I haven't posted in a while, but thought I'd share this little project I recently finished. Watch the opening and closure of church units worldwide in real time, and see that the trend over the last couple of years does not bode well for LDS inc.

http://www.fullerconsideration.com/units.php

Mexico has made me proud!!!!

+1
I was very proud to see that too. Looks like they are doing a quick write-off so they can show growth in the future.

Would like some interpretation what the visuals mean from someone who has analyzed and understands them.

Great work, love it! The name removal chart is the most interesting to me, breaks down to over 200 per business day that the church is removing!

But look at Antarctica! An entire continent with no negative growth!

That will be the hot new mission field. Somebody needs to fix their filthy mating habits.

Pleased to see a branch closed in the stake that I was in,thats 2 from that stake gone,a branch and a ward.

Outstanding! A very remarkable study, backed up by a huge amount of data and a thorough explanation.
I didn't quite follow the bit about name removal of inactives at age 110. Clerks may well be aware of inactive deaths earlier, and enter the data. Is there an assumption that inactives do not have their names removed until age 110? Are you underestimating the rate of name removal due to death?

That’s a very good question.

First off, you have to remember that the activity for older members is lower than for younger members. The general trend with age is toward inactivity, and like you said, there are certainly inactives whose deaths are recorded. Those two factors work against each other, but no assumption can be made about which is greater.

So, what I did was I used the activity rate on my calculated death rate, and then performed an adjustment to align the deaths with the death rate that was reported by the church from the 1910’s to the 1980’s. I found that the church actually recorded fewer deaths than what the overall activity rate suggested, not more. This, I suppose, means that inactivity among the elderly is extremely high. And that makes sense, since the vast majority of inactives almost certainly come from converts who fall away within the first year after their baptism, and thus are very hard to keep track of.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/04/2018 12:56AM by kimball.

Did you see the posted activity rate?
29%
Is this correct?? Wowee

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1n_M_kvV2jdVsGqCPkE6twRFb3IoV06lSvkfB7sUC8rE/edit#gid=0

With an expected activity rate of 20% in 2060...lmao

No only that, but more than 11.5 million inactive members, leaving only over 4.7 million active members.

Amazing. So different from what I grew up in. Latin America was hot hot hot. SWK yammered about 65 million Lamanites to convert. Mishies who came back from Mexico with only 30 convert baptisms were total failures. Look at all the red now. ¡Viva México!

The Iron Curtain countries? That was for crazies like Skousen to yap about. You damn well better have your tithing paid up when mishies went to the Soviet Union! Now I see they are in USSR breakup countries like Armenia and Georgia?!

Sub-Saharan Africa? Hahahaha! You're joking, right? Right?! RIGHT!? They're black - sinned in the pre-existence - curse of Cain - descendants of Ham. Look at all the green there now.

I look over the linked map and, wow, what a different cult.

On a personal note, my mission was in Germany in the 70s. I am so pleased to see nothing but red there.

The activity rate in the UK is about 15% . There are about 110,000 people attending sacrament meeting in the whole of Europe including Russia, Turkey , Georgia and Armenia.

So over the period there is a net loss of 24 wards and Branches!