Posted by:
angsty
(
)
Date: August 25, 2011 11:32AM
http://www.fairblog.org/2008/09/12/temple-mariage-and-civil-divorce/If this FAIR analysis is accurate, there are some problems with the study:
Basically, using church records they gathered a "random" sample of adults who were married in the temple. They had an 81% response rate. That means that for 19% of the sample they started with, we have no idea whether they are still married to the same partner, or divorced, and we're not entitled to make any assumptions.
Also, 15% of the 81% weren't self-reported. Those numbers came from cooperating bishops who were working from what they knew with the aid of church records. From my visiting teaching experience, and the long list of sisters I contacted over the years, I can safely say that church records aren't the most reliable.
So we have no data at all for 19% of the original sample and guesstimation for 15% of the sample.
Assuming everything else is on the up and up, instead of having a picture of how temple marriages fare divorce-wise, overall, we have a picture of how 66% of a sample of Mormons self-reported, plus 15% of what bishops gathered from church records.
So, really, assuming the sample was indeed random and sufficiently large, what we get is that there's a 6% divorce rate among the 81% of Mormons who responded to the study (included information provided by bishops). If people left the church, went inactive and divorced, even if it was a temple marriage to begin with, those cases were automatically excluded from the data set by their nature.
This means we have a problem with self-selection bias.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/25/2011 11:33AM by angsty.