And notice the change that occurred when RfM went online in 1996.

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/membership.php

Neat stuff. How are you defining attrition in the last graph? Also on that graph, why did you select a 5 year sliding average?

It's the number of names removed from church records, estimated by finding the remainder of a number balance of children of record, convert baptisms, deaths of active members, and inactive members who turn 110. Apparently the church is constantly correcting errors and replacing names that fall through the clerical cracks, though, so I have to smooth it out, and one way of doing that is using a rolling average.

Really well done, many thanks. I'll refer to this often!

This is great! Thank you for doing this and sharing it.

Wowzers, great job!

I can tell you were guided by the Spirit!

In a 1970 conference speech the leaders announced the activity rate had finally reach 36%! I'll find it an post a link. Most think the activity rate was as low at 20% in the 1920s.

Bingo. Hope this helps:

https://archive.org/stream/improvementera7101unse#page/n29/mode/2up

When I was LDS and a Ward Clerk in N. Virginia in 1990 our activity rate was 30%, but we reported 35%. We had visiting authority come through and my notes from his private meeting with us indicated that the overall activity rate was in the low 30s. He also told us that most "converts" fell away within the first year. I asked why we didn't pull financial resources from Missionary and put it into member retention. He didn't like the question.

A similar thing happened when I asked the visiting Church Historian why a faith that had now existed longer in the 20th century than the 19th, was so focused on pioneer history and not modern history.

Either they were reporting births to all those inactives, or the actual Mormon birth rate in the 1920s was over 120, which is basically impossible, so I doubt those people skipping out on sacrament meeting were fully inactive and disconnected from the church. They were probably just more lackadaisical about attendance back then.

I'm with you. I have to really question the so-called activity rate. I note that in the 1950's it is reported at 90%! Well, I was a teenage priesthood holder then living in Salt Lake City - the heart of Mormonism. I used to do what was then called ward teaching every month with an much older ward elder. I recall many members whom we visited never attended services. Most of them had been born in Utah as the descendants of pioneers and had no interest in the church.

They received us out of politeness and didn't want to hear a religious message. We usually just asked how they were doing and discussed a non-religious news story or latest ball score so we would be welcomed back the next month. I usually offered a short prayer which included a blessing on the family. They never objected.

I feel that 30% and 40% is more accurate. 90% is simply not realistic based on my memory and experience.

My activity rate is defined using how many children are added to the records of the church each year. In the 1950's the number of children added in the reports divided by the overall membership was very near the reported Mormon birthrate in the high 30's per thousand, which is a reasonable birthrate for Mormons at the time. Whether or not they attended church regularly is another question, but according to the numbers, most of those children were clearly being added to the records.

(Assuming the church was honest in the reports, of course. There doesn't appear to be any reason to believe it wasn't, but it may have been invasive with regards to tracking down births to inactives.)

Some things to consider. First, dependable birth control didn't exist in the fifties (the pill was introduced in the sixties) and so the number of children in an average family was greater. Second, most children were baptized at eight years of age even when from inactive families. There was a lot of social and family pressure back then to be baptized. Also, many of my friends, myself included, attended church for Boy Scouts and our parent never attended.

While the rest of your charts are impressive, I would advise you to re-consider the way you determine activity.

...in Alabama and Tennessee in the '70s and '80s. The activity rate ran around 35-40% in all three wards. I might have fudged the attendance numbers enough to drive it up maybe 5%. And of course, there's no telling how many inactive members lived in our ward boundary for whom we had no records and thus didn't count against our stats. Because of that, the activity rate could have actually been 5-10% less than we reported.

Bingo.

https://archive.org/stream/improvementera7101unse#page/n29/mode/2up

Well done. Looking forward to the background info.

Looks like LDS Inc. crossed from active to inactive around the time Kimball died. I would say that is when their gospel lost relevancy in the modern world and they switched to a wholly corporate offering model.

Awesome job on this! The numbers are about what I would expect. I can't look at the almanacs on my phone but how were the activity rates determined, especially back when it was 100%? Obviously it wasn't that high but did you or the church use a different methodology for those years?

Also, it's been rumored around these parts that the church still includes former members in their membership totals. Is that not the case? I know they include inactive members but some people claim they even include people who have resigned.

The angels of Heaven will quote from this work.

The church gets weaker as it gets bigger.

Very good. I like the graph. Two million of us.

A lot of work went into your graphs Kimball.

And the left brain in me loves stuff like this.

Thank you X 100.

:)

Corporations (including Joseph Inc.) follow an "S" growth curve from a slow beginning to accelerated growth to a no-growth peak followed by a slow, painful decline which cannot be reversed.

Mormonism has passed its no-growth peak and is now clearly in decline. Gordy's temple building binge is about to come down hard on the unholy fifteen. Members cleaning toilets is just the beginning of what will be asked of the remaining faithful as the brethren attempt to carry on the illusion that "all is well in Zion".

Coolness. If you don't mind kimball, I added a link to your site here: http://mormonthink.com/glossary/membership-statistics.htm

Thanks! I'm working on an explanation of my detailed methodology now - I hope to release it in the next few days. Then all the hard-thinking people will be able to draw their own conclusions from the data.

Good work. You're speaking my language.

I would love to see this compared to other religions as well would be nice to see for example active rate or Jehovah witness or 7th day ect religions that came about the same time as Mormons

BKP will need to update the biggest threats to the church. Intellectuals, Homosexuals, Feminists, and now Statisticians.