COVID-19 deaths
AZ 208
CO 486
UT 32

Population (approx.)
AZ 7.2 million
CO 5.7 million
UT 3.2 million

Why are Colorado deaths 15x higher than Utah deaths?
I don't get it?
Colorado had some infections from Europeans at ski resorts (Aspen, Vail, Breckenridge etc).
But Utah also has world class ski resorts and people travel to Utah also.
Colorado has more dark-skinned people (Blacks, Hispanics, native Americans etc). I don't think that would make much difference.

Did the Saints in Utah pray more often and harder than other places?
Did prayers in LDS temples offer a cloak of protection over the state of Utah?
Did large numbers of Utahns fasting have some protective value to Utah?
Does Utah fail to properly count the actual deaths? (and thus the numbers are bogus?)

. . . . . very mysterious

Utah population is the youngest in the nation. And by age generally healthier than average. Third, I suspect density has a contribution, Utah cities aren't as tightly packed, yet.

Summit County, which gets the most tourist skiers, has a pretty high rate of infection.

Your quick analysis may have merit.
Here's some statistics:

Density per square mile (not entire metro area):
Denver 4,530/sq mi
SLC 1,744/sq mi
. . and if you take all of Salt Lake county with sprawling suburbs: 1.1 million (1/3 of UT) and 1,388/sq mi

Utah has the highest birth rate, so I guess this shouldn't be too shocking:
Age 40+
CO 55.3%
UT 35.7%
big difference

. . . and Utah has a whopping 29.5% under age 18 !
CO 22.2% under 18 - USA ave 22.4%

Suspicious accounting. From mostly Red states. West Virginia has the highest percentage of smokers in the US. Really think they only have 26 deaths? For an entire month, it was almost impossible to get tested in many states, Utah included. People that died weren't tested and weren't counted. A lot of cases attributed to pneumonia. Read this from CA;

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/us/california-deaths-earliest-in-us/index.html

A lot of Red State governors didn't want to upset Trump and clamor for testing like other states that did and got test kits. A lot of people that dies were never tested and counted. Really think Florida only has 893 deaths from a population 21 million? But, we're going to see higher returns and spikes now that some of these same states are reopening this week. Including restaurants, gyms, tattoo parlors and nail salons. States that got an early handle on "the curve" by closing businesses and issuing stay at home orders are now killing those orders and reopening early. Absolutely asinine. Some state's Department of Health's aren't issuing orders to funeral homes to test dead people. They die at home, get sent to a funeral home and they are buried or cremated without knowing the true cause of deaths. I'm betting that Utah's count is about as accurate as the church's 16.5 million members count.

I have been tracking the total deaths in the U.S. and a few days ago the numbers shifted. CNN and the CDC don't correlate. Not sure what is happening there but it appears that the numbers we are getting are not entirely accurate.

Just my 2 cents.

. . . so Trump wants the daily death number to slow to a trickle, but that may not happen because all states should now have tests for severely sick people in the hospital, and also potential testing of bodies (autopsy).

Many numbers from Feb and March are probably bogus.
And how accurate are April numbers anyway?
They really need more accurate numbers to figure out what's really going on . . .

Some states probably underreporting a lot more than other states.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 02:56PM by mrx.

>>West Virginia has the highest percentage of smokers in the US. Really think they only have 26 deaths?

The lower numbers in West Virginia didn't surprise me. The state has a mountainous, remote quality to it. It lacks the major north/south interstate 95 that links the states of the eastern seaboard. And most east/west traffic is going to go on I70/76 to the north through Ohio and Pennsylvania.

Fewer smokers might be a factor?

I don't believe the deaths have all been investigated consistently. A lot of people were never tested.

Didn’t I tell you the light of Christ was the vaccine?

I think there is probably under or over reporting everywhere.

They decided in NY a few days back that there were a lot of people dying from heart attacks, a lot more than usual, so they added a bunch of those deaths to the total COVID-19 deaths jsut because, not because they tested all those who died. There is not any way you can get completely accurate numbers.

I asked my boyfriend, again, why CO has so many more deaths and cases as that is where he lived for 18 years before coming here and his son and DIL live there. He said because CO has so many more people.

Utah also had some people who traveled here and had the virus and died from Summit County, which is where Park City is. Most of Idaho deaths have come from Sun Valley area.

Most of Utah has been testing for a while now. Logan has several places you can get an ordered test or there is one just because you want one. Yet still in Cache, Rich, and Box Elder counties we have 53 total cases (maybe a few more today). One death of a man in this area (Bear River Region) who was on a senior mission out of state.

Elective surgeries are starting soon. I have 2 cataracts I need removed ASAP.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 03:55PM by cl2.

cl2, I think we have a lot in common.
I am a court reporter, which means my days are much like yours, listening and taking things down.

I haven't had a job since March 5th. I can't hold out much longer.

I had cataract surgery the last day you COULD have "elective" surgery in my area.

As I am sure many people have told you, it was a piece of cake, except for the underlying diabetic retinopathy. Oh, well.

In my profession and your profession we just HAVE to see.

I will be thinking of you.
Lois

I've had more work than I thought I'd have as one of my old jobs came looking for help about 6 weeks ago. My newer job hasn't had much work with everything shut down. I don't understand why this other job has more work. I'm grateful, but I'm also on SS.

I typed up cataract surgeries for years, so I know what they do. Not looking forward to it. My sister had 2 out last June.

I think court reporting sounds like an interesting job. I've thought about that doing that years ago, but never did try it out. I hope you have work soon.

numbers are low. The only socializing mormons do is church oriented.

What about Wyoming? Why aren't you asking about Wyoming's numbers or Idaho's numbers?

The mormons who live by me are STAYING HOME completely. Very few are even driving anywhere. I go more than any of my neighbors do.

I don't think most mormons socialize UNLESS it is church oriented.

Hey, what about Alaska. Are their numbers so low because my TBM daughter and SIL are camped out in a hotel room and probably fasted?

Really, what can be said for WYOMING? Ever been there?

THIS WAS SUPPOSED TO BE AT THE BOTTOM.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 10:07PM by cl2.

...because mormons fasted!!!

Woe be unto you who have hardened your hearts and preach against Joe, Jr and his prophetic successor, Russell Milhous Nelson (HA-ha!)!!





Obviously I'm not of this opinion, but I know who is!

Russell Milhous Nelson. . .

I love the allusion but wonder whether it is to Milhouse Van Houton or to Richard Milhous Nixon. Both would work--the former indicating the prophet's juvenile character and behavior, the latter his devious but ultimately feckless leadership.

So which is it, EOD? Are you making a Simpsons-based joke or beating the dead horse that is our beloved former president?

Or is it the third possible interpretation: is your middle name Milhaus?

I was thinking of Tricky Dick, with the Milhous.

And also from the Simpson's is the HA-ha! following the "Nelson".

But nobody seems to have gotten that, dang it. But it's almost totally an audible clue, not a written one.

When the President of the Church does it, it’s not stupid.

We've been lied to from beginning to end of this crisis. Governments' main aim is to prevent social collapse. Both the Chinese and Iranians lied about their casualty figures, and other countries such as Germany and the UK have used creative accounting to pin deaths on other causes. China is also lying about how the epidemic started. Russia has a few secrets too.

It looks like the US has gone down the same route.

In a few months' time, we will be finding dead people at home, people no one noticed were missing.

Utah is an expert in giving out untrue numbers. They only report numbers that help them. They are probably counting dogs that died and will claim they looked in the wrong column.

It depends on who is keeping score.
Some will report a death as covid without actually confirming the cause. Coulda been pneumonia, flu, or any other respiratory distress, but since we have a “covid” box to put an x in, okay. Saves them from more work. And it gets the reporting facility a bit more money as I understand it.
Others will check off a different box, if they want to appear to be better at covid cures.

In other word, the statistics are unreliable...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 07:26PM by csuprovograd.

We have 66 deaths on 3000 cases in a population of 4 million here in Alberta. 2 meat packing plants that supply 80 percent of Canada's beef and are staffed b5 mostly imported workers are accounting for daily spikes in case counts. Both plants are on pause...leading to fears we'll have a beef shortage.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 09:47PM by Lethbridge Reprobate.

I think it is interesting that everyone thinks Utah is fudging numbers. Why all the attention on Utah?

I still don't get why nobody focuses on Wyoming if they do so much on Utah. Wyoming has 2 deaths? Alaska has about 6 or 9 or something.

Utah has one big city area that stretches from Ogden to the end of Utah Valley. St. George isn't all that big, although is a lot bigger than it used to be.

Up North here, we are spread out. Logan is the biggest city up here. We still aren't on complete shut down like SLC has been. And we still only have about 53 cases up North.

Montana, 439 cases, 14 deaths. North Dakota 679 cases, 14 deaths. South Dakota 1858 cases--the new hot spot according to the news media recently--9 deaths.

I type for a hospital/clinics in a place in Montana. I typed up an 88 year old who beat the virus. I've typed several who tested positive. None who have died.

Texas 21,321 cases 556 deaths and Colorado 10891 cases and 506 deaths.

So with those last 2, why is Texas about the same number of deaths as CO and their population is 6 million and Texas has 29 million people. So why is CO so much higher. Are they lying about their numbers, too?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2020 10:17PM by cl2.

I cannot speak for others with any real authority, but my guess is that interest in Utah, whether in relation to COVID or to anything else, is high because so many of us have Utah roots even if we don't still live there and because Utah is somewhat the Mother Ship where our former religion is concerned. Whether the topic is politics, MLMs, or COVID, we'll wonder about it as it pertains to Utah.

I think it's just a case of Colorado peaking earlier than Utah.

Where are we going to peak as we add 2 or 3 every 5 days? Are we going to peak in December? We won't even be close to CO in numbers if we peaked in December.

I guess Alaska will peak in the year 2030 at this rate.

There just has to be a BIG NUMBER in order for the state to have peaked.

Wyoming will peak in the year 3000.

Conspiracy theories:

"Does Utah fail to properly count the actual deaths? (and thus the numbers are bogus?)"

"Suspicious accounting. From mostly Red states."

". . . so Trump wants the daily death number to slow to a trickle" [should we hope it rises?]



Pick what your want to believe - cases underreported? Or cases overreported?

Doctor and state senator discusses reporting of corona deaths to CDC by doctors, and how the rules are ridiculous. And how much money from medicare for corona patients.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_qWmiWf81zI


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

quote
In very crude terms, this means that around nine per cent of confirmed coronavirus patients have died in Italy, compared to four per cent in China. By this measure Germany, which has so far identified 28,865 cases and 118 deaths, has a fatality rate of just 0.4 per cent.

So why the disparity?

According to Prof Walter Ricciardi, scientific adviser to Italy’s minister of health, the country’s mortality rate is far higher due to demographics - the nation has the second oldest population worldwide - and the manner in which hospitals record deaths.

“The age of our patients in hospitals is substantially older - the median is 67, while in China it was 46,” Prof Ricciardi says. “So essentially the age distribution of our patients is squeezed to an older age and this is substantial in increasing the lethality.”

But Prof Ricciardi added that Italy’s death rate may also appear high because of how doctors record fatalities.

“The way in which we code deaths in our country is very generous in the sense that all the people who die in hospitals with the coronavirus are deemed to be dying of the coronavirus.

“On re-evaluation by the National Institute of Health, only 12 per cent of death certificates have shown a direct causality from coronavirus, while 88 per cent of patients who have died have at least one pre-morbidity - many had two or three,” he says.

UT should be renamed, South Idaho, which was one of the least affected states (54 deaths).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/23/2020 05:08PM by schrodingerscat.

schrodingerscat Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> UT should be renamed, South Idaho, which was one
> of the least affected states (54 deaths).


Correction: “BAJA IDAHO”, please...

A small nod to the age when Mexico went a bit further north.

Figuring out how many people are infected with CV-19 is a lot like trying to figure out how many people resign from LDS Inc each year. Well, not quite that bad. There is at least a report of confirmed infections.

However, whether an infection ever gets confirmed or not depends heavily on how much testing is being done, and what is the criterion for testing. This varies widely from state to state. Furthermore, not even all people who die from what could have been CV-19 are tested to find out if that is what they died from. Test kits may be in such short supply that they don't want to use a kit on someone who has already died, so the information won't do the deceased a damn bit of good. Better to save it for the living.

That means that often the cause of death will be a guess, and it could go either way. CV-19 deaths might be overcounted, or undercounted.

There is one number that is quite reliable, even between different states. Total number of deaths over time. Governments are quite good at keeping track of dead people, and keep meticulous records. The number of deaths in a given month and state varies very little, year over year. Some months have higher death rates than others, but if you compare, say, January to January, the rates are very stable. The timing of a bad flu season may vary some year to year, but usually only by a few weeks.

NYC had a huge spike in deaths last month (March), roughly double the normal rate. That's not just a statistical wobble. Something serious changed, and that was CV-19.

I don't know what the overall death rate in Utah was last month, but I do know a couple MDs. They have been holding their breath waiting for the shoe to drop, and so far it hasn't dropped. They have some COVID-19 cases, and life is pretty busy at the hospitals, but it is not desperate. My takeaway is that the Utah numbers of CV-19 deaths is probably accurate. If there was a large spike in deaths, whether they were attributed to CV-19 or not, the hospital staffs would have noticed.

The major infection centers (SLC and Park City) shut down early, and also, unlike the Colorado resorts, and Sun Valley, ID, the Utah resorts are close enough to the city, that quit a few visitors don't stay at the resorts, and instead do airbnb in the city, especially near the mouths of the canyons. That probably avoided the infection hotspots seen in CO and ID, and to some extent in Park City. The visitors to the SLC resorts are more spread out, and the cities locked down early.

In CA, the SF Bay area locked down two days before the LA area did. The SF infection rate went up by a factor of 4 in the weeks after the lockdown, while the infection rate in LA, went up by a factor of 10, even though the LA area has a much lower population density than SF. And note that both areas had relatively low infection rates, but it illustrates how quickly exponential infection rates can get away from you. Literally, hours make a difference in the early growth of a hotspot.

Long story short - Utah has more testing than the average state, locked down sooner than a lot of states, and the numbers are probably an accurate reflection of how Utah compares with other states, even if there is a sizable error in the number of infections and deaths.

BoJ,

I don't think there is any chance that deaths have been overstated. The United States still hasn't recognized that the illness was well-established in late January.

I was looking at data a week or so ago and saw a national spike in very intense influenza in December and January, which is unusual both in terms of frequency and severity. Dollars to Krispy Kremes, which I know are your favorite, a chunk of those illnesses were COVID.

We know now that in Maryland, we had at least two CV-19 deaths in February, a good month before our state went into high alert.

Because Mormons follow religious guidelines that make them healthier?

I thought the numbers were only based on people that mattered to the rest of the world. Surprised the numbers are so high in Utah.