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Posted by: Concrete Zipper ( )
Date: March 05, 2022 11:12PM

Hi everybody,

The moderation team has asked me how to handle discussion of the current crisis in Ukraine. Here's my answer: although that does veer into politics, it's a major world event and humanitarian disaster so I think our posters will need to talk about it.

As long as people can be civil about it and avoid party politics, then you are free to discuss Russia's attack on Ukraine. You are free to criticize that bastard, Vladimir Putin, and even compare him to other genocidal maniacs from history. Feel free to criticize Russia, but try to remember that many of the common people there are stuck living in a dictatorship with access to little but Putin propaganda.

Please don't abuse this privilege or we'll have to go back to staying away from politics completely. As always, the moderators will remove partisan politics, bickering and pettiness. They will also remove misinformation (whether deliberate or accidental) as well as outright disinformation. I will not let this forum be used to propagate engineered falsehoods.

CZ (admin)

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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: March 05, 2022 11:24PM

Various NATO nations have provide US-built shoulder-mounted "Javelin" anti-armor rockets to Ukraine. Here's a short article which describes its operation, with an embedded video from the manufacturer.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/javelin-wrecking-putins-army-heres-how-anti-tank-weapon-works

And on a lighter (non-political, honest!) side:

https://i1.wp.com/www.powerlineblog.com/ed-assets/2022/03/IMG_2898.jpg?w=722&ssl=1

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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: March 05, 2022 11:32PM

....to raise money for Ukrainian hosts with (obviously) no intention of staying in them.

https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2022/03/05/thousands-book-airbnbs-in-ukraine-raising-1-9-million-for-hosts/

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Posted by: catnip ( )
Date: March 06, 2022 12:57AM

That strikes me as a remarkably sensible idea, to help our Ukrainian allies.

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Posted by: Tevai ( )
Date: March 06, 2022 05:14PM

Topping.

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: March 06, 2022 05:28PM

Thanks, CZ. I have to admit that the situation in Ukraine has me very worried, and I appreciate the opportunity to discuss it.

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Posted by: onthedownlow ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 12:52PM

HEY GUYS!!! It's "Rumors of wars and wars" Look to the signs man. The time is nigh, get to Zion and give all your valuables in obedience to the law of consecration, thus saithe onthedownlow of hosts.

Slackers! Namaste.

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Posted by: Elder Berry ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 03:34PM

Omg. Hilarious.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 02:15PM

There's no competing Cold War ideological battle going on here.

This is old-style "I want it, I take it, now try and stop me" that has existed from time immemorial.

Putin has gone to great lengths to not just court far-right fascist types in the West, but also evangelicals and other far right religious groups in both Europe and America.

Putin has "sold" post-Soviet Russia as the last bastion of "white Christendom" against the "dark hordes." Does he himself believe any of this? Probably not, but he's used it to get support in the West. Some religious fundies are already talking about how Putin fits in with their latest eschatological biblical predictions.

What does the amoral psychopath V.V. Putin actually want? It's really simple. He's afraid of a Slavic country like Ukraine with deep historical, social, and familial ties to Russia becoming a modern democracy and living under the rule of law. It's "Game Over" for Putin and his cronies if that happens in Russia.

That's why reason and common sense won't work with Putin. He'll do whatever he needs to do to become the new de facto "Tsar Of All The Russias" -- to keep himself in power.

Don't be surprised if he sets off a high-altitude atomic bomb to generate a massive EMP over Ukraine and southeastern Europe -- or worse -- just to get his way.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/08/2022 02:16PM by anybody.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 03:25PM

True, anybody, that is what he is doing. But that doesn't explain the reasons behind his move, which is the first step in stopping him.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 03:44PM

But I think he's getting older, he's pushing seventy, and if he's going to do it, he might as well do it now. He's been fuming about it for thirty years, tried assassination (dioxin), a stooge in Ukraine (who was overthrown), a stooge in America (who didn't end the sanctions and get the US out of NATO), internal strife in Europe (Brexit, Farage, Le Pen, AfD, etc), and since none of that worked, he might as well use brute force.

https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putins-new-ukraine-essay-reflects-imperial-ambitions/

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 04:16PM

Again, I agree on Putin's character and actions.

But what is his strategic objective? Obtain international recognition for the breakaway provinces, add the southern corridor to Odessa, both of the above plus the installation of a neutral government in Kiev, occupy and annex the whole country, or absorb the country as a first step towards Poland or the Balts?

Unless we can answer that question, we don't know if "reason and common sense won't work with Putin." More importantly, we don't know how to motivate those around him to split from him.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 04:27PM

This is Putin's non-Communist successor to the USSR:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Union_State.


In his infamous essay and other speeches, Putin has said Ukraine is not a real country, Russians and Ukrainians are the same people (this isn't new, goes back centuries to Imperial Russia, Kievan Rus, etc), and other leading Russian government officials have said the same thing.

Russia, Belorussia, and Ukraine are the big three Russias in "all the Russias."


Putin doesn't see democracy movements the same way. The Arab Spring, all the "colour" revolutions in former East Bloc or Soviet satellite countries are CIA plots to diminish and put down Russia. No one really "wants" democracy, it's a scam, etc. If it wasn't for the evil West, Russia would be great and powerful again, ya ya ya. Major paranoia.


You have to remember Putin was a shy, short (5'6" adult) kid from a poor family with questionable parentage (people aren't sure if he's illegitimate, one woman who says she's his mom has photos of him as a kid, raised by grandparents) who was bullied and dreamed of being a super spy as in a popular series of Soviet spy films. His grandfather had worked for Lenin and Stalin and had some connections to get into Moscow State University. He was a Lt. Col. in the KGB East Berlin when the Berlin Wall fell, not in the top echelon, would have retired maybe as a colonel, and his world was shattered. He had to go back home to St. Petersburg (not the one in Florida) and start over. All of his close people are ex-KGB and street thugs from the St. Petersburg underworld.

I think his "mission" is to "make Russia great again" like a bloated mango Mussolini we all know -- only he's not as dumb...and a lot more ruthless and scary.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/08/2022 04:47PM by anybody.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 04:54PM

anybody Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I think his "mission" is to "make Russia great
> again"

Yes, that's clear. But what precisely does that mean in the terms outlined above? Would he be content with a puppet government in Ukraine as in Belorus or does he want to occupy and annex Ukraine?

If the latter, he brought the wrong army.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 06:23PM

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> anybody Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > I think his "mission" is to "make Russia great
> > again"
>
> Yes, that's clear. But what precisely does that
> mean in the terms outlined above? Would he be
> content with a puppet government in Ukraine as in
> Belorus or does he want to occupy and annex
> Ukraine?
>
> If the latter, he brought the wrong army.


You're right about the "wrong" army :)

Going by what intelligence analysts are saying, it seems Putin doesn't get the truth from advisors who are only allowed to tell him what he wants to hear, and the invasion was only expected to last a few days. The plan was to take Kyiv and install a puppet government (probably under ousted Victor Yanukovych). 200K troops are not enough to take over and occupy a hostile country as big as Texas. You'd need an entire army group of a couple of million at least. They are also commenting on the poor state of trucks and other vehicles that are breaking down, and a force mostly made of poorly trained young draftees who are from rural or minority non-ethnic Russian regions. Since that plan is out the window, they are resorting to bombing civilian areas to create panic and force Ukraine to surrender.


Putin has also made statements about not allowing Ukraine to have self-government in the future (i.e. direct rule from Moscow as part of Russia).


Either way, Putin is not going to back down unless he is made to by force.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/08/2022 06:38PM by anybody.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 06:54PM

Apparently, here are the options Putin is presenting to Ukraine:

1. Renounce NATO and EU membership (it's in the Ukrainian Constitution), cede eastern provinces to Russia or accept them as independent, accept annexation of Crimea

2. Russia simply takes over Ukraine and sets up a puppet government or makes it part of Russia.

3. The war doesn't stop until Ukraine complies.

https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukraine-war-russia-will-reach-its-ukraine-objectives-either-via-talks-or-war-vladimir-putin-2807268

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 07:36PM

Yes, that is what I am getting at.

Finland and Austria were neutralized by common agreement between the Soviet Union and the western allies, which is why the Soviets withdrew their occupation forces in the mid-1950s. Both countries lived according to that agreement straight through to the present.

When the USSR voluntarily disorganized 30 years ago, it did so with assurances from Washington that NATO would not move farther east than Germany. The presumption was that Eastern Europe would function basically like Finland and Austria. But of course democracies do what their people want and don't necessarily honor their countries' commitments, so NATO has marched to the doors of historical Russia. I'm confident that Putin and his fellow travelers are trying to insist that NATO stop moving East.

So where are we? Putin himself has to go. He's proved himself a war criminal and a profoundly destabilizing presence. But once he's pushing up real or metaphorical daisies, the West must strike a new deal with the new Russian government. What does that look like? Are Ukraine and Georgia going to be admitted to NATO? How about Finland?

Those questions need to be addressed now, even as we try to defeat and humiliate Putin and his militaristic allies.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 08:28PM

I don't think the Ukrainians are going to agree to an Austria/Finland type agreement. Whatever fraternal religious or Slavic feelings they had for Russians are gone. They are never going to forgive Russia for this.

There are rumours about Putin being ill, but I doubt that.

His ex-underworld inner circle also think like he does, so they aren't going to assassinate him.

One or more of the lesser oligarchs might be able to do it, but it will be almost impossible.

Putin will probably die like Stalin, all alone on the floor.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 03/08/2022 08:40PM by anybody.

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Posted by: Susan I/S ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 10:09PM

I agree with both of you. I think that in many ways humiliation, real or perceived, has shaped the man he is today. It started with his sketchy childhood and the fall of the wall in Germany was personally devastating. Interesting article about his role in Dresden -

https://www.rbth.com/politics_and_society/2017/08/08/everything-you-ever-wanted-to-know-about-putins-work-in-east-germany_818928

A link from that goes to an interview he did, his nickname in school was Platov, interesting choice. Reminds me of someone calling themselves Baron. Putin certainly does live like a Czar even if he hides a lot of it by not putting it in his own name. Interesting that they are restoring some of the Imperial buildings now like the last home of Nicholas II outside of St. Petersburg. His insecurities are amusing (like his dogs) even though the way he lashes out because of them certainly is not. No matter how much gilding he tries to put on, he will always be a gutter thug. And he knows it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/27/style/alexander-palace-russia-restoration.html



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/08/2022 10:11PM by Susan I/S.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:06AM

No IVF back in 1950s Soviet Russia...

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vera_Putina

Vera Nikolaevna Putina (Russian: Вера Николаевна Путина; born 6 September 1926) is a woman who has since 1999 stated that Vladimir Putin ("Vova") is her son. The woman's claims contrast with Putin's official biography, which states that Putin's parents died before he became president.[1][2] The Telegraph concluded that while the woman might be simply wrong or part of a public relations effort, the story "identifies the holes in the known story of Mr Putin's past". The official story is that Putin's parents were already in their forties when Putin was born, which leaves a gap of over fifteen years since the births of their previous sons, Oleg and Viktor, neither of whom survived childhood. Details of the first ten years of Putin's life are scarce in his autobiography, especially when compared with other world leaders."[2]

Putina lives in the village of Metekhi, about 18 kilometers East of Gori, Georgia. Putina says that Putin's father is a Russian mechanic, Platon Privalov, who got Vera pregnant while he was married to another woman. A "Vladmir Putin" was registered at Metekhi school in 1959–1960. Records show that his stated nationality is Georgian.[2] Putina married a Georgian soldier Giorgi Osepahvili. Her husband pressured her to abandon her son, Putin.[1][2][3] In December 1960, she delivered "Vova" back to his grandparents in Russia. Putina believes that the St. Petersburg-based "parents" referred to in Putin's official biography adopted her son from his grandparents.[1][2][3]

Through her contacts, she learned that Putin had become a KGB officer. In 1999, she spotted Putin on television.[1] Putina says that Russian and Georgian people visited her village to pressure her to remain silent. A school teacher, who says she taught Putin, stated that she too had been threatened. Putina says she is ready to do DNA tests.[2] Russian journalist Artyom Borovik's plane crash coincided with the documentary he was making about Putin's childhood, including a report about Vera Putina.[1][2][4] Italian journalist Antonio Russo was reportedly also interested in Vera Putina before he was murdered.[2

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:45AM

Yeah, I have no doubt. Sociopaths are a dime a dozen, particularly in the upper reaches of most of the world's governments. You can just diagnose them from their behavior and then assume the sort of childhood they likely had.

If you're in to that sort of thing, the first volume of the Montefiore biography of Stalin is eye-opening, to put it mildly.

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Posted by: Tyson Dunn ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 02:39PM

It echoes the Cossack general, Count Matvei Ivanovich Platov (Платов), but it is also a mere shortening from what should be his actual patronymic (Platonovich, Платонович), if Vera Putina's claims are true.

Tyson

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Posted by: Susan I/S ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 08:36PM

Interesting. The chances of a DNA test are 0 and 0. I would like to watch the movie Putins mama but I can't find anything with English subtitles. I know you do a lot of languages Ty, how good is your Russian :)

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 10:24PM

Three quick points.

First, the war probably won't end soon. That's a problem for the west because it reduces the resources available to check Chinese power.

Second, Ukraine definitely won't opt for a Finnish solution. In fact, Finland won't settle for that anymore either since Moscow has proved that it isn't a dependable status. The irony for Russia is that Putin's effort to limit NATO's ambit may end up expanding it not only in Ukraine but also in Scandinavia. That is incidentally not necessarily a good thing for the West since a buffer region gives both sides more margin to think before attacking/counterattacking.

Third, the oligarchs aren't relevant here. On security matters Putin relies on military people and especially his buddies in the FSB. If anyone can change the political situation, it is they.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 12:48AM

what he wants to hear.

https://thehill.com/opinion/international/593880-a-retired-russian-generals-criticism-may-signal-a-larger-problem-for


Putin is a dictator with absolute power and no one around him can speak truth to power.


The state of his invasion force speaks volumes.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:04AM

Don't count the senior-most generals out just yet, for Brutus was the archetypical yes-man. But the more likely source of a coup is the FSB since his old buddies there are his closest confidants.

Meanwhile, if the following report is correct Zelensky sees exactly where the end-game will be. In short, Ukraine does not join NATO and discusses control of the occupied east and Crimea. I'll go out on a limb and suggest he may cede Crimea to Russia because it really is Russian--Kruschev assigned it to Ukraine in 1964 for administrative reasons--in exchange for the reversion of the eastern provinces to Ukraine.

https://news.yahoo.com/ukraines-zelensky-says-cooled-joining-181721289.html?fr=sycsrp_catchall

What Zelensky appears to be offering is a Finnish deal with territorial adjustments. That's a good negotiating stance, one that the West can organize around and which gives Kremlin insiders a basis for eventually moving against the king.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:12AM

I'm not so sure.

Big Question.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/09/2022 01:15AM by anybody.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:51AM

I think they might. The Austrians did after they were invaded and bombed, so too the Finns.

And besides: as the article says, NATO itself is now quietly discouraging hopes for Ukrainian accession. The world may be rediscovering the value of buffers now that Francis Fukuyama's book about The End of History has proved so remarkably wrong.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 03:52PM

https://theweek.com/russo-ukrainian-war/1011020/war-in-ukraine-is-a-metaphysical-battle-against-a-civilization-built-on

Patriarch Kirill, the leader of the Russian Orthodox Church, delivered a sermon Sunday in which he referred to the war in Ukraine as a "metaphysical" struggle against a godless international order.

He argued that war broke out after eight years of "attempts to destroy what exists in the Donbas," because the pro-Russian separatist republics embodied "a fundamental rejection of the so-called values ​​that are offered today by those who claim world power." Kirill did not mention that a majority of Ukrainians are also Orthodox.

This world order, Kirill said, offers "excess consumption" and "visible 'freedom'" to any nation that proves its loyalty by "hold[ing] a gay parade." Kyiv hosts an annual gay pride parade.

In 2015, Russian President Vladimir Putin signed into law a ban on gay "propaganda," a term that included pride parades and exposing minors to information about homosexuality. Gay sex remains decriminalized in Russia.

Putin frequently accuses the West of "denying moral principles and all traditional identities" while portraying Russia as the guardian of "the Christian values that constitute the basis of Western civilization."

Only around 6 percent of Russians attend church regularly. Russia also has the highest abortion rate in the world.

Kirill, a strong supporter of Putin, urged his flock on Sunday not to "put up with … those who promote sin" — specifically homosexuality — "as an example or as one of the models of human behavior."

He also said Orthodox Christians who oppose the war are "humbly follow[ing] the path that the powers that be show them."

Kirill delivered this sermon on Forgiveness Sunday, a day on which Orthodox Christians prepare for the penitential season of Lent and ask forgiveness of one another.

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 07:59PM

Interesting. Well, at least they aren’t blaming bad weather on the LGBTQ. Meanwhile, last Friday Utah governor Cox vetoed an anti-trans youth bill. Republicans have a veto-proof majority, but more than enough R legislators voted to sustain the veto.

I was pleasantly surprised.

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Posted by: dagny ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 08:38PM

I know what you mean. The Idaho legislature has been on a crazy binge about LGBTQ transgender folks, book and librarian rights bans, history control, gerrymandering, abortion rights and voting rights, etc. I think they just banned drop boxes for voting. Idaho has had zero issues with voting.

They are still doing everything they can to waste taxpayer dollars over mask mandate grudges. We have some seriously fascist leaning folks running in the next election. It's darn scary.

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Posted by: dagny ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 08:31PM

I was disgusted reading about the Russian Orthodox Church too.

They value staying in power over doing what is right.

Although many will disagree, religion is a tremendous tool of the right. They thwart progress and are on the wrong side of history with few exceptions.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 08:47PM

dagny Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I was disgusted reading about the Russian Orthodox
> Church too.
>
> They value staying in power over doing what is
> right.
>
> Although many will disagree, religion is a
> tremendous tool of the right. They thwart progress
> and are on the wrong side of history with few
> exceptions.

You're absolutely right.

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Posted by: bradley ( )
Date: March 08, 2022 09:17PM

If any of you are considering converting to Islam, now is the time. Muslims have been replaced as the world's bad guys.

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Posted by: Cold-Dodger ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 05:19AM

Please do not advocate policies that end humanity, no matter how much you wish Putin would drop dead.

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Posted by: blindguy ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 09:25AM

...that Putin, struggling in Ukraine and faltering at home, will use his nuclear arsenal against Ukraine, Europe, the United States, or all three. I have heard reports (not verified) that Mr. Putin believes that if the weapons are available, he should be able to use them. I have also heard (again, not verified) that Mr. Putin has stated that he believes that the economic sanctions imposed against him by the U.S. and Europe are an act of war.

I hope I'm wrong about all of this but only time will tell.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 12:26PM

We need to let Putin know %100 if he attacks Ukraine or Europe with atomic weapons, Moscow and St. Petersburg are going to be wiped off the map.

Bullies don't back down unless they are forced to.

Soviet Russia armed North Korea and North Vietnam, and we should arm Ukraine and give Putin a dose of the same medicine.

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Posted by: Kathleen ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 12:34PM

Unless Putin trips and falls on a bullet, nuclear catastrophe is my fear. I believe that he will flex that, his last muscle, if he is backed into a corner or faces humiliation.

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Posted by: anybody ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:12PM

Yes, it's a risk. A big risk.

But someone has to stand up to him.

Assuming that his commanders will carry out such an insane order, that is.

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Posted by: Brother Of Jerry ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 02:43PM

What if he doesn't use a nuclear bomb, but a Ukrainian reactor "accidentally" melts down. Plausible deniability - hey, we didn't do it, or we didn't know what we were doing.

Then what do you do?

What if Putin figures that if he loses, he is dead anyway, so what does he care if Moscow and St Pete get obliterated.

And how would this be limited to two cities?


The problem with perfect plans is that the other side doesn't follow the part they were supposed to play in the plan.

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Posted by: Kathleen ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 01:21PM

Yes, someone has to stand up to him.

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Posted by: Elder Berry ( )
Date: March 09, 2022 03:40PM

One lesson of history is that power unchecked produces societies of the enslaved. It is what happens with humans. Hopefully Putin can be checked if not checkmated.

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Posted by: kentish ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 01:07PM

Watching the news from Ukraine brings back so many memories. Some time in late 1943 or early 1944 a second major evacuation of women and children took in London as it faced the V1 and V2 attacks. I remember standing for what seemed hours at the local railway station, gas mask over my shoulder and a name tag on my lapel, waiting with a massive crowd for trains to take us to safety in the north west of England. We were bussed on cobbled streets to row house neighborhoods to stand in family groups while locals picked us over to see who they would or would not take in.

We remained there until a family member was killed in Normandy in July 1944, then we returned to London where my father had remained. The bombed out houses around us were our playground and I remember they had a peculiar smell all their own and they often still showed evidences of the lives that had taken place in them.

It is hard to watch the news from Ukraine. The ruins, the displaced people, the innocent lives shattered is so real.

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Posted by: Kathleen ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 02:00PM

So you were a a little 6-ish year-old boy? Oh, gosh, that makes me sad, Kentish.

So glad you're here with us now.

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Posted by: Kentish ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 04:46PM

A little younger, Kathleen. I have no sense of the day to day of the war years but very clear memories of incidents that were big enough to stick in the memory. I have a very clear memory of one of those V1s streaking across the sky and subsequently saw the place it dropped. Smells can often linger long after other things fade.

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Posted by: Humberto ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 01:43PM

I've been reading/listening to Yale professor Timothy Snyder, and find him very interesting. For anyone who might be interested in what an expert on eastern European history has to say...

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Posted by: Tevai ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 01:54PM

Humberto Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I've been reading/listening to Yale professor
> Timothy Snyder, and find him very interesting. For
> anyone who might be interested in what an expert
> on eastern European history has to say...

My opinion as well.

He is the author of a number of very well written and totally explanatory books, and he can also be viewed in many different videos on YouTube.

He makes understanding modern (pre-WWI, to this day today) history accessible to "everyone," which is especially important right now--as we are all living through highly important world events each new day.

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Posted by: valkyriequeen ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 07:44PM

I agree with what Mitt Romney said today. He said that we should not be afraid of Putin; rather, Putin should be afraid of us.

Putin is nothing but a bully who wants everyone to “ bow their heads and say yes”. He thrives on fear.

If you are bullied, you don’t give the creep a plate of homemade cookies and say “I’m sorry..please can we get along? Please don’t retaliate against me.

No sir! Admiration to the Ukrainians for their bravery and stamina! They deserve all the help they can get.

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Posted by: bradley ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 08:29PM

What if we look past the media circus and follow the money? Who stands to gain? The defense contractors? Doubtful, it’s not that much money. Probably less than the church has.

I think Russia will win bigly through sanctions. They are a huge supplier of natural resources. How do you set up a cartel for that? Start a war in cooperation with western media. They play the bad guy, we blame them for getting screwed economically. Look for embargoes in cooperation with China, raising commodity prices through the roof.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 09:41PM

bradley Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> What if we look past the media circus and follow
> the money? Who stands to gain? The defense
> contractors? Doubtful, it’s not that much money.
> Probably less than the church has.

Good analysis, indicating that this is not an military-industrial-complex plot.


------------------
> I think Russia will win bigly through sanctions.
> They are a huge supplier of natural resources.

Oil. They are a big supplier of oil. The rest is a rounding error.


------------------
> How
> do you set up a cartel for that?

First you need the right market conditions. Those existed in the 1970s but the proliferation of oil production around the world has made it almost impossible for OPEC or any other cartel to wield much power.

So the answer is you don't.


-------------------
> Start a war in
> cooperation with western media. They play the bad
> guy, we blame them for getting screwed
> economically.

Now you are back in lalaland. The US, China, and the other big economies are all massive consumers of hydrocarbons. They will not cooperate with Russia in driving up the price of oil.


-----------------
> Look for embargoes in cooperation
> with China, raising commodity prices through the
> roof.

You clearly have no idea how dependent on foreign oil China is.* What incentive does a vast consumer of oil have to support a sustained increase in the price of oil?







*In 2020 China's imports totaled $176 billion, more than twice the level of US imports at $82 billion.

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Posted by: bradley ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 11:09PM

A Russia-China axis for the purpose of a stranglehold of certain commodities like nickel and steel and rare earths probably wouldn't work long term. High prices would make mines profitable elsewhere. Biden's gift of Afghanistan to China makes me suspicious. Those minerals are valuable. What if BRICS could pull a DeBeers?

A long squeeze is not required to finish the dollar. Without the dollar as the world's reserve currency, all of those dollars the fed printed will have to be paid for. Earlier attempts to end the petrodollar failed. Maybe this is their big move.

Anyway, I'm grasping at straws. Trying to make sense of a situation that is anything but sensible. I find an old fashioned hustle preferable to the threat of nuclear annihilation.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 11:40PM

Good discussion.

China is already locking up most of the world's rare earths. Those are more amenable to cartelization than oil is although China's monopolization is designed primarily for the more immediate needs of its domestic industrialization. Western sanctions will reduce Russia's ability to sell oil to the world but that may mean China gets that oil at lower prices. But the two can't work together over the long term since their interests are diametrically opposed.

Regarding reserves, I think this probably bolster's the dollar's position since it underscores the risks to China (the only credible rival) of Western sanctions. Aware of China's maltreatment of the Uyghurs and its lustful gaze at Taiwan, most countries with significant reserves are probably less interested in the RMB for the foreseeable future.

I think the explanation for the war is straightforward: Russia wants to weaken NATO and ensure that Ukraine doesn't join that organization. It's in Putin's interests to float all sorts of doomsday balloons since that undermines Western unanimity. Assuming that he ultimately wants to avoid nuclear war--a high probability although not a certainty--there may well be a solution that involves the neutralization of Ukraine and perhaps recognition of the independence of the Russian regions of that country.

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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: March 10, 2022 11:51PM

Disclaimer: This claims to catalogue Russian equipment and materiel losses, most including photographs. If this is propaganda, it's labor-intensive, but shows hyuge amounts of vehicles, armament, aircraft and other war materiel destroyed, disabled, or captured.

I think it's an English-language, Turkish-sourced armaments newsletter, perhaps affiliated with the Turkish arms industry, as special attention is given to Turkish-built drones. All "kills" are dated, and the page claims to be updated daily. If this is true--I sure hope it is--well, Vlad, read it and weep.

https://www.oryxspioenkop.com/2022/02/attack-on-europe-documenting-equipment.html

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Posted by: Kathleen ( )
Date: March 11, 2022 12:38AM

Tonight I read that power has been restored to Chernobyl by request of Putin.

But, International Atomic Energy Agency chief Raphael Grossi sounded skeptical over it.

Has anyone confirmed that Chernobyl has power to keep the fuel rods cool?

It seem that there’s also debate as to whether they’ve cooled enough over the past 35 years or not.

Are there any solid (semisolid) answers to the power restoration and the level of danger if it isn’t? (As if there is a solid answer to anything right now.)

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: March 11, 2022 01:01AM

Big danger. The underlying problem was never solved; they just built a huge concrete sarcophagus over the top of it, and that structure has already exceeded its predicted lifespan. If the containment is breached by weaponry or by natural deterioration, there will be a constant stream of radioactivity emanating from the site indefinitely.

Putin is playing a game here. He intentionally took control of Chernobyl and other nuclear facilities and wants us to know that he is the only person who can guarantee their security. If we forget that, he'll ask for more excitement at the sites and remind us.



ETA:

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/the-very-very-dangerous-risk-of-damaging-chernobyl-in-russia-s-invasion-of-ukraine/ar-AAUgTX0

https://nypost.com/2022/03/09/ukraine-nuclear-company-warns-of-chernobyl-radiation-risk/



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/11/2022 01:07AM by Lot's Wife.

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