Religion, racism, and exclusion are so important to some people that they are willing to destroy our nation for it.


https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/11/iowa-right-wing-republicans

In a state where legislators can boast of membership in the Oath Keepers, the fringe has become mainstream

A peregrine falcon swoops over grazing cows. A giant Stars and Stripes is painted on wood with “Bundy for governor” and “No trespassing” attached. Up a gravel drive, past an upturned wheelbarrow, is a red, white and blue Bundy campaign bus and a sign that declares: “Keep Idaho Idaho.”

Ammon Bundy’s compound is situated under rolling green hills and a broad Idaho sky. From his five-bedroom farmhouse, the far-right activist gazes out at his 240 apple trees along with cherry, peach and pear trees. He points to the homes of two neighbors, both military men – and both flying the American flag upside down.

“It’s a sign of distress,” Bundy says. “I’m not influencing them in any way but, if there is going to be some type of civil war, I think it will be the military fracturing. I hope not. I believe more in a separation, if it was needed.”

The bearded 46-year-old, notorious for armed standoffs with law enforcement that landed him in prison, has no chance of becoming governor of Idaho. But the mere fact that, during a year in solitary confinement, he wrote in his journal about a plan to run for elected office is indicative of a change in the political wind here.

Idaho has long been one of the most conservative states in America with its fair share of extremism. Now, critics warn, the extremists are being normalised. Once dismissed as backwoods fanatics, the far right have entered the political arena and identified a path to power.



https://newrepublic.com/article/165959/global-age-civil-war

People keep asking me if the United States could experience a second civil war. A few years ago, I would have said no. I have spent decades researching how and why civil wars start, and, until as late as 2016, the United States had none of the underlying conditions known to lead to war. I didn’t think American citizens would fight another war. But that has changed. Over the last six years, all of the warning signs for civil war have emerged in the United States, and they have emerged at a surprisingly fast rate.

We know the warning signs that a country is heading to civil war. The same patterns emerge whether you look at Bosnia, Ukraine, Iraq, Syria, Northern Ireland, Israel, or the United States in the 1860s. Between 2017 and 2021, I served on the U.S. government’s Political Instability Task Force, a group comprising conflict scholars and data analysts. One of the jobs of the task force was to come up with a model that helped to predict which countries around the world were likely to experience political instability and violence. The model had included every variable we thought could increase a country’s risk of civil war: variables such as poverty, income inequality, ethnic diversity, the geographic and population size of a country. To the task force’s great surprise, only two factors came up highly predictive. The first was whether a country’s government was an anocracy. Anocracies are governments that are neither fully democratic nor fully autocratic; they are something in between. You can think of them as partial democracies, illiberal democracies, or hybrid regimes. It is in anocracies that most civil wars occur.

The second condition is ethnic factionalization. The anocracies that tend to go to war are the ones where citizens have organized themselves politically around identity rather than ideological positions. Their political parties are based on the ethnic, religious, or racial identity of their members, and they seek to rule at the exclusion and expense of others. Ethno-nationalism during times of partial democracy is a combustive mix.

We also know who tends to start civil wars, especially ethnic civil wars. It’s not the weakest, poorest, or the most subjugated groups in a country. Instead, it’s the groups that were once politically dominant in a territory but have lost dominance or are in the process of losing it. Serbs started the war in the former Yugoslavia. They had dominated both government and military positions for decades during the Cold War and stood to lose the most power when the country began to democratize. Iraq’s Sunnis had held most of the key positions in Sad­dam Hussein’s government and military for decades before being forced out of power by the United States. They, too, started a civil war. Citizens of eastern Ukraine had a pro-Russia native son in power as president until 2014. Once President Viktor Yanukovych fled, so too did their favored position, and demands for secession soon followed. Want to know where civil war is most likely to break out? It’s in a partial-democracy, riddled with identity politics, where the once politically dominant group is in decline.

Ammon Bundy is living in his own private Idaho

She said the quiet part out loud:

Idaho Lt. Gov. Janice McGeachin is not subtle about what she envisions for the state if she becomes governor: "God calls us to pick up the sword and fight, and Christ will reign in the state of Idaho."

This is christofascism, folks.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/11/2022 08:51AM by anybody.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/may/11/second-american-civil-war-robert-reich

The second American civil war is already occurring, but it is less of a war than a kind of benign separation analogous to unhappily married people who don’t want to go through the trauma of a formal divorce.

One America is largely urban, racially and ethnically diverse, and young. The other is largely rural or exurban, white and older.

The split is accelerating. Red zip codes are getting redder and blue zip codes, bluer. Of the nation’s total 3,143 counties, the number of super landslide counties – where a presidential candidate won at least 80% of the vote – jumped from 6% in 2004 to 22% in 2020.

Surveys show Americans find it increasingly important to live around people who share their political values. Animosity toward those in the opposing party is higher than at any time in living memory. Forty-two per cent of registered voters believe Americans in the other party are “downright evil”.

Almost 40% would be upset at the prospect of their child marrying someone from the opposite party. Even before the 2020 election, when asked if violence would be justified if the other party won the election, 18.3% of Democrats and 13.8% of Republicans responded in the affirmative.

Increasingly, each America is running under different laws.

Red states are making it nearly impossible to get abortions but easier than ever to buy guns.

They’re also suppressing votes. (In Florida and Texas, teams of “election police” have been created to crack down on the rare crime of voter fraud, another fallout from Trump’s big lie.)

They’re banning the teaching of America’s history of racism. They’re requiring transgender students to use bathrooms and join sports teams that reflect their gender at birth.

They’re making it harder to protest; more difficult to qualify for unemployment benefits or other forms of public assistance; and almost impossible to form labor unions.

And they’re passing “bounty” laws – enforced not by governments, which can be sued in federal court, but by rewards to private citizens for filing lawsuits – on issues ranging from classroom speech to abortions to vaccinations.

Blue states are moving in the opposite direction. Several, including Colorado and Vermont, are codifying a right to abortion. Some are helping cover abortion expenses for out-of-staters.

When Idaho proposed a ban on abortions that empowers relatives to sue anyone who helps terminate a pregnancy after six weeks, nearby Oregon approved $15m to help cover the abortion expenses of patients from other states.

Maryland and Washington have expanded access and legal protections to out-of-state abortion patients. One package of pending California bills would expand access to California abortions and protect abortion providers from out-of-state legal action.

After the governor of Texas ordered state agencies to investigate parents for child abuse if they provide certain medical treatments to their transgender children, California lawmakers proposed making the state a refuge for transgender youths and their families.

Another California proposal would thwart enforcement of out-of-state court judgments removing children from the custody of parents who get them gender-affirming health services.

California is also about to enforce a ban on ghost guns and assault weapons with a California version of Texas’ recent six-week ban on abortion, featuring $10,000 bounties to encourage lawsuits from private citizens against anyone who sells, distributes or manufactures those types of firearms.

Blue states are also coordinating more of their policies. During the pandemic, blue states joined together on policies that red states rejected – such as purchasing agreements for personal protective equipment, strategies for reopening businesses as Covid subsided, even on travel from other states with high levels of Covid.

At one point, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut required travelers from states with high positivity rates – Arkansas, Florida, North and South Carolina, Texas and Utah – to quarantine for two weeks before entering.

But what will happen to the poor in red states, who are disproportionately people of color?

“States rights” was always a cover for segregation and harsh discrimination. The poor – both white and people of color – are already especially burdened by anti-abortion legislation because they can’t afford travel to a blue state to get an abortion.

They’re also hurt by the failure of red states to expand Medicaid eligibility under the Affordable Care Act; by red state de facto segregation in public schools; and by red state measures to suppress votes.

One answer is for Democratic administrations and congresses in Washington to prioritize the needs of the red state poor and make extra efforts to protect the civil and political rights of people of color in red states. The failure of the Senate to muster enough votes to pass the Freedom to Vote Act, let alone revive the Voting Rights Act, suggests how difficult this will be.

Blue states have a potential role here. They should spend additional resources on the needs of red state residents, such as Oregon is now doing for people from outside Oregon who seek abortions.

They should prohibit state funds from being spent in any state that bans abortions or discriminates on the basis of race, ethnicity, or gender. California already bars anyone on a state payroll (including yours truly, who teaches at UC Berkeley) from getting reimbursed for travel to states that discriminate against LGBTQ+ people.

Where will all this end? Not with two separate nations. What America is going through is analogous to Brexit – a lumbering, mutual decision to go separate ways on most things but remain connected on a few big things (such as national defense, monetary policy and civil and political rights).

America will still be America. But it is fast becoming two versions of America. The open question is like the one faced by every couple that separates: how will the two find ways to be civil toward each other?

And the blue states will keep shoveling money into the red because they can't/won't support themselves.

As a blue state resident, I think that needs to be on the table. If you want to restrict women's rights, perhaps it's time to stop feeding quite so heavily at the Federal trough.

The caveat is that I would not want that to disproportionally hurt people of color.

https://www.motherjones.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/blog_federal_aid_share_state_budget.gif

Republican communities truly give new meaning to the term "welfare state."

As a resident of Idaho I have few fears that people like McGeachin will be in power any time soon. One thing we all have to fesr is over reaction, something that infects blues and reds.

As expected McGeaachin goes down to defeat in the primary.

She went down hard. Look at the Idaho voting map. The right wing extremists get the north Idaho votes but the southern part of the state reject them.

Boise is where the population is and it’s moderate.

Doesn't whomever comes in second in the vote tally on election day automatically become the Lt. Governor? Isn't how she got that job?

PS. I am surprised The Guardian does not appear to know that Idaho and Iowa are different states. The link says Iowa, the article is about Idaho.

I noticed that too when I saw Iowa in the link.

I am voting in the primary tomorrow. For may of the offices, it has been difficult to determine which are conventional Republicans and which are the extreme ones. In my district there are a couple of scary ones running unopposed.

Often the talking point the candidates use against each other is that they were more loyal to Trump. Bundy might not get anywhere, but overall I expect Idaho to become a little more extreme.

Funny but I have been able to get a lot of good info on candidates from their FB. Check the comments, interesting things to be found. And check the spouse.

Thanks, Sus. Good idea, but I don't do Facebook.

I found some good journalist articles and dug into who was funding and endorsing who. I finally found info on most of them, and it was not pretty.

The thing with articles is that they are more like a snapshot. With FB you can really DIG and find other avenues to look at. Last time we were voting for Mayor the opponent had only lived here less than two years. I can live with that. Was an "advocate". OK, maybe. Spent time "picking up trash". Loved that, you know how I despise litter. Checked her husband's bran new shiny clean FB. I can see doing that. BUT when I looked at comments from friends and looked at their FB it was militia this, militia that. A private FB group that she was a member of but what was public was "rousting" homeless/cleaning up our streets. Dug a little more and the "picking up trash" she was really doing (she was cited for it) was driving up to homeless people, forcibly taking their stuff and putting it in a truck and taking it to the dump.

I kept an eye out and they sold their house 6ish weeks after she lost. They left all their furniture and it was obviously set up for groups/meetings not a home. They left everything. Towels, bedding, kitchen knives on the counter. Expensive digital cutter/writer and a mid range sewing machine. It looked like they moved in with their clothes and out with their clothes.

FB should be for wombats, bees and crafting but once in a while it comes in very useful :)

Susan I/S Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> I kept an eye out and they sold their house 6ish
> weeks after she lost. They left all their
> furniture and it was obviously set up for
> groups/meetings not a home. They left everything.
> Towels, bedding, kitchen knives on the counter.
> Expensive digital cutter/writer and a mid range
> sewing machine. It looked like they moved in with
> their clothes and out with their clothes.
>

This is like something that you would see in a spy movie or "The Americans."

I'd be able to sleep at night.

But there is.

And there are people in America who want it to happen — and they want it *now.*

Idaho, the state where they tax food, slash funding for minority groups such as the deaf, hike gasoline taxes, then tell you how wonderful they are because they have a surplus but don't change any of those things.

Exactly! The governor is so excited to tell everyone he is going to refund some taxes, but we paid taxes to make the place better. I think Idaho now has the lowest amount spent per student in the nation now. There are so many things needed in so many areas. The sad thing is the current governor is probably the best one running.

There is a national teacher shortage, so good luck to Idaho with that. And contrary to popular opinion, you can't just stick any warm body into a classroom. Teachers must go through regular certification channels, or be accepted into an alternate certification program (often with stiff requirements.)

Next week is election filing week here, my name will be on that list…

I've got to admit anybody, you've found a great place to throw your politics out there.

but right here in the good old USA.

Having been in war zones and lived in real dangerous places you people crack me up. I will be on high alert when I'm in Idaho.

You're also a straight white conservative male (I presume) and would therefore have nothing to worry about in any event.

Now, if you were none of those things, you probably wouldn't be quite so cavalier about it – or at least you shouldn't be.

What happens when they have a miscarriage and accused of murder?

What happens when they will face death if forced to give birth?

What happens when they are raped?

I want no part of a civil war.

I am headed for Snowville.

I have bad news for you. I stumbled across a land development west of Snowville that was designed for survivalists. It was a large, flat valley, and the real estate ad at the entrance advertised “defensible sight lines”.

I was lost, and my phone map app didn’t work because there was no cell service out in the middle of the west desert. But there was no bleeping way I was going to drive up to one of those widely separated motorhomes with defensible sight lines and ask directions. I did finally make it back to Snowville. I believe I was east of Park Valley when lost.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/12/2022 12:12AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Will Boundy help Lori Vallow Daybill escape?

Is there a Sumpter Idaho?

https://www.weknowboise.com/sumpter-cove.php

There is a Sumpter, Oregon.

Is that meant to be an argument in favor of the Red states?

If want to think about a civil war, look no farther than Afghanistan. When anarchy reins there is always a revolution within the revolution, everybody wants the power. When a crazy group gets power, they don't like to give it up.

Given the organizational incompetence of the well-armed "patriots" who invaded the Capitol on January 6, 2021, I would think the answer to your question is obvious.

If idaho is so bad how come so many people from blue States are moving there?

Because it is cheap. That is starting to change though. More people are crossing it off their retirement lists. People can live with snow, they can't live with crazy.

tumwater Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> If idaho is so bad how come so many people from
> blue States are moving there?

I moved there after 40+ years of running a business in over regulated blue CA, I opted to retire early and go somewhere that was more aligned with my values after Newsom's overreaching shutdowns. I don't regret my decision one bit, I enjoy the freedom that Idaho offers. I am not, nor have I ever been, LDS.

But they don’t allow recreational weed!

So in addition to driving West for some herbal relaxation, looks like Idahoans might soon be coming to Spokane, Pullman, Walla Walla for abortions too (Washington was the First State to allow abortions…)

Idaho has a much lower minimum wage which makes it difficult for Idaho businesses to hire those folks near the border; one enterprising retailer has checkstands in both Idaho (lower sales tax %) and In Washington (No sales tax on food)…

Very few people in Idaho earn minimum wage these day. $13 to $15 are the signs I see on ads at fast food places.

Dicks in Seattle has a sign up for $20/hr, with full benefits, including tuition, $28,000 scholarship, 401K contribution match, medical/dental/vision, childcare assistance, family leave… the list goes on.

https://www.ddir.com/employment/

I remember being a university student doing an internship on Capitol Hill, seeing those signs at Dicks advertising making more than I was making at the time in a professional career and being pretty disillusioned.

I could have made more flipping burgers, and instead of student loans, they would have paid for my tuition.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/12/2022 03:29PM by schrodingerscat.

kentish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Very few people in Idaho earn minimum wage these
> day. $13 to $15 are the signs I see on ads at
> fast food places.

Especially near the Washington border.

Washington politics are (is ?) driven by heavily populated western Washington, there’s no comparison in Idaho…..

Do the voters in / near Boise vote (more) Democratic kinda like they do in SLCity?

I occasionally wonder if Boundy is a naturist - nudist which is, at least to me - a very high expression of freedom.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/2022 02:13PM by GNPE.

Ha! Ha! More fantasies from Anybody. Look at the Idaho Republican primaries. All the far right candidates lost.

I don’t think you realize what a civil war is. It’s when the military splits into factions and goes to war against itself.

Idaho isn’t that important of a state. It’s impact on the United States as a whole is very small.

If you enjoy beer they grow some of the best barley in the world in Idaho. Idaho is important to beer drinkers and people who like French fries and big baker potatoes.

Sugar beets too

I saw an interview with Bundy, who is actually Pro BLM, and Anti MAGA, so just the opposite of what I assumed.

He is pro or anti depending on what will get him a little attention. Any attention. He is really a pathetic little man.