020 03:14AM by Lot's Wife.

Okay, I followed Synonymous's and [|]'s instructions and ran the numbers to check caffiend's argument that COVID problems are more pronounced in Democratic states than Republican ones. My conclusion is that the data show the opposite.

What I did was randomly choose a starting date of May 27, which is as good as any other, and an ending date of July 8. Then I took seven-day moving averages to eliminate any idiosyncratic spikes. I chose NOT to use death rates, since they are a lagging indicator: infection rates are immediately evident, deaths follow by a few weeks.

The data generally support the notion that in the last few months Democratic states have done much better than Republican ones. Here are the data for the six states I randomly selected:

Republican:
AZ has seen a 10-fold increase in infections
TX has seen a 7-fold increase
FL has seen a 13-fold increase

Democratic:
NY has seen an 80% decrease in infections
MA has seen a 50% decrease
CA has seen a 5-fold increase

California is the exception to the rule. It is a Democratic state that has experienced an acceleration in infections approaching Republican rates. The answer to the paradox lies in the county-level data, which show that by far the main source of the California explosion is Orange County and neighboring, disproportionately Republican, parts of southern California.

The conclusion to which this leads is unsurprising: Republican-dominated parts of the US are faring far worse than Democrat-led regions. As for causation, one possibility is that GOP voters are uniquely vulnerable to COVID; but the more probable one is that they and their leaders have not taken the disease seriously enough.

But we can go farther. We can predict that in a few weeks the Red parts of the country will see a sharp increase in death rates--which is presumably a suboptimal election strategy. Furthermore since the US is faring far worse than any of the other OECD economies, it is fair to say that Republican constituencies are leading the entire rich world in suffering.

Not something of which to be proud.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/09/2020 03:09PM by Lot's Wife.

Fortuitously and unfortunately, the LA Times is now describing a sharp acceleration in COVID deaths in AZ, AL, FL, TX, and other GOP-leaning states.

Chickens, meet roost.



https://www.yahoo.com/news/covid-19-death-tolls-now-163213180.html



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/09/2020 04:19PM by Lot's Wife.

Although CA is indeed a Dem-controlled state, what's often overlooked is that it isn't some Blue Oklahoma-style monolith. Only Texas and Florida recorded more votes than CA for DJT in 2016. CA is a massive state.

Away from the coastal population centers, CA is in fact quite conservative; that's how you get zealously pro-DJT congressional reps like McCarthy and Nunes.

Further, the sheer number of people living in CA guarantee that many will be as stupid and selfish as anywhere in the country. So it's not at all surprising that just due to its size, CA is (and will probably remain) among the numerical leaders in total cases/deaths (less so when measured per 100K residents).

Yes.