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Posted by: elderolddog ( )
Date: April 26, 2023 08:22PM

Perhaps there are other cultures that create anxieties regarding from whom you are descended, but I'm assuming most cultures that revere their ancestors do so because they already know who those worthy ancestors are.

Mormonism allows one to blossom, like a wild rose in a field of barly, just by finding a convenient ancestor.

Here's the promo line used in an ad on a mormon-centric website that I just visited because I'm a sucker for Elder Berry's posts:

"We'll help you discover the ancestors that made you who you are today: Price & Associates professional genealogy researchers have been helping people discover their heritage for more than thirty years."

And if that's not enough, here's an endorsement from a satisfied customer!!

"We had seemingly reached the end of the trail several times as we pursued our family history. But personal consultations with Price Genealogy immediately extended several of our family lines back many generations. We traced one royal line back to 400 A.D. We have now cracked several lines which appeared dead ends. We are excitedly tracing a host of dormant lines. We are so grateful for such sound professional help."

Hopefully you had a tissue handy...

If you're starting to cave in to their siren call, DO NOT read their next blurb!!!

"Price Genealogy traces most family histories back four or five generations without difficulty. With additional assistance from our professional genealogists across the globe, we have successfully traced genealogies back as many as thirty generations – to William the Conqueror, 1066 A.D. and Beyond."


William the freaking Conqueror!!!

Hey, I tried to warn you.

At least I don't need any professional help (Well, I do, but not in this field) because I have it in writing that I am descended from Father Lehi, although maybe they could help figure out if it was through Laman or Lemuel?

From Lehi, it's easy-peasy right on back to Adam and Eve!!



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/26/2023 08:23PM by elderolddog.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 26, 2023 08:25PM

Did you tell them you have a painting of a Neanderthal on your mantle?

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Posted by: elderolddog ( )
Date: April 26, 2023 08:28PM

I had a Neanderthal PAINT my mantle!

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 26, 2023 08:29PM

Keeping it in the family, eh?

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Posted by: elderolddog ( )
Date: April 26, 2023 08:30PM

Who doesn't want the family discount?

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Posted by: caffiend ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 01:31AM

"...we have successfully traced genealogies back as many as thirty generations – to William the Conqueror, 1066 A.D. and Beyond."

The license plate of a man I know is "1066." I asked him about it: he said it was the year he graduated from high school!

When I was little I was shown a family tree that included William the Conqueror. At that age, I was impressed--and puffed up.

Somewhere along the line I realized that didn't affect who I am, or where I was going in life. At some moment of truth, I simply disregarded all of that stuff, and managed to put a pretty decent life together, praise God.

Years later, my father confided that the genealogist had a knack for finding illustrious forebears for his clients. Somewhat related, he also told me about some Christian Science Wednesday testimonies he knew were exaggerated, or even fraudulent.

Now if Genghis Khan were one of my ancestors--that would be quite another matter! The brigands and cattle rustlers of 200 years ago have now been promoted to "honored ancestors." Hagiography of sorts.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 02:35AM

If you have English ancestry, you are almost certainly a descendant of William the Conqueror.

It's a matter of mathematics. You presumably had two parents, four grandparents, eight great grandparents, and so on. Formulaically, that is

# = 2^N, where

# is the number of potential ancestors in any give generation,

N is the number of generations back we are looking.

If we assume you are 40 generations removed from William the Conqueror, # = 2^40, or 1.1 trillion potential ancestors alive in his day.

At that time, by contrast, there were only 1.3 million English, 40 million Europeans, and 390 million earthlings. It follows that anyone with any English ancestry today almost certainly inherits genes from all of the English who lived at that time and managed to reproduce--which is especially likely for William, who had about ten children IIRC.

In fact, the odds are high that any given European alive today numbers William among his ancestors, for 1.1 trillion is a lot larger than 40 million. The Conqueror's descendants will inevitably be widespread all over Western Europe, northern Africa, South Africa, Australia, North America, and a lot of other places. You probably have William's blood through many different lineages.

Chinggis Khan is not out of the picture, either. Assuming 32 generations of temporal separation, you had 4.3 billion potential ancestors in his day. Given that there were only 390 million humans alive then and that he, his wives, his concubines, and his four sons, their wives, and their concubines had dozens if not scores of children spread from Manchuria to the fringes of Vietnam and from Siberia to Central Europe, it is likely that you and any European living today shares in the Great Khan's legacy.

Thus, sadly, the math of population distribution sullies anyone's claims to ancestral greatness.

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Posted by: summer ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 05:39AM

I realized that while doing some of my own family genealogy along my father's line. At what point does it start to not carry much meaning in terms of family relationships? -- for me that happened at about 11 or 12 generations out when a person's descendants start to number in the thousands. But in reality, it's probably a lot sooner than that. I think I find family history more interesting in terms of how people got from there to here given choices that they made.

For TBMs, of course, it just gives them more people to dead dunk.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 12:29PM

"If we assume you are 40 generations removed from William the Conqueror, # = 2^40, or 1.1 trillion potential ancestors alive in his day."

COMMENT: That statement alone tells the thoughtful reader that your analysis has to be incorrect. In the first place, there is no such thing as "potential ancestors." All ancestors are actual, not potential. There may, I suppose, be potential *descendants* of a person, but that is nowhere part of your analysis. (Which is a good thing because that is also a trivial observation, and irrelevant as support for your claim.)

Secondly, there could not be 1.1 trillion ancestors (potential or otherwise) "alive in his day," since such a number wildly exceeds the entire living population at the time. (And even now!) (Unless, of course, you count pre-existent ghosts.)

So, why don't you try to fix this. Here is a hint: The explanation must be based upon how William's line spreads over time throughout the English population through many subsequent generations. So, you have to start with William (or some other historical figure), not with any of his currently existing ancestors. Oh, and any such explanation must be empirical and contingent (intuitively probable), and not *strictly* mathematical.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 01:19PM

Henry, you really must stop saying "I don't understand it therefore it must be wrong."

The analysis I just outlined is ridiculously well-known and you'd be familiar with it if you bothered to google the question. But of course you don't do research, so I'll try to make this easy for you.


--------------
1) Scientific American: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/humans-are-all-more-closely-related-than-we-commonly-think/

Here's my precise argument:

"Imagine counting all your ancestors as you trace your family tree back in time. In the nth generation before the present, your family tree has 2n slots: two for parents, four for grandparents, eight for great-grandparents, and so on. The number of slots grows exponentially. By the 33rd generation—about 800 to 1,000 years ago—you have more than eight billion of them. That is more than the number of people alive today, and it is certainly a much larger figure than the world population a millennium ago."

And here's my precise conclusion:

". . . for people with recent European ancestry. . . researchers using genomic data place the [genetic isopoint] around A.D. 1000."


-----------------
You should read the full article. It's full of interesting information, such as:

"Everyone in Europe is directly descended from [Charlemagne]," who lived in the late 8th century.

And, ". . .the last person from whom everyone on the planet today is descended. . . our most recent common ancestor probably lived no earlier than 1400 B.C. and possibly as recently as A.D. 55."


--------------
2) https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-59041055

"[A] genealogy study suggested that a child born in England in the middle of the 20th Century, who could trace their ancestry back to England in the early 13th Century, would have 80% of the population of the time in their family tree."


-------------
3) https://www.theguardian.com/science/commentisfree/2015/may/24/business-genetic-ancestry-charlemagne-adam-rutherford

"In 2013, geneticists Peter Ralph and Graham Coop showed that all Europeans are descended from exactly the same people. Basically, everyone alive in the ninth century who left descendants is the ancestor of every living European today, including Charlemagne, Drogo, Pippin and Hugh. Quel dommage."

This study should be interpreted, obviously, as independent confirmation of my approach since it uses DNA analysis to prove the same point.


---------------
Again, I don't know why you don't check your logic before writing. You don't need to go to the Carnegie Library anymore. Five minutes and a search engine will do the trick.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 02:23PM

First, I did not disagree with your conclusion. I merely pointed out that YOUR analysis was obviously faulty and nonsensical, for reasons clearly stated. (e.g. there is obviously not "1.1 trillion potential ancestors (of William) alive in his day."

In a cursory review of your links, not a single one either followed or supported your analysis. That tells me that you did not understand what you read. Otherwise, you would have provided a coherent explanation for your conclusion, instead of a bunch of nonsense. That is why I said, "Try again."

I repeat, try again. If you have to use informal, Googled authority, fine. Just provide a coherent, logical, explanation for your conclusion. If it is right--or even minimally logically coherent -- I will say so. But so far, all we have is obvious nonsense!

Oh, and you might want to consult actual professional genealogists and/or geneticists instead of popular "science communicators."

Good luck! If you can't do it, fine. Just admit that and ask me kindly and I will provide it for you! (And, I don't need Google!)

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 05:15PM

You insist on embarrassing yourself yet again. . .

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:48PM

Yes, that's what I thought. You have no response, and no humility to request an explanation. You cannot explain yourself, so you rhetorically attack me.

Again, you argue, "If we assume you are 40 generations removed from William the Conqueror, # = 2^40, or 1.1 trillion potential ancestors alive in his day," then it follows that all those currently existing of English descent are descendants of William. The premise is incoherent because there could not possibly be 1.1 trillion "potential" ancestors, let alone "living" ones "in his day." Moreover, the inference fails as well. So, the argument fails. It is as simple as that, even if the conclusion happens to be correct. And you cannot fix it? That could only mean a lack of understanding. So, just say that.

Where is BoJ [Mathematician] when you need him? Or Dagny [Biologist]? Or anyone else?

Yet, it is I that am embarrassing myself?

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:49PM

Yep.

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:02PM

Oh, and you might want to consult actual professional genealogists and/or geneticists instead of popular "science communicators."

In the Scientific American article it quotes geneticist Adam Rutherford, statistician Douglas Rohde, theoretical evolutionary biologist Susanna Manrubia, and geneticist Graham Coop.

The quote from the second source is from Turi King, professor of genetics.

The third link is an article by the aforementioned geneticist Adam Rutherford. It links to articles by geneticists Graham Coop (mentioned above) and Peter Ralph and Mark Thomas

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/biosciences/people/mark-thomas

"Professor Mark Thomas is an internationally recognised leader in Evolutionary Genetics and Ancient DNA. He is a world leading expert in the application of computational models to the distribution of genetic and cultural variation in human populations"

Who are your experts Henry?

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:19PM

The foundation of LW's analysis was the following statement:

"If we assume you are 40 generations removed from William the Conqueror, # = 2^40, or 1.1 trillion potential ancestors alive in his day."

You don't need an expert to see that this statement is manifestly incoherent. Everyone on this Board can see that, even you if you were willing to admit it.

As for your experts and links, I have no problem with them, but they do not express or support the same analysis LW provided, and would not, because it is nonsense.

I am still waiting for a clear, consistent, and coherent statement of explanation as to why all persons having English ancestry today are related to William. Perhaps you can provide it, but I doubt it, notwithstanding your links.

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:40PM

And now you demonstrate that you don't understand her original .
point

She posted "if we assume you are 40 generations removed from William the Conqueror, # = 2^40, or 1.1 trillion potential ancestors alive in his day.

At that time, by contrast, there were only 1.3 million English, 40 million Europeans, and 390 million earthlings. It follows that anyone with any English ancestry today almost certainly inherits genes from all of the English who lived at that time and managed to reproduce--which is especially likely for William, who had about ten children IIRC."

You completely ignore the second part. The post points out that if every person had a completely distinct ancestry, it would require a population of 1.1 trillion people alive at the time of William the Conqueror.
The second part of the post points out that is not possible given the approximate population actually present. The conclusion is that it is almost certain that no one living today has ancestry in which every generation was completely distinct with no common ancestors in previous generations.

As a result, it is possible that most Europeans are somehow descended from William via a somewhat tortuous genealogical line. That is what the statistical analysis shows.

Again Henry, who are your experts claiming otherwise?

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:45PM

Sometimes I don't think Henry is motivated by intellectual interest but rather by personal animus.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 07:16PM

That is not true. I have no personal animosity towards you, and my post did not suggest any such thing.

My interest is solely in intellectual understanding; both my own and that of others. If I am wrong, I want to understand how and why--by logical argument and reason, not by a barrage of rhetorical attacks. Is that too much to ask here on RfM, or are we still in gospel doctrine class, but with a different gospel and different prophets to protect?

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 07:30PM

Nonsense.

You are the board's Walter Mitty. You once told us you had a degree in microbiology, then later admitted that was false. You then told us you had a degree in the philosophy of science, which you later acknowledged was also false. Your latest claim was that your degree was in philosophy, which seems tentatively plausible given the books you read and your abysmal grasp of scientific concepts. But it wasn't intellectual curiosity driving those various misrepresentations: it was ego.

You have likewise embarrassed yourself by demanding, then refusing to read or even watch, information on the localization of brain activity; by insisting, in your usual patronizing tone, that Dobbs would not permit any national abortion regime; and now, by refusing obdurately to acknowledge what is well-established, even elementary, genetic science. You ask for BoJ and dagny to opine on the topic yet fail to recognize that [|] is of the same caliber as they.

I could redouble the sources; I could use, for example, David Reich, but you would refuse to accept his use of exactly the analytical framework I presented. There's no point in debating with you, for you've time and again proved egotistically unwilling to see the light of day.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 07:09PM

"At that time, by contrast, there were only 1.3 million English, 40 million Europeans, and 390 million earthlings. It follows that anyone with any English ancestry today almost certainly inherits genes from all of the English who lived at that time and managed to reproduce--which is especially likely for William, who had about ten children IIRC."

COMMENT: That does NOT follow! In the first place, there is no stated relation between the 1.1 trillion "potential ancestors" of any given current English person, and the 1.3 million that existed in William's day. What is relevant is how William's line, being one of 1.3 million, managed to permeate the entire current population. That *does* have a similar story to genetics, of course, but the story is not found by pointing out how many ancestors a person would have given 40 generations, any more than a current given biological trait would be explained by pointing out how many potential evolutionary paths might have been taken. What is needed in both cases is an explanation as to how a particular trait, or line of descent, became dominant or permeated the population.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 07:38PM

I realized that I unfairly left out any comment to this part of your post:

"You completely ignore the second part. The post points out that if every person had a completely distinct ancestry, it would require a population of 1.1 trillion people alive at the time of William the Conqueror."

COMMENT: LW never made such an argument. Rather, she only pointed out the number for a single ancestral line. Moreover, it is not true. No ancestral line suggests any number of people that must be "alive at the time of WC." Ancestors come and go.
_____________________________________________-

The second part of the post points out that is not possible given the approximate population actually present. The conclusion is that it is almost certain that no one living today has ancestry in which every generation was completely distinct with no common ancestors in previous generations.

COMMENT: Again, that was not included in LW's argument. However, even still that is not enough, because it only explains overlapping ancestors, which is obvious anyway. It doesn't explain how such overlapping occurs and manifests itself in the stated conclusion, i.e. that all English persons are likely descended from WC. We need an account of how that happens.
_______________________________________________----

As a result, it is possible that most Europeans are somehow descended from William via a somewhat tortuous genealogical line. That is what the statistical analysis shows.

COMMENT: That is a weak conclusion. If you filled in the "somehow" you would have a strong conclusion. That is what I am looking for.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 07:41PM

You are so out of your depth. . .

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 09:25PM

>That is a weak conclusion. If you filled in the "somehow" you would have a strong conclusion. That is what I am looking for

The "somehow" is different for everybody.
For example, take FDR. His parents were sixth cousins. Eleanor was his fifth cousin, once removed. If FDR's children were to trace their family tree back far enough, they would thus find at least 2 places where different branches combined at the same ancestor. For other people, the point at which different branches combined would be different.

Once again Henry, who are your experts to refute this? Clearly, you are not one.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 09:26AM

The "somehow" is different for everybody.
For example, take FDR. His parents were sixth cousins. Eleanor was his fifth cousin, once removed. If FDR's children were to trace their family tree back far enough, they would thus find at least 2 places where different branches combined at the same ancestor. For other people, the point at which different branches combined would be different.

COMMENT: The genealogical details are different for everyone to be sure, but the *theory of descent* (or principle), which explains how WC's line (or any other line) combines with all other lines over generations is not. If you want to explain how it is that most current English can in principle trace their line back to WC (or anyone else living during the same time period), then you need to understand that theory. This was the whole point of LW's proposed explanation.

The answer is essentially the same (but not identical with) the theory as to how a new favorable physical trait, as manifest in a genetic mutation, can spread through a population. A biologist might provide numerous examples of evolutional traits, with proposed histories, but such examples do not explain the descent and genetic mechanisms and variables in play as to how any given existing trait comes to permeate an entire population. Same here.

So, before you attack my credentials, perhaps you should provide the more fundamental theoretical explanation. Until you do that, you have not explained the likely line of connection between WC and *every* current English person.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 09:30AM

Experts for what conclusion? That LW's analysis is wrong? or more charitable, incomplete? That is just obvious. What else?

"The "somehow" is different for everybody.
For example, take FDR. His parents were sixth cousins. Eleanor was his fifth cousin, once removed. If FDR's children were to trace their family tree back far enough, they would thus find at least 2 places where different branches combined at the same ancestor. For other people, the point at which different branches combined would be different."

COMMENT: The genealogical details are different for everyone to be sure, but the *theory of descent* (or principle), which explains how WC's line (or any other line) combines with all other lines over generations is not. If you want to explain how it is that most current English can in principle trace their line back to WC (or anyone else living during the same time period), then you need to understand that theory. This was the whole point of LW's proposed explanation.

The answer is essentially the same (but not identical with) the theory as to how a new favorable physical trait, as manifest in a genetic mutation, can spread through a population. A biologist might provide numerous examples of evolutional traits, with proposed histories, but such examples do not explain the descent and genetic mechanisms and variables in play as to how any given existing trait comes to permeate an entire population. Same here.

So, before you attack my credentials, perhaps you should provide the more fundamental theoretical explanation. Until you do that, you have not explained the likely line of connection between WC and *every* current English person.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 02:18PM

"Attack [your] credentials?"

What credentials are those, Henry?

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 05:45PM

>The answer is essentially the same (but not identical with) the theory as to how a new favorable physical trait, as manifest in a genetic mutation, can spread through a population. A biologist might provide numerous examples of evolutional traits, with proposed histories, but such examples do not explain the descent and genetic mechanisms and variables in play as to how any given existing trait comes to permeate an entire population. Same here.


The answer, Henry, is basic evolutionary biology. If a mutation produces a trait that provides a survival advantage, then the recipient of that trait is more likely to survive to pass it along to his offspring. Those offspring in turn are more likely to survive to pass it along to their offspring, and so on and so on. Eventually, after enough generations, a majority of the population will have that trait. At that point, most matings will involve individuals with that trait, and the prevalence will increase more rapidly. As long as the trait continues to provide a survival advantage, it will eventually be present throughout most of not all of the population.

How many generations that will take depends on how large the survival advantage is.

Specifically relating to the question of in this thread about shared ancestry, the concept of genetic isopoint becomes important. A definition and simple explanation can be found here

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Identical_ancestors_point

"In genetic genealogy, the identical ancestors point (IAP), or all common ancestors (ACA) point, or genetic isopoint, is the most recent point in a given population's past such that each individual alive at this point either has no living descendants, or is the ancestor of every individual alive in the present. This point lies further in the past than the population's most recent common ancestor (MRCA)"

However, a much better and more technical description can be found here

https://journals.plos.org/plosbiology/article?id=10.1371/journal.pbio.1001555

Skipping past all of the technical sections (interesting as they are - and I would suggest that you don't skip it), they come to this conclusion

"We have shown that typical pairs of individuals drawn from across Europe have a good chance of sharing long stretches of identity by descent, even when they are separated by thousands of kilometers. We can furthermore conclude that pairs of individuals across Europe are reasonably likely to share common genetic ancestors within the last 1,000 years, and are certain to share many within the last 2,500 years. From our numerical results, the average number of genetic common ancestors from the last 1,000 years shared by individuals living at least 2,000 km apart is about 1/32 (and at least 1/80); between 1,000 and 2,000ya they share about one; and between 2,000 and 3,000 ya they share above 10. Since the chance is small that any genetic material has been transmitted along a particular genealogical path from ancestor to descendent more than eight generations deep [8]—about .008 at 240 ya, and 2.5×10−7 at 480 ya—this implies, conservatively, thousands of shared genealogical ancestors in only the last 1,000 years even between pairs of individuals separated by large geographic distances. At first sight this result seems counterintuitive. However, as 1,000 years is about 33 generations, and 233≈1010 is far larger than the size of the European population, so long as populations have mixed sufficiently, by 1,000 years ago everyone (who left descendants) would be an ancestor of every present-day European. Our results are therefore one of the first genomic demonstrations of the counterintuitive but necessary fact that all Europeans are genealogically related over very short time periods, and lends substantial support to models predicting close and ubiquitous common ancestry of all modern humans [7]."

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 06:05PM

https://isogg.org/wiki/Most_recent_common_ancestor

"Tracing one person's lineage back in time forms a binary tree of parents, grandparents, great-grandparents and so on. However, the number of individuals in such an ancestor tree grows exponentially and will eventually become impossibly high. For example, an individual human alive today would, over 30 generations, going back to about the High Middle Ages, have 230 or about 1.07 billion ancestors, more than the total world population at the time.[1]

In reality, an ancestor tree is not a binary tree. Rather, pedigree collapse changes the binary tree to a directed acyclic graph.

Consider the formation, one generation at a time, of the ancestor graph of all currently living humans with no descendants. Start with living people with no descendants at the bottom of the graph. Adding the parents of all those individuals at the top of the graph will connect (half-) siblings via one or two common ancestors, their parent(s). Adding the next generation will connect all first cousins. As each of the following generations of ancestors is added to the top of the graph, the relationship between more and more people is mapped (second cousins, third cousins and so on). Eventually a generation is reached where one or more of the many top-level ancestors is an MRCA from whom it is possible to trace a path of direct descendants all the way down to every living person at the bottom generations of the graph.

The MRCA of everyone alive today could thus have co-existed with a large human population, most of whom either have no living descendants today or else are ancestors of a subset of people alive today. The existence of an MRCA does therefore not imply the existence of a population bottleneck or "first couple".

"The MRCA had many contemporary companions of both sexes. Many of these contemporaries left direct descendants, but not all of them left an unbroken link of descendants all the way down to today's population. That is, some contemporaries of the MRCA are ancestors of no one in the current population. The rest of the contemporaries of the MRCA may claim ancestry over a subset of current population, but not the entirety of current population.

Because ancestors of MRCA are by definition also common ancestors, we can continue to find (less recent) common ancestors by pushing further back in time to the MRCA's ancestors. Eventually we reach a point in the past where all humans can be divided into two groups: those who left no descendants today and those who are common ancestors of all living humans today. This point in time is termed the identical ancestors point."


https://isogg.org/wiki/Identical_ancestors_point

An important point from these

"It is incorrect to assume that the MRCA and his/her ancestors passed all their genes down to every person alive today. Because of sexual reproduction, an ancestor only passes half of his or her genes on to the next generation. The percentage of genes inherited from the MRCA becomes smaller and smaller at every successive generation, as genes inherited from contemporaries of MRCA are interchanged via sexual reproduction.[5]

Since the human genome consists of roughly 232 base pairs, the genetic contribution of a single ancestor through a single line may be flushed out of the descendants' genome completely after 32 generations, or roughly 1,000 years."

If you want the statistical basis

http://www.stat.yale.edu/~jtc5/papers/Ancestors.pdf

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 06:54PM

Thank you for this.

The analysis has of course been in common use for a long time now and should not need recapitulation. But there is value in slapping down nonsense when it arises on the board.

A few notes on your sources.

1) The conclusions are even stronger for England than what is presented in your first post. The scientists tested to see what degree of relation characterized people in Europe located within 2,000 km of each other, which is 1,243 miles. England, however, is considerably smaller than that. It's dimensions in miles are 402 by 302, with the longest possible distance across the country at 840. It follows that the degree of consanguinity in England is much higher than in the larger territories possible in Europe and hence that the relevant genetic isopoint/s much more recent.

2) The study used averages for all people whereas the genetic prevalence of royal and/or upper-class genes would be higher than for commoners since the powerful tend to spread their genes much more widely than, say, some peasant in East Anglia. That is important when considering William the Conqueror or less immediately, Chinggis Khan, both of whom had huge advantages in perpetuating their DNA. Such people must perforce have left a much greater-than-average contribution in the present gene pool.

I suspect that is why my sources were more definite about the genetic ubiquity of political leaders like William, Chinggis Khan, and Charlemagne.

3) The number of base pairs in the human genome is not 232 but rather 2^32.

4) The last substantive paragraph in your second post says that the contribution of a single MRCA can be flushed out by normal genetic processes in about 1,000 years. That's important for two reasons.

First, I wish there were a date on that data because I think it has been superseded by technological advances. Take North Africa for example. It has long been accepted that there was no Neanderthal DNA in Africa, but the application of better statistical tools over the last several years tells us that there is significant N. DNA throughout northern Africa. The genetic contribution did not increase, of course, but the science got better at detecting smaller stretches of DNA. My hunch is that the same thing would happen to the English data if more modern statistical firepower were unleashed on it.

Second, that paragraph says that over 1,000 years the DNA of "a single line" may be "flushed out." It's important to note that that does not invalidate the arguments I presented above for the simple reason that there are dozens if not hundreds of lines emanating from William the Conqueror and the first several generations of his progeny. If Kentish descended from 20 of William's lines, but three of them were subsequently "flushed out," he would still be a descendant many times over.

If any of this seems unreasonable, please let me know.

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 07:19PM

I do not disagree. The number of DNA base pairs is noted as 2^32 in the article, but somehow formatted as 232 on this board - which does have formatting quirks (try posting a table).

As noted, the flushing out of DNA from an ancestor in ~1000 years does not mean that particular person was not an ancestor.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 07:39PM

Thanks.

One of the great things about this board is to get input from clever people.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 01:44PM

I read completely, and considered your last two posts, above, and have the following comments: This is all well and good, but once again, none of this seems to address the question that is before us in this thread. Let me restate that question to regain our focus:

The question is: ‘How is it possible that all (or essentially all) of persons living today with *any* English ancestry are the direct descendants of William the Conqueror (WC) (1028-1087) who lived in 11th Century England within an existing population of 1.3 million?’

This is what needs to be explained. It contrasts with the possible intuition some might have that some—if not the majority—of such current English persons would be direct descendants, not of WC, but of one of the other 1.3 million English persons living at the time of WC.

I will attempt to answer this question below, but first let me briefly comment on your two recent posts:

Now, with that question explicitly stated, and without getting into the details, your two most recent posts seem to center around the concepts of the (1) “identical ancestor’s point,” (IAP) and (2) the “the most recent common ancestor.” (MRCA) How do these concepts directly relate to our question?

The IAP is defined as “the most recent point in a given population’s past such that each individual alive at this point either has no living descendants or is the ancestor of every individual alive in the present.” In order to establish the relevancy of this concept to the present question, we need to ask the following questions: (1) What is the “given population” of the IAP definition that is relevant to our question; (2) Where is the IAP point in this population, and how is it determined; and, most importantly, (3) How does this IAP point relate to WC, or to the original population of 1.3 million existing in WC’s lifetime. Now, I am not saying that there are no relationships here that might be pursued and be helpful, but if so, such relationship is left unstated, and is not otherwise obvious.

The MRCA is defined as “the most recent [unique] individual from which all the organisms of the set are descended.” Intuitively, this seems more helpful. The “set” we are presumably interested in is the set of currently existing persons having English ancestry. But clearly, WC has not been shown to be the MRCA of our identified set, and he most certainly is not that person. The MRCA must extend well beyond our original population. So, this too appears to be unhelpful for our purposes; and least not directly.

What is obvious—without theoretical difficulty—is that the ancestry, taken together, of each member of our set of current English persons represents a complex genealogical network of overlapping relationships. Yet, here again, that observation alone does not address the question we have posed, as stated above. The answer is, however, rather simple, perhaps so simple as to be either overlooked, or largely left unstated. Here it is one attempt at an answer—in lay terms—appropriate for the Board:
____________________________________________

First, we know (or are assuming) that WC was only one of approximately 1.3 million English people existing during his lifetime. It is way too complex and cumbersome to consider how the actual genealogical network of English people descended from this group. But to gain an intuitive grasp of what is going on, we can consider the following highly simplified model:

Suppose an original, isolated, population of only 10 people, five male and five female, such that one of the 10 was named “William.”

So, in this first generation, William represented 1 of the 10, or 10 percent of the population. Now suppose that the males and females hooked up creating 5 couples, and each couple produced two offspring, one male and one female. So now we have 10 members of the second generation. But notice that now two of the ten are direct descendants of William, representing 20 percent of the population of the second generation. Now, suppose once again that these second generation members (10) hooked up male and female creating five couples (without incest), and again each had two offspring, so that we now have a third generation of 10. But notice we now have 4 of the ten that are direct descendants of William, representing 40 percent of the third generation. And if we do this again, we have a fourth generation of 10, but now 80 percent of the population are direct descendants of William. If we now allow incest in our model, all members of the fifth generation will be direct descendants of William. Of course, the same simplistic genealogical model could be stated with any one of the original ten of generation one, so that in our model, by generation 5, the lines of descent are completely intertwined.

Of course, the above model is way too simplistic, and far removed from the dynamics of our question's actual original population of 1.3 million. Nonetheless, the point should be well taken. With a computer and more sophisticated, ‘appropriately defined,’ model, a more realistic conclusion could be drawn as to when William’s line (and those of the other original 1.3 million people in the model) would saturate the population, establishing various genealogical lines traceable back to William. Yet with any model, how accurate it reflects reality is always questionable. In this case, no proposed model will mirror the actual genealogical facts associated with the complex population network involved. That is why our question is ultimately contingent and empirical, rather than strictly mathematical, as is any model.

Thus, it should be clear that a single individual such as WC, existing within a first-generation population—even one of 1.3 million—would eventually (after 40 generations?) produce direct descendants of WC throughout the population. As such, we could reasonably conclude that virtually every person in the 40th generation (?) of persons having English ancestry, would have some direct line of ascent that eventually connected with WC.

To be candid, the above line of reasoning was adapted from an “expert” source that I unfortunately could not recall or find in my database. Nonetheless, the logic is entirely elementary, such that it should be either intuitively clear, or otherwise easy to refute.

Lastly, I am not a geneticist or a theoretical genealogist, so I am open to correction if my error can be clearly shown. But not by reciting elementary evolutionary theory, or highly technical peripheral matters, that appear to have little, or only tangential application to our question.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 03:16PM

Look, either acknowledge your error as a strong person would do or skulk away. But don't try to present our arguments as your own and claim the high ground.


-----------------
1) Your conclusion in the last paragraphs of this post is a recitation of the logic I presented in my first post or two based on seven or eight scientific sources and subsequently demonstrated more than once by [|]. You spent an entire thread saying the argument is incorrect and yet here you dress it up and present it as your own.

Do you think that deceives anyone?


-------------------
2) Then you add, "the above line of reasoning was adapted from an “expert” source that I unfortunately could not recall or find in my database."

You couldn't recall the "expert source" in your super-secret "database" on genetic anthropology? Not to worry. You can just accept the sources we presented.


--------------------
3) As for my argument--repackaged as yours--being "entirely elementary, such that it should be either intuitively clear," a resounding "yes!"

That's why you should be embarrassed at having denied it for so very long.


----------------------
4) Then you write: "The answer is, however, rather simple, perhaps so simple as to be either overlooked, or largely left unstated. Here it is one attempt at an answer—in lay terms—appropriate for the Board. . ."

One can't produce better evidence of your ineluctable condescension than that. After having asked for expert sources, you now pretend they are "inappropriately" difficult for the board readership to grasp. Thus your "layman's" explanation with "simple" sentences is an act of generosity from a superior intellect to all the rubes on RfM.

That's rather rude, isn't it? And self-serving?

Walter?



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 05/01/2023 10:34PM by Lot's Wife.

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Posted by: [|] ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 03:56PM

>But not by reciting elementary evolutionary theory

That was simply an answer to your question about how a trait became ubiquitous in a population. It does not have anything to with the underlying question here, but it didn't when you brought it up earlier either.

>So, in this first generation, William represented 1 of the 10, or 10 percent of the population. Now suppose that the males and females hooked up creating 5 couples, and each couple produced two offspring, one male and one female. So now we have 10 members of the second generation. But notice that now two of the ten are direct descendants of William, representing 20 percent of the population of the second generation. Now, suppose once again that these second generation members (10) hooked up male and female creating five couples (without incest), and again each had two offspring, so that we now have a third generation of 10. But notice we now have 4 of the ten that are direct descendants of William, representing 40 percent of the third generation. And if we do this again, we have a fourth generation of 10, but now 80 percent of the population are direct descendants of William. If we now allow incest in our model, all members of the fifth generation will be direct descendants of William. Of course, the same simplistic genealogical model could be stated with any one of the original ten of generation one, so that in our model, by generation 5, the lines of descent are completely intertwined.

Now you are starting to get it. Consider how much the lines of descent get intertwined in 30 or 40 generations.

>Thus, it should be clear that a single individual such as WC, existing within a first-generation population—even one of 1.3 million—would eventually (after 40 generations?) produce direct descendants of WC throughout the population. As such, we could reasonably conclude that virtually every person in the 40th generation (?) of persons having English ancestry, would have some direct line of ascent that eventually connected with WC.

And now you are endorsing the idea that you have been arguing against for the past two days.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 04:02PM

> And now you are endorsing the idea that you have
> been arguing against for the past two days.

Exactly.

And he thinks no one will notice.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 09:16PM

"And now you are endorsing the idea that you have been arguing against for the past two days."

COMMENT: That's ridiculous. From the beginning I told LW to "fix her argument," and expressly have said that her conclusion was correct. And now, I finally provide the explanation that neither you or she could provide. And you want to claim that it is I have finally become educated?

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 09:21PM

Yawn.

Don't worry, none of us think you have "been educated." When ego gets in the way, not even your enormous "database" (presumably housed in the 17 Cray Supercomputers in your basement) can yield a straight answer.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 05/01/2023 09:34PM by Lot's Wife.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: May 02, 2023 08:19AM

I said the following early in this discussion:

"First, I did not disagree with your conclusion. I merely pointed out that YOUR analysis was obviously faulty and nonsensical, for reasons clearly stated. (e.g. there is obviously not "1.1 trillion potential ancestors (of William) alive in his day."

"I repeat, try again. If you have to use informal, Googled authority, fine. Just provide a coherent, logical, explanation for your conclusion. If it is right--or even minimally logically coherent -- I will say so. But so far, all we have is obvious nonsense!"

"Good luck! If you can't do it, fine. Just admit that and ask me kindly and I will provide it for you! (And, I don't need Google!)"
___________________________________

Now I have generously given you the answer. Try not to repeatedly confuse your own ignorance and blatant dishonesty with my arrogance.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: May 02, 2023 09:11AM

> Now I have generously given you the answer. Try
> not to repeatedly confuse your own ignorance and
> blatant dishonesty with my arrogance.

That's right, Henry. Thank you for pointing out my "ignorance and blatant dishonesty."

And good luck trying to find your database.

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Posted by: desertwoman ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 08:57PM

Henry Bemis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
>
> "So, you have to start with William
> (or some other historical figure), not with any of
> his currently existing ancestors.

Henry, you have me completely confused. William has no Currently Existing Ancestors, i.e., the people he was descended from. But, he may have many, many Currently Existing Descendants. There is a difference.

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Posted by: Henry Bemis ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 01:46PM

Exactly, my error, it should read, "currently existing descendants."

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: May 25, 2023 04:06AM

Just adding a new datum for those who care about such things.

It turns out that 16% of today's humans are direct descendants of Chinggis Khan. He personally never got further from Mongolia than northern China and Afghanistan--let alone Europe, Russia, Iran, India, the population centers of China, Africa, the Americas, or Australia. Yet the odds of a European bearing his genes is well north of 50% because his sons and their families traveled and ruled widely.

That underscores the logic behind the ubiquity of William the Conqueror's genetic legacy in the UK.

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Posted by: Done & Done ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 10:00AM

A small collection of Mormon Geneologist favorite jokes:

“My ancestors are so hard to find, they must have been in a witness protection program!”

“My husband calls cemeteries ancestor farms.”

Wife to husband: “Never mind the children, do you know where your second great-grandparents are tonight?”

Only a genealogist views a step backwards as progress.

“I want to find ALL of them! So far I only have a few thousand.”

And finally this one dedicated to EOD:
“I think my ancestors a “bad heir” day.”

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 12:14PM

"Witness Protection Program," "bad heir day. . ."

Excellent.

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Posted by: elderolddog ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 12:24PM

Hey, D (We're on a first-initial basis, I call him "D", and he calls me "E" or sometimes "Y!?"), I think mormons only take note of an heir message when it suits their needs.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 12:31PM

So when you two go to your favorite food court to share a dirty soda, do they call out "order for DED" or "order for EDD?"

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Posted by: Done & Done ( )
Date: April 27, 2023 01:12PM

Sick! hahahahah ha.

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Posted by: Nightingale ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 02:33PM

EOD: Your stuff is fun to read. If I ever throw a party I'd like you on the guest list.

Don't worry though. You're safe. I never have parties. I'm more the one over in the corner wondering how soon I can go home without offending the host.

I'm better one on one. Too serious, I guess, to just relax and enjoy myself on a more superficial level. Trivia - I don't know any trivia to make myself an interesting yakker with strangers.

I'm surprised you didn't mention another name Will was called: William the Bastard (because he was "illegitimate"). Still, he ended up acceding to the throne.

Encyclopedia Britannica states that he was "moral and pious by the standards of the time". (Likely not a high bar to jump). It also says he was uneducated yet intelligent. Interesting.

As all my relatives that I'm aware of are from England, Scotland and Ireland, I must be in the William camp myself. Too bad I'm not in line for a share of the Crown jewels. Or a nice bit of land on the Isle of Skye.

I'm terribly interested in doing my genealogy. The Mormons put me off it for a good long while. I'd love to get a pro to trace my line so I could be somewhat more confident I was getting correct information. It's easy to head off down rabbit holes. Even though our family name is rare (err, non-existent) in Canada, I found it in abundance over there, to my surprise. My sister said that makes it harder to ensure you're on the right track with getting accurate results in your search. I've been too lazy so far to make a serious attempt but wouldn't it be fun if I could trace myself back to the very earliest years (I won't hold my breath that it's possible). Too, there's always the chance you'll find out something you wouldn't want to know. I can't imagine what that could be in my very ordinary-seeming family but what if I found out that a tyrant's blood is coursing through my veins, although what can you do about it. It is what it is, as my brother often says, which is as profound as many other philosophies I hear.

It would be interesting to hear how your brush with Mormonism came about, EOD. Maybe you've outlined it before but I either missed it or have forgotten. Sorry if so!

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Posted by: elderolddog ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 02:59PM

I have a posted email address, you know!

I'm pretty sure that you wouldn't abuse it and that I'd never have to block you like I have Gladys, and occasionally D&D.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 05:18PM

EOD is well worth knowing, Nightingale. He's like the short kid in the class who makes everybody else feel tall.

When you email him, just say you're a descendant of William the Conqueror, as you almost certainly are, and he'll be right over to help with the dishes!

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Posted by: Nightingale ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:19PM

Lot's Wife Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> just say you're a descendant
> of William the Conqueror, as you almost certainly
> are

Yeah, well, where's my Coronation invite, eh?

Passed over. Again.


NB: Edited huh to eh to add in some Canadian flavour.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/2023 07:33PM by Nightingale.

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Posted by: Lot's Wife ( )
Date: April 29, 2023 06:46PM

Well, you have EOD's personal invitation--and I sometimes think he's been in business a lot longer than the upstart Windsors.

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Posted by: Susan I/S ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 12:04AM

My invite came but I declined. I just don't want to jump over the pond right now. You didn't get one because you don't have a tiara :P You can come over and watch with me. You can borrow my pearl tiara since you don't like diamonds. We can ether have Coronation Blend that was made for the anniversary of Queen Elizabeth or one of the Buckingham Palace teas. Longest Reigning Monarch Double Chocolate Biscuits. And of course, jam penny sandwiches :)

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Posted by: Nightingale ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 05:05PM

Susan I/S Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My invite came but I declined. I just don't want
> to jump over the pond right now. You didn't get
> one because you don't have a tiara :P You can
> come over and watch with me. You can borrow my
> pearl tiara since you don't like diamonds. We can
> ether have Coronation Blend that was made for the
> anniversary of Queen Elizabeth or one of the
> Buckingham Palace teas. Longest Reigning Monarch
> Double Chocolate Biscuits. And of course, jam
> penny sandwiches :)

It's OK to decline if you're American but a British subject (like myself, being Canadian) may wish to accept, with honour, because of not wishing to snub the King.

I understand though - it's quite the big pond to jump over. :P

I don't really wear jewels - some weird aversion to excess, etc, or something. So no tiara for me!

Too, I'm pretty wedded to my Yorkshire blend - I would have to bring my own teabags but I'm all in for the biscuits and sarnies. Definitely.

I was amused this morning to see a comment by a US star who is participating in the Coronation. She said something like she is going to see Charles become King. However, this is the coronation ceremony (formal investiture) but he is already the monarch. That's why he's called King Charles and it's not even Saturday yet. :)

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Posted by: Dave the Atheist ( )
Date: April 30, 2023 09:25PM

Whenever I need to figure myself out I go to a professional geologist. Rocks don't lie !

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Posted by: TX Rancher ( )
Date: May 01, 2023 04:37PM

"William the Conqueror"...it's funny for couple reasons, because my mother's genealogy goes back to him, too. First, probably 150 million others' histories go back somehow.

Second, I've done some looking at histories on my Mexican side and you rely on a lot of work that others have done--and multiple times found where five different contributors have five different fathers associated with an single ancestor. Only takes one to say a line goes back to William the Conqueror and "Boom!" I'm a descendant.

Mom's genealogy also says I'm related to a famous person (Anne Hutchinson, and even her daughter Susannah who was held by Native Americans for six years!) Yeah, so are millions of others, including Chevy Chase and Mitt Romney. Not that special if true.

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