OK you stats geeks, what think ye?

"The most concerning statistic reported for 2011 was the number of congregations; a mere 124 more than 2010. Few new congregations organized during 2011 suggests ongoing convert retention problems. Commensurate congregational and membership growth rates suggests high convert retention whereas in 2011, the percentage growth in membership was five times greater than that for wards and branches. One cause for significantly reduced number of new congregations organized in 2011 was the consolidation of scores of YSA wards and branches in Utah and Idaho in preparation to create YSA stakes. However, even if these consolidations had not occurred, the increase in units would still have been lower than any year since the early 2000s."

See all the gory details here:
http://ldschurchgrowth.blogspot.com/

The Jehovah's Witnesses only count as members those who are involved going door-to-door. If you don't pound the pavement, you're not counted as a member. For 2011, they show 7,659,019 _active_ members. That's a 2.4% increase over the 2010.

And perhaps we can get our in-house statisticians to examine the Mormon numbers. Two of the numbers seem very problematic:

Membership: 14,441,346 (increase of 309,879 from 2010; a 2.19% annual increase)
Convert Baptisms: 281,312 (increase of 8,498 from 2010; a 3.11% annual increase)

So overall membership increased 309,879, but 281,312 of these were convert baptisms. This seems to say that the net increase among non-converts is 28,567. Does that mean there were fewer than 30,000 new births into the church from the 14 million members? Does that strike anyone else as extremely low? It may be more evidence of growing inactivity. New births can be counted as new members only when the church can document them.

You are right...there is some funny math going on here. The mormon numbers are fishy.

PYM+CB+CR-L=CYM
where PYM = prior year membership
CB = convert baptisms
CR = increase in children of record
L = losses (deaths, resignations, excommunications)
CYM = current year membership

Using the numbers from the link, CB+CR= 401,229

CYM-PYM= 309,879

Therefore, the number of members lost = 91,350

This seems a little fishy. The mortality rate in the US in 2009 (last year for which I can find complete data was 7.41/1000). Assuming an average church membership of 14, 250,000 for the year, there would be expected to be 105,593 deaths for the year applying US mortality rates. About half the membership lives outside the US -some in countries with lower mortality rates, but some in countries with higher mortality rates. Since I am not going to take the time to calculate the expected number of deaths from each country and add them up, let's just assume that the average death rate for Mormons worldwide is the same as for the US. There is evidence that the population of Utah is younger than the US average, so extrapolating (perhaps incorrectly) that Mormons in general have a younger than average population, thier death rate could be lower, so that the figure of 91,350 could be a plausible estimate for total Mormon deaths - with favorable assumptions. That number, however, has to include resignations and excommunications as well, so it appears that the total membership losses are unrealistically low.

You also have to take into account that some people die and leave the church.

This would be the total formula for the change in membership:
+ Covert baptisms
+ 8 year old baptisms
- excommunications
- resignations
- reported deaths
- people who have reached 110

So the USA has a low birth rate of 13.5 births per 1000 people. If you do the numbers based on the "14 million" members... that would give you close to 200,000 new births for that many members.

And lets face it, mormons have more kids than the general population so it would likely be much higher than that. I smell a fish.

Seems I read something about Muslim families having the most kids in the US, surpassing Mos and Catholics but I have no proof of this.

...about ten years ago, Mormons families averaged only one child more than the national average.

When the national average is less than 2, that extra 1 is still a big deal, by a factor of at least 50%

Take into account the death rate, and use figures from 2003. You'll need to weight all rates according to membership stats around the world, use continents as a proxy. Uprate them to allow for higher birth rates amongst Mormons compared to the general population.

281,312 new converts divided by the total (claimed) membership of
14,441,346 = 1.94% growth by conversions. I believe the church was once close to 5% (perhaps someone can check that).

In any case, compared to natural population growth, I believe this figure is close to stagnation. Also, I doubt that they are subtracting a considerable number of resignations.

Anyone have better figures to work from?

See the following:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Church_of_Jesus_Christ_of_Latter-day_Saints_membership_history

2.19% is the lowest growth rate since 1947. When I was a Mormon missionary (~1980), I recall the number of missionaries was 30,000. Now with 55,000 missionaries it appears the missionary effeciency has decreased.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2012 11:38AM by scotto.

It may be that missionaries are less effective in the face of more information available to their would be victims.

They may be nearing saturation on the 3rd world country market.

Most of the recent growth in the church has been Brazil & the Philippines. I'd imagine it's been in decline in the US for a while now.

I found this chart of missionary efficiency:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Missionary_%28LDS_Church%29#Number_of_missionaries_and_number_of_converts

The new number for 2011 would be 5.08 converts per missionary per year, down from 5.22 in 2010 and a peak of 8.03 in 1989.

What I want to know is how many of those are kids over the age of nine whose parent(s) are already members. When I was doing this gig many years ago in Idaho the MP made a huge push to chase those numbers.

I once tried to estimate the total active members based on the activity rates of the different countries.

This was a few years back, but the overall activity rate seemed to be approximately 1/3.

If this rate has held, then active members are in the 4 million to 5 million range.



Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/01/2012 12:34PM by archytas.

How long before they stop giving those stats in conference? Or do they think that no one will do the math?

gemini Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> How long before they stop giving those stats in
> conference? Or do they think that no one will do
> the math?

I won't be surprised if they stop this practice and declare actual membership numbers are just too sacred to share any longer. Or they'll start cooking the books. Or perhaps they are already cooking the books, and the church is in free fall?

As Stephen Colbert would say, "They have a feeling of truthiness, so I believe them."

I had a look at the last 5 years of LDSIncUK accounts (they have to publish them here to retain their "charitable" status). For the first 4 of these they also published the current UK membership statistics and how many convert baptisms they had. In one year in particular, the total membership was actually significantly less than the previous year, despite the supposed addition of 2000 new converts!

In the last year they have ceased to publish the membership details.

If they can no longer fake the numbers enough to make the official report look good then things must be dire indeed.

I also doubt the missionary numbers.

I don't believe there are 55,000 young people proselyting. I would not be surprised at all to find that the term "full-time missionary" technically includes the full time retirees that are providing public relations, real estate, and governmental relations work as well as the retirees working as ushers at the Mormon Mall of America.

I would bet the missionary numbers include senior couples.

The change in the number of congregations (bums on seats) is the most important stat of them all. And it looks very bad for the church

2004......433
2005......417
2006......388
2007......352
2008......282
2009......315
2010......236

2011......146

It represents a growth rate of 0.5% in the number of church units. That is slower than the growth in the global population and the US growth rate.

Year...Members......Units....Average
1999...10,752,986...25,793...416.9
2000...11,068,861...25,915...427.1
2001...11,394,522...26,084...436.8
2002...11,721,548...26,143...448.4
2003...11,985,254...26,237...456.8
2004...12,275,822...26,670...460.3
2005...12,560,869...27,087...463.7
2006...12,868,606...27,475...468.4
2007...13,193,999...27,827...474.1
2008...13,508,509...28,109...480.6
2009...13,824,854...28,424...486.4
2010...14,131,467...28,660...493.1
2011...14,441,346...28,784...501.7

The size of the wards is increasing because people aren't coming. If all those people were coming, more than 124 units would have been added. Each of the 124 units added average 2499 members. Numbers don't lie.



Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/02/2012 01:32AM by Leaving.

Wait a minute - I have always understood that the COB does not process death certificates. A person has to age off the list at age 106. My son who died at 29 is still listed as a member until he is dropped at when he would have been 106.

Is this NOT true?

Anagrammy

PS. Another question--when I resigned, I assumed my children were removed with me. Is that true or not?

So my friend who died of cancer at 26 would still be listed as a member until 106? Or my friend who died of a stroke last year at 56? Because that would wreck havoc with their true membership numbers.

I thought they only kept those members whose whereabouts are unknown on the rolls until they were 110. But if someone died an active or less active but known member, they'd remove their name. On the other hand, if you resign, they just mark your file as "resigned" but your information still belongs to them and they still count you in their membership numbers.

If the church knows that a member dies then they will process that information. For the millions of members who they've lost track of and will never know what has become of them they will keep them on the rolls until their 106th birthday.

At least that's how I understand it works.

Even for the active members it could be difficult to get the records updated to record when someone died. Several times we'd have it denied because the proper supporting documentation of a death certificate or obit weren't submitted. It was easier to just keep the person on the Ward or branch list.

http://tech.lds.org/wiki/Non-ordinance_events#Deaths

http://www.abc4.com/content/news/top_stories/story/Number-of-faithful-Mormons-rapidly-declining/rvih3gOKxEm5om9IYJYnRA.cspx

Also, the linked Reuters report: "Special Report: Mormonism besieged by the modern age" (ref. http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/31/us-mormonchurch-idUSTRE80T1CM20120131 ). The first part of the report says:

A religious studies class late last year at Utah State University in Logan, Utah, was unusual for two reasons. The small group of students, faculty and faithful there to hear Mormon Elder Marlin Jensen were openly troubled about the future of their church, asking hard questions. And Jensen was uncharacteristically frank in acknowledging their concerns.

Did the leaders of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints know that members are "leaving in droves?" a woman asked.

"We are aware," said Jensen, according to a tape recording of his unscripted remarks. "And I'm speaking of the 15 men that are above me in the hierarchy of the church. They really do know and they really care," he said.

"My own daughter," he then added, "has come to me and said, 'Dad, why didn't you ever tell me that Joseph Smith was a polygamist?'" For the younger generation, Jensen acknowledged, "Everything's out there for them to consume if they want to Google it." The manuals used to teach the young church doctrine, meanwhile, are "severely outdated."

These are tumultuous times for the faith founded by Joseph Smith in 1830, and the rumbling began even before church member Mitt Romney's presidential bid put the Latter-Day Saints in the spotlight.

Jensen, the church's official historian, would not provide any figures on the rate of defections, but he told Reuters that attrition has accelerated in the last five or 10 years, reflecting greater secularization of society.

The blog has this to say:

"The most concerning statistic reported for 2011 was the number of congregations; a mere 124 more than 2010. Few new congregations organized during 2011 suggests ongoing convert retention problems. Commensurate congregational and membership growth rates suggests high convert retention whereas in 2011, the percentage growth in membership was five times greater than that for wards and branches. "

But it only considers congregations (wards & branches). The increase in stakes (1.73%) and in districts (0.98%) is telling us that the combine increase of divisions is still matched to the increase in membership.

I realize that they would need many congregations to house the members, unless they are letting the size of wards/branches increase, while reducing the number of wards per stake/district (and increasing the number of stakes/districts).

That seems to be what they're doing, and they might be reducing the number of buildings built by forcing each to house more people per meeting/congregation.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/02/2012 09:46AM by Jesus Smith.

I doubt theres enough active members to fill buildings any other way.

I think what may also happen is that if they dissolve two wards and consolidate them into one, this counts as a "new unit." Thus 124 new congregations could actually represent shrinkage, and they would not tell you that.

Moreover, a "congregation" can be a mere "group," which is a small congregation of 5 - 10 members meeting in someone's home.

Agree---while there are published stats on new stakes created and old stakes dissolved, there is no similar resource for wards---and movement in ward numbers would presage any change in stake numbers.