http://www.healthdata.org/special-analysis/estimation-excess-mortality-due-covid-19-and-scalars-reported-covid-19-deaths


http://www.healthdata.org/news-release/covid-19-has-caused-69-million-deaths-globally-more-double-what-official-reports-show



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2021 05:43PM by Dave the Atheist.

More evidence purporting to show that COVID is real? Shocking.

Every day we see that the conspiracy reaches further than we'd ever imagined. . .

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> More evidence purporting to show that COVID is
> real? Shocking.
>
> Every day we see that the conspiracy reaches
> further than we'd ever imagined.

My goodness I hate it when I have to agree with you. It is such fun to disagree and argue. But here it is I agree with you

You should see a doctor, fast!

This must be why the church is building more temples. Russell M Nelson is a true visionary.

TBMs be like, “Whoaaah”

I have a friend (defined broadly) who insists that all other nations are deliberately undercounting their covid deaths. Meanwhile, they also insist the US is over counting them "because hospitals get more money that way."

I've worked with doctors. I believe falsifying a death certificate is a felony, and that doing that could get your medical license suspended or lifted entirely. It strains credulity well beyond the breaking point to think that there aren't some doctors who wouldn't raise holy hell if they were asked to risk their license because the geeks in accounting thought it would be a good idea.


Governments are quite good at counting births and deaths. They are not quite as good at assigning causes of death, because often, especially in the case of disease, it is a cascade of causes. Deciding which is the root cause can sometimes be difficult.

That said, the percentage of people who die in a country from year to year is remarkably stable. Same number of heart attacks, of cancers, etc. Under 1% variation is common. If it gets to 2% or more, they start asking lots of questions to find out the cause. I believe the provisional "excess deaths" for last year in the US was 15%. That is the second biggest number on record, 1918 being the worst ever, caused by the Spanish flu and WWI.

Since the 2020 flu season was nearly nonexistent in the US (around 2000 cases) (and they did more than the usual number of tests for flu, 1.3M compared to a usual 1M), it is pretty safe to assume that nearly all the excess deaths were covid related.

Not that the CDC will assume that. They usually take 3 years to release final numbers on flu deaths. I assume the same will be true for covid. Even provisional numbers usually take about a year. They tend to be scrupulous to the point of absurdity.


ETA: "provisional provisional" numbers (my term) are available on the fly during the year. The CDC does a weekly MMWR - Mortality and Morbidity Weekly Report. The reports for 2020 show the dramatic spike in excess deaths.

If you want to bury yourself in an avalanche of data, do a search on "CDC MMWR". You've been warned.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2021 06:48PM by Brother Of Jerry.

I have a friend, an educated and thoughtful engineer, who refuses to get vaccinated. I have no problem with that, but for some reason she feels impelled to persuade me that the vaccine is unnecessary and dangerous. To that end she sent me several interviews with doctors--internists, pediatricians, cardiologists, never anyone with epidemiological or virological expertise--claiming that COVID is a hoax and/or the vaccines are only a way for pharmaceutical companies to rob the public.

She has asserted several times that Fauci and the other specialists as well as the NIH, the CDC, the WHO, etc., have a conflict of interest and hence cannot be trusted. This sounds much like the Soviet and Chinese logic: anyone who has expertise in economics, industry, or government is by definition corrupt and must be purged. Government and/or healthcare must be run by people with no relevant experience--at least until Hitler invades and the value of expertise is suddenly inescapable.

Yet what really surprises me is my friend's belief that only establishment scientists have a conflict of interest. I have not had the heart to point out that her "experts" have a conflict of interest as well as a lack of training. To put the point succinctly, will anyone ever hear of Scott Atlas again?

Those who don’t take the vaccine risk the ire of our reptilian overlords. Your friend is a holdout in “Invasion of the Body Snatchers”.

The more shrill sounding the pro-vax rhetoric becomes, the harder these types will dig in their heels. Since our society can’t help but go over the top with its own propaganda, a sizable chunk of the population won’t get vaccinated no matter what. Threatening them with death or imprisonment won’t even work.

Which I think is fine. An experiment needs a control group. It also needs a surviving population in case the experiment goes horribly wrong, which is really the scary part. Imagine a world of only Trump Republicans.

My dad was a 2020 excess death. He died because he was denied a procedure to have a fatal blood clot removed from a broken hip from an accident at work, in order to leave room for covid patients in Utah in April. (back when a hospitals were largely vacant, while covid was easily manageable, and before covid cases grew ten times higher 6 months later). My mom and dad were told that he had to wait until after the pandemic had subsided in order to get the blood clot fixed. With the help of some financial experts and lawyers, thankfully my mother was able to get alot of money in a settlement after my dad died, but it never replaced my dad.

That number exceeds the deaths for the 1918-19 Spanish flu by a good margin. I believe it. I don't know why some people insist on living in denial about Covid. Both of my maternal grandparents lost their first spouses to the Spanish flu. Pandemics kill.

Deaths to the Spanish flu were an estimated 650,000 in a population of 106 million. On a per capita basis that would be roughly 2 million today, or twice the level that we presently observe.

But those numbers are a damning indictment of the United States today since healthcare is so much better now. Identification of new epidemics, preventative care, remedial care, and vaccine technology: we have enormous advantages in 2020, vastly more than a century ago.

Government has prodigious influence over these things. Imagine how much better things would have been if we didn't spend months last year in denial, if we didn't have tens of millions of anti-vaxxers even now. The combination of popular stupidity and official malfeasance has shown that medicine along cannot prevent disaster.

But the advantages are only technological. The US has a third world political system that could be worse than what existed at the time of the Spanish Flu.

It was surreal watching the political train wreck unfold in slow motion knowing there was nothing we could do to stop it.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2021 10:13PM by babyloncansuckit.

Agreed. The US performance against the virus is definitely "third world," and the primary cause is "official malfeasance."

Nailed it. Gross governmental incompetence coupled with unbelievable stupidity of the populace and here we are; more dead Americans that perished in both World Wars, combined. I hope the conspiracy crackpot crew is happy.

It would surprise me if the number of ordinary flu deaths this past year were not at a record low. Covid-19 precautions were so great that the ordinary flu was unlikely to gain a foothold or spread anywhere. We were told early-on that this Covid 19 is worse than the flu because of how it spreads more than the flu. So if we were effective at stopping Covid-19 from running rampant, the flu didn't even have any opportunity to spread either, being less likely to spread then Covid-19 is, to begin with.

I heard that for record keeping purposes, that Doctors in hospitals were allowed to list Covid-19 as a cause of death, as long as the corpse tested positive for Covid-19. No risk of license was necessary. It was officially sanctioned. I believe that they did even test Dead people for Covid-19 because enough people in the society were infected with Covid-19 that even if you were young and died in a car accident, the hospital stood a fair enough chance of collecting Covid-19 money, if they just test everyone, regardless of age, health, or obvious cause of death being from something else. If that is not true (and maybe someone will find a good source to prove otherwise), then we really can't tell how many people in the US died of Covid-19.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2021 10:21PM by azsteve.

Your second paragraph explains why the focus must be on excess deaths as well as reported COVID deaths. It's the same methodology was has been applied to the Spanish flu.

It's the "doctors-are-lying" argument.

Yes, and NASA would have had their budget cut had there been no moon landing.

That does not constitute proof that the moon landing was faked. Jeez.

If lots of deaths from other causes were misreported as COVID deaths, then those other causes of death would be unusually low for 2020. That has not been the case. Suicides were down a bit, much to my surprise. An uptick was what I expected. Maybe people were committing suicide by COVID. /s

Brother Of Jerry Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Yes, and NASA would have had their budget cut had
> there been no moon landing.
>
> That does not constitute proof that the moon
> landing was faked. Jeez.
>
> If lots of deaths from other causes were
> misreported as COVID deaths, then those other
> causes of death would be unusually low for 2020.
> That has not been the case. Suicides were down a
> bit, much to my surprise. An uptick was what I
> expected. Maybe people were committing suicide by
> COVID. /s

Looks like they found mushrooms growing on Mars. We need to send NASA more money to investigate further. Just send the money to me and I'll make sure that NASA gets it.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/technology/scientists-believe-these-photos-show-mushrooms-on-mars-and-proof-of-life/ar-BB1gtcN2



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/07/2021 10:32PM by azsteve.

So primitive fungus is the same as mushrooms ?

Yes, but has NASA found the Moon Quakers yet? I'm sure any moment now. :p

Ok, the number is higher than I thought it was but I have been taking all the proper precautions to not get the virus or spread it if I did have it and I got tested once and it turned out negative.

I may not actually be as stupid as some people assumed. I kind of want to live a while longer also since my time in religion was not actually living in my opinion. Was like a prison sentence honestly with my parents being my jailers.

Well I have my doubts about this virus and spending 7 trillion on it, more than ww2, we're going to be seeing shortages and runaway inflation if our leaders dont do something like raise the interest rates which is going to lock up the real estate market, as if it's not happened already,... we're in trouble

But on a different note I had my 2nd vaccine yesterday, and so I'm following the so called science (even with my doubts about these people in charge)

But you were ok with spending $7 trillion on Iraq/Afghanistan?

That didn’t cause runaway inflation. The bank bailout in 2008 didn’t cause runaway inflation. But I see hope springs eternal. Maybe this time we’ll get some inflation.

While your nostalgia for the 1970s is touching, here’s why there was inflation in the 1970s: Vietnam and the Great Society had some effect, OPEC had more, but it was mostly the Boomers.

There were a lot of them, and they were going to college and getting married and buying houses. The world population spiked 50% in the 1970s. That was the main cause of the inflation of the 1970s.

No population spike now. The current housing spike is in places that are growing, but there are lots of places not growing that fast, if at all. Kentucky is cheap.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/13/2021 08:50PM by Brother Of Jerry.

Mr. Kentucky may want to have words with you!

A glance at other sites and comparative numbers:
Covid 19 deaths in United States

CDC=580,837
Worldometer=598,540
IHME=905,289
WHO=577,510

YMMV

See store manager for details

I live in a state in Australia that has a population a smidge under 2.7 million. Our total number of covid deaths is nine. We have had two short, sharp lockdowns recently because of one or two cases in the community. Other places ( countries) think we are nuts because we have these short lockdowns but I'd rather live here where our state premier takes this virus seriously.
I've had my first AZ jab...getting my second in mid June.

Best of luck with the seconds, and congratulations on having largely eluded the scourge.

Australia has managed the pandemic pretty well and has had very few fatalities but now facing the opposite problem where the population is slow to take up the vaccine because of complacency and perceived risk. This will make us susceptible to new waves of infection, border controls and lockdowns for the next year or so.

America at least has apparently been very successful in rolling out its vaccine programs.

I'm worried about America slowing down, though. Currently we are at 47.5% with the first dose, and 34.4% with the second dose. We really need to get up to 70-80% of people vaccinated. The encouraging news is that they've started to vaccinate the 12-15 age group. Hopefully that will help to bump the numbers up.

These numbers: what an indictment of the American Health Care system.


Note of caution: as the CDC relaxes masking guidelines, continue to be wary. Vaccines are not all equal*, and none of them are 100%. Eight vaccinated Yankees (J&J) are Covid positive today, one of them having had Covid before. Bloomberg has a sobering report on the Seychelles, the most vaccinated population, getting reinfected. There are many other reports like this that are not quite prominent in the American news cycle yet.

Vaccination may or may not get us out of this. We’ll see. The experiment is happening in real time. Things are changing as more data comes in.

Vaccinated or not: self-isolation is still best, minimizing contact is still prudent, and masking-up is still a necessary caution. This thing ain’t done yet.


*If Astra-Zeneca is what is offered, be extra diligent in your research.

Human Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> *If Astra-Zeneca is what is offered, be extra
> diligent in your research.


For example, when Science misses:

>>>Provincial Health Officer Dr. Bonnie Henry confirmed that B.C. health officials are watching for incidence of the syndrome associated with AstraZeneca.

"It's a very serious thing. Once you have antibodies to your platelets, they clump together. That can lead to very severe plugging of some of our important blood vessels. Yes, very challenging, very serious. It seems, though, that you're more likely to develop it the first time you're exposed to the vaccine," Henry said this week. "We're watching very carefully."

Fisman believes that Canada may have initially missed signals about the rate of risk as AstraZeneca initially was given to older people so strokes caused by the vaccine may have gone undetected.

He predicts — based on global trends — that adverse effects could potentially hit one in every 22,000 people who get the Astra-Zeneca jab — five times what was predicted.<<<

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/langley-man-intestine-vaccine-effect-1.6027830



5X is quite the miss...

BC has now joined Alberta, Ontario, and most of the other Provinces in halting this vaccine as a first shot.

I wonder when the call will come for the booster shot.

Most people where I live are still wearing masks when out shopping, even though the state of Maryland has dropped mask restrictions for those who are vaccinated.

The mass vaccination sites here are doing walk-ins all day long, with no wait.

Since they're free, I wonder if there's an upper limit on how many vaccinations you can get without endangering yourself?

Just remember, there's no such thing as a free vaccination.

The real question is, how many microchips can you receive without endangering your physical and ment--well, in your case, physical health?

I don't need no stinkin' microchips. I carry a cell phone.

Yes, but every dog needs one. And EOD has many, many masters.

"Master of nun" popped into my head, so I'm just going to go with it.

Anything you say, Father!

That way EOD could be returned home if he ever gets lost!

You have a microchip, hold a strong magnet over it and it will erase all data making it useless. Ps there are no microchips

Yes, I know. I kept asking but they insisted they don't exist. So now I'm heading over to the tattoo parlor to see if they can hook me up.

I hate microchips! They're too small to hold any clam dip and it takes a gazillion of them to feel full! I'll take a full sized Ruffles any day!

The real reason there is a shortage of microchips for cars, etc. is because all the microchip stuff was secretly obtained to use in vaccines. It's a coincidence there's now a shortage of microchip supply chain things? I think not! ;-)

Waiting for someone from Faux to report this story. :D

We have 25,000 Covid deaths with roughly 1/10th of the US population....so doing better by that metric...but our vaccine roll-out is lagging behind the US because Trudeau tried to make a vaccine deal with China...and they screwed him over...it's what they always do.
Main difference is the the virus wasn't politicized here to the same extent. But the evangelicals and others who have always mistrusted government are spreading their anti mask anti Vax message.

Ammon Bundy is the cause of it all.

Find stupidity somewhere? Ammon Bundy is the Patron (L-d)Saint of Stupidity.

On the CDC website there is a statement in the mortality overview that caught my eye.

The death records indicate that 95% of the deaths recorded show one or more comorbidities.

The CDC notes that 5% of the reported deaths are attributed to COVID as the exclusive cause of death.

It would seem that in most cases, COVID needed an accomplice to kill.

I plan to wear a mask in high risk situations until Covid fades into obscurity and otherwise will not mask up merely out of habit or fear.

I know that there are plenty of people who have suffered the effects of Covid. Most recovered. A very small number do not.

I like my odds without resorting to vaccination.

csuprovograd Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I like my odds without resorting to vaccination.

Well, let's see:

COVID deaths: 598,540
Deaths from the vaccine: 0

Good luck with those odds.

Space Pineapple Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> csuprovograd Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I like my odds without resorting to
> vaccination.
>
> Well, let's see:
>
> COVID deaths: 598,540
> Deaths from the vaccine: 0
>
> Good luck with those odds.

The devil is in the fine print...and the silence of omission.

>> It would seem that in most cases, COVID needed an accomplice to kill.

In that scenario, Covid is still charged with murder.

My Mormon cousin from Pocatello told me yesterday that death toll number is wildly overblown BS. But she voted for orange guy



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/18/2021 12:24AM by Lethbridge Reprobate.

And also why Idaho's vaccination rate is bogged down in the 37% range.

I'm somehow not surprised. Breath-taking natural beauty in that state, but, wow, nutburgers galore. *yikes*

Well, it looks like Free Man stepped right into the conspiracy theory black hole. I guess he didn't read CZ's post on the subject.

The clock is ticking for Jordan to show up under another pseudonym to complain about how RfM is part of the global conspiracy of Marxist frankfurters, Fash critics, and racism deniers. . .

I need to learn to stop responding to his posts. It is a big waste of time finding the facts and posting them only to have them deleted (not being critical of Admin who I think is doing the right thing).

Agreed on both points.

You'd think he could take a hint but no, he has to save the world from cultural Marxists who are trying to kidnap the Kardashians and transport them back to the Skousen Era.

Read the article . . . they have not determined that an additional 400,000 people in the US dies of COVID itself. The are attributing excess mortality to COVID if it was related to the lockdowns, primarily by way of delayed access to care for other conditions, and increased drug and alcohol use due to the social isolation.

The headline is misleading. There are deaths from COVID, and deaths from COVID lockdowns.

That is incorrect. If you read the article you will see that they correct for such distortions.

---------------
"Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate. In other words, we estimate excess mortality in all locations with sufficient data. Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate the fraction of excess mortality that is from total COVID-19 deaths as opposed to the five other drivers that influence excess mortality. Third, we build a statistical model that predicts the ratio of total COVID-19 deaths to reported COVID-19 deaths based on covariates and spatial effects. Fourth, we use this statistical relationship to predict the ratio of total to reported COVID-19 deaths in places without data on total COVID-19 deaths and then multiply the reported COVID-19 deaths by this ratio to generate estimates of total COVID-19 deaths for all locations. More details on each of these analytical steps are presented below."


-------------
Conclusion: You don't seem to have read past the second paragraph.

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Conclusion: You don't seem to have read past the
> second paragraph.


Indeed.

The numbers in the OP are based on a mathematical model. Any model is only as good as the assumptions that go into it. Deaths from covid probably do exceed the ommonly reported numbers, but the actual number is not certain at this point.

A recent update from the CDC

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7015a4.htm

"During January 26, 2020–February 27, 2021, an estimated 545,600–660,200 more persons than expected died in the United States from all causes (Figure). The estimated number of excess deaths peaked during the weeks ending April 11, 2020, August 1, 2020, and January 2, 2021. Approximately 75%–88% of excess deaths were directly associated with COVID-19. Excluding deaths directly associated with COVID-19, an estimated 63,700–162,400 more persons than expected died from other causes."

See this for provisional deaths by cause (provisional because final numbers won't be available for a while. It also will not include covid deaths so far in 2021).

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2778234