At a large family gathering of about 45 people, I noted that three of us have left the Morg--only one due to recent revelations about JS, polygamy, etc.

In my workplace I work with many TBMs, none of whom are bothered by the recent disclosures or excommunications.

Personally, I don't see a mass exodus from the Morg in my family or work associations. When I attended a sacrament meeting recently in my home Ward, attendance still was overflowing the chapel.

Am I the only one not see a mass exodus or the Second Great Apostasy? The Boner.

I try to remember how I might have handled this info as a TBM and I probably would have rationalised it all as Satan's working against God's true church. Even if the word came down from SLC on their own website, it must have been placed there by old Stan. Therefore not too many departures. How many church goers are even aware of what has been revealed? If they are TBMs, they probably are not even looking for these revelations.

It depends what part of the world you look at. Many parts of Europe there is definitely a mass exodus. The Morridor has the most firmly entrenched so you won't see it quite so much here. I do believe it is happening, just maybe not as fast as a lot of us would like to see it.

I'll give you my own personal anecdotal evidence. My grandparents on my dad's side were very TBM and had a TBM-size family of 9 kids. Out of those 9 only two remain active. Unfortunately, my dad is one of the two.

I don't personally see a "mass exodus" either. One or two whole or partial families in several good sized family groups is not a "mass" anything. For instance, out of seven, six, five children and their families, only one or two are not "active" and I only know of one family that officially resigned. That's including three generations and five family groups.
Everyone that I know from the past are still active members, and some becoming more active as they get older.

PS: The one exception is my personal family. Most are out.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2015 04:03PM by SusieQ#1.

No, there is no mass exodus. But real growth is low and momentum is gone. I do think the "glory days" are over.

Thank God for that. They were so arrogant when they had momentum on their side. The Kimball era was the worst part of the 20th century for innocent people stuck in the Mormon church.

More than a mass exodus in Europe, I see a lack of growth from new converts. Here the average members are oblivious to all that it is happening in the church lately - the essays, the CES-letter, John Dehlin, etc. They need to understand English and have a questioning mind. Unfortunately I don't see many of these among the members I know and my German relatives.

Does anyone know if there has been an effort to translate MormonThink, 'CES letter', LDS-published essays or other recent material into non-English languages? Seems to me that a great number of exmos aquired a second language as missionaries, and may be willing to step forward and give some effort at translation. Heck, I'd be willing to at least try breaking out my rusty Korean skills for the project.

Better yet, couldn't we just feed sentences into Google Translate? That would probably be even better than a returned-missionary's language skills.

Anyone know more about this? Thanks.

I think Google translation would be a good start, but it would take well-informed ex-Mormons and serious language scholars to make it both fully accurate and easy to read.

Maybe we could start a blog with a Google translation, and then let people post corrections, suggestions, or alternative renderings of certain passages. Or do like the church did and hire cheap graduate students to translate certain things.

It would definitely be easier to start with a European language, and in addition the field there is ready to harvest, so to speak. Those rusty Korean skills might be enough to start an online project at some point in the future, but not to complete it.

The first step in any language should be some individual among us obtaining the Standard Works in that language. As has been noted before, the various scriptures (BOA Facsimiles, Section 132, etc.) contain the most damning information about Mormonism.

I believe I read on a pro-LDS site that they are experiencing zero growth in 105 countries. Not good for them.

As ikki points out, the brethren must rely on the member's oblivion to keep things going.

I really don't think that the average Mormon even knows about things like the CES letter or the recent Church publications, where they 'try' to finally tell some truths.

They're just sitting happily in their little bubble of a Mormon world, oblivious to it all.

It's only those who have the courage to go exploring who discover the deceptions.

Of my nieces and nephews I don't see a 100 percent Mormon retention rate. This does surprise me. I chalk it up to Mormonism's appeal to a younger generation on the decline.

When I was young there were lots of things that got people liking to be Mormons - roadshows, people really active in scouting, lots of big fun gatherings etc.

Now I don't think that is the way Mormonism is. It is on the decline if not on the mass Exodus after Gordon "modern Moses" Hinckley.

Definitely on the decline, thanks to Hinckley. LOL

Certain individuals, often very short and usually pathological narcissists, have a way of concentrating all attention and activity on themselves. Gordon was like that. After he died, Monson was doomed to fail because Hinckley had in effect created an alternative church that died when he did.

Anyone waiting for everyone to quit is going to be sorely disappointed. However, the high point as a percentage of the world population has peaked, and it will be slowly going down.

This is my assessment as well. The church will asymptotically slump to some core level that will endure for centuries. It'll be their tribe, doctrine and history be damned.

Interesting point.

There are Christian ethnic groups that have survived in the Middle East ever since the Arab Conquest, even though governmental power and social trends have worked against them. With more problems in recent years, of course.

next time I (PNW) see a mish, I'll ask: How long u been out? how many CONVERT btisms have U yourself done, How many have U seen?

Do u know how many in the mish last 30 days (do they publish?)

In my mish (Great Lakes, 67-69) a convert baptism was A VERY BIG DEAL!

OF COURSE NOT!

THE LDS KNOW THE NUMBERS, BUT DON'T PUBLISH THEM!

The people that hear some of the issues and ignore them DESERVE Mormon bondage (time and money).

Mormonism will dwindle over time ---- a lot of their leadership in my area are old and the younger are not really stepping up. Eventually, both the older and younger TBMs will realize there is too much bondage that neither will want to do!

it depends on what you mean by mass exodus: mormonism has always had extremely low convert retention and, as anyone that has ever seen a ward list knows, it has always been true that most mormons are completely inactive - most wards only remain functional because of the efforts of a couple of dozen individuals - far less outside of the morridor

so in that sense there has always been a mass exodus of sorts

what is actually hurting TSCC today though is not the numbers of people leaving but the type of people leaving

what has changed for TSCC in recent years is that there is now a slow trickle of TR holding, tithe paying, formerly true believing mormons that are leaving - it only takes one family like that leaving per ward every year or two to completely gum up the works for TSCC

During a discussion with the local bishop a few years ago, he was lamenting that even in our solidly middle class area, tithing revenues were way down. People were having a hard time making ends meet. The insinuation was that even among the active, many weren't paying. Tithing paid per member over the last 20 years would be an interesting metric to see.

I totally agree with grubbygert. At the ward level it only takes a few key families leaving to increase ward dysfunction. Once dysfunction reaches a certain level it becomes a chore for even the most devout TBM's to attend church and the whole thing starts a downward spiral. I was in a failing ward once and was a very devout TBM at the time, and I've seen firsthand how quickly morale can fall and people can become indifferent about active participation in the ward.

In my mostly upper middle class midwestern ward I can look around the average weekly sacrament meeting congregation of about 260 and quickly point out the 10 to 12 key TBM families that make the ward run. The interesting part is that 10 to 12 families is the bare minimum for running a ward that size. Outside of those key families there's very little leadership ability. When you then factor in losing one or two of these key families over the next couple years, and then also include the younger families like mine leaving (and this is the demographic where the hemorrhaging is worst) it becomes clear that there has to be a looming leadrship crisis. Add to this the ever-increasing number of NOMs who are not going to be interested in or spiritually qualified for heavy leadership callings, and I give it 5 to 10 years until you see a significant uptick in ward consolidations, etc., as a way to deal with shrinking numbers and lack of leadership depth in the wards. Again, it's not the "quantity" of people they're losing--it's the "quality" of the people they're losing that counts.

I really think the impact of the upcoming generational shift is very underestimated. My generation (25 to 35) just isn't going to be there to step up and take the reins in the way that TSCC was planning

+1

Kind of long, I am just pontificating

In my previous ward about 5 years ago, the entire sacrament meeting was turned over to the bishopric. Each of the three spoke at length about home teaching, and the fact that it was NOT being done in our ward. As the second speaker started his talk, and it was obvious that it was the same topic, I stood up and wandered out to the foyer to claim the couch. As I was walking out, my wife glared at me, but I noticed that 5 other men were doing the same thing. None of us were interested in being chastised on that subject.

Later, I cornered one of the speakers and asked a few questions.

1. Was this a stake assignment to harangue the ward on the subject?

Yes

2. How bad was the home teaching?

About 22%

3. Does this include families that aren't assigned home teachers due to the lack of available home teaching bodies?

No, so really it is about 10% when you factor them in

I checked again in about 6 months to see if the numbers had improved due to the major push in that meeting and other meetings. No surprise here when I found that the numbers were still the same. Talking about it did not change anything.

I have kind of thought about the meaning of that, and all of your good comments above, and I have come to my own opinions on why people leave. Note, people...my OPINION

1. Tithing.....just don't want to pay it anymore, and tired of being made to feel guilty about it
2. Home teaching and other assignments....ditto, don't want to do it
3. The temple...it is just too hard to maintain the recommend. And the guilt placed on people to maintain that recommend is mind bending. And the reward of actually going to the temple is somewhat thin.
4.Callings.....sometimes too many and no appreciation. Strangely enough, sometimes it is that the main callings keep being cycled around to the same people...there are so many good men (sorry gals) who are never called into the visible callings. I think, based on some conversations, that some people actually get pissed off because they are always passed over for the "prime" callings....even though they may not actually want the calling in the first place, it would have been nice to have been considered. Kind of like....so I really did not want to go to the prom. BUT it would have been nice to have been asked.

In most cases (I think), it is not the CES letter, the UK criminal action, the essays, the polygamy. Most TBM's are not even aware of them.

It is a combination of the above factors....it is not being offended, it is not wanting to go out and sin.....I just don't want to do it anymore.

I don't think there is necessarily a mass exodus of long time, heavily active members. Though I do think they are losing more of those now than ever before. I do think there is a mass exodus of the young and a large decrease in the amount of tithing. On top of the increase in members leaving America has seen the middle class take a massive hit over the last decade or two, and that is absolutely going to hit the LDS church in the pocket book because most active long time members are middle class. Most people, no matter how TBM wont let their kids go hungry or without necessities to pay tithing no matter how many talks the bigwigs give telling them otherwise.

Maybe it's not a mass exodus but when I first started to leave TSCC, there were 2500 members on the Postmormon board. That number is up now by 7371, and stands at 9871; this is over a period of 7 years.

Here is a case in point. My ward outside of Mordor in the South East. 105-130 Sacrament meeting attendence. Elders quorum, maybe 6-12 attending tops and two of those are missionaries. HP group, about half in stake callings and other half in ward callings or 'aged' out. Very thin leadership bench available, particularly for TR required callings.

In the last year two members of the bishopric, one of them myself, have bailed on all callings (I hate the word 'active' or 'inactive', I am plenty 'active' living my life). My fellow former bishopric member and I are both highly educated, have good jobs, and can run things. I know of a couple of more 'leadership' capable members tetering.

Result. 8-10% ward tithe and offering loss from the two of us (I know the #'s). Plus Loss of two 40- to 50-somthing TR HP's.

I think my example above might be happening more and more outside Mordor. People who can run things pay attention, quickly end in leadership callings, if in bishopric you get to see all the 'sausage' being made, run up against inconsistencies, try to make sense of it all, dig a little, and run into pesky facts as you dig in to try to make sense of things. Then comes the truth of it all and find you become unwilling to lie or decieve others and likewise perform callings in the way TSCC wants them to be. And paying tithing means your party to it all - it becomes all becomes one big ethical dilemma - and so you just have to stop.

I am interested if others are seeing the same thing outside Mordor.

And you are making this observation from Utah county? You might need to get out and around a little more.

Yah, my Male MORmON parent loved to comment about how much the church seemed to be growing in some MORmON stronghold area (Boise) that was experiencing strong general growth. From that, he loved to imply that "THE" church was heartily growing everywhere. When I pointed out that he was making a very selective and specious observation, one that simply did not hold true for every location, IF it even held true in that location because I think he was very gratuitously assuming that every new household established in the area was a MORmON household, which simply was NOT true, his questionable assertions in the wake of the Salt Lake Trib Article questioning claimed MORmON growth rates at the time and the follow up of Merrill Bateman's interview on KUER where Bateman introduced the term "MIT" =members in transit = Members that LDS Inc is still counting even though LDS inc has no idea where they are living at anymore = members/ former members who obviously really dont care very much anymore. I mean, If LDS Inc no longer has these purported members actual address then those MIT are not paying very much tithing either. And that is what LDS inc is REALLY all about.

I went to Sac meeting a couple of years ago, In Eastern Idaho which is basically Northern Utah, so we are not talking about some far flung reaches of "the mission field". I was stunned at how vacant the small chapel really was, at about 20 percent attendance, maybe even less. My BIL was the bishop in that ward. He cant get enough people to fill all the ward callings, so they double and triple up on the active members that will accept callings. The Elders and the High Priests meet together because they have a token priestDUD contingent. It was OBVIOUSLY a ward that badly needed to be consolidated. The reason it was not consolidated was to preserve the vanity callings, like Bishop, in order to feed the egos of the few willing members that exist in that skeleton operating ward. A quick check of the other ward operating in the same ward house showed the same (NON) attendance levels at their Sac meeting.


Any active adult priestDUD holder, out of a handful, who attends and demonstrates any competence and devotion has a shot to be the next bishop in those wards. That is what keeps the undersized token priestDUD core of those wards going. It is so painfully obvious that I am laughing about it. And how long is that going to hold up, after it catches on that anybody can be made bishop? Just as comical are the people who still attend out of some strange social inertia (for church welfare?) but make it very clear that they have no interest in being burdened with any callings. These people are a real aggravation to my BIL, because they FTP (fail to perform) if they are given a calling, and the leaders can not get too heavy handed with attempting to discipline them or compel them to do anything, or they will quit attending and make ward attendance drop even lower.


This was NOT like the situation in my home ward in the 1970's while I was growing up. It was a much larger chapel and it constantly ran into the overflow during sac meeting. LDS INC was sucking tithing on gross income and an additional 10 percent with all their other financial demands. LDS Inc was compelled to split that ward to keep things rolling. Now LDS Inc is compelled to not consolidate in order to maintain their facade of not imploding.

My MORmON male parent had 5 sons go on full time MORmON missions. It remains to be seen IF he will have that many grandsons go as there are only a few more grand sons than that and its quite doubtful that most will want to go. There has only been one so far and 2 who did not. EVEN IF the next generation musters 5 full time elders, it is very doubtful that they will baptize as many as me and my siblings did, probably not even as many as I did. The generation after that is going to do far less, as in practically nothing! THAT is NOT exponential growth in action. It is much more like exponential decline. It is NOT looking good for MORmONISM with in my own super TBM family.


That is a HUGE difference / DECLINE in how things are currently operating for LDS INC versus in the past of a few decades ago, , and that decline is very apparent to me.

- smurkorama

Perhaps I have my acronyms...I am still new. My assumption was by saying "outside Mordor" that I was saying outside of Utah.

I think what you saw in Idaho is quite enlightening. Pretty similar I think to my illustration.

Methinks things not boding well for TSCC.

If you're not a tithe-paying, TR holding member, 'good luck' to advancing to leadership. It's a self-selecting inner circle that isn't apparent to new convert members.


2nd counselor in the SS anyone?

Sometimes, when things seem to implode out of the blue, it's really the result of a steady, mostly unobserved internal decay that arrived at its inevitable tipping point.

That maybe what we're watching and feeling here.

One can only hope.

Seems to me that if out of those who sign up more leave than stay, you've got a mass exodus.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2015 08:17PM by thingsithink.

Damn few of us who even know Stan by his first name.

Y not sit back and rejoice?

Dejavu Nauvouooooo.

meh

Oh fuck Shumms! Have you been sampling the cooking sherry again?

With the merging of wards so that there are enough "Active priesthood holders" they're having to merge wards.
As this blogger points out it's a new marketing strategy; but it's window dressing to cover up the inactivity and the wards being filled with "chapel Mormons" who aren't TR worthy.

http://www.wheatandtares.org/16174/merging-wards-a-change-in-strategy/

Recent talks from church leaders would indicate something is amiss.

The only thing I've noticed is that due to the recession, many Mormon families couldn't afford to live in the area anymore, so the wards that met in the building I did had to combine. This was because it's a high cost of living area, and so many people were hit with layoffs and unable to make mortgage payments anymore. This is in the mission field, and it's possible that many TBM's moved to the Morridor or other areas where the cost of living is lower.

Other than that, I haven't really seen a mass exodus since I'm sure that many of those TBM families who moved out of the wards are still very much TBM. Now, the only people who tend to leave are converts who don't stay very long, or those who simply become inactive. I've noticed that men tend to go inactive more than women do, and that from what I've seen, they're at least Jack Mormons who don't resign because their TBM families would completely shun them. As before, the biggest source of growth the Mormon church has is through the birthrate, as while some TBM's might have fewer children, they still have larger families than average Americans do.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 02/14/2015 11:04PM by adoylelb.

I live in Mordor and as I'm pushing 40 and never been married, I can say that among the singles, there IS an exodus going on... I was a hold-out until last year.

I think it's more telling to look at the single population as they are less "entrenched" (no spouse, children or in-laws to disappoint). They seem more free to react more immediately to new information (CES Letter, Essays).

Many who DO go to church go for social reasons and certainly don't behave like "proper" LDS folk on the weekends.

I seem to hear about someone new leaving/questioning/etc just about every week...

This is what bothers me after every trip to rfm. Mormonism may be imploding, yet my entire family still has their heads firmly entrenched up their hindquarters, despite their intelligence and overall decency.

LDS, Inc KNOWS how many ppl are leaving, Why won't they tell?