A University of Washington model predicts the earliest safe reopening for each state. The modelers state that this should just be regarded as a sketch, not a firm prediction. They caution that reopenings should be gradual, with (for instance) a continuing ban on large crowds.

The earliest predicted reopening is for the weeks of May 4th and May 11th, and includes Idaho, Montana, North Carolina, West Virginia, Vermont, and New Hampshire.

Utah and Arizona are predicted to be June 8th or later.

Florida's prediction is June 1st. Georgia's is June 8th or later. Good luck to them.

https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/health/uw-coronavirus-model-says-washington-state-can-start-safely-reopening-the-week-of-may-18/

Georgia's Governor is an idiot. He's opening some businesses on Friday, most others, the following Monday. Including, gyms, salons, restaurants, massage therapists and tattoo shops. What could go wrong? It's asinine, irresponsible and borderline criminal.

Unfortunately, some people need to learn the hard way. I just pray that Georgians and Floridians don't drive north on Rt. 95. This is the time of year when the snowbirds start heading home. Although given how New York is looking right now, they might just stay put.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/2020 05:48PM by summer.

The Georgia decision is about kicking people (mostly low-income, non-white, non-Republicans) off unemployment because the fund is running out. The state gave themselves a constitutional amendment a while back that makes it very difficult to raise taxes, and it's political suicide for a Republican to raise taxes, especially if the money will be spent on "those people."

Florida is the same way. Their unemployment system is the worst in the country. Many people (not low income) are denied benefits that the Feds say they deserve. The CEO's of both Disney and Delta have had conversations with the Governor and the President regarding this. Those Governors and their administrations are inept. There's a lot of Federal funds that both Georgia and Florida are not distributing those funds.

There's frankly not that much money available.

Payments to lower and middle class people are absurdly low and difficult to obtain. The relatively small dollops of cash set aside for small and medium-sized companies run out very quickly because the conditions are set to allow the Shake Shack and other publicly-traded--for which, read: they can raise their own money in financial markets and don't need concessionary access to public money--firms as well as Harvard and other well-endowed entities to tap those funds. Who do you think will be first to the trough: Mom-and-Pop retailers and restaurants or wealthy and well-lawyered corporations?

The state governments may be incompetent, but primary responsibility for the lack of available finance lies in Washington. There the big bucks are sent to big corporations like the airlines, which are now balking at taking public money because they think it unfair to limit CEO compensation at $450,000 per annum and they think a 1% interest rate too high. And it is in the national capital that the rescue packages for small businesses and poor people are designed to save politically influential public companies.

that the states can't is print/create more money.

I’ve been following their models. IMO, the Utah model is dead on IF people continue to follow health advisories and social distancing.

We’ve all got Spring Fever, but now is not the time to regress on the progress we’ve made in flattening the curve by pretending we’ve got Covid-19 whipped!

The Maryland/Virginia/Washington D.C. prediction seems accurate to me because we haven't peaked yet. Numbers are still rising. And Maryland has a stay at home order, with everyone venturing out of their neighborhoods to shop for necessities mandated to wear face masks.

You also have a greater concentration of people...Very best wishes, Summer!

To you as well, Boner!

I've been following worldometers;

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

One key to pay attention to (besides cases and deaths) is "Tests per million/population. You'll see some States like Texas, Florida, and others are woefully unprepared for testing. So, their cases are not reported. Utah is doing a good job. We are testing at 3-4 times the rate per million as Texas, Georgia, etc. We are no where near coming out of this. We can't even gauge where we are today, much less 3 weeks from now. Keep staying inside. Listen to the doctors and disease experts, not idiot politicians.

One of the local radio station's eye-in-the-sky traffic helicopter reported that it looks like a Saturday morning, because of the crowd at the course he was flying over.

I love me some golf, but I'll wait a bit until the herd thins.

There was no mention of whether there is a rule that carts cannot be shared by strangers... Would I want to ride side by side with a stranger for 4.5 hours?

County courses in SL County are open. Strict rules. NOTHING is open. No restaurants, proshops, restrooms inside, cart barn. nothing. They don't even give you a scorecard or pencil. No cart or club rentals. Just walk. Make tee times and pay online only. Stay in your car until they text you that you're up. They have the holes filed with a foam, like a pool noodle, so you count your ball in when it hits the foam. No removing the flags. Some city courses are renting carts, but only one player per cart. I've played 3 times in the past 2 weeks. Everyone seems to be doing a good job of keeping plenty of distance.

BTW- Did you see where Tom Brady was kicked out of a closed Tampa park this morning? Wanted to do a workout routine but was sent home.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/2020 07:23PM by stillanon.

insanity!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is very disturbing to me. I live in TN 25 miles north of the GA border. In addition, TN is now opening up. Sigh... There is no rational reason health wise to do this. It is strictly political in my opinion. The rate of infections is still rising here. It makes no sense to me.

You're right. It's political. I know this board isn't supposed to get political, but this is a global pandemic. Both the Florida and Georgia governors owe their election to Trump. Both won by super slim margins after Trump came to their states and stumped for them. Trump has based his entire reelection on the economy. Many people overlooked his crass, rude and ignorant behavior due to a strong economy.Now that economy is in the dumps. Trump's looking at his reelection chances slipping away. So, he's enlisting his sycophants to open up businesses to get things rolling before November 3rd. What some of these Governors are doing is criminal. They are putting their citizens lives in jeopardy in order to please the President. We, Americans, in many states are not as important as some people's reelection. History will not reflect kindly for many that will sacrifice our lives for profits and prosperity. These early openings will come back to bite them, but only after many lives are lost unnecessarily. Like I said, listen to the medical experts that don't work for politicians.

“Trump's looking at his reelection chances slipping away.”

You think he could lose to Biden? He doesn’t strike me as a guy who needs to win. I would suppose he’d rather not due to being tired of being a puppet on a string. But the show must go on. He deserves an Oscar.

In the interest of not being political, although religion is basically politics for poor people, I wonder if there really is something to the Book of Revelation. Babylon is fallen, is fallen. What is an end but a new beginning?

The politicians are 'taking action' by opening as quickly as they can, and telling themselves that those who want to be more cautious can do so, and thus both sides are served.

Because serving the people is what politicians do!

One problem. If people that want to be more cautious, follow doctor's advice and try to be smart, that goes out the window if they have a job where they have to work in close quarters. Politicians serve themselves.

I'm told that any politician with even a hint of brains knows that his primary focus in office is to get reelected.

Shocking!!

Nice, fast food places are getting completely bogged down right now and is causing them to run out of food. It will help when normal restaurants are opened up.


Anyways, remember that time that you talked about that 'Dune' movie to me. Well i watched it yesterday and it was one of the strangest movies that i had ever seen. Had some good lines though about making changes so you can grow.

To understand the movie you really really really need to read the book.

I am, works in a building that is quite close quarters, but they keep distance. They wear masks and they have their temp taken. Only 2 people have been sent home. One guy for a slight fever and his mother who also works there. They were quarantined for 2 weeks and never had the virus. Another one of his coworkers was exposed through his wife's work. He also tested negative. They also wear something over their hair. The are using some kind of computer equipment to make circuit boards and my boyfriend is one of the chemists.

My husband also works around a lot of people. He works at the HOSPITAL. No cases in the employees at the hospital.

My son works in a restaurant that is doing takeout right now. He is a manager and head cook. No one at his job has gotten sick.

We have 53 cases in the area of the state we live in.

We have never been completely shut down. We don't have movies or restaurants and school is at home. Golf courses and walking paths have been open all along.

I may still get it. Who knows. If I didn't already have it. We are waiting for the antibody tests as I was extremely ill for 7 weeks. I've said it before. I've never been sick like that before. Half the problem was that it took me that long to recover from the extreme fatigue. And my daughter, SIL, son, and boyfriend all were sick, too. WE all got sick before it became BIG news.

My daughter's job has been effected EXTREMELY up there in Alaska, although so far she still has a job.

If the number of people who work with my boyfriend can make it this long and not get anyone infected, I'd say the chances are pretty good that people can go back to work. My daughter, not so much, but she isn't on the cruise ships. She is a manager of transpo at one of the lodges by Denali. They aren't having a season.

I listened to this guy on TV with my boyfriend and, again, I, myself, didn't agree with him.

There are so many people with opinions. I listen to TV half the day while I'm working and I hear a lot of them. Nobody knows anything for sure AND we've seen other opinions already posted on this board and none of them agree with each other. I thought all the deaths were going to happen after the peak in mid May and the deaths would happen mid June to into July. That was the first video I saw posted here. So now we are supposed to believe these guys. Nope. I'll ride out the storm and be careful and not buy into any of these opinions.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/2020 11:09PM by cl2.

Everybody has opinions, including yours truly, and we certainly like to spout them off.

What is important (and what a lot of us don't do) is weighing the importance of the opinion given based upon the expertise of the person on the subject on which he is giving his/her opinion. For example, I would defer to Dr. Fauci and Dr. Berks on whether and when it is okay to return to our old habits, over those of Sean Hannity and Tucker Carlson, simply because of their expertise in health matters, an expertise not shared by Mr. Hannity or Mr. Carlson.

Unfortunately, our willingness to give creedence to non-expert opinions is based partially on 1) whether or not we emotionally agree with those opinions; and 2) the fact that the vast majority of us were trained at an early age to support non-expert opinions when they agreed with our own or our emotions. And, for that, religions, including Mormonism, can take a good chunk of the blame!

This is the time for the cool hand of caution to prevail. Opening too early will backfire on us and it could put us right back to square one, or worse.
My husband has an appointment for cataract surgery in September, and our son told him that he will need to be tested for Covid-19 when he arrives for the appointment. If he tests positive, no surgery, obviously.
The doctor feels that we will get hit hard with the virus in the Fall or winter a second time, because of opening too early.

I have a particular fear of churches opening too early, especially the mormon church where sacrament water is delivered in the most heinous trough of backwash and pathogens imaginable. As an active member, I thought it was repugnant and waved it past often enough to be eyed as a holy-ghost offender or God blasphemer, thief or prostitute.

And that crowded back row where people watch the clock and the back door with equal intensity, and wear out their sleeves rubbing against the person packed in on either side--close enough to get a continuous waft of deodorant on polyester--and next, a waft of COVID 19.

I just had a flashback to “Osmosis Jones”.

So aren't we all at risk until there is a vaccine and cure?

Didn't the 1918 flu pandemic end only after everyone who was exposed either died or recovered?

Evergreen, I'm no expert, but from what I've read, the one and only thing that made the 1918 pandemic peter out was that people stayed home. It ran out of hosts.

No one really knows why it died out.

I don't think staying home really helped since the second and more deadly wave came in October 1918, weeks before the end of the war. The armistice in November resulted in the movement of tens of millions of people as starving and impoverished refugees began the long walk home. What is intriguing is the fact that by December, while people were still moving in huge numbers, the volume of deaths had fallen off sharply.

If self-isolation and social distancing were not the answer, perhaps the virus mutated into less virulent strains--something which often happens with such diseases. That is probably the best hope for an early end to the COVID-19 crisis.

It’s like hoping the in-laws will decide they want to leave rather than move in.

This model is absurd because it ignores the obvious differences between urban and rural areas. Within almost all States the dates can be vwry different for rural areas and urban areas.

Excellent observation.

And we have such precise testing data that we can intelligently differentiate between the dangerous areas and the safe ones. And we all know that people in one county never visit the counties next door because of the walls between them. Why didn't all those stupid scientists with their stupid expertise in subjects like epidemiology figure that out?

Absurd!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 04:41AM by Lot's Wife.

The issue of travel between urban and rural areas would be a major factor. Even testing would not necessarily completely alleviate it.
Potentially infected people could travel back and forth before being tested and spread infection. One would need rapid testing at the county line on everybody crossing to prevent spread.

And if people can be contagious before the test is positive, then spread from area to area would be impossible.

Should be stopping spread would be impossible.
I need to go to sleep.

People from neighboring counties do visit each other, yes. Even when those counties are in different states.

That is why this national problem required a consistent national strategy formulated and implemented by a capable national leader like in Germany or New Zealand.

But the US got the political equivalent of Joe Exotic.