In a now closed post about how boring the mormon church is

http://exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,1351226

CA girl mentioned that other churches in Utah are trying to appeal to younger people. Do you see a time when more than 50% of Utah is never-mormon or ex-mormon and when being a mormon is not an advantage? Because of mormonism's top-down structure, it can't really be innovative or have separate services that would appeal to different groups. The lds church does boring because it can't do anything else.

Are you now seeing mormon areas of the state vs. non-mormon areas? I realize some people stay active because they do business with a majority of mormons. Will there be a tipping point when being mormon is not an advantage?

Short answer: yes. It is well on it's way especially in certain areas, probably less than 50%.

I thought Utah was already less than 50% mormon.

It looks like the numbers are close to 60% for all of Utah, and ~50% for Salt Lake County. I'm sure a good chunk of those that still self-identify as LDS aren't active. I would bet that the percentage that self-identify as LDS will be well below 50% by 2020. The percentage of Utahns that are active LDS is probably already below 35%.

Moab is below that, I think around 28%.

Some areas don't have very many mormons. Like down town Salt Lake. Other areas are rampant. Like provo/Utah County. Overall, Utah has gone down slightly in the percentage of mormons in the state. But not much. The church still has a huge hold in the politics of the state.

It depends on how you define Mormon. If you define a Mormon as a person who is on the membership records, then Utah has about 60% Mormon. If you define a Mormon as a person who believes and who is active, then only about 30-40% of Utah is Mormon.

I think the second definition is the most useful. So, to answer your question, Utah is already < 50% Mormon. SLC is about 25% Mormon.

Ever try to find a liquor store in Provo?

Yes. It's on Freedom Blvd. There's also one in Orem and a large, newer one in Springville (really crowded on Friday and Saturday nights, btw).

Plus, there are many coffee shops: at least 4 Starbucks, Juice N Java, the Coffee Pod, Buns & Brews, Beans & Brew, Art City Coffee, and more.

There is a thriving non-Mo population in Utah County, and it's getting bigger all the time. The pool of TBM-ness around BYU is shrinking fast.

Sweet

It will take a while to dilute Utah County and Davis County. I suspect the rest of Utah is already below the 50% mark, if only just barely in some cases.

According to census numbers, Utah as a whole is 60-68% LDS.

Even generously assuming 2/3 activity levels, only about 40% of Utah is active LDS.

Even Utah County is fading. All the new business at the north end of the county is bringing new blood in. In addition to this, there's a generation gap at work; the amount of LDS will decline precipitously in the next 20 years as the greatest generation and the boomers, which are where the church strength really lies, die off.

It's a beautiful state and I would happily return there to live, provided I wasn't in Provo.

Grant Palmer spoke of seeing the air going out of the church. While the church remains very powerful in Utah, its influence is waning. More and more young people are leaving. My brother and my sister are out and they are taking their children with them. My brother's brother-in-law is out. Again, it is another family with young children who were born under the covenant. We are seeing more and more people dropping out with young children.

The bulk of the membership will come from overseas. Eventually, the leadership will have to change to reflect that.

Unfortunately, their influence will endure. Plenty of people other than LDS fall in line with Mormon thinking and like the facade of Mormonism without believing it. And those people forward the Mormon control of Utah.

Utah would have to boom and have a lot of outside influence enter it to really effect change. Even a lot that leave Mormonism still hold to Mormon ideals.

A bigger change could be culturally within the church, much like catholics that profess to believe, but socially accept modern ideals, like family planning.

The more Mormons feel comfortable in ignoring church instructions the better Utah will be.

At least where I'm at.

After Sunday mass, we go straight to shop at
Winco and the store is always full with shoppers!

Walmart parking lot is always full.

I'd love to see Idaho that way!!