https://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/2022/06/australia-2021-census-data-released.html

"Today, the Australian government released a breakdown of the religious affiliation of the Australian population per the 2021 census data. A total of 57,868 people self-identified as Latter-day Saints on the 2021 census constituting approximately 0.23% of the Australian population. The Church reported a total of 155,383 members in Australia as of year-end 2021. Thus, only 37.2% of Church-reported membership self-affiliated on the 2021 census."

- This represents an ~3000 decrease in last 5 years.

- 29% of self-identified members are Pacific Islanders


Looking at the stakes created this year reveals that

- 9 created in africa

- 7 created in Utah + Idaho

- 2 created elsewhere in US (with 3 discontinued in US)

It is clear where growth is comnhg from

The church continually makes itself look foolish by counting people as members who don't attend or believe or care enough to formally resign.

My rule of thumb about number of Mormons is take the LDS claimed membership number, and divide by three. That is a rough estimate, but it is close enough for most purposes, and way better than the fantasy numbers LDS Inc uses.

Looks like the Aussie census reconfirmed that rule.


The Canadian 2021 census figures on religious affiliation are scheduled for Oct 26 of this year.


As for all the vaunted growth in Africa, why is it I never hear anything about it other than there are lots of baptisms?

I don't recall ever hearing here on RFM from a missionary who served in Africa, nor has anyone here (that I have noticed) reported on what the Mormon experience is like in Africa.

I also don't recall any first person accounts of experiences with the church in Africa in the SL Tribal (damn autocorrect, but tribal is not a bad substitute!) or by Jana Reiss in Religion News Service.

The one and only thing I ever hear is that lots of stakes are being created.

Well whoop-dee-do. If there are dozens of stakes where the vast majority of the membership are recent converts (last 20 years or less) it seems like it might be a challenge to keep all the cats herded and acting like Mormons (which is to say, like American Mormons, the only True™ Mormons(formerly ™ )). I heard nothing about that either pro or con.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/04/2022 12:47AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My rule of thumb about number of Mormons is take
> the LDS claimed membership number, and divide by
> three. That is a rough estimate, but it is close
> enough for most purposes, and way better than the
> fantasy numbers LDS Inc uses.


I disagree. It depends on the place. In the Morridor you may find 30% to 40% active members, but the further away you get from the English-speaking world, the lower the percentage becomes.

Those 37% of members who still call themselves members on the census probably include a lot of people who don't go to church but were reported LDS on the census by the head of the family who does still go to church. In non-English speaking countries the figures are still lower: I remember a branch in Portugal with 70 members known to be living there, and only 3 regularly visiting. A ward in Brazil with over 2,000 names on the rolls and 20-35 attending.

Others may have interesting statistics to share?

I basically agree with you, though I would jack the percentages up a bit, though covid may have lowered them to the numbers you are citing.

I used to hear that in the Morridor (Idaho Falls, ID to Tempe, AZ more or less) the activity rate was in the 40 to 50 percent range, in the US mission field, 30 to 40 percent, and internationally, 15 to 30 percent.

Maybe my estimates are high, but they are way closer to reality that the Church's figure. When I see there are 300 stakes in Brazil (there was 1 when I was there), somebody got baptized and is still active. Stakes can't exist without people.

Besides, dividing by three is something I can do in my head. dividing by four would also be easy, and maybe I will update my rule of thumb to that some day. ;)

Well, I suppose they could organize proxy stakes for the dead.

I don't know who produced this, or their methodology, but they have estimates of activity rates by country (and some US states) for a 20 year period (unfortunately ending in 2019 so effect of covid not determinable)

https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=7206285C99C2C561!9304&ithint=file%2cxlsx&authkey=!AG5FQtRwVAda040

Based on their estimates it is about 40% in the US, 55% in Utah, 49% in Idaho, worldwide 27%, Canada 32%, UK 19.7%, Mexico 15%.

A few places in Africa and Tahiti are ~40%, most of Latin America and Asia is <20%, much of Europe is 20-30%