I wonder if the missionaries in the most recent stats include church-service missionaries. If so, lowering the entry age for missionaries really did not have an impact.
2014 total membership - 2013 total membership = increase in church membership = ~300,000
2013 convert baptisms + children of record baptism = ~398,000
So a little rough math suggests that ~98,00 people had their records removed in 2013. Assuming that ex'd members are still counted on the records but resigned members are not counted (but still on file, who knows?).
Keep in mind, the lost members file (which comprises 2/3 of the membership, give or take) retains members until 110 years of age.
So comparing the LDS population to the global death rate won't really work, as the global death rate will be something like 2x per capita of what the church will drop off its roles, if not more.
OK, So if you take 2012's total membership number: 14,782,473
Then add in new members of record and baptisms, you get:
+115,486 +282,945 __________ 15,180,904
Then subtract the 2013 membership of -15,082,028 ____________ 98,876 members lost.
Using Rockwell Americana's assumed death rate of 8.3 deaths/1000 people, there should have been 125,995 people who died. Assuming that all the lost members died (not resigned) you get a death rate of 6.5 deaths/1000 people.
To summarize: If no one is resigning (or numbers are insignificant), and you assume that the death rate for mormon's is lower than average (due to a higher birth rate), then these numbers make sense.
HOWEVER, the interwebs tells me that the death rate for Utah is around 7.9 deaths/1000 people. That would give us around 120,000 people dying per year - more than the given 98,876.
This tells us 1. Resignations (and excommunications) are still counted. 2.Inactive members are assumed alive (until 110yrs old? hard to say) longer than the average lifespan, leading to an underestimation of the death rate. 3. These numbers are bullshit.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/05/2014 05:15PM by nailamindi.
Assuming a mortality rate is 8.3 deaths per 1000, there would have been 125,000 deaths in a population of 15 million. I'm sure there are deceased members on the rolls, but 125,000 is greater than 98,000.
The tens of thousands of resignations have to be hidden in there somewhere.
Number of Congregations is the most accurate indicator of active membership. Congregations are one figure that church can't easily lie about. One percent growth equals stagnation against general population growth.
The number of members of record relates to the birth rate. That figure continues to decline. Since it is much less than the number of births, it would appear to be related to the excess over member deaths. BTW, the death rate for members is substantially lower than the national average due to the higher birth rates (though declining) creating a more pyramidal population diagram. That is, because of a lower proportion of elderly, the TSCC death rate is less. To determine the actual longevity one needs to compare death rates by age. And then one should compare the rates of mormons with the rate of smoking. Non-smoking alone is the reason mormons have a slightly lower death rate by age. Comparing non-smoking persons with non-smoking mormons and adjusting for age, there is no difference. The rest of the WoW is meaningless - perhaps actually increasing deaths.
Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/05/2014 05:04PM by rhgc.
I have read that they keep counting resigned and X'ed members in the official numbers until they are 110 so O don't think you can determine resignations with the church numbers.