A TBM friend of mine was telling me that a TBM co-worker couldn't understand what was going on,
their ward was only half as full as it was a couple years ago.
She asked my friend if they were experiencing a similar decline.
My friend replied that although they hadn't loss that much of their ward,
it had certainly experienced some considerable "member shrinkage"
(OK, I know how that sounds) during the last couple of years.

I think there is an obvious decline in membership, especially outside of Utah.

I wish someone had the resources or ability to go from ward to ward and ask the members what's going on in the ward as far as attendance. The church itself has had a few leaks about the topic, but aren't about to come clean about how bad it really is.

I know for a fact that a lot of people left the ward I was in. I think more are leaving every week. They're burnt out, fed up, and then to to it off they find out the whole thing is a scam.

I think the internet is giving people loads of information that wasn't easily accessed before. Also they're observing that people are leaving. There has to be whispering and gossip. Its the mormon way. It's human nature for people to want to find out just what it is that's so damaging on the internet that even the leaders are leaving.

RFM just needs to keep talking about the problems and putting the information out there. Even if its seems like old hat to us. To a person looking for the first time it's shocking new revelation.

Those members should stay out of the Pool! ;o)

Wine Country Girl

http://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=http://www.freedomsphoenix.com/Uploads/Graphics/171/11/171-1119100922-Shrinkage-George-Costanza-poster1.jpg&imgrefurl=http://www.tetongravity.com/forums/showthread.php/262009-merino-wool-shrinkage&h=465&w=580&sz=30&tbnid=Hr6C0s-UjvjcAM:&tbnh=95&tbnw=119&zoom=1&usg=__E2nw2BiyH3cM4XPLzo89PXW1PxU=&docid=Q-WRqHLM3zh-uM&sa=X&ei=YC8BUsHyAs-GyQGG7IGIDw&sqi=2&ved=0CDYQ9QEwAw&dur=575

:oD

All men should try cold-water diving in a tight wetsuit. That'll humble you. An hour later you're hoping it's not permanent.

//wrong space for this one//



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/2013 04:41PM by cludgie.

What is the instrument of measure for data accumulation when determining this phenomena of "Member Shrinkage"

I don't need to know, but a friend of mine asked me to ask...it's not for me.

I don't even care.

Yes it is a worldwide problem and it is on the internet.

Take a look at the two items on the blog I put together; it will give you one perspective of what is happening:


http://stopsoon.blogspot.com/

You are right that about 500 members are assigned to a ward, but the ward houses were built to accommodate approximately 200 members in the pews.

http://www.lds.org/ensign/1981/11/news-of-the-church/a-new-generation-of-meetinghouses?lang=eng

See the description of the "Sage" ward house. As the number of members assigned goes up, it's an indication that the participation rate is going down. 170-190 is often used for more typical value for "active members" per ward.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/2013 02:09PM by crom.

All I know is that I haven't seen a single convert baptism in many years. In fact, I think I've seen 3 or 4 in 20 years of membership. Even on my mission in south america, I don't believe we had more than a couple dozen converts each year that stayed active for very long. That's for the entire mission. In fact, we had a large list of baptized members that had never been confirmed...they never came back to church. I doubt that some of them were even baptized in the first place...thousands of baptismal records were falsified in the 80's and 90's.

The ward I grew up in is pathetic. They split the ward leaving the ward with ~80 active members, a dozen or so primary kids and a handful of youth. I would bet that nearly 100% of the kids raised in that ward will find their way out over time.

I read somewhere that ~2% of adult members outside the U.S. have been sealed in the temple. What does that tell you?

I don't know if this has been happening all along or if this is really accelerating. I remember being told decades ago that 2/3 of returned missionaries go inactive at some point.

Our ward was dissolved when I was in law school. The stake pretty much encompassed the entire mid section of the state because there were so few members. It was in the mission field so I wasn't surprised.

What was surprising to me was a ward dissolving in our stake here in Mor Cor and the stake having to be completely redrawn. Also an entirstake in Mesa (where the temple is) also was dissolved. That was shocking.

TBMs will try and rationalize it away (the most frequent excuse I'm hearing is that the members are all moving to Gilbert and Queen Creek) but I think it's pretty clear what's going on.

Admittedly I'm not in much of a position to observe, but I wouldn't believe that there's a significant migration to Gilbert going on.

There definitely is - but only to the new parts of gilbert. I've got relatives in the older section (old = 20yr old houses) and their ward is shrinking. But queen creek is packed full of young mormon families. They have to move way out there to find houses cheap enough to accomodate their families.

Yep. It's easy to show big time growth in an area that was empty. Any growth is big growth. The commute from Queen Creek, jeez.

TWO stakes in Mesa were dissolved. Mesa Arizona Pueblo in 2011 and Mesa West in 2012. However two stakes were created in Gilbert (Gilbert Williams Field 2013 and Gilbert Highland 2012). Looks like same population different location.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/2013 02:28PM by crom.

If people are burnt out and leaving, you’d think that the brethren would have a revelation and hire janitors. Before I left, our building was ratty and stinky. We had very little budget for anything. Inspiration would tell them it might be time to invest in their members.

My ward is shrinking like a scared turtle.

See discussion here from about a week ago--

http://exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,974568,974568#msg-974568

I even made the "shrinkage" and George Castanza references!

I think the reality and the perception of "member shrinkage" has to do with where you are living.

The internet and DNA are doing them in.

Add to that unreasonable demands of OBEDIENCE, demands for free work and money, a weird sexual obsession on masturbation, hatred of gays, weird underwear, and you have a recipe for failure.

I'm the ward clerk in my ward and our attendance is down 20-30% over the last year alone.

My thought is it doesn't take much to get shrinkage. Even in the "Mecca of Mormonism" ---- a few key families support most of the callings, work effort, leadership (the 80/20 rule --- 80% of work/leadership comes from 20% of the membership). Once one of the 20% that do 80% of the work leave ---- the impact is felt! Also, others in the 20% get disillusioned given the additional work they will have to do as the church is saying MORE, MORE, and the key members are either dropping out based on finding the Truth or just waking up and seeing they are having to do too much of the work others won't do!
TRUTH WILL PREVAIL!!

It is difficult for me to see much in the way of member shrinkage in the Houston area. TSCC is growing here because the population in general is growing. My former ward has even managed to have a handful of convert baptisms. Maybe TSCC is not growing as quickly as the rest of the population.

It gives the illusion of growth but there is seldom a convert baptism.

I think some reasonable numbers could be gleaned from the information we now know.

OF course a mole leaking documents from the COB would be much easier, but I think if we have someone good with statistics we could get some rudimentary numbers.

If we had the numbers from the increase of visitors to this site, particularly if they were divided between US and non US, I think some numbers could be crunched.

They would not be scientifically accurate, however, would certainly be an indication. I am guessing there is an upward sloping curve of viewership here that would be directly proportional to the decline in membership.

Also, one should keep in mind that most people would simply vote with their feet rather than go through the insanity of having to resign. They simply stop playing along.

I would think that someone good with statistics could get some rough numbers.

The dicks in charge of the church have certainly become smaller. Not in physical height but as inspiring, dynamic men worth following. Such tiny men. And limp, too.

Edit: this was supposed to be in reply to the OP

No. I don't think its quite church-wide, yet. I'm pretty sure it depends where you look.

I know, from personal experience, my old stake back in upstate NY has lost two branches and gained one over the past 10 years or so. Also, in my mission in the UK, two units were dissolved just in the two years I was there!

On the other hand, they seem to be throwing up new wards as quickly as they can build them in many 3rd world countries.

I'd say the Morg is rapidly declining in Europe. Its about static in the US, probably near the tipping point where it'll start to fall. Its still growing in Latin America and Africa, although the rate of growth seems to have slowed dramatically in many parts of Latin America.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/06/2013 03:06PM by nickname.

I keep hearing about all this decline in membership and I'm just not seeing it anywhere! I live in a part of Utah that is rapidly growing & see more and more chapels being built. In a 3 mile radius I'd say there are at least 7 brand new buildings.

When we were still attending a year ago the chapel was packed! Like all the way to the back of the gym packed. And I have friend who live a block away but goes to a completely different building who say the same about their wards. And most of these people are middle to upper class paying a generous tithe.

Maybe it's happening out of state much more than here. It's just depressing, I wish we were seeing more of a decline where we live. It's all very discouraging and makes me want to move even though I love where I live.

Just because they are building chapels does not mean the church is growing. If people are moving to your area for jobs, and leaving other areas, they are just displacing membership. Real growth comes from only two sources: births and converts. If a child grows up to be an active church member, that is a +1 for them. If a non-Mormon becomes an active Mormon, that is another +1.

If an active Mormon moves from Denver to Phoenix, that is not growth at all. Phoenix may build more chapels to accommodate such growth, but Denver would have empty seats to fill.

I drive by our ward house frequently. Most of the time the parking lot is empty. Sunday are only half full and there are two buildings and wards on the property. My church lots are full and Calvary needs parking attendants in orange vests to direct the traffic.

Ward membership is going down in CA at least in San Diego area.

Old generation is dying off. New generation has i-phones and google.

Again, it's a matter of perspective. It really is the Amazing Shrinking Church, but DW now attends a mostly military ward in GA, with a large attendance and over-flowing parking lot. It's easy to look at it and claim success. But then go out to central GA somewhere and see what you get.

I have some friends who were TBM through and through. He's been a bishop twice, she's been president of every thing they will allow her to be president of. They have 6 adult children who are married. There are 9 grand children in the mix.

Yesterday they told us that the last of their children(spouses and grandchildren also) has left the church. They then had some vodka and lemonade with us and announced that they are also leaving. These are the die hards in the ward. One of those families that keeps a ward up and running. It's going to be a huge hit to their already struggling ward. Oh yeah, they are also the top tithe payers in their ward.

These are the kind of people that are leaving. That is what's going to do the most damage. The people whose families have been mormon for generations. The ones who are the leaders and the inspiration that keeps a ward viable. When people like this leave the church feels it. The ripple effect is going to be huge. There will be a lot of people who will be looking into why this family left. They aren't the quiet types.

I think it annoys the church when converts don't stay, but when families like this leave it shakes the church. It's these kinds that are causing the big 15 to panic.