One of the ironies of recent months has been the "Road to Damascus" conversion of conservative Americans to the advantages of Swedish government. The decision not to impose social distancing and masking requirements, the born-agains tell us, was the right way to go. Sweden would achieve herd immunity while avoiding significant economic disruption.

But the worm turns. Last week Sweden, with a population of ten million, saw over 2,000 deaths from COVID-19--roughly the same number as the United States with its 330 million people. If my math is correct, that implies a current rate of fatalities that is 33 times higher than in the USA, which accords with the 30-35X predicted by the new epidemiological models publicized last week.

And how about herd immunity? Has Sweden managed to achieve that? According to Sweden's Public Health Authority, the answer is a definitive "no." The percentage of the population that has antibodies against the disease is 7%, about the same as in countries that imposed SIP orders and have therefore experienced much lower fatality rates. 2,000 Swedish experts have now publicly demanded that the government reverse course and impose restrictions rather than continuing to endure super-normal death rates for no reason at all.

It thus transpires that all those fuzzy-thinking, conspiratorial scientists in the United States and other countries were right, and the armed "patriots" protesting in state capitols and screaming at nurses were wrong. Who would have guessed?


https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-plan-is-a-cruel-mistake-skeptical-experts-say-2020-5

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/21/2020 04:20PM by Lot's Wife.

Those pesky scientists who want to base decisions on facts instead of what people would like to believe. Reminds me of a religion that I'm familiar with that wants to base everything on "feelings".

That is why this sort of topic is relevant to the recovery from Mormonism. In some cases the magical thinking survives far longer than the religious affiliation.

Excellent point. I have long said everything relates to moism. I was kind of kidding at first but it ends up being accurate.

Nightingale Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Excellent point. I have long said everything
> relates to moism. I was kind of kidding at first
> but it ends up being accurate.

You know what people in the Balkans say when you tell them you are an atheist? "Yes, but what kind of atheist are you? Are you a catholic atheist, an orthodox atheist or a muslim atheist?"

Having moved from Venice to Marrakesh to Hanoi I definitely understand that. In all three places, most of the people I befriended were atheists. But their atheism has a different background, a different vibe. Mormon atheists have yet another vibe than buddhist and muslim ones.

It's interesting you would put it that way. Graham Greene said much the same thing; he said "I am an agnostic, but a Catholic agnostic."

That formulation gives credence to the cultural complexes that subsume religions.

I wish citizens could be wise enough to social distance by choice rather than by government coercion. That's the great aim of America to have a society with systems that makes possible it's citizens to make moral choices rather than having an oligarchy and nobility impose culture and laws on everyone whether they like it or not, the historical situation in France, Spain, Italy.

The question naturally arises what freedoms are worth dying for. For me I support social distancing protocols and follow governor Hurbert. This isn't a injustice worth fighting at present. I'd rather stay alive.

It would appear they want to risk dying from the virus or die in a gunfight, fighting for the right to risk dying from the virus.

Hmmmmmm.

When I heard about the Swedish herd, I wondered if the Michigan herd had heard. If they had heard, they probably said "I ain't heard nothin about no herd! I'm in gods herd and you ain't heard nothin until you heard god's word from god's herd!"

"Now excuse me, I heard my herd might catching a cold or the flu or somethin."

Yeah, but if it’s only old people dying ... ?

I’m hearing that the young are willing to pay the price!







I think I’m being I’m being silly, but there is apparently a significant wedge of the population pie that thinks it isn’t silly.

Wasn't it Nathan Hale who said, "my only regret is that I have but one life to give for the economy?"

That was taken out of context, fake history!

What he MEANT was "my only regret is that I have but one life to give for the wealthy."

You are too blunt for me, Roy. You know what a shrinking violet I am.

African or Beauregarde?

There are no good to die young anymore.

It's still up to us old geezers to do all the heavy lifting.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> One of the ironies of recent months has been the
> "Road to Damascus" conversion of conservative
> Americans to the advantages of Swedish government.
> The decision not to impose social distancing and
> masking requirements, the born-agains tell us, was
> the right way to go. Sweden would achieve herd
> immunity while avoiding significant economic
> disruption.
>
> But the worm turns. Last week Sweden, with a
> population of ten million, saw over 2,000 deaths
> from COVID-19--roughly the same number as the
> United States with its 330 million people. If my
> math is correct, that implies a current rate of
> fatalities that is 33 times higher than in the
> USA, which accords with the 30-35X predicted by
> the new epidemiological models publicized last
> week.
>

Your math isn't correct.
94,629 Covid Deaths in the US, not 2,000.


> And how about herd immunity? Has Sweden managed
> to achieve that? According to Sweden's Public
> Health Authority, the answer is a definitive "no."
> The percentage of the population that has
> antibodies against the disease is 7%, about the
> same as in countries that imposed SIP orders and
> have therefore experienced much lower fatality
> rates. 2,000 Swedish experts have now publicly
> demanded that the government reverse course and
> impose restrictions rather than continuing to
> endure super-normal death rates for no reason at
> all.
>
> It thus transpires that all those fuzzy-thinking,
> conspiratorial scientists in the United States and
> other countries were right, and the armed
> "patriots" protesting in state capitols and
> screaming at nurses were wrong. Who would have
> guessed?
>
>
> https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus
> -plan-is-a-cruel-mistake-skeptical-experts-say-202
> 0-5
>
> https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sweden-herd-
> immunity-coronavirus-intl/index.html


It's too early to call, but in the race for herd immunity, it appears Sweden is winning. The Prize for winning is far more of their population that is immune to the disease than they are in China, where the 2nd Wave is already starting and they wish they had the same antibody rate as Sweden.

> Last week Sweden, with a
> population of ten million, saw over 2,000 deaths

Last week.

My math was correct.

And you missed the point about herd immunity. Sweden has 7% "immunity," assuming antibodies confer immunity, which is basically the same as most other countries. So far, the verdict is that Sweden has achieved nothing but unnecessary deaths.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/21/2020 06:42PM by Lot's Wife.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My math was correct.
>
> And you missed the point about herd immunity.
> Sweden has 7% "immunity," assuming antibodies
> confer immunity, which is basically the same as
> most other countries. So far, the verdict is that
> Sweden has achieved nothing but unnecessary
> deaths.


I misread that. I thought you were saying that Sweden had as many deaths as the US.

Just that the weekly totals have converged. That may not continue, but the omens are unfavorable.

IMO Sweden's Covid response has logic but needed to be managed differently.
We knew early on that the chances of a fatal outcome were much higher in the elderly, the immunocompromised, and those with co-morbidities.
For most of the remainder, the disease is relatively mild, with a complication rate probably similar to the "flu".

So seems to me that the effort should be in protecting the most vulnerable by diverting the huge effort from the general population to the vulnerable population, while at the same time keeping the economy open, and allowing life to go on pretty much as normal.

Herd immunity will develop at around 60% infection rate I have read, and although Sweden's measured infection rate may be 7%, I would expect that in reality it is much higher, or else the CV is not nearly as infective as is thought.

outin76

The trouble I see with shielding the vulnerable population is that the vulnerable population still lives with young, in multi generational households. The younger people still need to go to work, or school. So there isn't much that can be done unless everyone has their own home, which isn't reality in the foreseeable future. There's not enough houses for 7 billion people.

Besides not being able to quarantine all old people, there's the pesky problem of co-morbidity. The co-mobidities we're talking about include diabetes, obesity, being male and obese, cardiovascular disease...this includes a lot of Americans!

Both articles sited said, respectively, "Sweden has said its strategy is not meant to achieve herd immunity." and "Authorities denied herd immunity was their goal."

I'm wondering, what exactly what was their goal?

The articles quote Swedish Professor Olle Kampe who said much of Sweden's approach was "'not based on facts.'"

and "'We are sacrificing old people and people with diseases,'" Kampe said.

He pointed to new things discovered about the virus, including young people experiencing blood clots and strokes and a new inflammatory syndrome that has killed at least four children.'"

Impactful words. I hope Swedish authorities wake up.

That point--the profound and multi-faceted complications that the disease brings--is important. COVID-19 isn't binary: between sick and recovered is a range of debilitating problems. It's not feasible to develop a nuanced policy response to the pandemic until those issues are understood.

As for the Swedish government "waking up," that could as well be said of Americans who minimize the disease. But for many, if not most, that will not happen, for the issue to them is not really health and safety.

Many won't even wake up to smoking. Maybe, "I can't breathe!" just doesn't resonate with some people.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/21/2020 08:31PM by kathleen.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> But the worm turns. Last week Sweden, with a
> population of ten million, saw over 2,000 deaths
> from COVID-19--roughly the same number as the
> United States with its 330 million people. If my
> math is correct, that implies a current rate of
> fatalities that is 33 times higher than in the
> USA, which accords with the 30-35X predicted by
> the new epidemiological models publicized last
> week.


I didn't see the 2k number (for last week) in the linked articles.

Thanks.

Yes, I read that in two articles yesterday.

I can't find them now, though, so people should take that number with a grain of salt. There are, however, several sources that put Sweden's death rate last week at the highest level in Europe or, according to a different source, in the world.

That fact, in combination with an antibody count of 7.3% of the populace--which is roughly what you see in France and Spain among other places--should be enough to conclude that the Swedish approach has failed.

Thanks for the fact check.




Highest in Europe:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-most-coronavirus-deaths-europe-per-capita-report-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-per-capita-death-rate-among-highest-2020-5



Highest in the world:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-swedens-death-toll-becomes-worlds-highest-per-capita/news-story/1e9f4fb4fdb0b013e9ea2f10e05aaa7d

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/30/coronavirus-sweden-economy-to-contract-as-severely-as-the-rest-of-europe.html

"In the first scenario (scenario A in the chart below), gross domestic product contracts by 6.9% in 2020 before rebounding to grow 4.6% in 2021. In a more negative prediction (scenario B), GDP could contract by 9.7% and a recovery could be slower with the economy growing 1.7% in 2021"

"Sweden’s neighbors Finland and Denmark, which also imposed lockdowns, are also expected to see their economies contract by 6% and 6.5%, respectively"

Yup. The Swedish government done f***ed up.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 02:03AM by Tevai.

I'm not sure where your figures came from, but according to
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
Sweden had about 500 deaths since May 13 to May 21. US had 12.4K. I'm pretty sure worldometers is the go-to site for up to date coronavirus stats.

As best as I can tell from a quick look, Sweden, with about 1/30th of the US population, has about 1/30th the number of new cases as the US, and about 1/30th the number of new deaths.

Not to imply that we are the bright shiny example of how to do things well re COVID-19! Sweden is doing poorly IMHO, but not horrid. I don't have the motivation at the moment to look up comparable weekly figures for some of the other European countries.

Brazil, OTOH, after getting off to a slow start on diagnosed COVID cases, is making up for lost time. It has 2/3rds the US population, and while the US curve is flattening, Brazil's is still rising sharply. They will probably surpass us in cases and deaths (per capita per day) in a few days. They may even pass us in absolute new cases and new deaths pretty soon. Youch! (edit: yesterday's new death figure in Brazil is already more than 2/3rds of the US figure, 1,100 vs 1,400. BTW, you should look at the "yesterday" totals at worldometer. Current day totals keep changing until midnight local time in whatever country, or so it seems to me. "Yesterday" tally is a final total for the day.)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 12:23AM by Brother Of Jerry.

Yes, I cannot find the source I (thought I) saw yesterday. And given that the Swedish total is about 3,500 overall, 2,000 in a single week seems highly improbable.

But as the articles cited above state, the rate of infections is higher than in neighboring countries--which are now imposing travel restrictions against Swedes--and the percentage of the populace with antibodies is still at 7.3%, which is approximately the average. That is why so many Swedish experts are now declaring the herd immunity strategy a failure and calling for the imposition of the standard package of SIP restrictions.

Brazil gives me great concern, as do Russia and a few other places experiencing alarming trends. We are clearly seeing a pandemic transform into an endemic. The odds are high that we'll see multiple waves over the coming months and then have to live with this like a high-powered flu in coming years. The economic consequences will be negative and chronic.

Tragic.

Even wannabe dictators require a certain amount of popular support. I think both Putin and Bolsonaro are skating on thin ice. Bolsonaro was doing pushups today to demonstrate that he has everything under control. Shades of Ernie Wilkinson.

Russia is seriously hurting for foreign exchange with oil prices in the dumper. While I think it unlikely, it is possible either country could come unglued. One of them has, I believe, a 5 digit stockpile of nukes. :-/

Agreed.

Putin is weaker now than in many years. He had hoped to extend his presidency for several more years but now looks incapable of pulling that off. The oil problem is also severe--unless he can persuade Trump to press Saudi Arabia to cut output to save the Russians.

Re: Putin
I'm guessing there is only the appearance of elections at this point. Besides, he'll kill off any real competitors who run against him.

I hope that is not the future of elections in the USA on the road we are currently going.

I wouldn't put anything past the current clown show in the White House.

Well this is embarrassing. Criticize people for their lack of facts while using completely wrong numbers. I just hit wikipedia and counted 211 deaths last week, not 2,000.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_in_Sweden

I googled Sweden Covid 19 deaths and it shows 3,871 total. 2,000 in one week makes no sense.

I guess if you look for the sources you want and make stuff up, you can confirm your beliefs.

"Those pesky scientists who want to base decisions on facts instead of what people would like to believe."

"Last week Sweden, with a population of ten million, saw over 2,000 deaths from COVID-19--roughly the same number as the United States with its 330 million people. If my math is correct, that implies a current rate of fatalities that is 33 times higher than in the USA, which accords with the 30-35X predicted by the new epidemiological models publicized last week."

"I didn't see the 2k number (for last week) in the linked articles"

"Yes, I read that in two articles yesterday.
I can't find them now, though, so people should take that number with a grain of salt. There are, however, several sources that put Sweden's death rate last week at the highest level in Europe or, according to a different source, in the world.
That fact,.........."

If you read the wikipedia link, you get multiple viewpoints. You learn that Sweden did not do nothing. There were restrictions, but as discussed, media exaggerated.
Interesting that LW and Trump agree strongly. From Wikipedia:
"Foreign news outlets often described Sweden as pursuing a herd immunity strategy.[54] This was echoed by US president Donald Trump, who in a press briefing told the assembled media that Sweden was 'suffering very greatly' due to what he referred to as 'the herd', and that the US, if it had not taken much stricter social distancing measures, 'would have lost hundreds of thousands more people'.[261][262] Responding partly to Trump's remarks, which she described by using the word ‘misinformation’, Swedish foreign minister Ann Linde said that the ‘so-called Swedish strategy’ was one of many myths about Sweden, and described it as ‘absolutely false’."

Anyway, if we cannot end the shutdown until nobody gets sick or dies, how long will we wait? Over 30 million unemployed, and how far will we go? We can't find a smarter way to protect the vulnerable?

It will be interesting to watch. I don't see the shutdown ending anytime soon. I was listening to this Stanford professor (who is doing serologic surveys) explain that the lockdowns do not eradicate disease, they only delay it. One of those "pesky scientists".
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=289NWm85eas

So as soon as you lift the restrictions, infections will just start up again.

Which means we can't compare deaths between less and more restricted countries until the epidemic is over to get the total counts. And you can't compare death rates at the same time because countries are at different points in the epidemic.

We were supposed to flatten the curve, which also means the curve is longer. Total cases and deaths the same, just spread more.

>We were supposed to flatten the curve, which also means the curve is longer. Total cases and deaths the same, just spread more.

Not necessarily. Flattening the curve buys time which gives the possibility of coming up with a cure or preventative measure. If that happens, then the total cases and deaths would be lower overall.

Will that happen with corona virus? We don't know. But slowing down the outbreak (flattening the curve) at least gives us the opportunity.

You deserved that lap :)

I think you milked it for all it’s worth!

CNN: Sweden is still nowhere near 'herd immunity'...

Maybe the mini baby boom caused by lockdown will offset deaths caused by Covid so the US will come out ahead.

There is no evidence that a mini baby boom is happening. I realize your comment was tongue in cheek, just saying...

In fact, 2020 is on track to be the first year in US history that the US population will decrease. And if 2020 doesn't get that distinction, 2021 almost certainly will.

And that demographic change, to which Japan and China and parts of Europe have already succumbed, signals trends with immense economic and political implications. . .



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 12:09PM by Lot's Wife.

We do not know the full extent of the global situation, yet..

That is the problem!

We do not know. Few in the world really do.

Our government have no say in the policy, it is the Public Health Agency of Sweden that call the shots. Our constitution have checks and balances that forbid the government to go against the recommendations of the health agency.

Our policy put focus on being reactive on empirical data and not proactive on theories. Other countries that have politicans that wants to make a point to show people they are doing things.

When the rest of the world opens up it will likely flame up again everywhere. The theories will then be tested. Sweden already did it. It was disaster per captia and likely it will be a disaster in countries that were proactive.

It is an pandemic and it is a disaster. A pandemic is merciless.

The virus is here to stay until a vaccine is available on the market.

I live in one of the suburbs to Stockholm and around 8 out of 10000 people die after being infected. Most of them lived in elderly care homes or were immigrants that worked in the service sector. Most of them drove cabs, they picked up affluent people who returned home from skiing-holidays in the swiss, austrian and italian alps.

A note.

The social status is not really important but it explains how it was spread and how people are interconnected in the swedish society. I do not put any values into if people were poor or rich. It was just an example how it was spread from the beginning.

This is all useful material.

Thank you.

No problem.

The minorities taking the hardest hit are the somali and the Sūrāyē/Sūrōyē (Syriacs, Arameans and Chaldeans.) The first group live in a housing area called the Million Programme.

Wikipedia: "The Million Programme (Swedish: Miljonprogrammet) is the common name for an ambitious public housing programme implemented in Sweden between 1965 and 1974 by the governing Swedish Social Democratic Party to make sure everyone could have a home at a reasonable price. The aim was to construct a million new dwellings during the programme's ten-year period. At the time, the intention to build one million new homes in a nation with a population of eight million made the Million Programme the most ambitious building programme in the world. At the same time, a large proportion of the older housing stock was demolished."

Back in the days everybody wanted to live there because it was modernistic. Today it is like the Bronx Projects. Poor people are put there because there is a lack of affordable housing. The Million Programme were called sleep cities, you only stayed there to sleep after your working day. Topday things are different. The somalis works as, for example, taxi drivers and janitors, they are very present and active in the public areas. Large families living cramped into their apartments. They were exposed daily and lived to close to each other. So it spread badly. They had no information and Sweden have a problem with segregation. People rather consume their own news sources from their former countries/group than they watch swedish media. But that is also a problem caused by segregating politics over a 30 year long time period.

The group is community driven and show up in hundreds to share greetings and sorrows in life. So it is easily spread.

The Sūrāyē/Sūrōyē (Syriacs, Arameans and Chaldeans) are well established in society. Most of the most luxurious restaurants and clubs in the city are owned by families from the group. They met lots of people daily. They are also very community oriented and show up in hundreds at each others weddings and funerals. They were hit badly when a spread to place at a funeral in the city of Södertälje. The group had to shut down 20 of their churches syriac-orthodox churches. Many of the families live at their family home for years.

That was two of the group worst hit.

After that the elderly care homes are very deeply hit. It a catastrophy.

This is parenthetical to the discussion of COVID-19, but you may know that a number of participants on this board routinely insist that the Muslims in Sweden are tearing the country apart. That information, naturally, tends to come from right-wing sources in the United States.

It is nice to hear the truth from someone who actually knows what is happening in Scandinavia. Thanks for both contributions.

Hi

My post is just my perspective. But it is the narrative in swedish press.

Yes this is a separate discussion but worthwhile! It is a wide area. How we people share our perspectives.

What is tearing apart the western world is simply bad philosophy

It comes down to a narrowing view on epistemology.

Every level suffers. Culture and economics.

Today. What is true is what conforms to belief. If the advanced truth in the complex world does not conform to the simple but inflated belief in the mind it is invalid data. Everything that does not conform to personal opinions are Fake news. The same skewed philosophy is used by both camps. Left or right. Green och industrialists.

This is not about president #45, he is just a symptom of the philosophy. The states had eight years with the best (media narrative) president ever but look where it all ended up? How come? That question never gets a clear answer. Like a bolt out of the blue from the best president to a north american 247 telenovela in the white house..


Explanation? The western world have reached some very serious zeniths over time and it is becoming a more and more unsafe place to live. So people, who became social atoms since the time of de-industrialisation almost 40 years ago, group mentally together and create influence and power where they stand. People get into their social media bubble and just reproduce ideology and bad philosophy. They are so weak, in millions they all cower, get high and drunk, but reinflate at the last second just to stay alive. Paycheck after paycheck. Like water through a sieve. Deflate, inflate, deflate, inflate, deflate, inflate. Add scapegoating to that you get something to unite against.

Most of us do it or did it. I am doing less of it.

The western world? What is it? In the year of 2020. It is a narcissistic hell-hole. We are living in it. The favorite pastime today is shopping and being an object in the eyes of others. Getting high on ego or external stuff.

Truth have never been more relative.

/Generation X - I am part of that group

>>Our policy put focus on being reactive on empirical data and not proactive on theories.

The U.S. used data from the 1918-19 Spanish flu pandemic. Cities which shut down had far fewer deaths overall. We also have data from when the cities reopened, which did in some cases show large secondary spikes if the reopening was not handled well. In other cities the secondary spikes were smaller and more manageable.

Thanks for your information.

A Norwegian friend once told me Swedes are stupid, but I’m still willing to give them the benefit of the doubt.

Lol. Oklahomans feel that way about Texans, and vice versa. Ditto Iowans and Minnesotans, and various other pairs of states. In all cases, there is not a dime's worth of difference between them. :)

Many Utah Mormons feel that way about pretty much every where else except Southeast Idaho & Disneyland.

No worries, China has been cloning monkeys for years and CRISPRing babies.
So if we lose 1% of the population to Covid 19, we can always just clone CRISPR Babies.

https://www.geneticsandsociety.org/article/scientific-breakthrough-chinese-scientists-clone-2-female-monkeys

https://www.dw.com/en/china-jails-scientists-for-crispr-gene-edited-babies/a-51831073



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 12:08PM by schrodingerscat.

Haven't time to go into details, but there are problems with your post. On top, surely it is folly to extrapolate anything from a week's data.

For perspective, let's keep in mind overall numbers, via Johns Hopkins:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

Sweden's mortality rate per 100,000 pop. is lower than Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy and France. Perhaps this will not hold, but there it is as of today.

Biggest problem even here is countries using different ways to report a covid death. For example, I don't believe for a second that Brasil's deaths per 100,000 is 9.57 while Canada's is 16.91 (the US is 28.95). But I do trust the numbers from the top six countries in mortality per 100,000 pop. cited above.

Sweden's experiment will be better evaluated as lock-down populations re-open and begin to mingle again. We'll see how things fall into place after the 2nd wave and a 3rd.

> Haven't time to go into details, but there are
> problems with your post. On top, surely it is
> folly to extrapolate anything from a week's data.

I did not extrapolate the way you suggest. I claimed "just that the weekly totals have converged. That may not continue, but the omens are unfavorable."

I stand by that statement.


-------------------
> Sweden's mortality rate per 100,000 pop. is lower
> than Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy and France. Perhaps
> this will not hold, but there it is as of today.

That ceased being true last week. I will reproduced below the sources I cited to bolster my claim.* The Oxford data are decent, comparable to some of the best sets available.


-------------------

> Biggest problem even here is countries using
> different ways to report a covid death. For
> example, I don't believe for a second that
> Brasil's deaths per 100,000 is 9.57 while Canada's
> is 16.91 (the US is 28.95). But I do trust the
> numbers from the top six countries in mortality
> per 100,000 pop. cited above.

Sure, the sources are inconsistent and that creates interpretive problems. But your data are totals for the entire pandemic period and mine track trends week-by-week. My point is that Sweden's trends are worsening as evidenced by the data from last week. There is no contradiction between my assertion and your JH data.


---------------
> Sweden's experiment will be better evaluated as
> lock-down populations re-open and begin to mingle
> again. We'll see how things fall into place after
> the 2nd wave and a 3rd.

That's why the percentage of the population apparently with antibodies (roughly 7%) is important. It is a leading indicator of what will happen in the 2nd and 3rd waves. That datum, furthermore, gives reason to believe that Sweden's strategy has not helped appreciably with herd immunity.


---------------
The flaw in my OP was my mention of the 2,000 figure, which I cannot now track down and recognize makes no sense in terms of the national totals; in short, Sweden did not suffer half of all its deaths last week.

But my use of the weekly reports to indicate trends was, and remains, sound.




*Highest in Europe:

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-most-coronavirus-deaths-europe-per-capita-report-2020-5

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-coronavirus-per-capita-death-rate-among-highest-2020-5



Highest in the world:

https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/health/health-problems/coronavirus-swedens-death-toll-becomes-worlds-highest-per-capita/news-story/1e9f4fb4fdb0b013e9ea2f10e05aaa7d



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/22/2020 01:52PM by Lot's Wife.

In my native Belgium, slowly coming out of lockdown, 80% of people who catch Covfefe-19 (as I call it), survive.
In Sweden fewer than 50% survive.

And please note I wrote SURVIVE, not RECOVER. People don't really make a full recovery from this ailment.
A 30-year-old who is hospitalized will survive it after three horrendous weeks of force-breathing, but he or she will be left with the fitness of a 70-year-old.

Just my two eurocents.

Visitors Welcome Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> In my native Belgium, slowly coming out of
> lockdown, 80% of people who catch Covfefe-19 (as I
> call it), survive.
> In Sweden fewer than 50% survive.
>
> And please note I wrote SURVIVE, not RECOVER.
> People don't really make a full recovery from this
> ailment.
> A 30-year-old who is hospitalized will survive it
> after three horrendous weeks of force-breathing,
> but he or she will be left with the fitness of a
> 70-year-old.
>
> Just my two eurocents.


Thank you.