233,729 saps last year, eh?

That. Is. Laughable.

Even though convert baptisms are down, you’d think they’d want to brag about 16 million “members.”

If both convert baptisms and children of record are down, then why did membership go up? Number of baptismal age kids??

Look at the number of children of record being born...

====== an aging membership.....

They didn't report negative growth, they reported positive growth, it's just not as high as last year.

Converts and children of record outpaced deaths and resignations...according to their report. However, most of the 16 million members reported aren’t active, so there’s a chance that they missed tens of thousands of deaths. We also know that most of the 230k converts will be inactive within a year. I would bet, based on these numbers, that TBM deaths are outpacing converts that stick around long term. The only way the church will grow in the future is if they can retain close to 100% of children born into it...and we know that isn’t happening.

The church has plateaued. No real growth for a long time. They will have less born in church in the future. Unless they find new converts that stay somewhere the church will enter a shrinking curve.

2007 2.53%
2008 2.35%
2009 2.34%
2010 2.22%
2011 2.19%
2012 2.31%
2013 2.03%
2014 1.92%
2015 1.70%
2016 1.59%
2017 1.48%

Steady decline folks. And what is amazing is the record number of missionaries serving since Tommy lowered the minimum age. If you look at it from a corporate perspective, ChurchCo is not getting its investment back unless you take indoctrination of the missionaries into account. Its really no wonder they are closing training centers. Missionary work costs a lot of $$.

Does indoctrination of missionaries really work?

Any idea how many get home and just walk away?

If the trend in slowing growth rates continues, then in 5 or 6 years, give or take, the rate _may_ drop below 1% per year.

That presumes that 3rd world conversion rates don't suddenly skyrocket, or that falling 1st world rates don't stabilize.

But a yearly rate of, say, .95% would be hard to gloss over with rationalizations/apologetics.

Yeah, about that...

I did a linear regression of the numbers above.
Here are the results:

https://imgur.com/a/mH7r5

Given the trend of the past 10 years, the church will cross 0% growth sometime in 2032, and by 2033 will be in negative growth.

Statistics rocks :)



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/02/2018 09:18PM by ificouldhietokolob.

From your posted graph (at the bottom)

"If the trend of the last 10 years continues, the church will be in negative growth by 2019"

Oops, typo when I posted it :(

The bottom line of the graph isn't 0, it's 1.4.

Using the linear regression equation to find where y=0:

0 = -0.09973X + 202.71127

-202.71127/-0.09973 = X

2032.6 = X



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/02/2018 09:35PM by ificouldhietokolob.

Yeah, I knew it was a typo - I just wanted to call your attention to it. ;-)

I wouldn't be surprised if they hit negative growth before that. I think The Cult's losses will accelerate. Their official numbers may show continued growth for many more years, but the reality will be shrinking membership. Active membership growth will likely be negative in the next decade if it isn't already.

[|] Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yeah, I knew it was a typo - I just wanted to
> call your attention to it. ;-)

Thanks :) Corrected.

> I wouldn't be surprised if they hit negative
> growth before that. I think The Cult's losses will
> accelerate. Their official numbers may show
> continued growth for many more years, but the
> reality will be shrinking membership. Active
> membership growth will likely be negative in the
> next decade if it isn't already.

I agree. The trend for the last 10 years doesn't account for lots of changes in the world.

And actual "growth" probably already is negative -- when you consider the activity rates, especially of new converts, which are dismal.

So there is a point above the trendline 2012. Oh, that is the "missionary surge", no, the new mission age of 18 was announced in the fall of 2012, so the surge would have come 2013 and 2014. Well, no effect on results, and the last 3 years have been below the trend line, so I'd say the trend is to go negative earlier than 2030. I suspect the younger missionaries are even less effective as they come off looking even more like naive kids than someone you'd actually take spiritual advice from.

I'll bet TSCC doesn't post any negative trend should it happen. I believe their baptism numbers now (the real lie is hidden in the unreported activity rate), but once they get close to zero they are going to fudge the numbers to avoid reporting negative. Or else they'll stop reporting altogether. Sites like Cumorah.com might be in trouble once the numbers get worse.

Funny Numbers:

Total Church Membership in 2016: 15,882,417

in 2017 New Children of Record: 106,771
in 2017 Converts Baptized: 233,729
total children and converts: 340,500

Claimed membership in 2017: 16,118,169
2017-2016 = 235,752 increase

In the United States:
Death rate: 823.7 deaths per 100,000 population. or 0.823% of the population. Throughout the world the number is higher. Let's round down to 0.8%

15,882,417 (2016 claimed membership) * 0.008 = 127,000 deaths per year

Add the claimed 235,752 claimed increase plus 127,000 estimate deaths = 352,752 which is close to their claimed converts and children of record. If that is to be believed, no one quit the Mormon Church in 2017. They continue to count those who are no longer active or who have quit the organization. We are never removed from their statistics.

We may still be part of the numbers in their books.

But we aren't in their pews, and we are not donating to their coffers.

And it's THOSE numbers that really matter.

the church does not wipe you from the records until you are 110 years old, even if you die. At least this was true in the early 1990s.

That only applies to those members whom the church cannot locate, which generally exceeds one-third of the membership. These are members who decided that they didn't identify as Mormons, after all, and leave no forwarding address, so to speak. But to just give up and acknowledge that these members are not out there anymore is just something that church leaders cannot do, and still appear successful. Protection of the church's reputation at all costs--even lying--is paramount.

362,752 ---- for added members plus estimated deaths -- you dropped 10,000 from your calculation.


22,000 less deaths than to be expected.

I have statistical analysis of numbers through 2008 in Excel if anyone wants the files, reply to this post and I will send you the documentation.

I found I have the analysis through 2012 that I can send

Please send to elderolddog@gmail.com

Thank you.

There are three kinds of lies: lies, damn lies,


....and statistics.

The Mormon type of lies are "White Lies." And I'm not talking about small falsehoods when I say "White Lies."

;-)

How many inactives!???

New Converts coming from Baptism for the Dead.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2018 12:16PM by frackenmess.

Figures don't lie, but liars figure...

I have one STAT for my not-so-little and brittle, but long and strong, middle finger!

That's the only relevant stat.

M@t

The latest Cumorah newsletter mentions the new LDS stat report:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1W-LDYisGlwWnJpLyT7SJYOebJOaDBv93/view

The Cumorah newsletter was very interesting. Under the Locations Recently Reached category the only U.S. listing is Browning, Montana. It's an Native American reservation for the Blackfeet tribe and one of the poorest communities in the lower 48. A majority of the reservation is without cell and internet service. It's a very sad situation, especially since the Browning is just east of Glacier National Park with stunning views of the peaks along the Rocky Mountain Front.

Like Africa, LD$ Inc. only grows in poor, undeveloped areas.

My daughter and her family are currently in Heart Butte, teaching elementary. Few members there, a ward out east in the city (Shelby?) and a SS up at Browning. They've been attending Browning mostly.

She has worked previously on another rez near Great Falls. She will be leaving Montana tho, moving to Toledo to be near her sister's family, and no doubt stakes and temples.

The most remarkable figure is the continuing declining birth rate among Mormons.

rhgc Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The most remarkable figure is the continuing
> declining birth rate among Mormons.


That caught my attention, too.

Yep, just over 100k new children of record puts them well below average birth rates...if all 16 million members were active. I think the reality is that the birth rate for active Mormons is still higher than average. However, less than half of the counted members are active, so, if they’re having kids, they aren’t being counted as Mormons.

There aren’t 30k wards. Many of those units are branches, some of which don’t belong to a stake. For example, there are almost 100 units in Russia, but only three stakes. There are a bunch of small branches that belong to mission districts, etc...

If there are roughly 3300 stakes and over 30000 wards, that would mean that there is an average of over nine wards in every stake in the church. When is the last time you ever heard of any stake ever having nine wards? Then consider also that for every stake you know of, and many others, that have only three wards, there is a stake somewhere (statistically) with fifteen or more wards. If the church is going to lie to us about it's numbers, the least they should do is to make up some believable lies.

I heard somewhere recently that the church brings in about eight billion dollars per year in tithing. Divide that by sixteen million members and you have an average annual tithe per member of $500.00. That's not exactly a faith promoting fact. I give more than that every year to the United Way (without being commanded to do it or accused of stealing from god if I don't do it), and they don't have to pay for expensive temples to keep the cashflow coming in. Plus, the United Way provides extensive reports about exactly how and where the money they receive is spent.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/03/2018 02:42AM by azsteve.

The number of wards for stakes in southern idaho is often 4-5 wards a stake!!

There were 202 new units created in 2017. If those new units were all wards with 400 members, that adds up to about 80,000 people.

This number gives us a better idea of just how many new butts they were able to put in the pews. Not that impressive given the total membership and number of missionaries.