I'm so excited! It looks like the Cumorah website has been updated thru 2012 for LDS growth stats.

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=countries

I haven't looked at the website for a while because it had only been updated thru 2008-09 I think.

What's great about this website is, besides providing the official membership numbers along with historical graphs showing the growth, it also does this with the congregations, or units(branches/wards/stakes/districts).

While the church's membership totals are pretty meaningless, (since we all know they are including everyone and their dog that's been on record regardless of their activity level), I believe the statistics regarding their congregational growth is a fairly accurate representation of their REAL growth.

As we all have predicted Europe and Asia are CLEARLY in decline. Most of the countries in these continents are either LOSING branches, wards and stakes or at best FLATLINING.

For example if you look at France,

http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=countries&cnt_res=2&wid=77&cmdfind=Search

They report an INCREASE in membership of 565 from 2011 to 2012 but they actually DECREASED in the total number of congregations in the same time period. The number of wards remained at 60 but the number of branches dropped by one from 49 to 48.

Things are even worse in Asia. South Korea lost EIGHT wards, dropping from 91 to 83 (with no change in # of branches at 45). Its even worse if you look back 10 to 15 years. South Korea apparently hit its peak in Mormon growth in 1999 when they had 105 wards and 70 branches. That's a 21% DECREASE in the number of wards and 35% DECREASE in the number of branches over the last 13 years. NOT LOOKING SO GOOD. Of course they report a 20% INCREASE in membership over that same amount of time from 71,166 to 85,628.

I was even surprised by "successful" baptizing Latin America. While they report a 3.5% increase in membership in Mexico from 1,273,199 to 1,317,700 the number of wards DECREASED from 1,543 to 1,535 and the number of branches DECREASED from 457 to 450.

Even the heavyweight of LDS international growth, Brazil, reported a decline in congregations! http://www.cumorah.com/index.php?target=countries&cnt_res=2&wid=30&cmdfind=Search

Looking at the historical graphs it looks like the year 2000, ironically, was the turning point in Mormon expansion. Europe, Asia and Latin America all show a sharp change in the growth rate of units after this year, either beginning a decline or a flat-lining.

I haven't looked at all the countries yet, but the only ones with an ACTUAL growth rate in congregations is Africa, however Africa is fairly new to the scene so growth is certainly expected (and you know its a $$$ loss). Give them a few years like Asia and South America and we'll probably see growth plateau there as well, especially once the Africans start getting access to the internet and learning about the racist history of the church.

The United States showed growth but only a very modest increase from 13,628 units to 13,742 units, or an annual growth rate of 0.8%, which is the same as the nation's overall population growth. Even Canada appears to be slipping.

As I always knew, the USA, or more specifically, the Mormon heartland of UTAH, is the only REAL source of growth at this point for Mormonism, and that is mostly from the born and bred.

Great stuff, Ex-CultMember.

I don't see any of the stats specific for Utah, unfortunately. Idaho unit growth rate has dropped significantly since the mid-2000's. California unit growth rate has ranged from -1.1% to .2% annually since 2005 - outright contraction. It seems like Utah would have to have astronomically high growth to support the national .8% rate of 2012.

The Utah Mormon baby factory is all that's retaining unit growth nationally, apparently.

Thanks.

Considering the ages of Mormon marriage and their birth rates I would think it would be at LEAST 0.8% for the USA. Utah and the southwest is the heart of Mormonism, so it makes sense that most of the REAL growth would be coming from there. The rest of the world, at this point, is only window dressing.

Last year someone on this board did a graph that followed ward growth since 1985. The graph climes dramatically to 1998 but then falls (crashes) even more dramatically and never really recovers.

The chart showed that 1998 was the same year that Google was introduced!

It would be nice if the person who did that graph could up-date the material to include 2013 info!

I couldn't find the chart you were talking about.. but seeing that intrigued me, so I made on in excel real fast.. and.. you are correct.

http://i.imgur.com/fnzo5JR.png

Note that 2 MAJOR things happened in 1998
1) Google went live
2) I returned home from my mission.. numbers tanked for the church after I came home.

Great data, really evident.

At this rate - being unable to even keep up with the earth population growth curve - converting the earth is a ways off (infinity?) and the dead-dunkers gainfully employed forever.

You came home!

:D

That pic should be shared every time the LDS claim the church is growing.

Empty seats on Sundays will do that.

Thanks for posting this interesting (translation: gleefully encouraging) data.

More specifically, lack of priesthood holders will cause the dissolution of units. Gotta have guys to run the show. That's why the unit growth/decline rates are the most telling. Go ahead and add a lot of members. It means nothing if they don't stick around.

Women and children don't count because they can hold the leadership positions.

Looking at Japan, where I went on my mission, the high point was 2000 and 2001, with 317 units. There have been 12 straight years of zero or negative growth in congregations.

Lots of countries are similar. The church isn't growing.

I think there are a lot of factors at play here, but I wonder if one of them is the fact that aligning yourself to an American church no longer looks as attractive as it used to.

How many people in Asia joined the church because of those cute American boys and girls? In Europe, the only converts they've gotten lately are non-European immigrants. I think that many are hoping that by aligning themselves with an American institution might make a strategic advantage to their situation. But many have found out that it's not at all helpful in any way. On the contrary!

In Africa, the American factor is probably still seen as a possible advantage. I doubt that will change as quickly as it did in Asia due to the vastly different economies. But the illusion that there is such an advantage is only that. They'll figure it out!

I know a lot of Africans were really excited to see America have its first black president. I wonder how much having Obama as president made Africans excited about America. When he's gone I wonder if our appeal with decrease.

Devoted Exmo Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think there are a lot of factors at play here,
> but I wonder if one of them is the fact that
> aligning yourself to an American church no longer
> looks as attractive as it used to.
>

I have contended for a long time now that that was a factor in the past, but it isn't so very much anymore.

After WW2, Europeans and Japanese looked to most everything American as something to be admired and copied, from Levis, to rock 'n roll music, to even welcoming American fast food chains.

I think a LOT of people joined TSCC for that reason.

Today? Not so much.

Why wouldn't the decrease in units be seen as an economic decision?

First, a ward or stake needs so many priesthood holders to lead the flock and head up the various auxiliaries. If there aren't enough bodies to provide leadership, a ward can't function as a ward, and a stake can't function as a stake. Secondly, the Corporation of the President is a growth-oriented business. They are in the business of bringing in more members, even if they are dead. No-one in this top-down oriented, more-members-driven organization would even think of eliminating a ward unless they absolutely had to.

Agreed. In my small bedroom-community town, our ward was split into two about 10 or 15 years ago. Neither has grown; in fact, they are probably smaller now that when they were split. Putting them back together would be great; the ward would certainly be more viable, people wouldn't be as overworked, there would be more people for the meetings/auxiliaries, etc.

But it will never happen unless that magic priesthood number falls too low. Bad precedent. Yet the people trudge on....

In other threads, posters have talked about two wards being combined into a "new" ward, with the leaders playing up the "creation" of a new ward, while neglecting to mention that the net "gain" of wards in the process is "-1," since the two "old" wards go away. Any chance that type of math is coming into play.

It very likely a combination of reasons. A common reason for splitting wards is a low acitivty rate, a lack of priesthood holders, or the geographical area being so large so splitting a ward means people don't have to travel so far. But there's other reasons too. In my time in the church we had LOADS of ward splitting and merges. One case was that our ward got too large for the building (some people were even having classes in the corridor and the kitchen by the end of it!). So they split the ward into two wards for a couple of years, and extended the chapel, then merged us back together. So in this case, we got split because our chapel was too small, then merged later when we got a bigger chapel, even thought the attendance had stayed roughly the same during that time.

most Mormon wards can only handle about 300 active members. More than that, there's simply not enough room for all the people. I've been in crowded wards where they were about to exceed the capacity of the building...ie all rooms used, kitchen, stage, basketball court, chapel...no room left. The halls are narrow.
And, with lay bishops and otherwise all lay leadership, there's a natural limit on what they can do part-time. A ward can't expand its leadership, which is prescribed by church doctrine.
So, when a ward gets to about the 300-active-member mark, it has to split. They'll split for geographic reasons too.
But, it's kinda a truism in Mormonism that a ward is rarely bigger than 300 active members. Usually 150-200. Yet, most wards have 500+ members on their rolls, which by both inference and wide observation is 50%+ inactive.
Take Chile for example, which I think recently had the highest member-per-ward figure of over 900. Yes, one might argue that, maybe to save money, the church just has bigger wards there, to build fewer buildings. But it isn't so. All anecdotes "from the field" are that attendance in Chile is maybe 100 per ward. No observed megawards of 900 people. The 900, in fact, is a sign of very low activity. Census independently confirms that most of the people counted by the church as members do not count themselves as members. In Chile something like 20%.
So we extrapolate this general phenomenon. Past 300, higher member-per-ward means lower activity, because we'd have expected the split at 300 active members.

No way in hell are there 100 members per ward in chile. MAYBE in Santiago. Maybe.

In Chile (antofa) where I served in the late 90's there were around 20 attending members per ward, max! And I served all over that mission. Almost in every town.

I had books so thick of inactive members and I would spend weeks making street maps of the wards and marking off where every member lived. My companions were ticked because I would spend so much time updating the records.

Almost all the inactives were child baptisms done in the 80's. I was in branches that had at least 500-900 inactives and only 10 people in sacrament. This was the NORM

The numbers per unit reflect activity. New Zealand now has an *average* unit size of 561. That shows most members are inactive and therefore not paying their indulgences -"tithing".

The last two wards I was in had a major problem. They didn't have men who were worthy enough to run the show.

One of them imported a bishop. The other one had a bishop that was 80. That was the best they could do. It was a mess.

I think the lack of worthy men are going to become a huge problem in the future. They should embrace, and be grateful that there are women willing to do the job of PH holders. I think they'll eventually give the women more power because there won't be any men who want the job.

Might member migration from California to Utah, as well as other States, even other Nations, impact Utah's growth stats to the higher side and lower outside area statistics?

Not enough P-hoods.
Not enough members to go to the temple.
Not enough MONEY.
Not enough MONEY.

Oh, yeah. The Big Boyz got their garmies in an twist. And their answer is.... Correlation? Janitors? More and younger mishies? They can't sell the product and many want refunds!

So sad. :-DDDDDDD

Maybe this is why TSCC is branching to other investments (such as luxury shopping centers) to provide "multiple income streams" as tithing money starts drying up.

One of my friends did a study on LDS membership growth (he is never-LDS but spends time actively fighting their lies) where he looks at growth rates and illiteracy rates and lack of internet access.

The only places that are really growing are countries where there are high illiteracy rates and no real internet.

In much of the rest of the world, language barriers are also an issue to people finding out the truth about TSSC since most of the info is in English and can be pretty complicated arguments. In response, I have a friend who has a translation project to convert sites like UTLM, Mormonthink and other 'anti' sites into foreign languages.

Another factor, which isn't shown, but would affect numbers/growth is identifying as LDS. In many countries those who identify or are active LDS is only about 25% of the actual numbers of members on the rolls.

Very interesting to see the decline from around 1998-2000.

We first got internet access at home in 1999 & I suspect many other people in the Western world also did around the same time. The internet is clearly the rolling stone gathering no moss that has long been prophesied!

Out in England Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Very interesting to see the decline from around
> 1998-2000.
>
> We first got internet access at home in 1999 & I
> suspect many other people in the Western world
> also did around the same time. The internet is
> clearly the rolling stone gathering no moss that
> has long been prophesied!

--------------------

Or the stone that will fill the earth even....getting my quotes mixed up there.