I found this on a website somewhere...

According to an insider at the COB here is the resignation request growth since 1995:


1995:...........35,420
1996:...........50,177
1997:...........55,200
1998:...........78,750
1999:...........81,200
2000:...........87,500
2001:..........101,454
2002:..........105,763

I plotted this out in excel and it predicted that according to this trend there will be 186,779 people resign in 2010.

2010-> 186,779

...the loss approaches a stagnation rate, which hopefully will only get worse as the internet continues to nip at the heels of this god forsaken cult. To bad we'll never know the actual rate, but it sounds questionable in that most people don't resign, but simply leave. The actual figure for those actually leaving is probably much higher.

If all trends stay the same (net growth) and resignation.. it looks like in 2023 the church may start net loosing members. All things constant, I ran the numbers out further and the church would have 0 people in it in 2077. Of course there are many other variables not factored in for sure. I wonder if any exmo math geeks have modeled out the more realistic picture??????

Honestly, I think the only chance they have to stay a float would be to denounce the BOM and the history and convert over to being a normal Christian Church. Similar to what the world wide church of God cult did.. They would likely loose half their members, but it would sustain the religion in the future. If they were a normal Christian church, they might gain some members back too(like possibly me).

Do away with the WOW, temple, wierdness etc.., and be more accepting of others like Jesus was. Otherwise I think with the internet and lack of missionary effort the church will stagnate in the 13 to 14 million range (2 to 3 million active) for many, many years and then possibly die out.

I think it will be more like technology adoption rates. There will be a point of critical mass where the church will not be able to sustain itself and will start imploding. I think we will see strong generational shifts. Think of all the nom who only stay becausr they dont want to hurt their mommy's feelings. Once their parents are gone, what reason will there be to keep living the lie?

Well, they better start having more kids then to make up for the all the people who are leaving!!!!

"Spread your legs honey, the prophet commanded us to multiply!!"

It wouldn't surprise me, if the church did lose a ton of tithe paying folks due to "enlightenment" and then having the audacity to command the remainder to hump like a bunch of bunnies on a lettuce high. (In their garments of course.)

Each day, they lose somebody, and that's the good news.

ST

stationarytraveler Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> "Spread your legs honey, the prophet commanded us
> to multiply!!"
...
> and then having the audacity to command the
> remainder to hump like a bunch of bunnies on a
> lettuce high. (In their garments of course.)

i MIGHT consider going back to church again if that ever happened =)

I'll do a nice analysis for you. :)

I was running with the data provided in the post for resignations, coupled with the LDS stats out on ;

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints_membership_history

A better analysis would definitely be interesting..

First, while it would be nice if these numbers actually came from an insider, how do you know that they do? FWIW, the numbers have been posted here numerous times, but evidence that they actually came from someone on the inside has never been more than scant at best.

Second, why assume that this extrapolation is the right one? Why not a logarithmic fit? The R^2 value is nice for a linear fit, but there are any number of other possible fits.

Tyson

I agree with Helamon here. The software model fits best.

The demographic bulge that was mentioned is going to have a huge impact. When my generation, the Baby Boomers, dies off, there will be a huge collective gasp of relief from our children and a mass exodus. Which will not be represented by resignation statistics at all because my children, GenX, fail to marry/dot the i's/cross the t's/always use birth control, vote, etc.

Palmer's revelation is in episode no. 4 at http://mormonstories.org/?p=92

Hmm,
My gut feeling is that the church leaders aren't that concerned about 100k people resigning.

Their many worry is that lack of retention amongst new converts, and the number of church members who just become inactive.

I guess that most of these 100k aren't active tithe-payers at the time of resignation anyway?

In some ways, resignation is similar to removing dead wood anyway. I remember a few years back, our ward got the PH to go and visit everyone on the ward list to see how interested they were. If they had no interest, the PH were to suggest they might want to resign...

Resignations are rising, but so is claimed membership.

However, I don't think it's the NUMBER of resignations that might trouble the brethren, it's the type of people who are resigning. Sure, new converts and "not very good" members quietly slip away every day, leaving the church with about 75% inactivity. But most of the folks who take the trouble to formally quit the church had been good, solid members.

The church is supported by a small core of faithful, maybe as small as 10% of adults (minors don't count). When "apostasy" hits in that small core, it's a big deal.

This is only anecdotal, of course, but most of the people in my social circle that have left the church are, like me, the formerly TBM, BIC, BYU, mission, temple married, highly educated sort that rose fairly quickly in the leadership ranks. I think the attributes that the Morg finds attractive in potential leadership candidates are the very same attributes that eventually can lead to *GASP* free and critical thinking and, eventually, utter non-belief.

leave the church it is a big deal.

These are the members who are supposed to be the backbone of the church.

Their loss is noticed and casts a long shadow over those who remain.

but haven't been active, paid tithing, or had a calling in 5 years. There are many that are not resigned, but still on the records.

That is what I see. People who were active and then suddenly quit going and don't want to talk about it. They don't resign for family reasons or don't want to rock the boat. But for all intents and purposes they don't consider themselves as Mormon anymore. They are not resigned but still on the records.

Active TBM, temple married, RM, BYU grad, tithe payer one day and then notably unenthusiastic for about 9 months and then suddenly, gone. I don't talk about it because DH still is LDS and because no one wants to hear it. I don't consider myself Mormon any more and will tell people I'm not. But I don't resign because DH would be upset. If we ever broke up the first thing I'd do is resign. The second thing would be to get a small ankle tattoo but that is a subject for another post.

There are a lot of people like me. I can think of several in my ward who stopped church suddenly or go sporadically but don't really think of themselves as LDS and would leave in a heartbeat if something big came out against the church that made them feel like their family would understand if they came clean.

I'm in the exact same boat. I want to resign, but DW doesn't want me to. However, we will not be baptising our children. They can make their own decisions at 18, but no one gets ours.

Out of all of my really good friends, most of them are not active at all. And resignation isn't important to them. But they are not participating, and do not consider themselves Mormon, even though the church does.

That's me. Even if I am dead, I will rejoice if my kids and their kids find their way out of this cult. Right now, they are all very entrenched. I believe part of it is because of their gay father and their mother who is living in sin with her fiance. They are shell shocked by the family dynamic that has changed drastically in the last several years. They think they have to be an example, doncha know... I know both my ex husband and I are the topic of conversation whenever they are together.

I believe that the church is going to go through a reformation period during which the leaders will cull the wheat from the chaff. This will leave a smaller more fanatical church. Either you are 100% or they will want you out. Essentially it will be decided that complete control over a small number is better then no control over a larger number.

I think many home teaching, quorum presidency, and bishopric veterans here have actually seen ENCOURAGEMENT of name-removal/resignation among inactives. I've heard of several purges in which inactives were actually invited to resign.

The church is a corporation and a cult, a self-conserving entity, not a church concerned with "the one" as claimed, and thus it does some counterintuitive things to protect the trunk at the expense of the limbs.
If it were a true church, there would be no need to "steady the ark" by using PR, censorship, intimidation, purging, propaganda, correlation, or any other form of manipulation to "strengthen the members". If it were true, the gospel ALONE would be sufficient without man-made devices to prop it up.
But as it is, a myth, it requires propping up.
As a necessity, the church purges dissidents to the degree they're a threat to the illusion. There comes a point when an inactive/apostate is a greater threat to the "strength of the members" than it's worth to keep them around, so the church lets them go, by the thousands. It's NOT the apostates the church cares about, it's the illusioned members it cares about.
Since it's not a true church and they don't REALLY care about the salvation of all men, it's more of a panning for gold prospect. They only need a few flakes for it to pay off.
Retention is MORE abut the illusion for the sake of the illusioned than anything. The church can tolerate flat growth and even some atrophy, it's just pruning the tree. Other religions have tolerated shrinkage for decades.

whats your source?

I wonder how many people just leave quietly.