Posted by:
Lot's Wife
(
)
Date: April 14, 2020 05:37AM
There is no question that many countries' data are wide of the mark. The US, as you know, is only now beginning to test the broader population as opposed to those with COVID symptoms, and until that broader research is done it is impossible to know the extent of the infection or to get a sense of progress towards herd immunity. Meanwhile the administration is throwing sand in the air to divert attention and shift responsibility.
That said, I have read a number of reports based on the rate of mutation and the speed of the early pandemic concluding that it is highly unlikely that the illness only entered humans in early December. There were two peer-reviewed articles in particular but I can't find them now and, in any case, don't have the academic background to evaluate them with full confidence. But the official Chinese position is that the infection began in Wuhan on December 8th and Beijing only admitted that human-to-human contagion was possible on January 21st.*
The facts belie those claims. When doctors went public in late December, they were reprimanded by their hospital superiors and at least one physician was compelled by police to sign a confession that his public statements were false.** It is tempting to conclude that that was a local initiative but I don't buy it since these matters are routinely handled by the State Council which, as you know, is the de facto cabinet. There is now a running battle between the Beijing and private individuals all over the country who keep posting screen shots of the banned interviews and the supporting documentation. The national government would not be involved if the dispute were merely local.
Moreover internal Chinese sources state that the earliest infection dates to November 17, three weeks before the original transmission "officially" occurred.*** So this is clearly an instance in which the scientists with whom you might professionally interact are saying things privately that Beijing denies publicly.
Beijing's directive demanding that all research on COVID-19 be submitted for special review was issued on March 25 by the Ministry of Education to at least two universities in Wuhan as well as to Fudan University in Shanghai. [Original document****] It stipulated that all research on the pandemic be scrutinized not only through the usual scholarly process but also by a special "academic body" that would review it "with an emphasis on checking the accuracy of the thesis, as well as whether it is suitable for publication." Thereafter the papers must be sent to the Ministry of Science and Technology for yet another review and may "only be published after [having] been checked by MOST." We thus see the central government imposing two additional levels of vetting, both expressly designed to decide whether the research is "suitable for publication." Two of the universities posted the document online, and last week the central government demanded that it too be deleted on the grounds that it is unsuitable for publication.*****
None of this surprises me. China has always sought to downplay embarrassing news both domestically and internationally, and in April 2014 Xi Jinping elevated that effort to a key element of his national security strategy. There is really nothing secret about the government's determination to "shape" the news. Of course this does not add up to evidence that China designed the virus or intentionally unleashed it--risible, in my opinion, conspiracy theories--but by the same token there is abundant evidence that the central government is dissembling about China's role in the early stages of the pandemic.
That is the one point in your essay with which I would quibble.
*
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-report**
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/chinese-universities-delete-censorship-notices-for-new-coronavirus-research/***
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/society/article/3074991/coronavirus-chinas-first-confirmed-covid-19-case-traced-backhttps://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/13/first-covid-19-case-happened-in-november-china-government-records-show-reporthttps://www.livescience.com/first-case-coronavirus-found.html****
http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:L9chDVyS40AJ:kjc.cug.edu.cn/info/1193/5233.htm+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=de*****
https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/chinese-universities-delete-censorship-notices-for-new-coronavirus-research/https://www.ibtimes.com/coronavirus-origin-cover-china-stifles-research-instructions-posted-online-deleted-2957287https://www.newsweek.com/china-censoring-research-covid-19-origins-deleted-page-wuhan-university-website-suggests-1497467https://nypost.com/2020/04/13/chinese-universities-delete-censorship-notices-for-new-coronavirus-research/Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/14/2020 05:47AM by Lot's Wife.