Posted by:
Tom Phillips
(
)
Date: July 01, 2013 06:58PM
I didn't see this thread and started my own continuation thread. I would have posted here if I had seen it, therefore I'll copy it below.
A previous thread was closed
http://exmormon.org/phorum/read.php?2,941052,942297#msg-942297Concern was expressed over the church reporting, and boasting of, 14 million + whereas most estimates from board members is 3-5 million. My personal guess was 4 million.
So where are the missing 9 or 10 million? Obviously many have resigned, died while inactive and are alive but inactive.
Here is some food for thought about some 'real' numbers regarding U.K. membership.
In 1987 worldwide membership was 6,394,314 from the Church almanac (Deseret News) and the Church membership in Great Britain numbered 132,810, a figure nearly eight times greater than twenty-five years earlier.[42] Cuthbert, The Second Century, 1:197.
In 2002, membership reached 135,819. (England only?)
In 2011 the U.K. Church membership was "Country information: United Kingdom Published: Monday, Feb. 1, 2010 Print | Email | Share Jan. 1, 2009: Est. population, 72,848,000; Members, 183,672"
So, figures from Church sources state:-
1987 Great Britain 132,810 (worldwide membership 6,394,314)
2011 U.K. 183,672
Leaving aside the definition of 'Great Britain' and 'U.K.' (the difference will be minor in church terms), membership grew by 50k in 14 years. In my days U.K. baptisms were about 3k per year = 42k plus some births and deaths.
Figures above are from church sources except my comment on baptisms. Someone could research and come up with an accurate figure.
Now here is the INTERESTING PART - Address Unknown File.
I used the 1987 membership figure above on purpose because, in that year, I know the U.K. had approximately 100k members in the Address Unknown File. Also, I was told by a COB employee that the worldwide figure was well over a million.
At the time we launched a special missionary effort, using full time missionaries, to locate these 'lost sheep'. These records were often transferred backwards and forwards between wards and church HQ because local units did not want to be judged on low activity due to most members not being locatable.
Historically there had been many suspect baptisms such as the 'baseball baptisms' in the 1960s. Teenage boys were invited to play basketball with the American missionaries and were baptised without really knowing what was going on. Needless to say they never attended church and were lost as soon as they moved from their parents' home.
In the 1970s I was asked to prepare a special report for one of the apostles concerning more 'suspect' baptisms. One lady was offered a new rug by the missionaries to get baptised. Another was baptised in their own home in a bathtub. I personally witnessed the District Leaders going out into the street on the last day of the month, and baptising a man who was drunk. Because of these incidents, which had become widespread, a new rule was implemented. Before baptism a convert had to be introduced to the bishop.
Now, to the crux of the matter. In 1987 there were 132,810 members but 100k of these could not be located leaving only 32k for whom we had reliable addresses and not all these were active.
Question is how many of the current claimed membership of 183k is in the address unknown category? Is it still 100k, or is it more, or have they found them. Reality is those in the file did not consider themselves Mormons and. although very few were reactivated (less than 1%) they usually did not last and knew how to become lost again.
I do not believe the church has excluded this 100k (or whatever the current figure is) from their membership count. Neither do I believe they take off those who resign.
If the 100k is in addition to the 132k (1987) or 183k (2011) it would still mean 40% of the members cannot be found and are still included in the overall 14.7 million.
The activity level of those whose whereabouts are known used to be 50% or more in U.S. with an average of 20% outside the U.S.
So, that's my explanation of how you can claim 14.7 million members when only 3-5 million are 'real' members. This also explains why census data always report such low numbers of Mormons, compared with the claim by the church.