Planning fallacy - The tendency to underestimate task-completion times

I was just sitting here reading the humongous list of biases
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_cognitive_biases

. . . and came across one that struck home at this very moment. Planning Fallacy. I've got company coming in about four hours and, considering the amount of cleaning that still needs to be done, I fear that me sitting here may be evidence of suffering from planning fallacy.

But it's a very interesting list. Sadly, I see wayyy too many other types of biases that I feel I've been guilty of. And while I feel like it's only human to have them, I guess it's a good idea to be aware of the traps we might fall into.

Any of them catch YOUR eye?

The reason I was even looking was that I've felt that as I've read some books recently that were supposedly actual clinical sessions relating to "life after death" experiences. I was like "Yes, yes!" But I found that after a while it felt more "made up" than factual. I'd start checking their credentials and other people's criticism, and it didn't look so great. I felt like the author was actually writing a parable of his beliefs but passing them off as fact (in other words, lying) - but that it was more believable because it was told as a story.

Okay, I've got to deal with this Planning Fallacy problem I have this morning. Or, maybe I can just tell my guests a STORY about my home and how it recently was awarded a "Most Comfortable Home" award. Wonder if they'd fall for it?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 12/20/2014 10:50AM by seekyr.

A couple of quotes I live by:

First, from an advertising executive about planning an ad campaign: 'Everything takes longer than it takes and costs more than it costs.'

Second, from our dear friend and neighbour in Salzburg: 'Our home is clean enough not to be a health hazard and untidy enough to be comfortable.'

Enjoy your guests!

seekyr Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> But it's a very interesting list. Sadly, I see
> wayyy too many other types of biases that I feel
> I've been guilty of.

That's the fun part of fallacies: we're all susceptible to them :-)

Baura's Law: "Things take longer than plannd for even if you
take Baura's Law into account."