I saw this great report today on CBS Sunday Morning, about a well known artist who paints the future he hopes to see, once all of this is over, called, "After the Storm"

It's a beautiful, human story that got me into a great discussion with my ExMo sister about, what gives you hope in a time like this.

Links please.

https://www.cbsnews.com/video/artist-kadir-nelsons-after-the-storm/

Today was another Sunday that Mormons were forced to stay home from church. That gives me hope.

The human spirit in all of its billions of forms.

What gives me hope is my confidence in my ability to survive whatever comes.

I don't find the times depressing or hopeless. It's had only minimal impact on me personally. I had to skip a backcountry weekend is the only thing I really missed out on. I have less direct interaction with my friends but we're in contact multiple times per day.

Living safely isn't difficult or onerous though I see it is for some. I've donated more recently than usual.

Life continues on and will continue to. I don't need an externality to drive me forward differently than other times. My motivation remains the same.

Love.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Love.
On that we can agree 100%

Love,
show me wisdom greater than this.

Well, love and chocolate. . .

Yes...those too...

I am fortunate to live out in the country with no nearby neighbors so isolation is relatively easy...I enjoy the solitude and privacy it affords and I'm taking this opportunity to buy less food, less often and eat less of it to drop some pounds...and I hope to hug my children and grandchildren when this has subsided somewhat and to be with my girlfriend again and feel her love. Video chatting is keeping me sane. Be safe, be well people and don't miss an opportunity to tell those you love just how much.

Dear Sir or Madam,

I love you THHHIIIIISSSS much!!!!

Lethro is good people.

I like how things are going in my life, but then when push comes to shove, I have to admit that I'm hopelessly in love with Saucie and Life.

It's hopeless, I tell you!!!

elderolddog Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like how things are going in my life, but then
> when push comes to shove, I have to admit that I'm
> hopelessly in love with Saucie and Life.
>
> It's hopeless, I tell you!!!


I was going to say the same thing...Mi Amor. its you.

Holycrap! I think I speak for many here who will be glad when you two are old enough to date.

Hang in there.

On a serious note, a bit of sanity about how these pandemics follow a more predictable tragectory than many of the models would indicate. I submit for your consideration:

"The only “model” with any success is actually quite accomplished and appeared in 1840, when a “computer” was an abacus. It’s called Farr’s Law, and is actually more of an observation that epidemics grow fastest at first and then slow to a peak, then decline in a more-or-less symmetrical pattern. As you might guess from the date, it precedes public health services and doesn’t require lockdowns or really any interventions at all. Rather, the disease grabs the low-hanging fruit (with COVID-19 that’s the elderly with co-morbid conditions) and finds it progressively harder to get more fruit."

Source:

https://issuesinsights.com/2020/04/18/after-repeated-failures-its-time-to-permanently-dump-epidemic-models/

On a personal level, I echo DesertRat's individual optimism: Perhaps because of my Christian Science background, I have always had a strong immune system. However, being 72, I play it safe by minimizing my exposure to others. And, I'm grateful that my finances are both adequate and secure.

Edit: Ditto for Saucie.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/19/2020 10:18PM by caffiend.

Farr's law, as you explain it, makes perfect sense.

But it does not help very much. Understanding what the Plague was going to do in the 14th century wouldn't have made any difference in the outcome, nor much difference regarding the Spanish influenza of a century ago. What matters is the mathematical and scientific expansion of that law in a form that is prescriptively useful.

There are pandemics whose unrestrained consequences have been the effective eradication of species--witness today's Tasmanian Devils--and there are likewise diseases like polio that devastate the young as well as the old. It therefore doesn't make sense to say that because we understand Farr's law we don't need to worry about a poorly understood illness.

Polio definitely.
The Spanish flu came on the heels of WWI, when large populations were at high risk. American GIs, exposed to the virus, came back and spread it all over the USA. Thus, a more extreme phenomenon.

The article argues that the [term removed by Admin] Virus appears to be conforming to most pandemics. It also points out that the high range gets media attention, not the middle or low. Every newspaper man knows catastrophe sells. ("If it bleeds, it leads.") The OP asked, "what gives you hope." This gives me hope. It's bad, but not the apocalyptic scenario many prognosticated.

Like a wounded, cornered animal, the [term removed by Admin ] virus remains dangerous, and (I expect) will be so until mid summer. Prudent measures are, and will be, called for still. For example, my church has shampooed the carpets during the lockdown, and will set chairs (no fixed pews) at greater distances, and in small groups of 1, 2, 4,5,6 (etc.) so that family groups, whose microbes are already well acquainted, can sit together, but somewhat distant from others.

And just because I have Superman's immune system doesn't mean I want to pick a fight with this one!

Hope you and yours are healthy, safe, and sane, LW!



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/20/2020 04:32PM by maude.

> Polio definitely.
> The Spanish flu came on the heels of WWI, when
> large populations were at high risk. American GIs,
> exposed to the virus, came back and spread it all
> over the USA. Thus, a more extreme phenomenon.

But there are many other examples as well. The diseases that swept through the Roman Empire after the joining of previously separate ecumenes, for instance, or the introduction of small pox into the Americas or the expansion of the Plague in Europe after the connection of Europe and the Central Asian steppes, are examples of pandemics that followed the typical logistical curve but reached far too high a plateau before fading away. So while Farr's law still applies, it is not particularlyl encouraging.

Regarding the 1918 episode, whether there was a problem of globally suppressed immune systems isn't really relevant. The point is that understanding both pandemic dynamics and how to address them is ALWAYS helpful. If such knowledge existed in 1918 the upshot would have been a significant reduction in deaths and suffering even with the straitened healthcare, financial, and logistical capacities of the day.


---------------
> The article argues that the Wuhan Virus appears to
> be conforming to most pandemics.

Yes: spread from one or a few infections up through a typical logistical curve to an eventual leveling off followed either by dissipation or by transformation into an endemic disease. I am unaware of an expert who expected anything else; Farr's law/the logistical curve are close to an iron law of epidemiology.


--------------
> Every newspaper man knows
> catastrophe sells. ("If it bleeds, it leads.") The
> OP asked, "what gives you hope." This gives me
> hope. It's bad, but not the apocalyptic scenario
> many prognosticated.

Again, I'm not sure what the apocalyptic scenario was other than something somewhat more serious than the Spanish flu. After all, any significantly higher degree of lethality generally leads a pandemic to burn itself out--witness the various hemorrhagic fevers--quite quickly. What was unsettling about COVID-19 was its high degree of communicability combined with a fatality rate of 1-4%, vastly lower than those hemorrhagic fevers, which is the sort of profile that causes the most damage.

But no matter whether we define the apocalyptic scenario as 1.5-3 times 1918 or something else, perhaps the major reason that COVID-19 has not attained those proportions is the fact that governments armed with scientific expertise have taken prophylactic and remedial actions. That underscores the importance of taking such illnesses seriously.


--------------
> Like a wounded, cornered animal, the Wuhan virus
> remains dangerous, and (I expect) will be so until
> mid summer.

I think that is unduly optimistic. Even with the new Stanford and Icelandic data on antibodies, the United States and the world are at least an order of magnitude short of herd immunity. Moreover we are a year away from the deployment, assuming a very early development, of an effective vaccine. Marginal opening may be possible, but the key is stopping short of engendering a wave pattern lest that do still more harm to society and the economy (and hence politics).


---------------
> Hope you and yours are healthy, safe, and sane,
> LW!

To you as well.

“As you might guess from the date, it precedes public health services and doesn’t require lockdowns or really any interventions at all.”

But they didn’t have jet airliners and cars. A pandemic in an interconnected, mobile world is a different thing. Farr’s law may apply to the present situation, which is what they seem to be counting on.

How long before international travel is a thing is anyone’s guess.

I'm not surprised the refugees from Investors Business Daily would say that.

All epidemics will increase rapidly at the start, reach a peak, and then gradually decline. Isolation measures are designed not to fundamentally change that, but to decrease the height of the peak to avoid overwhelming the health care system.

Since they mention Sweden as an example of why we don't need to, let's look at the numbers

From
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

For Sweden (who hasn't implemented restrictions), the number of deaths per 100,000 is 152.

For Denmark (who has implemented restrictions) ther number of deaths per 100,000 is 61.

For Norway, (who also has) the number is 30.

For comparison, the US is at 143.

Should be deaths per 1,000,000 not per 100,000

I find it slightly comforting that so many Americans don’t believe in rules.

There's nothing more American than the right to risk your own health in ways that kill others.

Corporation (conglomerates of people) trump actual people. As long as they preach "individualism" in doing the corporation's bidding the land of opportunities will sacrifice the few for the interests of the many. It is just utilitarianism with Christ to save you if you fail in promoting corporate control of your life!

America invented the cult of rational self interest. As we’ve seen in Mormonism, you don’t get cult members to change their ideas overnight. Vulnerability to COVID19 is baked into the American psyche.

I haven't a clue what you just said.

Doesn’t the TV News scream “cult” to you? America is a cult because that’s what concentrates unaccountable power. The downside of creating a cult is that its members believe the bull crap you taught them. They think Adam Smith’s “every man for himself” theories are the one true way to order an economy.

Evangelical churches are cults, as can be seen by Trump’s status as a cult leader. A cult leader can do no wrong. The Stormy Daniels scandal was nothing. That’s the hold he has. Incidentally, this is why Russell M Nelson could shoot a man in the middle of Fifth Avenue and not lose members.

Science is another cult. It’s pretty apparent when you look at how vulnerable scientists are to confirmation bias, but more importantly they can be excommunicated for heresy. They aren’t allowed to publicly pursue subjects considered taboo by the orthodoxy. It’s Mormonism writ large. To be fair to scientists, it’s not their fault. Their system is set up to limit their power by pitting them against each other while using them as wage slaves. Although they have paid janitors.

The doctrine of individual freedom is where the chickens come home to roost. Containing the virus means teaching old dogs new tricks. Some dogs will not be taught.

The consequences of the virus are in line with the principle of “you reap what you sow”, which at least makes it fair. As if I have any business talking about fair when I can cure myself if I get sick. It’s just as disturbing to watch unfold.

I still don't know what you said, except that people with strong political or scientific opinions are cultists.

Of course, it remains to be seen in the long run, which country fares better. The second or third waves will be stronger in countries with more restrictions.

We also need to count the lives lost due to economic struggles.

I've resigned myself to accepting that shutdowns are our future.

Any talk of relaxing restrictions is met with accusations that you want to kill people. In 2017-2018, influenza killed 80,000 in the U.S., but we did not shut down the economy.

So now it is critical to shut things down and cause massive unemployment here and around the world (the U.S. buys from many countries).

Apparently deaths that always have happened are now a crisis.

Anyway, plan on being out of work every winter for the flu. Government will just send out checks - no need to produce anything.

BTW, thank god the government is here to tell me I can't go fishing in our state - very risky.

Land of the free, and home of the brave!

80,000 flu deaths couple winters ago

https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/doctors-speak-bluntly-about-record-80-000-flu-deaths-n914246

The number of people being found dead in their home or apartment is another feature of the pandemic. They died of either the virus or boredom.

The Spanish flu of 1918-19 killed 675,000 Americans, and at least 50 million world wide. Some figures go as high as 100 million. St. Louis, which shut down early and hard during this pandemic ended up doing *much* better in terms of deaths than places that did not, such as Philadelphia.

Although the fatality rate for Covid-19 has yet to be determined, at a minimum it will be similar to the Spanish flu.

Why does everything need to end on a hopeful note? I personally see the future of mankind- and by association- as unbelievably dismal and cruel and self-centered until we wipe out 99% of what makes our planet habitable and eliminates the selfish part of our genetic code. That won't be any time soon. And it will be horrific. IMO, to be hopeful is to be complacent.

Others that are like me that support me. The empaths specifically. They give me hope. They want to heal in a hurting world and it is hurting more now than ever and i think this is just the beginning.

I saw a bumper sticker:

SINCE I GAVE UP HOPE
I FEEL BETTER

Nice, i like that.

Finding true love.
In the meantime doing what good I can in the world.

and it isn't a lot of threads that are posted on this board of opinions by experts.

My dogs. My dogs have given me hope many times in the last 23 years of my life. You can be in the worst mood and take a look at them and things they do and you can't help but smile.

When I take them for a walk and they run with wild abandon like the world is wonderful.

I adopted this little tiny supposed long-haired chihuahua some years ago, 8-1/2 years. He only lived 3-1/2. He should haven't lived that long. He was pathetic looking. He had a crooked neck and he also had a heart defect, which eventually killed him. I remember taking him for his first walk and he stopped and looked back at me like "Is this for real? Is this really my life now?"

cl2notloggedin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I adopted this little tiny supposed long-haired
> chihuahua some years ago, 8-1/2 years. He only
> lived 3-1/2. He should haven't lived that long.
> He was pathetic looking. He had a crooked neck
> and he also had a heart defect, which eventually
> killed him. I remember taking him for his first
> walk and he stopped and looked back at me like "Is
> this for real? Is this really my life now?"

:D

Wonderful story, c12. :)

[About twenty years ago we rescued a street cat off of a sidewalk in Studio City, and his reaction was similar. RIP, Ari--you were a loving, and most excellent, feline addition to our family.]

been given a second chance. The 2 I have now are brothers and they were left at the side of the road in a kennel. A deputy found them. It took one of them almost 3 years to realize he was really HOME.

Your story also made me cry.

cl2notloggedin Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> been given a second chance. The 2 I have now are
> brothers and they were left at the side of the
> road in a kennel. A deputy found them. It took
> one of them almost 3 years to realize he was
> really HOME.

Ahhhh....I'm so glad he finally did realize he was truly home.


> Your story also made me cry.

:)

They are often so vulnerable, and so sincerely grateful for warmth, and food, and good water, and--at last!--safety.

Animals have been such a welcome sign of normalcy, because they just don't know. I've enjoyed watching the groudhogs and rabbits in my back forest finding mates. I'm looking forward to seeing all of the little baby animals in another month or so.

I love your story about your chihuahua. My cat was a "throwaway" as well. When a neighborhood family moved, they just put him out like they were putting out the trash. He spent about 3-4 days living outside, with an occasional meal from some kind neighbors. When I took him in, he was so excited when he realized he was about to be fed!

summer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My cat was
> a "throwaway" as well. When a neighborhood family
> moved, they just put him out like they were
> putting out the trash. He spent about 3-4 days
> living outside, with an occasional meal from some
> kind neighbors. When I took him in, he was so
> excited when he realized he was about to be fed!

Rescue pets are the best.
They realize that it could be a hell of a lot worse and are grateful for everything. Or so it seems.
My daughter got a little rescue dog, she left behind when she up and joined the military. He's the greatest, always happy to play, or cuddle, or go for a walk.

I'll have to check with NdGT and get back to you.

Best response. But I wonder what Richard er, I mean Sir David would answer?

He's too busy killing the planet to think about it....what with him being human and all.

That your posts will be about Corona and not God.

Its difficult after so many years looking for hope in prayer. The only thing give me strainght (maybe can give you hope) its music.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiZZs5ri00w

I hope you can find it

Nice, but not easy to dance to.

Miguel Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Its difficult after so many years looking for hope
> in prayer. The only thing give me strainght (maybe
> can give you hope) its music.
>
> https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QiZZs5ri00w
>
> I hope you can find it

Cool, yeah me too.
I'm not hopeless, at all.
I am not an nihilist, even though I agree with Nietzsche in a lot of ways. I was a Nihilist for about a year after 9-11-01. And I still am in alot the same ways as Nietzsche, who to me was like the ultimate Zen Master, ascetic Monk. But I temper that because it's a lonely path to walk and a hard path that kept me confined to a deep dark hole.
I had to get out of that hole for my own sake, and for the sake of my children and grandchildren.
So a grabbed for the closest thing to hope around me, which was a quote by Gandhi, "Be the Change You want to see in the world." which gave me a lot of hope and shed a lot of light and purpose on the subject of life. Be the Change.
And that led to another quote of his that has given me a lot of hope in the past 19 years,
"Live every day as though it will be your last day on Earth
and learn every day as though you will live forever."

That gave me purpose, hope and meaning to my life, live in the here and now. Which is still applicable.

What gives me hope now is like people above have said, "My dog, my fiance, my daughter, my sons, my Mom, my Sister, my friends, my community." Not necessary in that order.
But what gives me the most hope is knowing that life on Earth has been experiencing it's ups and downs for the past 3.5 Billion Years, but in that time, nothing was so destructive that it wiped out life completely. No matter how bad it got, there was still life. It didn't always look exactly like us, but the last time the Earth was here on this side of the Milky Way, (225 million years ago) we were some kind of a tiny weasel that lived underground. Now look at us, we've got computers and we're sending Tesla convertables to outer space.
To me, the future is bright with potential and I want to be a part of it. I think this country, this world will survive this, although it'll be though, but we'll figure out a cure and better yet, the prevention.
It seems obvious to me what the prevention is,
It's working in Washington, which started out as the epicenter.

Well, I live in a lockdown area, and other than a handful of idiots most people are behaving decently. We're not in Mad Max territory yet. I'm more concerned about the police and the government overreach than other members of the public just now.

Covivial Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Well, I live in a lockdown area, and other than a
> handful of idiots most people are behaving
> decently. We're not in Mad Max territory yet. I'm
> more concerned about the police and the government
> overreach than other members of the public just
> now.

I do too. I live where it started out as the epicenter of the pandemic in the US, but as it turns out, we just found out the first Covid 19 deaths were in CA, not WA.
We've done a great job at flattening the curve here, and UW Models show it will be relatively safe to re-open businesses in Mid May here, fortunately.
But realistically, like in 1918, when the stay at home orders were lifted at the end of WWI, everybody went out in the streets and celebrated, which is when the Spanish Flu came back with a vengeance and killed over half a million in the US alone. Millions world wide.

Unfortunately, flattening the curve extends the epidemic, and leaves more people vulnerable for infection later. As the CDC head said, we could have second wave of covid on top of influenza this winter.

In other words, we shouldn't have flattened the curve so much.

But whatever, the gods of government certainly know best, so have faith, and be obedient.

> In other words, we shouldn't have flattened the
> curve so much.

That is incorrect. Over 40,000 Americans died even with the isolation measures. If the curve were flattened less, the harm would have been greater.

The objective is to keep the demand curve below the supply curve until a vaccine becomes available. Letting demand rise higher relative to supply of hospital care simply means more deaths before that solution is devised.

Nor is it clear that less or no restrictions would have forestalled a second or third wave. Those waves materialized in 1918 and 1919, with no interruption of the process of gaining herd immunity; and there are indications that recovering from COVID-19 confers only limited immunity.

I'm one of the most impatient people I know but I'm starting to see some light at the end the tunnel.

Crisis? What Crisis?

(with apologies to the sick & survivors of friends & family)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 07:39PM by GNPE.

GNPE Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Crisis? What Crisis?
>
> (with apologies to the sick & survivors of friends
> & family)

Are you in Idaho?

Human adaptability has a million years behind it.

So far, knock on wood, my plan to live forever is on track.

Just stick with the Dos Equis rather than the Corona.

Stay thirsty, my friend.