Actually, Utah smashed its all-time case record yesterday at 900 and some cases, and then totally blew that record out the window today with 1,117 cases.

Just a week ago the 7 day average of new cases was in the four hundreds.

So what happened? Mostly, BYU students are back in town. Utah County is leading the parade in new cases. Plus there was a holiday weekend ten days ago, and infections from then are beginning to show up.

Other universities are having similar experiences, though some schools are clearly having worse outbreaks than others. Magical Thinking ("it will just disappear") seems not to be working well.

Is there an institutional division for Darwin Awards?

The recent positive test rate in Utah was 12%, which is high. A 1% positive rate is what the epidemiologists would like to see. Two or three percent can be dealt with. Twelve percent is a problem.

Deaths have not spiked yet. Maybe there won't be a spike, since the bulk of infections are people in their 20s, and many of them are living with other students, which means limited contact with older vulnerable populations.

Deaths tend to lag infections by three weeks or so, so we should have a better idea of the fallout in early October.

ETA:
"Another 8,559 tests for the virus were processed in the last 24 hours, UDOH reported. The rolling seven-day rate of positive test results is at 12.5% — the fourth day in a row that statistic has set a record.

UDOH reported no new deaths from COVID-19, and the overall death toll remains at 437 people.

...

One major data point Dunn delivered: The positivity rate for COVID-19 tests in Utah County has reached 21%, meaning one out of every five people tested for the coronavirus comes back with a positive result."

--------------

21% is awful. :((



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 09/18/2020 04:06PM by Brother Of Jerry.

I've heard the same thing on this side of the Mississippi. Infections are spiking rapidly on college campuses. The plus side of that is that the death rate hasn't risen as quickly, although it's rising. But the down side is that the holidays are coming up. Those cases are the demographic who generally don't give a shit about anyone other than themselves and are not cautious or have any concern about the possibility of being asymptomatic and spreading it.

It's on us (the over-60 crowd) to be proactive ourselves. You keep hearing about how sad it will be if BettyBYU goes home for Turkey Day and gives it to Grandpa. Well, ya know what. Grandma and Grandpa maybe ought to stay away. Take personal responsibility. It's not a guarantee, but if you're depending on the college kids to care and be cautious, you've set yourself up to be drawn as Tribute.

I watch the numbers here in BC carefully. I like to keep my "panic" response measured. I live between the two biggest health regions in the province which are the ones reporting the highest numbers of cases and the most consistent ongoing new "outbreaks" - some counts are only 2 but the health authorities jump right on those as they are defined as occurring within institutions (hence potentially leading to spikes in case numbers) with the source being unknown (rather than occurring due to close contact with a known positive case). I am trying to avoid entering any medical clinics, labs or hospitals (to avoid potential exposure) but yesterday had to go into a hospital (that just reported a small outbreak) to pick up a relative after a medical procedure. I tried to hold my breath but that's an ineffective - and short-lived - prevention method, obviously. I definitely wore a mask. (I believe it may offer some protection to the wearer - I've heard some experts are coming around to that conclusion, after saying it's only to protect others). But even "only" to protect others I do it anyway.

Our numbers have been climbing. We were down in the 20s and 30s for new cases on a daily basis for a good long while but recently it's gone up to 120-130+ new cases a day. The public health officer (the main person in charge of calling the shots here on how to proceed safely) freaked when it started going up to 50/day and now it's been over 100/day for more than a week. As a large percentage of the spread has come from party places she recently mandated closure of banquet halls (cancelling/postponing a lot of weddings) and night clubs as well as early shutdowns of restaurants and bars (10 p.m.). Something about people who are out drinking who end up not remembering or not complying with the safety protocols (no crowds, distancing, masks, hygiene). Very disappointing for the businesses and party-goers and celebrants but reassuring to all those who want to see the numbers go back down.

We had 165 new cases reported yesterday here in BC. In Canada our test-positivity rate is 2.1%.

We've been lucky in terms of numbers, especially compared with other regions, but still we mourn the 9200 deaths Canada-wide to date. We've had nearly 141,000 total cases in the country. Many of the cases and deaths have been in care homes for the elderly, a tragedy and a scandal in terms of uncovering major issues with such institutions such as under-funding, lack of staff and questionable quality of care in some places.

Tragic situation all 'round, everywhere.

I've mentioned previously how fascinated I've always been with the scourges that have affected humans through the ages (i.e. Black Death, Spanish flu). I never thought I'd live through one, especially a world-wide pandemic.

Between the pandemic this year, ongoing obviously, and the accompanying economic woes, isolation, and stress, as well as now the smoky air here due to WN's forest fire wafting smoke in our direction, our own fog, and contribution from a major fire here that has sent black creosote-containing smoke into our air as well (from a massive fire on an old pier in the next town) it's been an especially challenging week. The smoke has blotted out daylight nearly and the sky is an eerie whitish-grey that seems to smother sound. People have asked if it's Armageddon - some seem to only be half-kidding. I'm no expert on End Times but I can well imagine why some wonder that, if only somewhat in jest (good eg of black humour). It's all so alien and everything at once it seems, prolonged and spooky and scary and it's easy to start feeling down. Yesterday afternoon the sun was a glowing ball in the overcast sky but looked more like a full moon on a foggy night. Good weather for a horror flick.

Be careful out there, everybody.

Beautiful summation of how "prolonged and spooky and scary" things have been, Nighty. I am so grateful to be retired, and not exposed to endless numbers of people at work.

I wish that 2020 was just a bad nightmare, and that we could wake up soon to a "normal" reality.

They want to see each other's faces... To see if anybody's lying, or standing on their own, or sitting on the fence.

Dummies

Those are insane numbers. Maryland was never that bad, even though we went through a very rough patch. Does Utah have a mask mandate? Everyone in Maryland has to wear a mask when in public buildings, or whenever they cannot socially distance.

The state in general does not have a mask mandate. Provo and SL City do. It may be county-wide in Salt Lake County. Much of the state is so rural and thinly populated, they really don't need a mask mandate.

That said, I took a stroll in downtown SLC last evening. There is a bar/restaurant on Main St called Whiskey Street, and it was SRO, with young people (20-somethings) filling the entire sidewalk out into the street, and they were pretty tightly packed. On top of which there was a lot of foot traffic on the street in general.

Given that, I think our recent spike in cases will continue for a while. :-/



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/19/2020 11:16AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Maryland has rural areas as well. I think having a statewide mask mandate puts everyone on the same page, and does cut down on the whining and non-compliance.

Having said that, we don't have to wear masks outdoors as long as we can socially distance, and I hear that urban areas are running into the same problems that you noted, where people are passing or standing in close proximity to one another. My family members drove through one downtown area on two separate occasions, and although they wanted to get out, they kept driving after what they saw.

I notice that Maryland's numbers have bumped up in the past week -- I think we are getting the same post-Labor Day surges that everyone else is getting.

Our governor and state schools superintendent are starting to urge schools to go back in a hybrid model in October or November, citing improving Covid numbers. Frankly, I don't see it, but I'm trying to mentally steel myself for a return.

"Much of the state is so rural and thinly populated, they really don't need a mask mandate."

Maybe that's a lot of county's, state's, and even the country's excuse.

It doesn't matter how thinly a population is living, but how thickly they are dying.

It spreads in the country too. Masks are worn around other people.

Maybe the country doesn't need a mask mandate because we're all so spread out.

Mask mandates save lives. This shouldn't have had to go on forever... and it will-

Those who have read Tara Westover's book 'Educated' will recall twice her father was speeding through a snowstorm saying that he couldn't drive faster than his guardian angel could fly. Twice he crashed the car with the family inside.
Maybe some of that guardian angel attitude at BYU.

Today's Utah numbers just came out: 1077. That makes it the second highest day on record, missing breaking the old record (set yesterday) by only 40. We keep this up four more days, we will be in the US top ten, and that's in raw cases, not cases per capita. That is punching way above our weight. Utah is a low population state.

Yesterday the whole continent/country of Australia had 48 new cases diagnosed. Just shows what a country that actually tries hard can do.

That's enough to make one wonder which of Utah's two mutually reinforcing religions is more dangerous.

I walked into Cafe Rio a week ago and it was packed and piles of young people standing in line, talk about health hazard, so I turned around and went to another restaurant that cost more but was empty. Well worth the price!

The trouble here in Utah is that most think this is just a little flu, I've got into fights on facebook over this. Friends telling me I've been duped, and fooled because I believe in the mask and that the schools should be closed. Provo is a hot spot with lots of people (Singles and young families) not believing that this is a real issue.

My fake book friends are even sending around a petition asking governor not to do anything. I'm surrounded by self centered mormons.

Maybe next General Conference Russell can talk about Utah's high covid rate. Lol I know he will not talk about it he will talk about the blessings of paying your tithing.

You stay safe

They might pay attention once the death count starts rising.

Cafe Rio is highly over rated.

Maybe they should try a worldwide fast or something.

Yeah, lol-FAST!

Are they wearing their magic underwear?

Or their magical overFACEwear?

I know it can get confusing, but in this case it is the antimaskers who are engaging in magical thinking.

Nice try, though.

Misplaced



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/24/2020 05:52PM by Brother Of Jerry.

Beehive Clothing could make out like bandits with “Authorized Design” masks.

Last week's two record high daily new case numbers for Utah got beat this week. The new record is 1,198.

Thursdays seem to be the worst days. Testing drops off on the weekends as people head for the outdoor recreation areas. Plus National Park entrances are free this Saturday. Friday will be quiet at test centers.



Recap of last week's numbers:
914 on 09/16 (all time record high)
1112 0n 09/17 (all time record high, beating record from day before)
1076 on 09/18 (did not beat previous day's record)


We're on a roll.

I'll race you to Thanksgiving Day with that 400,000 figure, especially now that Dear Leader has tweeted after suffering through this disease that "COVID is no big thing" and that everybody should live their lives as normal.

Can we make 400,000 Covid-19 deaths by Christmas Day?

I like the association of Covid-19 and Christmas, cuz, you know, Covid-19 is the gift that unmasked people give to all of us, regardless of race, creed or kind.

We are working on it.



Just saw a story today where a college football player just died of complications of covid-19. You know, that group of people that are supposedly unaffected. They have better odds, but not perfect odds of surviving.

My odds are about at about Russian Roulette level, so I choose not to play.

I put saran-wrap on my keyboard when I'm online. I have trust issues...

Yes, I know of another (former pro) football player who got slammed hard by Covid. He said it was like breathing through a straw.

What a nonsensical thing to do.

It seems like the responsible officials are trying to close their mind to a well-known fact.

Instead, they should realize that catching this virus does not prove the church is "not" true.

Dumb-de-Dumb-Dumb.

My prediction of a quiet day today have been rendered inoperative. :((

New record today (9/25) : 1,411.

That's a 16% jump over the old record, which was set yesterday.
We are still on a roll.

ghawd has a plan...

His plan appears to be to shut down BYU.

Not bad.

The trouble with exponential growth is that by the time it becomes obvious there is a problem, the problem is much bigger than it appears.

The numbers we are seeing now were completely baked in one to two weeks ago.

Disneyland has reduced itself to begging and the City of Anaheim is also begging, because they want the tax income from the park's operation, along with all the 'room tax' income from the hotels, which they hope will fill up.

Everyone with a financial stake in out-of-towners visiting Disneyland are making themselves believe, and preach, that good intentions will keep Covid-19 under control.

If you think good thoughts, good things will happen! Facts won't matter if there are enough good intentions.

And I get it! When you have needs, your thought process has to alter as you attempt to meet those needs.


In the famous words of George Armstrong Custer, "What, me worry?"

elderolddog Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

>
> In the famous words of George Armstrong Custer,
> "What, me worry?"

I thought George's famous words were, "Look at all those f**king Indians!"

My alma mater is also not doing well. The young people can't resist the urge to socialize. The health officer in my university town has mandated contact tracing, and found 30+ houses that have spread the disease so badly that he has confined the kids to quarters. I imagine that includes some Greek houses. I don't know why anyone ever thought that bringing students back to campus was a good idea.

In mid September when this thread started, the 7 day moving average for daily new covid cases had been around 400.

As of today, the 7 day moving average is over 1,000.

Way to go, BYU. Utah County is still the pace setter.

I wonder if UVU feels left out?

I've wondered about what part UVU plays. A lot more of its students are local and live at home, which I would expect to lower infection rates. Since the two schools are only a few miles apart, I wonder if they are just being lumped together as an infection source. If I see anything about that, I will return and report.

From 3 weeks ago:

https://www.sltrib.com/news/2020/09/15/utah-reports-new-covid/

"BYU, which has become the focus for contributing to the sharp rise in cases, initially said it would only be providing weekly updates on its total infections on campus. But, after pushback from concerned students, it changed course Tuesday.It is now reporting 560 total since the beginning of fall semester. That’s up from 302 from the last update on Friday, when the school had 258 cases."


"That’s a massive jump on the campus of 43,000 faculty and students. And it is the most infected university in Utah, with the fastest spread.

By comparison, the University of Utah has had 241 cumulative cases since Aug. 15 on its campus of 62,000 people in Salt Lake City. And nearby Utah Valley University had 198 total cases with about 23,000 on campus."
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Current numbers:

UVU - 311 cases since 8/24
UU - 558 since 8/24
USU - 527 since 8/31
BYU - 1,547 for "fall semester"

https://www.byu.edu/coronavirus/covid-19-screening
https://www.usu.edu/covid-19/
https://coronavirus.utah.edu/
https://www.uvu.edu/returntocampus/

Thx. So BYU really is in first place by a hefty margin. And without the aid of alcohol or fraternities. Impressive. Not in a good way.

There was a fight on an airline between someone wearing a mask and someone wearing a face shield a few days ago. The plane was headed to Provo (I call it Prove [the o on the end got dented in]). No wonder

The Utah covid website reports case numbers two days late, so Tuesday and Wednesday tend to be low, reflecting lower testing over the weekend. Thursday seems to be the big day every week.

So it was today.

1,501 cases, setting a new record high.

Utah has been setting records for covid cases on a regular basis lately.

Another Thursday, another record: daily new cases in Utah: 1613.

As a reminder, the goal in August was to keep cases below 400 per day.

That ship has sailed.

Yes, but we are rounding the corner!

Oh, we've done better than just rounding the corner. We've gone full circle, and then some.

:-/

Yeah, it was probably the wrong corner!

But hey, it's still the greatest economy the world has ever seen. Right?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/22/2020 06:40PM by Lot's Wife.

I'm sure they all mean well !!!