[Edit to change data to exact values from census rather than rounded values, which did change some results, and corrected error in Sask. data]
Here is some real, third-party data on LDS membership numbers. These are from the 2001 and 2011 Canadian Cenuses. Canada is of particular interest, because it has the second largest multi-generational BIC Mormon population in the world, thanks to the polygamists who migrated to Cardston, Alberta in 1887. This gives us a chance to see what effect Bob McCue in Calgary and Tal Bachman in BC, among others fighting the good fight in Canada, may have had on their respective communities.
BTW, cumorah dot com reports membership (LDS Inc numbers) in Canada as 172,000, and their own estimate of active members is 69,000. Those sound about right, compared to the Canadian Census figures. However, the computed LDS growth rate is 1.78% per year. That, you will see, is so bogus as to be comical.
This data is a comparison of the concentration of LDS members in the western and large provinces if Canada, and major cities in Canada, and in Alberta, which is the mothership for Canadian Mormonism, 2001 versus 2011.
Final figures first. Here's the percentage amount the concentration of Mormons increased or decreased. There were decreases EVERYWHERE except for Saskatchewan and Manitoba, which between them had only about 5,000 Mormons. Those two provinces increased by 310 members total.
Nota Bene: "Percent change in LDS concentration" is not the same thing as "drop in LDS numbers". In most regions (but not all), the raw numbers of Mormons went up, but the overall population went up even more, resulting in a net decrease in the percentage of the population that is Mormon. That is really the number you need to look at to see whether they are growing or not. So, here it is.
Note, all percentages below are for a TEN year period, NOT a ONE year period.
Region, 2001-2011 Percent change in LDS concentration
British Columbia, -18.9%
Calgary, AB, -21.8%
Lethbridge, AB, -8.2%
Edmonton, AB, -8.1%
Vancouver, BC, -15.3%
Montréal, PQ, -9.0%
Toronto, ON, -19.3%
2011 National Household Survey Data tables, Immigration and Ethnocultural Diversity, item 7 (religion), catalogue number 99-010-X2011032http://www12.statcan.gc.ca/english/census01/products/standard/themes/index-eng.cfm
topic 20, Religions in Canada, table 2, Religion and Immigrant Status
Alberta data may be skewed some by the fact that there has been a fairly large population increase there over the last decade because of the energy boom, which exaggerates how much Mormonism is shrinking.
OTOH, in Lethbridge, the raw percentage of Mormons went up 42%. The overall population went up 55%, so the concentration of Mormons in Lethbridge went down. However, In Calgary, it looks like the overall population went up 27%, and the number of self-reported Mormons in Calgary actually went down slightly. The 10 year percentage change in the concentration of Mormons in Calgary dropped very sharply.
British Columbia had a large drop in LDS population, both in raw numbers, and a very large percentage drop in their concentration in the overall population. This too was no doubt affected by the Alberta energy boom. Some transplanted Albertans moved back from BC to AB when the job market got hot. That likely accounts for the big LDS growth spurt in Lethbridge.
However, there was no similar spike in the LDS population in Calgary or Edmonton. Clearly, some of the returning Mormons from BC had to have moved to those two cities as well, so the shrinkage of the Mormon population in Calgary and Edmonton may well be worse than the figures indicate. BC move-ins may have partially masked the dropout rate of local Mormons.
Also, the announced temple in Winnipeg, Manitoba, will only be serving Manitoba members. There are already temples in all the surrounding states and provinces (Twin Cities, MN, Bismarck, ND, Billings, MT and Regina, SK). That means they will have a temple for 1,800 members. That's not even a single decent sized stake.
One warning: the long form for the 2011 Canadian Census was not required to be filled out under penalty of law. There was between a 22 to 27 percent nonresponse rate in the various jurisdictions in my table. This means the data is not as statistically robust as the 2001 data, but that does not necessarily mean that Mormons were undercounted in 2011. In fact, a good case can be made that church leaders, encouraging members to be sure and send in their long form if they got one, may have generated an above average response rate from the Mormon community.
Whatever. For quick and dirty statistical analysis on large populations (major cities and provinces), this data is "close enough for government work", so to speak. The window of uncertainty is a little wider on the 2011 data, but still, there is no doubt that the percentage of Mormons in Canada is going down essentially nationwide.
Here is the raw data from the census data referenced above. The RFM list software removed all the formatting, so it looks awful. If you want a spreadsheet with the data, email me. Click on my username to get my address.
Region, pop 2001, LDS 2001, pop 2011, LDS 2011
Canada, 29,639,035. 101,805. 32,852,320. 105,365.
Quebec, 7,125,580. 4,420. 7,732,520. 4,415.
Ontario, 11,285,545. 20,355. 12,651,790. 20,640.
Manitoba, 1,103,700. 1,700. 1,174,345. 1,845.
Saskatchewan, 963,150. 2,885. 1,008,760. 3,050.
Alberta, 2,941,150. 50,580. 3,567,980. 55,625.
British Columbia, 3,868,875. 17,590. 4,324,455. 15,940.
Calgary, AB, 943,315. 13,070. 1,199,125. 12,990.
Lethbridge, AB, 66,270. 5,680. 102,785. 8,090.
Edmonton, AB, 927,020. 7,890. 1,140,000. 8,920.
Vancouver, BC, 1,967,480. 5,220. 2,280,695. 5,125.
Montréal, PQ, 3,380,645. 2,825. 3,752,475. 2,855.
Toronto, ON, 4,647,960. 5,755. 5,521,235. 5,515.
Here are some derived statistics from the raw data:
Region, raw % lds increase, 2001 LDS concentration in general pop, 2011 LDS concentration in general pop, 2011-2001 change in LDS concentration
Canada, 3.50%, 0.3435%, 0.3207%, -0.0228%
Quebec, -0.11%, 0.0620%, 0.0571%, -0.0049%
Ontario, 1.40%, 0.1804%, 0.1631%, -0.0172%
Manitoba, 8.53%, 0.1540%, 0.1571%, 0.0031%
Saskatchewan, 5.72%, 0.2995%, 0.3024%, 0.0028%
Alberta, 9.97%, 1.7197%, 1.5590%, -0.1607%
British Columbia, -9.38%, 0.4547%, 0.3686%, -0.0861%
Calgary, AB, -0.61%, 1.3855%, 1.0833%, -0.3022%
Lethbridge, AB,42.43%, 8.5710%, 7.8708%, -0.7002%
Edmonton, AB, 13.05%, 0.8511%, 0.7825%, -0.0687%
Vancouver, BC, -1.82%, 0.2653%, 0.2247%, -0.0406%
Montréal, PQ, 1.06%, 0.0836%, 0.0761%, -0.0075%
Toronto, ON, -4.17%, 0.1238%, 0.0999%, -0.0239%
Again, note that all of the changes in LDS concentration in the general population, with the minor exceptions of Saskatchewan and Manitoba, were negative (i.e., they shrank)
Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 06/25/2013 12:50AM by Brother Of Jerry.