Membership statistics just reported in GC:

Total membership: 15,082,028
Children of record: 115,486
Converts: 282,945
Total growth: 398,431

Membership for 2012: 14,782,473
Percent of change is 1.99%

Also note:
NO new temples announced.
Reduced Children of record by -6787 from 2012.
Converts increased only 10,615 from 2012.
With >83,000 missionaries, that is average of <4 converts/missionary/year.

Where is that stone cut out of the mountain, without hands, that is to roll forth to encompass the whole earth?!

Tone of the talks in GC so far: The Church is hunkering down against persecution and disaffection.

My take: We exMormons are making a difference by leaving this so-called church.

And they'll be down three more once they finally process my family's resignation.

Membership increase, 2% (most of which is already inactive)
Stakes, up 1.5%
Congregations, up 1%
Baptisms, up 0.35% [edit to correct percentage]
Missionaries, up a bunch (25%?)

Not exactly setting the world on fire, are they?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/05/2014 08:08PM by Brother Of Jerry.

It seems they just now released nearly every area presidency; fired the whole lot of them!
True corporate restructuring in the face of miserable productivity.
Can't wait to see what they do when growth turns truly negative!

When members on record starts decreasing, I think they'll just stop announcing the membership figures.

Not only leaving, but for the first time in history we an talk about it in a very public way. There isn't a thing the church can do about that. They've tried, but they have zero control over those of us who left. The internet is amazing.

Exmos have seen the writing on the walls for years. Now TBMs are openly discussing the church's decline. They have done a good job of masking it for years, including the most recent missionary surge. To see record numbers of missionaries producing such paltry results really has to be galling to TBMs. How many will wonder if they have been betting on a losing horse all these years?

Vigorous Applause!!!

Based on all analyses, both in cult and ex-cult, that number is definfinitavly inflated. So... Divide by three and that is, most likely, the true number (a little over .60 percent). Let's just use the word hemorrhage like they do.

;).

HH =)

The growth will not be there when the numbers they are representing as actual members is not true. Realistically, less than half of those 15 million still attend church and many of those who no longer attend even consider themselves members. Most people don't even bother to resign, I haven't, and I highly doubt the church subtracts those resignations.

There are thousands of dead people on that list, and thousands of people in distant lands who couldn't tell you the name of the church.

For some reason the brethren find it impossible to be honest about their membership.

And you thought denial was a river in Egypt.

Monsons opening talk and report of no new temples sounded like a CEO trying to be optimistic after a bad earnings report.

Why do they add the children of record, like those children made a choice about becoming a member. It's like a rite of passage...when you are 8 you get baptized. Those kids were there since birth for the most part. That number given as part of "total growth" irritates me.

Note "children of record" are children blessed and are counted until either baptized or pass about age 9 without being baptized.

Actually, it has been reported that "children of record" are those that have been born in the Church and have not been baptized until the age of 18.

That's pathetic! Where's all the growth that the morg is always bragging about!!??

The point being tons of people are leaving. Tithing has dropped big time and will continue to do so. That is why the GC today was basically a bitch session from the old farts. They are losing money and lots of it. Most of the converts are from poorer countries so their is no revenue that amounts to much from that. It's the US and Europe that has the higher earnings of it's members and where most of the tithing comes from. Sadly for them it's also the hub of internet interaction and higher education for it's members as well. While this is great it is killing tscc. Members are finding out the truth and seeing the crap they are spewing. New convert potential is low and tscc is easily investigated upon first contact by a missionary. thus, ending further involvement by a potential convert.

Tscc knows this so all is left is to hammer down on its active members for full commitment and indoctrination of their children. They know they have to keep the kids brainwashed and basically scared too look the other way or they will lose them. tscc knows this.

Growing up, I never heard of a single person leaving the church because of questions of doctrine. (Or any married people either, he, he, he). With the internet, people now can find out so much more, and also realize how silly the whole thing is.

It looks like that giant stone is getting stuck in quicksand.

Active believing Mo's will not accept that the reason for leaving is doctrine. When I was a small child our family was very friendly with the former District President of our mission area. He had been so-called "inactive" for many years.I recall long animated discussions over doctrine . Too young to understand the material I was aware that he usually carried the arguments.My "golden child' older brother was very close to this man and he also slipped quietly into inactivity.

Before the internet one had to reason for oneself and plenty of people found the inconsistencies or just couldn't accept the craziness.The usual excuses were always trotted out-laziness,deceived by Stan,desire to sin, weak character easily swayed by others....Never admit a problem with doctrine!But I know of many people who couldn't accept one aspect of doctrine and then began to question the lot.

Over the past 25 years I have tracked convert baptisms per missionary per year. The trend has been steadily heading toward fewer baptisms per missionary.

For example, here are a few of the years:

Year Converts Missionaries Average
1989 318,940 39,739 8.03
1995 304,330 48,631 6.26
2005 243,108 52.060 4.67
2013 282,945 83,035 3.41

I don't know what it means, but hastening the work has not seemed to produce the numbers yet.

It means that the missionaries are masturbating their brains out and their god is not blessing them.

The irony is that most "active" mormons are deceased and belonged to other religions.

You can bet your arse they padded these figures, so reality must be a whole lot worse.

Uffda!

Don't most corporations call this a failure.

Not a growth rate but a shrinkage rate.

So can we agree that the retention rate is in the 30% range?

That means that out of the 282,945 rubes, 84,883 might stick with it for the next year.

How many lifelong members learn the truth every year? If it's more than 84,883 then indeed the mormon church is on it's way out.

THAT'S the rough stone rolling. And it's gaining momentum I think (and hope)

One year's data point does not a trend make. What are the numbers like for the past decade? Don't get me wrong, I think the church is slowing down. I just don't get too excited about one year.

Bleak. It has been a consistent downward trend. This number is actually quite significant when taken in light of past trends. I have the numbers in front of me, but I have yet to update my graphs and analysis from last year.

Here is a link to my analysis and graphs from last year (that take into account every reported number from the last 40 years):

http://blacksheepamidstthecougars.blogspot.com/2013/04/interesting-statistics.html

Just imagine all of the graphs with a slightly larger downtick for 2013. Two key numbers are on the rise. Number of members per unit (this indicates a decrease in activity) and number of missionaries (not a surprise considering the "revelation"). The 2013 numbers are indicative of a strong downward trend. When the cooked books look this bad, shit is going down.

Good analysis! Here's a couple suggestions for additional plots:

1. Look at things like # of Members per Temple
2. # of Units / Temple
3. Overlay as a second x-axis on top the tenure of Church Presidents
4. # of Temples/year
5. # of new Temples announced per year

Try overlaying things like temple growth over the top of your activty rate plots, % of missionaries, etc. I'm willing to bet that you'll see some trends pop out like # of temples starts to go up as activity rate declines.

"If we can get them to the Temple more often and take away distance as an excuse, we'll energize the members."