In a currently closed thread, poster "Visitors Welcome" claimed that "fewer than 50% survive" the Virus in Sweden, whereas 80% survive in Belgium:

https://www.exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,2310764,2311105#msg-2311105


From what I've been seeing generally on the subject, that statement seemed WAY off on its face. And according to the Johns-Hopkins site, the "observed case-fatality ratio" in Sweden is actually lower than in Belgium:

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality


Visitors Welcome, what is the source for your claim?

Thanks.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/23/2020 06:12PM by lurking in.

Thank you for resurrecting this thread since there was something I tried twice, albeit unsuccessfully, to say. The first time my post was deleted by divine caprice, the second time the thread was closed.

I led by saying that Sweden lost 2,000 people last week. "Lurking in" and BoJ pointed out that that couldn't have been correct, for which I thanked them. Then someone else suggested that I must feel embarrassed for demanding facts of others and then chalking up a fail myself.

The answer is no, I feel no shame. I always try to base my posts in facts but, to paraphrase Lewis Carroll, "sometimes I've believed as many as six incorrect things before breakfast." In this instance I could not find the sources for the 2,000 figure and concluded that I must have remembered it incorrectly.

Such errors cause me no more than momentary discomfort. It is by offering evidence and argument, then having others critique my positions that I learn, which is one of the great pleasures in life. That is how science works and it is how strong people interact with each other. I would say to my critic that he might more equanimously subject himself to the refiner's fire of criticism, for it is the heat rather than the water that tempers the blade.

And to "lurking in" and BoJ, I repeat: thank you for correcting what I got wrong.

Thank you for your contributions to this site!

And I responded to the deleted post that you left out one of your principles of debate:

To try and ridicule and humiliate those with an opposing opinion.

:)

On another note, I’ve told friends for years that I’m wrong three times before I get out of bed in the morning, so I share that observation with Lewis.

btw, To me, being wrong is great. And the bigger the wrong the better. Because it’s a chance to change man and that is pure adrenaline. I love it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/23/2020 08:51PM by jay.

> To try and ridicule and humiliate those with an
> opposing opinion.
>
> :)


Do you see why some might consider that statement passive-aggressive?

:)

Did you have to dig that deep to understand what I was saying?

lol


Human made an observation about you getting a bit personal with people in that now deleted portion of that thread. I think Human was pretty direct and spot on. I’m sure you saw it. :)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/24/2020 09:08AM by jay.

I never have to dig deep to understand what you are saying. No one does.

ditto

It looks like Sweden lost (in very rough numbers) about 500 people in a little over a week (May 13-23.) Deaths there peaked around April 22nd.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

That confuses me because it is inconsistent with other reports. This one, for instance, says that Sweden's death rate last week was the highest in Europe; also, and this is verified in other reports, that only 7.3% of Swedes have been infected and presumably have some degree of immunity; and that the economy has fared about the same as countries that implemented much more restrictive lock-downs.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2020/05/23/swedens-gamble-on-coronavirus-has-it-paid-off/#363420352dcd

And this one. . .

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/swedens-per-capita-coronavirus-death-toll-is-among-the-highest-in-the-world-e2-80-94-a-sign-its-decision-to-avoid-a-lockdown-may-not-be-working/ar-BB146vNh

The same site that I linked puts Sweden's death rate a 396 per 1M population, which is high, but there are countries that are a lot worse. i.e. Spain, Italy, etc.

OTOH, when you compare Sweden's death rate to its neighbors, it comes out not looking so good. Norway is 43 per 1M, Finland is 55, and Denmark is 97. So Sweden has anywhere from 4-8 times the death rate of its Scandinavian neighbors. And as you point out, Sweden has not come even close to achieving herd immunity. Their immunity rate is no better than that of France or Spain.

Moreover, Sweden has not been a completely open society during the pandemic. They have been using and encouraging the same measures that the U.S. is currently using (or will be using) during Phase 1 and Phase 2 reopenings, i.e. social distancing, working from home where possible, etc. So in terms of opening, they are maybe 2-5 months ahead of where we are or have been. Plus, as the Forbes article points out, they are no better off economically than anyone else for having stayed open.

Two months of a hard shutdown bought us a lot of lives, and I don't think we need to apologize for that. It bought Finland, Denmark, and Norway a lot of lives as well.

Yes.

The rates at worldometer are cumulative- the total number of deaths/million population. If you look at the bar graph for each country, you can get an approximate number of deaths for any time period(approximate because it involves interpolation on the vertical axis).

That number has to be divided by the population to get the appropriate rate per million. For Sweden 500 deaths is a rate of 50/million. For the UK the same rate would require ~3,400 deaths during the same period. So it is possible that 500 deaths in Sweden is the highest rate in Europe in the last 7-10 days.

According to worldometer, Sweden's cumulative death rate over the past 4 weeks has gone from 152/million to 396/million. During the same time, the US rate has gone from 143/million to 298/million, so Sweden is increasing faster than the US. To assess the current situation from the cumulative per capita death rate, you have to compare the rate of change of the cumulative per capita rate which is not an easy number to find.

So I think that both you and summer may well be correct.

According to the data at worldometer, the ratio of deaths to closed cases (deaths+recovered) for Sweden is 44.5%, while that for Belgium is 37.8%.

Thanks for taking the time to go through the data so thoroughly. Your explanation makes sense.

Much of what is tossed out into the interwebz is total fabrication made to sound credible.

It’s great fodder for arguing.

Which is what we appear to do best...

Half the Twitter accounts pushing to 'reopen America' are bots.

There are no if's, and's, or bots about it.

I'm pretty sure a lot of them are chinese bots also.

And you know this how ?

Lot’s Wife, an error is not a failure. There’s a reason they put erasers on pencils. You’re fine.

Numerical errors notwithstanding, hopefully everyone understands what you are trying to tell us about this disease.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/23/2020 10:40PM by kathleen.

Hi Kathleen, my dear friend.

To me the words don't matter. My point was that learning stops when one's ego attaches to a particular viewpoint, for then it becomes emotionally costly to move forward. I think that's an important principle for people to bear in mind.

So bring on the pencils!

Like when 1x1 does not equal -1? Ha ha ha ha.

Too many people witnessed that tyrade to think that ego didn't have anything to do with you not wanting to be wrong about that basic math problem. Fortunately for you, the mods deleted most of what you said there before too many people could read it. I am not trying to provoke anything here. But please, let's get real here about egos and about even self righteousness about egos. There is a sickness afoot here that has nothing to do with covid-19. Healing from membership in an cult means looking at things honestly. People point out this kind of thing in your posts, not because you are less than perfect. They do it because you pick on them and because you act like you are better than them by belittling what they say which those attacks against them often deviate far from the topic of the thread and which do in fact contain personal attacks. The fact that you can find a few friends here who usually back you up, only creates gaslighting towards those others who may not yet know how to deal with it. That's an immoral thing to do whether in a church or on an internet forum. I don't know Jordan. There is no passive aggression nor regular aggression in simply stating what really happened.



Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 05/24/2020 09:48PM by azsteve.

I stand by everything I wrote in that thread, including the posts you had removed. I wish you had the courage to leave them up rather than hiding behind the mods' skirts.

There are, as I said, cases in which one times one does not equal one depending on what the "ones" are. One "i" times one "i" equals negative one, right? You may laugh, but that laughter does not obviate the facts.

Or are you going to use high school math to argue that your understanding of math is superior to mine as if I did not attend high school? I repeat: if you are an engineer (jury out), you would definitely know some math better than I. But by the same token, there are areas in which my grasp is better than yours.

But hey, you can just get this post removed, right? That way you win every argument--except the one for self-respect. No one can fill that hole for you.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/24/2020 10:25PM by Lot's Wife.

That’s funny LW. You probably don’t realize how your response just affirms his comments.

“They do it because you pick on them and because you act like you are better than them by belittling what they say which those attacks against them often deviate far from the topic of the thread and which do in fact contain personal attacks.”

You couldn’t deal with this mild criticism and observation. But I can confess that that very description applies to me. Many times in my life I have demonstrated that same exact type of behavior. So having somebody bring something to my attention about me is not a reason to lash out. It’s really a time for introspection and a chance to maybe try to work on myself and make some changes. I can dig it.

It’s OK to have some holes to fill and work on filling them. That’s part of the joy, the rush, the excitement and the fun of living. But always trying to prove you’re right about everything. What’s the point?

It's funny, Jay, that you would accuse me of refusing to acknowledge errors and change my views when in the threads we are discussing I did just that, expressing my gratitude to BoJ, lurking in, [|] and others for setting me straight. But I am under no obligation to go are far as you apparently want, admitting that I erred when azsteve or you say something foolish.

As for your personal issues about ego and epistemology, those are between you and your therapist. I have no interest in exploring them with you.

I talked to a few therapists years ago. There was one who focused on rational-based therapy. We had four or five sessions and it was super helpful to me in my life.

I know those personal defects are really scary for some people. But once you engage it’s exhilarating.

Four or five sessions of psychotherapy really helped your life?

You mean that if I put five hours into therapy I could be as wise as you?

Yeah it really did help me.

I’ve read posts on here that I thought were insightful and we’re worth me spending time thinking about. I’ve cut and pasted things in the my little notes and reflected on somebody’s perspectives.

For me, it could just be a passing comment that somebody makes that could be transformative. And you never know who the source might be.

There was a poster hear some years ago it was an older lady by the name of Susie. She really bothered me and got under my skin. But there were some perspectives that she had that I thought were incredible and that I wanted to adopt for myself. So, I’m always on the lookout for something that I can utilize in my own life. I might even get something from you.

And pigs could fly.

I think there's enough left of both threads to see who has a higher education as I did not repeat three character expressions and simply mention having done plots in high-school to back up impossible claims that would require algebraic manipulations to prove anything in the way that you presented them. I could tell by your words that you didn't have any advanced algebra because your expression at just a quick glance, obviously couldn't be reconciled. So I was hoping the discussion would go in to advanced algebra, for an easy slam-dunk. But I did gave a real-life example using triganometry to elaborate on what Boj said (explaining the EE part he said he didn't understand and that was relevant to the expression that you used as your proof). I also described how much larger expressions actually applied to the real-life example in the art. Your imaginary numbers were truely imaginary in a fantasy kind of way. But that is not the point. There are a lot of wonderful people in this world that do not have a higher education and that is okay too.

When someone goes right in to issuing personal attacks when their statements are questioned, it is reasonable to ask yourself what kind of a life they've had. If they act like a street fighter who picks up the nearest thing they can find to use as a weapon because they feel like they've been 'dissed', you know you're likely not dealing with a trained martial artist (a metaphor here).

So it is likely that at some point, you went out and got yourself some 'ejumakashun'. But you don't appear to have learned much and it didn't do much to change your character as it does for most people. I am sure you're proud of the areas you did well in. And one critical lesson seems to be missing. You should be at least cordial to everyone by default. Because in your wisdom (if you want to call it that), your 'go-to place' is still the street fight if you feel dissed (whether justified or not). You shouldn't pick on people here in dis-respectful ways because you disagree with them. It's anti-social and it causes others to want to do the same to you in return. You do it in most of your threads except when your loyal followers are the only ones commenting. And I am not the only person here to point this out to you. When a serious challenger shows up, you double down on trying to destroy that person by attacking their psyche publicly. For some people who have been wounded by a cult, the certainty of your attacks may feel justified. But in reality, what happens is often obscene by comparison. You should start out by apologizing to Jordan even if you think his comments are stupid or ignorant. Perhaps if he felt heard and respected and was instead was publicly ridiculed, he wouldn't feel the need to use different personas in attempts to communicate.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 05/24/2020 11:51PM by azsteve.

You are right, azsteve. You are far more educated than me. Everyone can see that.

Jay showed you some personal vulnerability here and how did you respond? My Masters degree in business administration and my bachelor's EE degree don't make me a better person by default. I recall that I got some healing out of my Humanities course and that escaping poverty afterward gave me some time to look inward and fix some things that I might not have otherwise addressed. You probably owe Jay an apology too by the way.

azsteve, I will not apologize to you or your apologist. Your predictable endorsement of his, macaRomney's, Free Man's, and Jordan's rants does nothing to enhance their credibility.

You are a racist who thinks that foreigners from south of the United States are not entitled to the rights afforded by US law and treaties but have never suggested limiting the rights of people from Canada or Europe. You have likewise attacked Muslims on the grounds that they somehow represent a threat to white people and the United States. And you have prophesied that Donald Trump would triumph in the mid-term elections and be embraced by the entire country. He has indeed fulfilled his "America First" pledge but only in terms of COVID deaths. Let's not forget what you thus represent.

I'm confident you will have this and perhaps some of my other posts deleted, leaving your screeds up and unexamined. But don't assume that means you won any factual arguments.

As for your education, if I had received an MBA that left me with such a flaccid grasp of economics and incapable of basic spelling, I would want my money back.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/25/2020 12:19AM by Lot's Wife.

kathleen Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Lot’s Wife, an error is not a failure.
> There’s a reason they put erasers on pencils.

We all make mistakes, but don't dress them up as anything other than that.

And yet you, the greatest mistake, are dressing yourself up yet again in different garb in the hope that we don't recognize you.

A mistake is a mistake, Jordan. Take a look in the mirror.

I remember when the moderators would come down harshly on people using aliases.

I was once given an explanation for why Jordan presents unique problems. I believe they are credible.

So we are left trying to spot him in successive cowardly personae. Not too difficult, though.

So is the goal here to: 1.) Drive any form of Jordan completely away from this forum because he is unworthy, a coward (as you put it)? 2.) Have fun ourselves at Jordan's expense by humiliating him and proving him wrong? 3.) Help Jordan to find something of value here? If we pick number three, how does calling him a coward help him?



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/24/2020 09:39PM by azsteve.

If you have complaints about the rules--one moniker, no political diatribes--perhaps you should talk to the moderators, who have banned at least a dozen of his fake names. Maybe you can even persuade them not to apply the political rule to you, although that would be inconsistent.

Alternatively you could go set up your own board so you and your fellow travelers can whine about your victimization in peace.

its fine that we've all become amateur epidemiologists and statisticians, and inevitably errors and misunderstandings creep in.

Death rate can mean deaths to date per head of population, or deaths as a percentage of total cases, which are measuring two totally different things.

Of the number of people who get confirmed as sick, it seems that about 1.5% is the average death rate, but his varies according to the age profile of those getting ill, and the quality of health care and the number of beds available.

The varying death rates vs population really just tells us how far into the epidemic each country is, and is consequently not very useful.

The Johns Hopkins site records the number of new cases each day for each country so that the trend can be clearly observed. Of all those new daily cases, a fairly steady percentage will die at some point a few weeks into the future. I think the daily new case trend is the most telling measure.

I think [|]'s analysis above clarifies a lot of the ambiguities in the data.

Sweden is really a failing state. It is lucky, it once had a strong economy but it will end up like Greece. It also has a problem with terrorist bombing in Malmo.

It is no wonder they are doing so badly with Covid 19. They have had bad government and media for decades... They can't handle a real disaster.

I think 90% of the world's countries would be happy to have Sweden's problems instead of their own...

Is Sweden a shithole country ?

I think VW is saying that Sweden is the opposite of a "shit hole country."

Jordan, we had a Swede here the other day telling us what the situation in that country is like. Suffice it to say that his analysis differed dramatically from the right-wing blather that emanates from your home in Alberta.

Your hobgloblins of the left-wing media, socialist government, and Islamic terrorism are the wet dreams of a man who has nightmares of Trotsky under his bed.

Give it a break.

But the conservative lockdown protesters were shouting "Be Like Sweden" and holding up those signs!

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/lockdown-protesters-shout-be-sweden-swedes-say-they-are-missing-n1207566

Oh no! They want to emulate a failed state!

They must also want Sweden's nationalized health care. Can we hope?

summer Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> They must also want Sweden's nationalized health
> care. Can we hope?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Compulsory_sterilisation_in_Sweden

"Compulsory sterilisation in Sweden were sterilisations which were carried out in Sweden, without a valid consent of the subject, during the years 1906–1975 on eugenic, medical and social grounds. Between 1972 and 2012, sterilisation was also a condition for gender reassignment surgery... there were three grounds on which sterilisation could be permitted...

"Eugenic, which allowed sterilising people considered insane or with severe illness or with a physical disability.
"Social indication allowed sterilisation of people considered unsuitable to foster a child due to mental illness, being feebleminded or having an antisocial lifestyle."

Taxing fat people
"In 2009, the number of [Swedish] people who are considered overweight or obese had not increased for the first time in 70 years.[2] Claude Marcus, a leading Swedish nutrition expert from the Karolinska Institutet, stated that one solution is to introduce a fat tax."

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obesity_in_Sweden

Fake happiness:
"According to a 2011 article in The New York Times, "Numerous studies have shown that places like Denmark and Sweden that consistently score high on measures of happiness and life satisfaction also have relatively high suicide rates."

Yet another fake name, Jordan?

I'm not sure which is more amusing: your pusillanimous refusal to contact CZ and settle on a single name, or your critique of Swedish mistakes in order to discredit national health insurance as if it were solely a Swedish institution.

I'm surprised you didn't list Gustavus Adolphus as a reason not to trust the Swedish government. After all, he wreaked havoc across much of Europe for 20 years back in the early 17th century. Surely that crime means no one can take Sweden seriously ever again.

It was Gustavus Adolphus who commissioned the Vasa, the glorious but topheavy warship. It was loaded with extra ballast, putting the gunports too close to the water, and one breezy day the gunports submerged, and the ship sank in the harbor. That had to be a seriously embarrassing day.

The ship was refloated in 1961, and is now quite a stunning museum piece in downtown Stockholm.

I have a friend who has a technology consulting business in the auto industry, and was going to Europe, and especially Sweden so often, he eventually just moved there. He has lived in and around Stockholm for 20 some years. If Sweden is a failed state, he hasn't noticed.

Anyway, I've been keeping half an eye on the worldometer covid stats from other countries, including Sweden. When I saw the bogus numbers about Swedish covid deaths, I thought that can't possibly be right, but I had to actually look at the numbers to make sure.

When I did, I was surprised to see that Belgium, with very nearly the same population as Sweden, was running way ahead of Sweden in infections and deaths. I haven't heard anything about what is going on there. Doesn't look pretty.

I do have some friends in Madrid. It has been pretty grim there, but the restriction are starting to loosen finally. You don't need to have a dog as an excuse to walk around the neighborhood now. They had been borrowing a neighbor's dog. :) the neighbor was old and has trouble walking, so borrowing the dog was actually pretty legit.

As for the reporting errors here, it happens. I look at enough numbers that I fairly regularly have to go back and edit some of what I post. I should check the numbers before I post, but I often don't realize what I said (or what I was unsure about) until after I post it and read the finished post. D'oh!.

If I see and fix the error within a minute or so of posting, I just hope nobody is responding to the unedited version. A few times I was too late. :-/

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
----------------------
> I often don't realize what I said (or what I was
> unsure about) until after I post it and read the
> finished post. D'oh!.



Or to paraphrase Faulkner:

“I don’t know what I think ‘till I see what I say.” :)

The great BoJ makes mistakes?

Impossible!

I don't make misteaks !

If you can do a search on my username and the word "edited", all will be revealed. :)

I almost corrected someone on Galileo's quote "still. it moves" or words to that effect, because I thought Giordano Bruno said that. Fortunately I checked first. It was Galileo.